Modeling Past and Future Acidification of Swedish Lakes

Decades of acid deposition have caused acidification of lakes in Sweden. Here we use data for 3000 lakes to run the acidification model MAGIC and estimate historical and future acidification. The results indicate that beginning in about 1920 a progressively larger number of lakes in Sweden fell into the category of “not naturally acidified” (∆pH > 0.4). The peak in acidification was reached about 1985; since then many lakes have recovered in response to lower levels of acid deposition. Further recovery from acidification will occur by the year 2030 given implementation of agreed legislation for emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. But the number of catchments with soils being depleted in base cations will increase slightly. MAGIC-reconstructed history of acidification of lakes in Sweden agrees well with information on fish populations. Future acidification of Swedish lakes can be influenced by climate change as well as changes in forest harvest practices.     

Caesium-137 in Perch in Swedish Lakes after Chernobyl-present situation, relationships and trends

The Chernobyl accident, and the general acidification of Swedish water systems, form the base for this project. The aims of the work have been to present results on the linkage between the concentration of Cs-137 in fish, lake load of Cs and lake characteristics, to give a preliminary prognosis on the recovery, and to put the results within a wider framework of environmental hazard analysis. A broad set of data on limnology, morphometry and drainage area conditions from 41 lakes were collected during 1986 and 1987. Cs-137 was determined in 1 + perch (Cs-pe, 1-year-old perch), water, material collected by sediment traps and from surficial sediments. The main results are as follows. The average value of Cs-pe for all lakes has dropped from 9800 Bq kg(-1) (wet) to 5040 between the 2 years. Generally, the decrease is between 5 and 90%. We have tested if any factor(s) could be specifically linked to this decrease-no such factors have been found. The concentrations of Cs in sediment traps have, on average, decreased by 80%. Very high correlations exist between Cs-pe and the caesium load as determined from the sediment traps. Between 1 and 10% (mean 3.9%) of the initial fall-out deposition to the drainage area was transported from land to water during June to August 1986. The variation in initial fall-out deposition explains 65-69% of the variability in Cs-pe; the degree of explanation (= coefficient of determination, r2) increases to about 85% if one also takes into account the lake water hardness and totP. A map showing with lakes likely to have 1 + perch with higher mean Cs-concentrations than 1500 Bq kg(-1) wet is presented. Between 4000 and 7000 lakes in Sweden appear to have Cs-pe higher than 1500 Bq kg(-1) wet, figures which emphasize the serious impact of the Chernobyl accident on the environmental conditions in Sweden.     

Terrestrial ecosystem recovery--modelling the effects of reduced acidic inputs and increased inputs of sea-salts induced by global change

The reduced emissions of acidifying sulfur and nitrogen in Europe since the late 1970s will be further reduced when the Gothenburg protocol is fully implemented by 2010. Here we address the consequences for the recovery of acidified terrestrial ecosystems using the acidification model MAGIC applied to 3 large-scale "clean rain" experiments, the so-called roof experiments at Risdalsheia, Norway; G?rdsj?n, Sweden, and Klosterhede, Denmark. Implementation of the Gothenburg protocol will initiate recovery of the soils at all 3 sites by rebuilding base saturation. The rate of recovery is small and base saturation increases less than 5% over the next 30 years. A climate-induced increase in storm severity will increase the sea-salt input to the ecosystems. This will provide additional base cations to the soils and more than double the rate of the recovery, but also lead to strong acid pulses following high sea-salt inputs as the deposited base cations exchange with the acidity stored in the soil. Future recovery of soils and runoff at acidified catchments will thus depend on the amount and rate of reduction of acid deposition, and in the case of systems near the coast, the frequency and intensity of sea-salt episodes as well.     

Nitrogen saturation induced during winter by experimental NH4NO3 addition to a forested catchment

To investigate the potential risk of 'nitrogen saturation' in Scandinavian boreal forests, the authors are experimentally adding 30-50 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) as NH4NO3 in precipitation to an entire 0.52-ha 80-year-old spruce forested catchment at G?rdsj?n, near Gothenburg on the Swedish west coast. NO3 concentrations in runoff increased from 0 to about 7 microeq liter(-1) (maximum pulse of 43 microeq liter(-1)). The increase occurred in winter; during the April-October growing season, NO3 concentrations were very low. The speed of the response suggests that these forests are already close to saturation.     

