Application of fuzzy logic to explosion risk assessment

Safety and health of workers potentially being at risk from explosive atmospheres are regulated by separate regulations (ANSI/AIHA in USA and ATEX in the European Union). The ANSI/AIHA does not require risk assessment whereas it is compulsory for ATEX. There is no standard method to do that assessment. For that purpose we have applied the explosion Layer of Protection Analysis (ExLOPA), which enables semi-quantitative risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The ExLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA taking into account an explosion accident scenario at workplace. That includes typical variables appropriate for workplace explosion like occurrence of the explosive atmosphere, the presence of effective ignition sources, activity of the explosion prevention and mitigation independent protection layers as well as the severity of consequences. All those variables are expressed in the form of qualitative linguistic categories and relations between them are presented using expert based engineering knowledge, expressed in the form of appropriate set of rules. In this way the category of explosion risk may be estimated by the semi-quantitative analysis. However, this simplified method is connected with essential uncertainties providing over or under estimation of the explosion risk and may not provide real output data.In order to overcome this problem and receive more detailed quantitative results, the fuzzy logic system was applied. In the first stage called fuzzification, all linguistic categories of the variables are mapped by fuzzy sets. In the second stage, the number of relation between all variables of analysis are determined by the enumerative combinatorics and the set of the 810 fuzzy rules “IF-THEN” is received. Each rule enables determination of the fuzzy risk level for a particular accident scenario. In the last stage, called defuzzification, the crisp value of final risk is obtained using a centroid method. The final result of the risk presents a contribution of each risk category represented by the fuzzy sets (A, TA, TNA and NA) and is therefore more precise and readable than the traditional approach producing one category of risk only. Fuzzy logic gives a possibility of better insights into hazards and safety phenomena for each explosion risk scenario. It is not possible to receive such conclusions from the traditional ExLOPA calculation results. However it requires the application of computer-aided analyses which may be partially in conflict with a simplicity of ExLOPA.The practical example provides a comparison between the traditional results obtained by ExLOPA and by fuzzy ExLOPA methods.     

Experimental and simulation studies on the influence of carbon monoxide on explosion characteristics of methane

In underground coal mining, methane explosions often can cause tremendous disasters. In the meantime, carbon monoxide (CO), generated during the process of coal oxidation, may appear in the air. Therefore, the explosion characteristics of the mixture of CH₄ and CO must be investigated to prevent gas explosion accidents in coal mines. We conducted experiments by using a 20-L nearly spherical gas explosion testing device. The software FLACS was used to simulate the explosion of the mixture of CH₄ and CO at various mixing concentrations, and the simulation results corresponded to experimental results. With the increase of CO concentration, both upper and lower explosive limits of CH₄ decreased. On the whole, the explosion characteristic parameters of CH₄ and the mixture are similar. When CH₄ concentration was below the stoichiometric concentration, the addition of CO could promote the intensity of gas explosion; oppositely, excessive CO would inhibit the gas explosion reaction. The inhibitory effects become more significant as the concentration of CH₄ increases.     

Comparison of explosion parameters for Methane–Air mixture in different cylindrical flameproof enclosures

Flameproof enclosures having internal electrical components are generally used in classified hazardous areas such as underground coalmines, refineries and places where explosive gas atmosphere may be formed. Flameproof enclosure can withstand the pressure developed during an internal explosion of an explosive mixture due to electrical arc, spark or hot surface of internal electrical components. The internal electrical component of a flameproof enclosure can form ignition source and also work as an obstacle in the explosion wave propagation. The ignition source position and obstacle in a flameproof enclosure have significant effect on explosion pressure development and rate of explosion pressure rise. To study this effect three cylindrical flameproof enclosures with different diameters and heights are chosen to perform the experiment. The explosive mixture used for the experiment is stoichiometric composition of methane in air at normal atmospheric pressure and temperature.It is observed that the development of maximum explosion pressure (P_max) and maximum rate of explosion pressure rise (dp/dt)_ex in a cylindrical flameproof enclosure are influenced by the position of ignition source, presence of internal metal or non-metal obstacles (component). The severity index, K_G is also calculated for the cylindrical enclosures and found that it is influenced by position of ignition source as well as blockage ratios (BR) of the obstacles in the enclosures.     

