Biogeochemical Control of the Coupled CO2–O2 System of the Baltic Sea: A Review of the Results of Baltic-C

Past, present, and possible future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base and oxygen balances were studied using different numerical experiments and a catchment–sea model system in several scenarios including business as usual, medium scenario, and the Baltic Sea Action Plan. New CO₂ partial pressure data provided guidance for improving the marine biogeochemical model. Continuous CO₂ and nutrient measurements with high temporal resolution helped disentangle the biogeochemical processes. These data and modeling indicate that traditional understandings of the nutrient availability–organic matter production relationship do not necessarily apply to the Baltic Sea. Modeling indicates that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, increased mineralization and biological production will amplify the seasonal surface pH cycle. The direction and magnitude of future pH changes are mainly controlled by atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Apart from decreasing pH, we project a decreasing calcium carbonate saturation state and increasing hypoxic area.     

Concentrations and profiles of PCDD/Fs in sediments of major Polish rivers and the Gdansk Basin--Baltic Sea

The present state of contamination of bottom sediments in southern part of the Baltic Sea with PCDD/Fs was compared to the findings made for the north-western and eastern Baltic Sea coastal areas of Finland, Sweden and Denmark. The extent of the study area--from marine the Gdańsk Basin, the lower Oder and Vistula Rivers up till W?oc?awek reservoir--allowed to obtain the sediment samples with diversified properties. Dioxin's concentrations in sediments examined in the Polish costal area allows us to evaluate this zone as relatively less contaminated. Higher dioxin concentration has been found in Wloclawek Dam Reservoir. Differences in congener patterns and temporal changes in marine sediment profiles were examined. The highest concentrations of tetra- and penta-congeners still remain in the surface layer of Gdansk Deep, whereas the decline in concentrations of these most toxic congeners, have been observed in the sediments from some other parts of the Baltic coast. Excess concentration of dioxins in sediments has a great impact on human being due to special ability of accumulation in the trophic chain as well as in water (fishes) and land (milk, meat).     

Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea

Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change projections for Baltic shore ecosystems are bound to be highly speculative. Societal responses to climate change in the Baltic coastal ecosystems should have an ecosystem approach and match the biophysical realities of the Baltic Sea area. Knowledge about ecosystem processes and their responses to a changing climate should be integrated within the decision process, both locally and nationally, in order to increase the awareness of, and to prepare for climate change impacts in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.     

Dioxin concentrations in sediments of the Baltic Sea--a survey of existing data

Recent survey results for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs, dioxins) in Baltic Sea sediments from Finland, Sweden and Denmark were merged with previously published Baltic Sea data. Regional distribution of concentration levels, differences in congener patterns, and temporal changes in sediment profiles were examined. One of the main objectives was to study if any major point sources for different PCDD/F congeners could be identified on a regional scale, based on sediment records. The survey confirmed the impact of chlorophenol production derived highly chlorinated PCDF-congeners on the total toxicity in sediments in the Gulf of Finland near the Kymijoki river estuary. Signatures of other point sources or combined point sources pertinent to specific industry branches or particular production processes (such as pulp bleaching, vinyl chloride production, thermal processes) may be discerned. However, the findings did not support any of the known point sources significantly influencing those congeners that are most abundant in Baltic herring and salmon. Instead, regional distributions in the Baltic Sea indicate that atmospheric deposition may act as a major source for those congeners and especially for 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF. There were clear indications of declines in levels in sediment in some areas, but generally the levels of highly chlorinated PCDD/Fs on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland were still high when compared with other areas of the Baltic Sea. Major areas with data gaps cover the south-eastern and eastern coastal regions of the Baltic Proper and the southern Gulf of Finland.     

Modeling the Baltic Sea eutrophication in a decision support system

SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary Baltic Long-Term Large-Scale) is a model of the coupled nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. This model has been developed as an integral part of the decision support system Marine Research on Eutrophication's Nest with the overall aim to evaluate management options for reducing Baltic Sea eutrophication. Simulated nutrient and oxygen concentrations as well as transport flows and major biogeochemical fluxes can be analyzed in many different ways, including construction of detailed nutrient budgets and tracing the fate of nutrient inputs. The large amounts of data that exist for this sea makes it possible to validate model results with observations. Major biogeochemical properties of the Baltic Sea are discussed through an analyses of model sensitivity to external forcing and internal parameterizations. Model results emphasize two features that are especially important for ecosystem management: i) impacts of local measures would always be modified by the long-range transports from other regions and ii) the response to significant changes in loads would only be seen after several decades.     

Closing a Loop: Substance Flow Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Rainbow Trout Production and Domestic Consumption System in Finland

Ongoing eutrophication is changing the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Aquaculture causes relatively small-scale nutrient emissions, but local environmental impact may be considerable. We used substance flow analysis (SFA) to identify and quantify the most significant flows and stocks of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) related to rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland. In 2004–2007, the input of nutrients to the system in the form of fish feed was 829 t N year⁻¹ and 115 t P year⁻¹. Around one-fifth of these nutrients ended up as food for human consumption. Of the primary input, 70% ended up in the Baltic Sea, directly from aquaculture and indirectly through waste management. The nutrient cycle could be closed partially by using local fish instead of imported fish in rainbow trout feed, thus reducing the net load of N and P to a fraction.     