Mercury in fish in Swedish lakes

The aim of this work has been to try to obtain a picture of the past, present and future mercury situation in fish in Swedish lakes, to make an estimate of the number of lakes threatened by 'blacklisting', and to see if the data can be used to reveal anything about the impact of liming on the Hg content in pike. The register contains a broad set of data from 1456 lakes. The main results are as follows. Trend analyses indicate that the Hg content in 1-kg pike seems to increase with time. This is interesting since there has been a significant decrease in mercury emissions from Swedish industries during the last two decades. High Hg contents in 1-kg pike appear in a very characteristic pattern, linked to specific sources of Hg emission. The data indicate that old Swedish 'sins' are still causing a lot of problems. The factors governing the leakage of Hg from soils to water ought to be a very important topic for further studies. The Hg content in pike shows the highest correlation with the following parameters: Hg in surficial sediments, pH, distance from point source and water hardness, lake water alkalinity and conductivity, water retention time, size of drainage area and lake surface. A formula which provides the best possible degree of explanation (r2 = 0.78) has been derived. At present there are about 250 lakes 'blacklisted' in Sweden due to high Hg content in fish. Our data show that there are at least 9400 lakes that ought to be 'blacklisted' today. A successful liming operation will alter the chemical conditions in lakes and also decrease the Hg content in fish.     

Future distribution of Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under climate change: effects of temperature, lake size and species interactions

Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961-1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95?% of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73?% of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.     

An investigation of the impact of afforestation on stream-water chemistry in the Loch Dee catchment, SW Scotland

The impact of conifer afforestation on stream-water chemistry was investigated in the acidified catchment of Loch Dee, SW Scotland. Long-term trends in stream-water chemistry were evaluated during a period of forest growth from age 6 to 17 years. A significant increase was observed for pH (0.2 units) and a significant decline for aluminium (0.05 mg litre(-1)), sulphate (1.2 mg litre(-1)) and nitrate (0.02 mg litre(-1)) concentrations. The long-term decrease in stream-water acidity was ascribed to the marked reductions in sulphur depositions during the 1970s and early 1980s. There was no evidence that this response had been attenuated by afforestation, the improvements in stream-water chemistry being of a similar magnitude to those recorded in nearby moorland lochs and exceeding that in an adjacent moorland-catchment stream. The lack of a clear forest acidification effect is consistent with deposition-model estimates which show the increased scavenging of occult and dry deposition by the growing forest to be small at this site (相似文献   

Acidification Remediation Alternatives: Exploring the Temporal Dimension with Cost Benefit Analysis

Acidification of soils and surface waters caused by acid deposition is still a major problem in southern Scandinavia, despite clear signs of recovery. Besides emission control, liming of lakes, streams, and wetlands is currently used to ameliorate acidification in Sweden. An alternative strategy is forest soil liming to restore the acidified upland soils from which much acidified runoff originates. This cost–benefit analysis compared these liming strategies with a special emphasis on the time perspective for expected benefits. Benefits transfer was used to estimate use values for sport ffishing and nonuse values in terms of existence values. The results show that large-scale forest soil liming is not socioeconomically profitable, while lake liming is, if it is done efficiently—in other words, if only acidified surface waters are treated. The beguiling logic of “solving” an environmental problem at its source (soils), rather than continuing to treat the symptoms (surface waters), is thus misleading.     

Forest biomass accumulation is an important source of acidity to forest soils: Data from Swedish inventories of forests and soils 1955 to 2010

The input of acidity to Swedish forest soils through forestry between 1955 and 2010 is compared with the acid input from atmospheric deposition. Depending on region, input of acidity from forestry was the minor part (25–45%) of the study period’s accumulated acid input but is now the dominating source (140–270 mol_c ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). The net uptake of cations due to the increase in standing forest biomass, ranged between 35 and 45% of the forestry related input of acidity while whole-tree harvesting, introduced in the late 1990s, contributed only marginally (< 2%). The geographical gradient in acid input is reflected in the proportion of acidified soils in Sweden but edaphic properties contribute to variations in acidification sensitivity. It is important to consider the acid input due to increases in standing forest biomass in acidification assessments since it is long-term and quantitatively important.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01540-y.     