Analysis and assessment of a critical event during an underground coal gasification experiment

The main goal of the study presented in this paper was to analyse the mechanisms affecting an Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) process and to identify possible deviations of the system from normal work to limit, or even avoid, losses. The UCG process is one of the most innovative technologies connected with the exploitation of coal deposits that are currently being tested and developed all around the world. It allows the conversion of a coal seam into gas under in situ conditions of high temperature with the use of gasifying agents such as air, oxygen, steam or with a mixture of them.The paper presents the results of the analysis and assessment of a critical event during the process: a dangerous gas accumulation that occurred during an underground coal gasification experiment in the Experimental Mine “Barbara” of the Central Mining Institute (Poland). The UCG experiment using the shaft method is described, together with its monitoring system and the problems that appeared during the process. The application of the Fault Tree Methodology allowed the establishment of the main factors that may lead to the explosion and to present possible scenarios of its occurrence.Moreover, calculations were carried out to evaluate the risk level of explosion for the gas mixture and the minimum level of oxygen in the mixture that is necessary to initiate an explosion. These calculations were based on a modification of the formula proposed by Le Chatelier. During the course of the underground experiment, original information of the process behaviour has been acquired that can be used in the preparation of other UCG experiments in operational mines to guarantee the safety and the stability of the process.     

瓦斯爆炸事故的混沌特性及其控制方法初探

我国煤炭地下开采占全部产量的 96 % ,含瓦斯煤层多 ,高瓦斯矿井和突出矿井占矿井总数的4 4 % ,由瓦斯引发的爆炸事故的伤亡人数占全部矿井事故伤亡总数的 6 5 %。针对我国煤矿安全生产的严峻形势 ,笔者在对瓦斯爆炸事故特性进行分析的基础上 ,应用混沌理论对瓦斯爆炸事故的风险以及控制方法进行初步探讨 ,初步建立了瓦斯爆炸事故混沌特性分析模型 ,对预防和控制瓦斯爆炸事故的发生 ,改善矿井安全生产状况具有指导意义。     

Effects of ignition energy on fire and explosion characteristics of dilute hybrid fuel in ventilation air methane

Deflagration explosions of coal dust clouds and flammable gases are a major safety concern in coal mining industry. Accidental fire and explosion caused by coal dust cloud can impose substantial losses and damages to people and properties in underground coal mines. Hybrid mixtures of methane and coal dust have the potential to reduce the minimum activation energy of a combustion reaction. In this study the Minimum Explosion Concentration (MEC), Over Pressure Rise (OPR), deflagration index for gas and dust hybrid mixtures (K_st) and explosive region of hybrid fuel mixtures present in Ventilation Air Methane (VAM) were investigated. Experiments were carried out according to the ASTM E1226-12 guideline utilising a 20 L spherical shape apparatus specifically designed for this purpose.Resultsobtained from this study have shown that the presence of methane significantly affects explosion characteristics of coal dust clouds. Dilute concentrations of methane, 0.75–1.25%, resulted in coal dust clouds OPR increasing from 0.3 bar to 2.2 bar and boosting the K_st value from 10 bar m s⁻¹ to 25 bar m s⁻¹. The explosion characteristics were also affected by the ignitors’ energy; for instance, for a coal dust cloud concentration of 50 g m⁻³ the OPR recorded was 0.09 bar when a 1 kJ chemical ignitor was used, while, 0.75 bar (OPR) was recorded when a 10 kJ chemical ignitor was used.For the first time, new explosion regions were identified for diluted methane-coal dust cloud mixtures when using 1, 5 and 10 kJ ignitors. Finally, the Le-Chatelier mixing rule was modified to predict the lower explosion limit of methane-coal dust cloud hybrid mixtures considering the energy of the ignitors.     

Ignition of methane–air mixtures by laser heated small particles

Optical technologies have progressed rapidly in the past 15 years. One application of laser technology in underground coal mines currently under evaluation is the remote measurement of explosive methane gas. Federal regulations require that atmospheric monitoring systems used in gassy underground mines where permissible equipment is required shall be intrinsically safe. Mine Safety and Health Administration criteria for the evaluation and testing of intrinsically safe apparatus and associated apparatus contain no specific guidance for optoelectronic components such as diode lasers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health is conducting a study to help provide a scientific basis for developing appropriate safety guidelines for optical equipment in underground coal mines. Results of experiments involving ignition of methane–air mixtures by collections of small heated particles of Pittsburgh seam coal and black iron oxide are reported. The inert but more strongly absorbing iron oxide targets consistently ignited methane–air mixtures at lower powers than the coal targets. Minimum observed igniting powers for laser energy delivered by 200, 400 and 800 μm core fiber optic cables and directed onto iron oxide targets in methane–air atmospheres were 0.6, 1.1, and 2.2 W, respectively. Comparisons with the results of other researchers are made. A thermal layer theoretical approach to describing the process is included as an appendix.     