Horizontal and vertical variabilities of mercury concentration and speciation in sediments of the Gdansk Basin,Southern Baltic Sea

The mercury compounds introduced to the environment because of anthropogenic activity are accumulated, mainly, in marine sediments. Both distribution of mercury in the Baltic Sea and factors affecting it are remain largely unknown. Due to its complex chemistry and variable conditions in the Baltic Sea bottom sediments, mercury may be reemitted to the overlaying water, and thus to the environment.The aim of this study was twofold. Total mercury contents were measured in sediments of the Gdansk Basin along a Vistula mouth (main source)--Gdansk Deep (deposition area) transect in order to assess spatial distribution of the element. Soft and sandy bottom sediment cores were collected and cut into slices. The mercury measurements consisted of acid digestion followed by CV-AAS determination. A five-step sequential extraction procedure involving measurements of mercury species water soluble, bound to humic substances and insoluble, was employed in order to investigate mercury speciation. On the basis of speciation results stability and remobilisation potential was assessed. The second aim was demonstrating that mercury gradients in vertical profiles of the investigated sediment cores exist.Total mercury contents varied in range from 28 ng/g x dw to 844 ng/g. Mercury associated with organic matter and sulphides, (respectively 39% and 49%) were the dominant species of the element. The results indicated that the river run-off is a source of mercury in the area. Vertical gradients of both total content and speciation of mercury in the soft sediments were attributed to both remobilisation from sediments, and decreasing trend in the anthropogenic load of the element deposited to sediments.     

Arsenic in sediments from the southeastern Baltic Sea

Arsenic occurs as a persistent constituent in many of the chemical weapons dumped into the Baltic Sea; it can be used as an indicator of leakage and dispersal of released munitions to the marine environment. Total arsenic was analysed in sediment samples taken from the Lithuanian economic zone in the Baltic Sea, which included samples from the chemical munitions dumpsite in the Gotland Basin and national monitoring stations in the southeastern Baltic Sea. Arsenic concentrations in sediments ranged from 1.1 to 19.0 mg kg(-1), with an average of 3.4 mg kg(-1). Although there was evidence of slightly elevated arsenic content in sediments near the weapons dumpsite, arsenic concentrations were nevertheless quite low relative to other investigations in the Baltic and North Seas.     

Alternating Copolymers and Alternative Device Geometries for Organic Photovoltaics

Bathymetry, the underwater topography, is a fundamental property of oceans, seas, and lakes. As such it is important for a wide range of applications, like physical oceanography, marine geology, geophysics and biology or the administration of marine resources. The exact requirements users may have regarding bathymetric data are, however, unclear. Here, the results of a questionnaire survey and a literature review are presented, concerning the use of Baltic Sea bathymetric data in research and for societal needs. It is demonstrated that there is a great need for detailed bathymetric data. Despite the abundance of high-quality bathymetric data that are produced for safety of navigation purposes, the digital bathymetric models publicly available to date cannot satisfy this need. Our study shows that DBMs based on data collected for safety of navigation could substantially improve the base data for administrative decision making as well as the possibilities for marine research in the Baltic Sea.     

Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

The Potential of Current- and Wind-Driven Transport for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea

The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.     

Survey of perfluorinated alkyl acids in Finnish effluents, storm water, landfill leachate and sludge

The objective of the Control of Hazardous Substances in the Baltic Sea (COHIBA) project is to support the implementation of the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan regarding hazardous substances by developing joint actions to achieve the goal of “a Baltic Sea with life undisturbed by hazardous substances”. One aim in the project was to identify the most important sources of 11 hazardous substances of special concern in the Baltic Sea. Among them are perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). In this study, four perfluorinated alkyl acids (PFAAs) were studied: PFOA, PFOS, perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA) and perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA). The occurrence of PFAAs in municipal and industrial wastewater treatment plant effluents (MWWTP1-3, IWWTP1), target industry effluent, storm water, landfill leachate and sludge was studied. Effluents were analysed six times and storm water, leachate and sludge were analysed twice, once in the warm season and once in the cold, during a 1-year sampling campaign. PFOS prevailed in two municipal effluents (MWWTP1 and 3) and industrial effluent (IWWTP1; 7.8–14, 8.0–640 and 320–1,300 ng/l, respectively). However, in one municipal effluent (MWWTP2) PFOA was, in a majority of sampling occasions, the predominant PFAA (9–15 ng/l) followed by PFOS (3.8–20 ng/l). The highest PFAA loads of the municipal effluents were found in the MWWTP3 receiving the biggest portion of industrial wastewater. In storm water the highest concentration was found for PFHxA (17 ng/l). The highest concentration of PFOS and PFOA were 9.9 and 5.1 ng/l, respectively. PFOS, PFOA and PFHxA were detected in every effluent, storm water and landfill leachate sample, whereas PFDA was detected in most of the samples (77 %). In the target industry, PFOS concentrations varied between 1,400 and 18,000 μg/l. In addition, on one sampling occasion PFOA and PFHxA were found (0.027 and 0.009 μg/l, respectively). For effluents, PFAA mass flows into the Baltic Sea were calculated. For municipal wastewater treatment plants average mass flows per day varied for PFOS between 1,073 and 38,880 mg/day, for PFOA 960 and 2,700 mg/day, for PFHxA 408 and 1,269 mg/day and for PFDA 84 and 270 mg/day. In IWWTP mass flows for PFOS, PFOA, PFHxA and PFDA were 495 mg/d, 28 mg/d, 23 mg/d and 0.6 mg/g, respectively.     

Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate

For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.     

Chlorinated terpenes and chlordane components found in fish,guillemot and seal from Swedish waters

Fish samples from the Baltic, the North Sea and lake Vättern have been found to be contaminated with chlorinated terpenes. These compounds were also present in seal and guillemot from the Baltic at the same concentration - about 10 mg per kg fat - as in their prey, the herring. Chlordane-related compounds were also found in all samples. The most common substances were trans-nonachlor and oxychlordane, but differences could be observed between species. These organochlorine pesticides are not used in Sweden and the probable explanation for their presence in a Swedish lake is air transportation.     

First study of congener group patterns and concentrations of short- and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins in fish from the North and Baltic Sea

This study presents the first investigation of concentrations and congener group patterns of short- (SCCPs) and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins (MCCPs) in fish from the North and Baltic Sea. North Sea dab, cod and flounder were studied. High resolution gas chromatography (HRGC) coupled to low resolution mass spectrometry (LRMS) in the electron capture negative ionization mode (ECNI) was employed. Good linearity (R2>0.993, 7 measuring points) was achieved between 1 and 100 ng/g of CP mixtures for SCCPs and MCCPs. The limits of detection were 0.5-1 ng/microl of CP mixture for the major congener groups of SCCPs and MCCPs. A clean-up comprising fat extraction, adsorption chromatography on silicagel impregnated with concentrated sulphuric acid and adsorption chromatography on Florisil was employed to avoid interferences from other polychlorinated compounds. Recoveries of CPs in spiked samples ranged between 80% and 100%. Accuracy was controlled with spiked samples and deviated not more than 10% from the expected values. Quantification was performed with standards of an average chlorine content as close as possible to that of the samples (SCCPs: 59-62%, MCCPs: 53-58%). SCCP concentrations ranged between 19 and 286 ng/g liver wet weight (ww), MCCP concentrations were comparable with a range of 25-260 ng/gww. Congener group patterns were also determined and discussed. In samples from the Baltic Sea the SCCP congener pattern was similar to that of commercial SCCP mixtures or C13 congeners were most abundant. In samples from the North Sea a higher relative abundance of C10 congeners was observed.     

The potential future contribution of shipping to acidification of the Baltic Sea

International regulation of the emission of acidic sulphur and nitrogen oxides from commercial shipping has focused on the risks to human health, with little attention paid to the consequences for the marine environment. The introduction of stricter regulations in northern Europe has led to substantial investment in scrubbers that absorb the sulphur oxides in a counterflow of seawater. This paper examines the consequences of smokestack and scrubber release of acidic oxides in the Baltic Sea according to a range of scenarios for the coming decades. While shipping is projected to become a major source of strong acid deposition to the Baltic Sea by 2050, the long-term effect on the pH and alkalinity is projected to be significantly smaller than estimated from previous scoping studies. A significant contribution to this difference is the efficient export of surface water acidification to the North Sea on a timescale of 15–20 years.     

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.     

Saving the Baltic Sea,the Inland Waters of Its Drainage Basin,or Both? Spatial Perspectives on Reducing P-Loads in Eastern Sweden

Nutrient loads from inland sources to the Baltic Sea and adjacent inland waters need to be reduced in order to prevent eutrophication and meet requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). We here investigate the spatial implications of using different possible criteria for reducing water-borne phosphorous (P) loads in the Northern Baltic Sea River Basin District (NBS-RBD) in Sweden. Results show that most catchments that have a high degree of internal eutrophication do not express high export of P from their outlets. Furthermore, due to lake retention, lake catchments with high P-loads per agricultural area (which is potentially of concern for the WFD) did not considerably contribute to the P-loading of the Baltic Sea. Spatially uniform water quality goals may, therefore, not be effective in NBS-RBD, emphasizing more generally the need for regional adaptation of WFD and BSAP-related goals.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0523-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.     

Application of a novel modeling tool with multistressor functionality to support management of organic contaminants in the Baltic Sea

Organic contaminants constitute one of many stressors that deteriorate the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. When managing environmental problems in this marine environment, it may be necessary to consider the interactions between various stressors to ensure that averting one problem does not exacerbate another. A novel modeling tool, BALTSEM-POP, is presented here that simulates interactions between climate forcing, hydrodynamic conditions, and water exchange, biogeochemical cycling, and organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea. We discuss opportunities to use the model to support different aspects of chemicals management. We exemplify these opportunities with a case study where two emission-reduction strategies for a chemical used in personal care products (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) are evaluated, and where the confounding influence of future climate change and eutrophication on the impact of the emission-reduction strategies are assessed.