Optimizing best management practices to control anthropogenic sources of atmospheric phosphorus deposition to inland lakes

Excessive phosphorus loading to inland freshwater lakes around the globe has resulted in nuisance plant growth along the waterfronts, degraded habitat for cold-water fisheries, and impaired beaches, marinas, and waterfront property. The direct atmospheric deposition of phosphorus can be a significant contributing source to inland lakes. The atmospheric deposition monitoring program for Lake Simcoe, Ontario, indicates roughly 20% of the annual total phosphorus load (2010–2014 period) is due to direct atmospheric deposition (both wet and dry deposition) on the lake. This novel study presents a first-time application of the genetic algorithm (GA) methodology to optimize the application of best management practices (BMPs) related to agriculture and mobile sources to achieve atmospheric phosphorus reduction targets and restore the ecological health of the lake. The novel methodology takes into account the spatial distribution of the emission sources in the airshed, the complex atmospheric long-range transport and deposition processes, cost and efficiency of the popular management practices, and social constraints related to the adoption of BMPs. The optimization scenarios suggest that the optimal overall capital investment of approximately $2M, $4M, and $10M annually can achieve roughly 3, 4, and 5 tonnes reduction in atmospheric P load to the lake, respectively. The exponential trend indicates diminishing returns for the investment beyond roughly $3M per year and that focusing much of this investment in the upwind, nearshore area will significantly impact deposition to the lake. The optimization is based on a combination of the lowest cost, most beneficial and socially acceptable management practices that develops a science-informed promotion of implementation/BMP adoption strategy. The geospatial aspect to the optimization (i.e., proximity and location with respect to the lake) will help land managers to encourage the use of these targeted best practices in areas that will most benefit from the phosphorus reduction approach.

Implications: Excessive phosphorus loading to inland freshwater lakes around the globe has resulted in nuisance plant growth along the waterfronts, degraded habitat for cold water fisheries, and impaired beaches, marinas and waterfront property. This novel study presents a first-time application of the Genetic Algorithm methodology to optimize the application of best management practices related to agriculture and mobile sources to achieve atmospheric phosphorus reduction targets and restore the ecological health of the lake. The novel methodology takes into account the spatial distribution of the emission sources in the airshed, the complex atmospheric long-range transport and deposition processes, cost and efficiency of the popular management practices and social constraints related to the adoption of BMPs.     

Reduced European emissions of S and N--effects on air concentrations, deposition and soil water chemistry in Swedish forests

Changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution in Swedish forests have been assessed in relation to European emission reductions, based on measurements in the Swedish Throughfall Monitoring Network. Measurements were analysed over 20 years with a focus on the 12-year period 1996 to 2008. Air concentrations of SO₂ and NO₂, have decreased. The SO₄-deposition has decreased in parallel with the European emission reductions. Soil water SO₄-concentrations have decreased at most sites but the pH, ANC and inorganic Al-concentrations indicated acidification recovery only at some of the sites. No changes in the bulk deposition of inorganic nitrogen could be demonstrated. Elevated NO₃-concentrations in the soil water occurred at irregular occasions at some southern sites. Despite considerable air pollution emission reductions in Europe, acidification recovery in Swedish forests soils is slow. Nitrogen deposition to Swedish forests continues at elevated levels that may lead to leaching of nitrate to surface waters.     