Internal short circuit and accelerated rate calorimetry tests of lithium-ion cells: Considerations for methane-air intrinsic safety and explosion proof/flameproof protection methods

Researchers with the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) studied the potential for lithium-ion cell thermal runaway from an internal short circuit in equipment for use in underground coal mines. In this third phase of the study, researchers compared plastic wedge crush-induced internal short circuit tests of selected lithium-ion cells within methane (CH₄)-air mixtures with accelerated rate calorimetry tests of similar cells. Plastic wedge crush test results with metal oxide lithium-ion cells extracted from intrinsically safe evaluated equipment were mixed, with one cell model igniting the chamber atmosphere while another cell model did not. The two cells models exhibited different internal short circuit behaviors. A lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO₄) cell model was tolerant to crush-induced internal short circuits within CH₄-air, tested under manufacturer recommended charging conditions. Accelerating rate calorimetry tests with similar cells within a nitrogen purged 353-mL chamber produced ignitions that exceeded explosion proof and flameproof enclosure minimum internal pressure design criteria. Ignition pressures within a 20-L chamber with 6.5% CH₄-air were relatively low, with much larger head space volume and less adiabatic test conditions. The literature indicates that sizeable lithium thionyl chloride (LiSOCl₂) primary (non rechargeable) cell ignitions can be especially violent and toxic. Because ignition of an explosive atmosphere is expected within explosion proof or flameproof enclosures, there is a need to consider the potential for an internal explosive atmosphere ignition in combination with a lithium or lithium-ion battery thermal runaway process, and the resulting effects on the enclosure.     

Experimental study on the minimum explosion concentration of anthracite dust: The roles of O2 mole fraction,inert gas and CH4 addition

The explosion characteristics of anthracite coal dust with/without small amount of CH₄ (1.14 vol %) were investigated by using a 20 L spherical explosion apparatus with an emphasis on the roles of oxygen mole fraction and inert gas. Two methods based on overpressure and combustion duration time were used to determine the minimum explosion concentration (MEC) or the lower explosion limit (LEL) of the pure anthracite coal dust and the hybrid coal-methane mixtures, respectively. The experiment results showed that increasing oxygen mole fraction increases the explosion risk of coal dust: with increasing oxygen mole fraction, the explosion pressure (P_ex) and the rate of explosion pressure rise ((dp/dt)_ex)) increase, while MEC decreases. The explosion risk of anthracite dust was found to be lower after replacing N₂ with CO₂, suggesting that CO₂ has a better inhibition effect on explosion mainly due to its higher specific heat. However, the addition of 1.14% CH₄ moderates the inhibition effect of CO₂ and the promotion effect of O₂ on anthracite dust explosion for some extent, increasing explosion severity and reducing the MEC of anthracite dust. For hybrid anthracite/CH₄ mixture explosions, Barknecht's curve was found to be more accurate and conservative than Chatelier's line, but neither are sufficient from the safety considerations. The experimental results provide a certain help for the explosion prevention and suppression in carbonaceous dust industries.     

Risk assessment method of polyethylene dust explosion based on explosion parameters

The explosion characteristic parameters of polyethylene dust were systematically investigated. The variations in the maximum explosion pressure (P_max), explosion index (K_st), minimum ignition energy (MIE), minimum ignition temperature (MIT), and minimum explosion concentration (MEC) of dust samples with different particle sizes were obtained. Using experimental data, a two-dimensional matrix analysis method was applied to classify the dust explosion severity based on P_max and K_st. Then, a three-dimensional matrix was used to categorize the dust explosion sensitivity based on three factors: MIE, MIT, and MEC. Finally, a two-dimensional matrix model of dust explosion risk assessment was established considering the severity and sensitivity. The model was used to evaluate the explosion risk of polyethylene dust samples with different particle sizes. It was found that the risk level of dust explosion increased with decreasing particle size, which was consistent with the actual results. The risk assessment method can provide a scientific basis for dust explosion prevention in the production of polyethylene.     

