“省公顷”下渭河干流甘肃段生态安全评价及预测

摸清流域生态需求和生态供给是流域生态治理和促进其高质量发展的基础。文中应用改进生态足迹法对2009—2018年渭河干流甘肃段生态足迹和生态承载力进行核算,并运用GM（1,1）模型对流域未来的生态供需趋势进行预测。结果显示,2009—2018年渭河干流甘肃段生态足迹和生态承载力呈波动下降趋势,生态足迹下降2.26%,下降趋势低于生态承载力的4.18%;生态赤字以每年0.58%的速率波动减小。如果继续当前的发展模式,那么预计到2028年,生态赤字较2018年降低16.27%,流域生态安全状况将得到缓解。     

北京市城市道路交通噪声的灰色预测

以北京市1991~2002年城市道路交通噪声监测数据为基础,运用灰色系统理论,建立了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,并采用残差、均方差比值、小误差概率检验等3种办法对所建模型的拟合精度进行了检验.结果表明,此模型精度为一级灰色预测模型.预测精度较高,平均拟合偏差为0.40%.对2003~2005年噪声的预测精度平均高达99.9%.利用常规GM(1,1)模型、新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型和多维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型等三种预测模型对本市未来3年(2006~2008年)的城市道路交通噪声进行了预测.     

灰色模型在岩溶地下水水质预测中的应用研究

运用灰色理论建立水质预测模型,通过对水质指标拟合值与实测值差异性分析,判断模型精密度,并预测山东省东阿县下马头水源地未来2年的水质变化趋势,结果表明:在4项水质指标预测模型中,总硬度、氟化物指标的GM(1,1)时间响应预测模型拟合结果较好;溶解性总固体、硝酸盐指标的GM(1,1)时间响应预测模型精密度均为3级,不适合指标的预测;未来2年下马头水源地岩溶地下水水质良好。     

灰色系统的GM(1,1)模型在地表水COD浓度预测中的应用

本文试用灰色系统中的GM(1,1)模型,对某地1982年～1989年地表水—监测断面COD浓度变化进行建模预测,旨在为预测地表水污染变化找到一条准确适用的方法.     

基于MATLAB的灰色模型在广州市降尘预测中的应用

用MATLAB语言将灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型,从建模到模型的检验过程编制成一个普适程序。将该程序应用于广州市降尘量的预测分析,结果令人满意。     

灰色系统GM（1,1）模型在城市地下水总硬度预测中的应用

应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,对地下水中总硬度的变化作了预测.检验结果表明,该模型精度较高,是一种较好的预测方法.     

灰色理论及其模型在北京典型城市区域声环境研究中的应用

以北京市某典型区域作为研究对象，在收集大量相关资料与实测历史噪声数据的基础上，对研究区域内的声环境质量影响因素进行灰色关联度分析，并运用灰色理论建立GM（1,1）模型进行预测。结果表明，影响城市区域声环境质量因素从大到小的排序依次为：机动车辆﹥常住人口数量﹥平均车流量﹥地区生产总值﹥城市道路桥梁﹥基础设施投资﹥治理噪声环保投资；以研究区域内噪声污染实测历史数据建立的GM（1,1）模型精度符合要求标准，根据GM（1,1）模型预测北京市“十二五”期间声环境质量达标且有轻微下降趋势。     

新乡市城市声环境质量灰色预测

本文对“十三五”期间新乡市城市环境噪声污染现状及趋势进行分析。并采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测新乡市未来5 a城市噪声环境质量，灰色关联分析得出有效治理对策。结果表明：经模型预测新乡市2021—2025年城市区域噪声、功能区噪声(昼间、夜间)等效声级呈小幅下降趋势，道路交通噪声等效声级呈上升趋势，级别由“较好”变为“一般”,污染防控方面压力较大，需加大监管力度。通过交通噪声影响因子关联性分析得出应从人口增加、机动车数量、城镇化扩张等方面制定有效防治措施。     

目标考核视角下的城市生态文明建设综合评价

在阐述生态文明建设内涵的基础上,从资源利用、经济发展、国土空间布局、生态环境保护和社会进步5个方面选取30项指标,运用综合指数法开展深圳市生态文明建设评价,并借助灰色系统模型GM(1,1)预测其发展趋势。研究表明,深圳市生态文明建设成果逐步凸显,除国土空间布局对生态文明建设贡献呈下降趋势外,其余4个方面对其贡献均逐步提高;地方政府生态文明建设考核压力逐步趋缓。预测显示深圳市生态文明建设得分持续小幅度增加,生态文明建设得到持续加强。当前生态文明建设重点在于优化国土空间布局,需要加强耕地保护、调整土地利用结构和控制人口密度。     

泾河流域生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测

运用 InVEST模型和PLUS模型动态模拟泾河流域未来不同发展情景下碳储量变化情况,对当前十年及未来十年土地利用类型变化及其对碳储量的影响进行评估。结果表明：2030年经济发展和生态发展情景下,泾河流域碳储量分别为1.068×109t和1.082×109t,与2020年相比,经济发展情景下碳储量减少9×106t,生态发展情景下碳储量增加5×106t。控制草地、林地、湿地、水域退化和建设用地扩张可以有效提高生态系统碳储量;基于生态发展情景下的土地利用方式更有助于提升泾河流域碳汇能力,实现区域可持续发展。     

我国沙尘暴灾害及其治理对策初步研究

分析研究了沙尘暴的成因、时空分布、发展趋势及造成的灾害，结合国外经验提出了我国治理的对策建议。     

新疆室内环境污染监测和治理工作现状与建议

针对目前室内环境监测工作出现的种种问题,就如何规范的开展室内环境监测工作,更好地为社会提供真实、准确、有效的监测数据,本文提出相关的探讨。     

太原市冬、夏季醛酮化合物污染特征及来源分析

针对太原市空气臭氧污染较为严重的问题,开展臭氧主要前体物醛酮化合物质量浓度及其变化规律研究.利用2,4-二硝基苯肼固相吸附/高效液相色谱方法,通过对太原市2019年冬季和夏季大气的醛酮化合物进行分析,发现太原市冬季总醛酮化合物的平均质量浓度为13μg/m3,低于夏季的27μg/m3.其中甲醛、乙醛和丙酮质量浓度最高,且...     