Dynamic modelling of recovery from acidification of lakes in Killarney Park,Ontario, Canada

During much of the 1900s, the lakes in Killarney Provincial Park have been exposed to high levels of acid deposition due to sulfur emissions from the nearby metal smelters in Sudbury. The sulfur emissions from this large point source have decreased to about 10% of what they were in the 1960s. Lake water quality in Killarney Park has greatly changed in response to reduced emissions, with noticeable declines in sulfate, aluminum and calcium concentrations. Here we apply the dynamic acidification model MAGIC to 3 lakes in Killarney Park. The lakes, which have different buffering capacities and response times, were selected to represent fast, intermediate and slow recovery from acidification. The model was calibrated to match observed data for the lakes and 4 different forecast scenarios for future sulfur deposition reductions were applied. The results indicate that there is still a large potential for improvement in the water quality in Killarney. The recovery time for the different lakes varies greatly. For the lake having the slowest response time several decades are needed for the chemistry to stabilize after implementation of deposition reductions.     

Modelling future soil chemistry at a highly polluted forest site at Istebna in Southern Poland using the "SAFE" model

The multi-layer dynamic model SAFE was applied to the forested catchment Istebna (Southern Poland), to study recovery from acidification. Environmental pollution in the area has been historically high. The model uses data from an intensive monitoring plot established in 1999 in a spruce stand, which was planted in 1880. Observations showed that the soil was depleted of base cations. The measured base saturation in 1999 was between 5 and 8% in the different soil layers. Model predictions assuming full implementation of the UNECE 1999 Gothenburg Protocol and present day base cation deposition show that the base saturation will slowly increase to 20% by 2100. Despite large emission reductions, Istebna still suffers from the very high loads of acidifying input during the past decades. Soil recovery depends on future emissions especially on base cation deposition. The recovery will be even slower if the base cation deposition decreases further.     

Acid rain and nitrogen deposition in a sub-tropical watershed (Piracicaba): ecosystem consequences

High levels of wet N and acidic deposition were measured in southeast Brazil. In this study we addressed the sensitivity of water bodies and soils to acidification and N deposition in the Piracicaba River basin (12,400 km2). Average acid neutralization capacity (ANC) at 23 river sampling sites varied from 350 to 1800 microeq l(-1). Therefore, rivers and streams in the Piracicaba basin are well buffered, if the lower limit of 200 microeq l(-1) is assumed as an indication of poorly buffered waters. ANC is increased by untreated wastewaters discarded into rivers and streams of the region. Average NO3 concentrations varied from 20 to 70 microeq l(-1). At the most polluted river sites, NO3 concentration is not highest, however, probably due to NO3 reduction and denitrification. Most of the nitrogen in streams is also provided by wastewaters and not by wet deposition. The majority of the soils in the basin, however, are acidic with a low base cation content and high aluminum concentration. Therefore, soils in this basin are poorly buffered and, in areas of forest over sandy soils, acidification may be a problem.     

A carbon budget of a small humic lake: an example of the importance of lakes for organic matter cycling in boreal catchments

Lakes play an important role in the cycling of organic matter in the boreal landscape, due to the frequently high extent of bacterial respiration and the efficient burial of organic carbon in sediments. Based on a mass balance approach, we calculated a carbon budget for a small humic Swedish lake in the vicinity of a potential final repository for radioactive waste in Sweden, in order to assess its potential impact on the environmental fate of radionuclides associated with organic matter. We found that the lake is a net heterotrophic ecosystem, subsidized by organic carbon inputs from the catchment and from emergent macrophyte production. The largest sink of organic carbon is respiration by aquatic bacteria and subsequent emission of carbon.dioxide to the atmosphere. Although the annual burial of organic carbon in the sediment is a comparatively small sink, it results in the build-up of the largest carbon pool in the lake. Hence, lakes may simultaneously disperse and accumulate organic-associated radionuclides leaking from a final repository.     

Pre-industrial atmospheric pollution: was it important for the pH of acid-sensitive Swedish lakes?

Acid rain has caused extensive surface water acidification in Sweden since the mid-20th century. Sulfur emissions from fossil-fuel burning and metal production were the main sources of acid deposition. In the public consciousness, acid deposition is strongly associated with the industrial period, in particular the last 50 years. However, studies of lake-water pH development and atmospheric pollution, based on analyses of lake sediment deposits, have shown the importance of a long-term perspective. Here, we present a conceptual argument, using the sediment record, that large-scale atmospheric acid deposition has impacted the environment since at least Medieval times. Sulfur sources were the pre-industrial mining and metal industries that produced silver, lead and other metals from sulfide ores. This early excess sulfur deposition in southern Sweden did not cause surface water acidification; on the contrary, it contributed to alkalization, i.e. increased pH and productivity of the lakes. Suggested mechanisms are that the excess sulfur caused enhanced cation exchange in catchment soils, and that it altered iron-phosphorus cycling in the lakes, which released phosphorus and increased lake productivity.     