Does your facility have a dust problem: Methods for evaluating dust explosion hazards

The hazards of dust explosions prevailing in plants are dependent on a large variety of factors that include process parameters, such as pressure, temperature and flow characteristics, as well as equipment properties, such as geometry layout, the presence of moving elements, dust explosion characteristics and mitigating measures. A good dust explosion risk assessment is a thorough method involving the identification of all hazards, their probability of occurrence and the severity of potential consequences. The consequences of dust explosions are described as consequences for personnel and equipment, taking into account consequences of both primary and secondary events.While certain standards cover all the basic elements of explosion prevention and protection, systematic risk assessments and area classifications are obligatory in Europe, as required by EU ATEX and Seveso II directives. In the United States, NFPA 654 requires that the design of the fire and explosion safety provisions shall be based on a process hazard analysis of the facility, process, and the associated fire or explosion hazards. In this paper, we will demonstrate how applying such techniques as SCRAM (short-cut risk analysis method) can help identify potentially hazardous conditions and provide valuable assistance in reducing high-risk areas. The likelihood of a dust explosion is based on the ignition probability and the probability of flammable dust clouds arising. While all possible ignition sources are reviewed, the most important ones include open flames, mechanical sparks, hot surfaces, electric equipment, smoldering combustion (self-ignition) and electrostatic sparks and discharges. The probability of dust clouds arising is closely related to both process and dust dispersion properties.Factors determining the consequences of dust explosions include how frequently personnel are present, the equipment strength, implemented consequence-reducing measures and housekeeping, as risk assessment techniques demonstrate the importance of good housekeeping especially due to the enormous consequences of secondary dust explosions (despite their relatively low probability). The ignitibility and explosibility of the potential dust clouds also play a crucial role in determining the overall risk.Classes describe both the likelihood of dust explosions and their consequences, ranging from low probabilities and limited local damage, to high probability of occurrence and catastrophic damage. Acceptance criteria are determined based on the likelihood and consequence of the events. The risk assessment techniques also allow for choosing adequate risk reducing measures: both preventive and protective. Techniques for mitigating identified explosions risks include the following: bursting disks and quenching tubes, explosion suppression systems, explosion isolating systems, inerting techniques and temperature control. Advanced CFD tools (DESC) can be used to not only assess dust explosion hazards, but also provide valuable insight into protective measures, including suppression and venting.     

Ignition and explosion parameters of Colombian coals

The explosivity of coal in Colombia is usually determined by chemical analysis based on the volatile ratio. To improve the assessment of the explosivity of those coals that have led to numerous explosions in Colombian mines, 22 coals from the department of Antioquia were analyzed. Flammability characteristic parameters were determined, such as minimum temperatures and energy for ignition and the lower explosive limit. Also explosion data, ie. Pmax and Kmax values were obtained. In addition, the susceptibility to spontaneous combustion was studied by thermogravimetry and differential scanning calorimetry, together with chemical attack with hydrogen peroxide and also measuring the temperature of ignition of flammable volatiles. Finally the effect of particle size and the percentage range of limestone needed for inerting coal under two different granulometries were determined.     

运用本质安全原理预防煤粉爆炸

旨在将本质安全原理与粉尘爆炸(以煤粉爆炸为例)的风险控制联系起来。利用20 L球形爆炸装置的标准测试方法测试煤粉及煤粉-CaCO3混合物的爆炸下限、最大爆炸压力、压力上升速度等爆炸特性。基于本质安全基本原理和试验结果,讨论预防煤粉爆炸的各种基本方法,并重点阐述本质安全原理与粉尘爆炸影响因素、不同的预防方法、过程设备的选择等之间的关系,对已制定的爆炸风险控制措施进行完善和补充。     

基于灰色-物元模型的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估

为了明确风险因素间的作用路径并提出科学可行的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险评估方法,首先基于3类危险源理论梳理分析以往典型瓦斯爆炸案例,识别并提取14个影响因素;然后通过集成灰色系统理论和物元可拓模型,构建灰色-物元评估模型;最后以山西省某煤矿的实际调研数据为例,计算各影响因素的权重和关联函数,梳理风险因素致灾的逻辑关系,得出该矿井2个具体工作面的瓦斯爆炸风险等级。研究表明:1号工作面中的平均瓦斯涌出量、煤尘爆炸指数、采掘机械化水平与2号工作面中的瓦斯体积分数均处于较不安全级别,2个工作面的综合风险等级分别为一般安全与较安全级别。     

The application of kinetics based simulation method in thermal risk prediction of coal