Dissipation and residue of metalaxyl and cymoxanil in pepper and soil

A simple and accurate method of determining metalaxyl and cymoxanil in pepper and soil was developed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography–photodiode array detection. The limits of detection were 0.015 mg/kg for metalaxyl and 0.003 mg/kg for cymoxanil. The limits of quantification were 0.05 mg/kg for metalaxyl in pepper and soil as well as 0.01 mg/kg for cymoxanil in pepper and soil. Recoveries of pepper and soil were investigated at three spiking levels and ranged within 77.52 to 102.05 % for metalaxyl and 87.15 to 103.21 % for cymoxanil, with relative standard deviations below 9.30 %. For field experiments, the half-lives of metalaxyl were 3.2 to 3.9 days in pepper and 4.4 to 9.5 days in soil at the three experimental locations in China. At harvest, pepper samples were found to contain metalaxyl and cymoxanil well below the maximum residue limit MRLs of the European Union (EU) following the recommended dosage and the interval of 21 days after last application.     

Disembodied and Disembedded? The Social and Economic Implications of Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity

The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management. This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge; and the management of information. In this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses.     

Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity: Co-Networks and Networking

Canada responded to the Global Biodiversity Convention by completing the Canadian Biodiversity Strategy in 1995. At the same time, Environment Canada also completed a national Science Assessment on Biodiversity. During this period, the Smithsonian Institution, in partnership with Parks and Environment Canada, initiated the implementation of a global biodiversity monitoring program in Canada. Under the auspices of the United Nations Man and the Biosphere Program, the SI/MAB monitoring protocols and plots have spread across Canada at an unprecedented rate. National champions in the science and educational sectors, working within an inter-disciplinary ecological framework, have guided the development, education, quality control and sharing of atmosphere-biodiversity observations electronically.Atmospheric-Biodiversity Networks and Networking have traditionally operated within separate mandates with little degree of integration. Air-Bio Networks were designed within an integrated framework to better understand the atmospheric stress on biodiversity and the adaptation actions, nationally and regionally. Detailed examples of the cumulative effects of climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, acid deposition, ground-level ozone, suspended particulate matter and hazardous air pollutants on biodiversity will be discussed using a Southern Ontario case study. In addition, recommendations will be presented for future paired SI/MAB plots, linked networks and networking for adaptation within the context of climate, chemical and ecological gradients.     

Determination and study on dissipation and residue of bismerthiazol and its metabolite in Chinese cabbage and soil

A simple and accurate method for the determination of bismerthiazol and its metabolite 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole was developed in Chinese cabbage and soil by high-performance liquid chromatography-diode array detection in this study. The limits of detection were 0.06 mg/kg for bismerthiazol and 0.03 mg/kg for 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole, respectively. Recoveries of cabbage and soil were investigated at three spiking levels and were in the range of 84.0–96.0 % for bismerthiazol and 71.0–74.6 % for 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole, with relative standard deviations below 7.0 %. For field experiments, the half-life of bismerthiazol was 2.4–2.5 days in Chinese cabbage and 2.5–4.8 days in soil at the two experimental locations in China. Dissipation residues of 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole were lower than 0.72 mg/kg. Terminal residues of bismerthiazol and its metabolite were less than 3.0 and 0.3 mg/kg in Chinese cabbage, respectively. No bismerthiazol or metabolite residues were detected in soil on days 5, 7, 10, and 14 after the last spraying at the two dosage levels.     

环境监理与环境管理的区别与联系

阐述了环境监理与环境管理的关系，指出了以制度和程序规范两者的分工与合作可充分发挥环境监理在环境管理中的作用     

废旧干电池的环境污染防治及回收利用

介绍了各种干电池的基本化学组成，分析了废旧干电池污染环境的主要途径及对人类的危害，并就回收利用问题提出建议。     

Residues and dissipation of trifloxystrobin and its metabolite in tomatoes and soil

A simple residue analytical method using the quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS) procedure for the determination of trifloxystrobin and its metabolite trifloxystrobin acid (CGA321113) in tomato and soil was developed using high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS). The limits of detection were 0.0005 mg/kg for trifloxystrobin and 0.001 mg/kg for trifloxystrobin acid, respectively. The average recoveries in tomato and soil ranged from 73–99 % for trifloxystrobin and 75–109 % for trifloxystrobin acid, with relative standard deviations below 15 %. The method was then used to study the dissipation and residues in tomato and soil. The dissipation half-lives of trifloxystrobin in tomato were 2.9 days (Beijing) and 5.4 days (Shandong), while in soil were 1.9 days (Beijing) and 3.0 days (Shandong), respectively. The final results showed that the major residue compound was trifloxystrobin in tomato whereas it was its metabolite, trifloxystrobin acid, in soil. The final residues of total trifloxystrobin (including trifloxystrobin acid) were below the EU maximum residue limit of 0.5 mg kg^?1 in tomato 3 days after the treatment.