Future Distribution of Arctic Char <Emphasis Type="Italic">Salvelinus alpinus</Emphasis> in Sweden under Climate Change: Effects of Temperature,Lake Size and Species Interactions

Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961–1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95 % of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73 % of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.     

Modeling the impacts of the Finnish Climate Strategy on air pollution

This paper presents an example of how air pollution models can be used together with energy system models to study the impacts of climate change mitigation strategies on air pollution. As many mitigation measures of greenhouse gases (GHGs) affect the use of fossil fuels in energy production, they can have important side-effects on other air pollution problems. This paper studies on a national scale the impacts of the planned GHG reduction measures on multiple air pollution problems in Finland, concentrating on acidification of forest soils and lakes, tropospheric ozone levels harmful to humans and vegetation and on emissions of fine particles. The air pollutant emission scenarios with the alternative energy choices are calculated for about 200 large point sources, assuming the present emission limit legislation. Disperse emissions are treated at municipality level. The analysis extends to the year 2020. The implementation of the Kyoto protocol in Finland would induce notable reductions of multiple air pollutant emissions and related environmental impacts. A 6–11% reduction in ecosystems threatened by acidification in Southern and Central Finland would be achieved with the Finnish Climate Strategy alone. Substantial improvement in ozone levels would be reached in all scenarios compared to the current situation. The measures of the Climate Strategy could reduce the harmful ozone levels by a further 3%. The measures of the Climate Strategy would not significantly affect the primary particulate emissions in the future because the emissions from large power plants are already effectively controlled. Contrary to the fuel choices of the large units, expanded use of small-scale wood combustion can result in considerable increases of both fine particulate and VOC emissions.     

Environmental effects of one thousand years of copper production at Falun, central Sweden

Copper production in Falun, central Sweden, has emitted sulfur dioxide (SO2) and metals to the air during at least 1000 years. Emissions peaked in the 17th century when Falun produced 2/3 of the world's copper supply. This area offers unique opportunities to study long-term effects of acid deposition and metal pollution, including recovery following the three centuries of decreasing SO2 and metal deposition. Here we present a 1000-yr perspective on local emissions of SO2, estimated air concentrations and dry deposition of SO2, as well as results on acidification and metal pollution of soils and lakes. Despite a long period when deposition of SO2 exceeded the critical load, soil acidification is limited to the most heavily polluted area 12 km NW and SE from the mine. According to diatom analyses of take sediments, only 8 of 14 lakes have become acidified (0.4-0.8 pH units). None of these lakes show recovery from acidification, probably due to large amounts of sulfate still accumulated in the soils and changes in land use.     

Charge density of total organic carbon in Finnish lakes

Ion balance calculations were used to estimate the charge density of total organic carbon (TOC) and for calibrating the model of Oliver et al. (1983) for Finnish lakes. The database consisted of samples collected in the autumn of 1987 from 955 randomly selected lakes covering the whole country. Organic anion concentrations were estimated as the difference between Sigma cations and Sigma inorganic anions. The charge density of TOC was estimated by dividing the organic anion concentration by TOC. The median charge density was 7.5 microeq (mg TOC)(-1). In lakes with pH values lower than 4.5 the average charge density was 5.2 microeq (mg TOC)(-1) and it increased to 10.3 microeq (mg TOC)(-1) in lakes with pH higher than or equal to 7.0. The calibrated model explained 79% of the observed variability in organic anion concentration. The value for the total amount of acidic functional groups per mol organic carbon in the model of Oliver et al. (1983) was slightly higher compared to the Finnish calibration. At pH values higher than 4.4 the Finnish calibration gives lower organic anion concentrations compared to the model of Oliver et al. (1983).