Coal spontaneous combustion is one of the major natural disasters faced in coal mines. The accurate prediction of the thermal risk of coal is of great importance. However, there isn't a widely accepted approach to get the oxidation process of coal that under adiabatic condition or in a specific environment under mine at present. To demonstrate whether the advanced kinetics simulation method could be employed to obtain the accurate oxidation process of coal for determining the coal's thermal risk in the mine design phase and mining phase, DSC experiments were conducted by C80 micro-calorimeter to get the heat behavior of coal, based on which the kinetic parameters can be solved and the oxidation process of coal can be predicted.The results showed that the kinetics based simulation method was successfully used to predict the adiabatic temperature rise process of coal for risk prediction. The deviation between the predicted curve and tested curve that obtained by adiabatic test is small enough to be accepted. Kinetics based simulation method is a promising candidate, instead of adiabatic test, to assess the propensity of coal to spontaneous combustion, which can play an important role in the design phase of the mine and mining area. Moreover, through establishing the heat balance equation of residual coal and with the aid of kinetics based simulation method, the oxidation process of coal that in the suffocation zone of the gob was also accurately predicted. According to the index t₇₀ (the time required for coal to reach 70 °C) and v_min (the lower limit of the advancing speed of the working face) obtained from the predicted curve, the thermal risk of coal was predicted to guide the further adjustment of the advancing speed of the working face, the amount of the injected mud and the determination that whether to add other fire prevention measures. Kinetics based simulation method, be of great practical importance in risk prediction of coal that in the gob, can be also used as a convenient tool to guide the safe production in the actual mining process.     

Ignitability assessment of shredder dusts of refrigerator and the prevention of the dust explosion

Explosibility of polyurethane dusts produced in the recycling process of refrigerator and the ways to prevent the dust explosion were studied. In recent years, cyclopentane is often used as the foaming agent and this produces explosive atmosphere in the shredding process. The minimum explosive concentration of polyurethane dust, influence of coexisting cyclopentane gas on the explosibility, effect of relative humidity on the minimum explosive concentration of polyurethane dusts, the minimum ignition energy, influence of cyclopentane mixture on the explosion severity, etc. were investigated.The minimum explosive dust concentration decreased with the increase of cyclopentane concentration and increased with the increase of relative humidity. The minimum ignition energy was about 11 mJ. The ignition energy decreased with the increase of the cyclopentane gas concentration. The cyclopentane gas concentration up to about 5300 ppm did not influence too much on the explosion index (K_st) and maximum explosion pressure. From these, it would be a good way to increase the relative humidity and to regulate the cyclopentane concentration in the shredding process to prevent the dust explosion hazard.     

Thermal hazard analysis of triacetone triperoxide (TATP) by DSC and GC/MS

Thermal degradation of triacetone triperoxide (TATP) was studied using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). TATP, a potential explosive material, is powerful organic peroxide (OP) that can be synthesized by available chemicals, such as acetone and hydrogen peroxide in the laboratory or industries. The thermokinetic parameters, such as exothermic onset temperature (T₀) and heat of decomposition (ΔH_d), were determined by DSC tests. The gas products from thermal degradation of TATP were identified using GC/MS technique.In this study, H₂O₂ was mixed with propanone (acetone) and H₂SO₄ catalysis that produced TATP. The T₀ of TATP was determined to be 40 °C and E_a was calculated to be 65 kJ/mol. A thermal decomposition peak of H₂O₂ was analyzed by DSC and two thermal decomposition peaks of H₂O₂/propanone were determined. Therefore, H₂O₂/propanone mixture was applied to mix acid that was discovered a thermal decomposition peak (as TATP) in this study. According to risk assessment and analysis methodologies, risk assessment of TATP for the environmental and human safety issue was evaluated as 2-level of hazard probability rating (P) and 6-level of severity of consequences ratings (S). Therefore, the result of risk assessment is 12-point and was evaluated as “Undesirable” that should be enforced the effect of control method to reduce the risk.     

埋地油罐事故伤害范围模拟评价

分析埋地油罐可能发生的火灾爆炸事故,建立事故模拟模型,模拟爆炸物质完全燃烧的质量依据化学计量浓度确定,事故伤害范围的计算用G.M莱克霍夫在砂质土壤中爆炸的冲击波计算方法。对50 m3埋地油罐模拟,油蒸气形成爆炸性混合气体爆炸伤害范围较大,安全范围与《汽车加油加气站设计与施工规范》中相关规定相符合。模拟方法用于埋地储罐的定量安全评价,为罐区选址、建设、安全距离确定及安全预案制定提供参考。     

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故隐患及风险的表征方法

为治理煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故隐患,管控其风险大小,基于证据对瓦斯爆炸事故隐患进行了系统辨识,利用逻辑图分析了隐患之间的耦合关系和风险演化路径;从事件发生的可能性、事件自身的严重性以及受体的暴露程度3个方面对瓦斯爆炸风险进行表征,并提出三维风险矩阵对事故风险进行分级评价。该方法可以为瓦斯爆炸事故隐患辨识、风险分析、风险评价以及设计事故预防措施提供借鉴。