Modeling Runoff Response to Land Cover and Rainfall Spatial Variability in Semi-Arid Watersheds

Hydrologic response is an integrated indicator of watershed condition, and significant changes in land cover may affect the overall health and function of a watershed. This paper describes a procedure for evaluating the effects of land cover change and rainfall spatial variability on watershed response. Two hydrologic models were applied on a small semi-arid watershed; one model is event-based with a one-minute time step (KINEROS), and the second is a continuous model with a daily time step (SWAT). The inputs to the models were derived from Geographic Information System (GIS) theme layers of USGS digital elevation models, the State Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO) and the Landsat-based North American Landscape Characterization classification (NALC) in conjunction with available literature and look up tables. Rainfall data from a network of 10 raingauges and historical stream flow data were used to calibrate runoff depth using the continuous hydrologic model from 1966 to 1974. No calibration was carried out for the event-based model, in which six storms from the same period were used in the calculation of runoff depth and peak runoff. The assumption on which much of this study is based is that land cover change and rainfall spatial variability affect the rainfall-runoff relationships on the watershed. To validate this assumption, simulations were carried out wherein the entire watershed was transformed from the 1972 NALC land cover, which consisted of a mixture of desertscrub and grassland, to a single uniform land cover type such as riparian, forest, oak woodland, mesquite woodland, desertscrub, grassland, urban, agriculture, and barren. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using widely available data sets for parameterizing hydrologic simulation models. The simulation results show that both models were able to characterize the runoff response of the watershed due to changes of land cover.     

Analysis of spatio-temporal land cover changes for hydrological impact assessment within the Nyando River Basin of Kenya

The spatio-temporal changes in the land cover states of the Nyando Basin were investigated for auxiliary hydrological impact assessment. The predominant land cover types whose conversions could influence the hydrological response of the region were selected. Six Landsat images for 1973, 1986, and 2000 were processed to discern the changes based on a methodology that employs a hybrid of supervised and unsupervised classification schemes. The accuracy of the classifications were assessed using reference datasets processed in a GIS with the help of ground-based information obtained through participatory mapping techniques. To assess the possible hydrological effect of the detected changes during storm events, a physically based lumped approach for infiltration loss estimation was employed within five selected sub-basins. The results obtained indicated that forests in the basin declined by 20% while agricultural fields expanded by 16% during the entire period of study. Apparent from the land cover conversion matrices was that the majority of the forest decline was a consequence of agricultural expansion. The model results revealed decreased infiltration amounts by between 6% and 15%. The headwater regions with the vast deforestation were noted to be more vulnerable to the land cover change effects. Despite the haphazard land use patterns and uncertainties related to poor data quality for environmental monitoring and assessment, the study exposed the vast degradation and hence the need for sustainable land use planning for enhanced catchment management purposes.     

Did the ecological engineering have a great impact on the land use change?

Overuse of land resources has increasingly contributed to environmental crises in China. To mitigate widespread land degradation, actions have been taken to maintain and restore the ecological environment through efforts such as ecological engineering. By analyzing trends in land use, the impact and effectiveness of ecological engineering can be determined. In this study, such changes in Huanjiang County in China were considered. In the early 1990s, an eco-immigration policy and “returning farmland to forest program” were implemented in the county, drastically impacting land use. Land use/land cover changes were detected and analyzed using remote sensing data recorded over 4 years (1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010). Land transfer flow and the rate of land use change elucidated the extent of changes, while nuclear density analysis indicated spatial agglomeration. The results indicate that, over a period of 15 years, farmland area increased, while forest area decreased initially before subsequently increasing. From 1995 to 2000, the highest transfer flow was observed in the grassland to farmland conversion (79.34%). From 2000 to 2005, the transfer flow of conversions was the highest for forest to farmland (56.79%). Land use changes were not prominent from 2005 to 2010. Direct drivers of land use change exert obvious impacts on land use, and indirect drivers impact direct drivers that are then channeled through direct anthropogenic drivers (e.g., land use policies). We found that ecological engineering has a very significant impact on land use change, and that impact varies from region to region.     

Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Trends in land use and land cover change in the protected and communal areas of the Zambezi Region,Namibia

Land management decisions have extensively modified land use and land cover in the Zambezi Region. These decisions are influenced by land tenure classifications, legislation, and livelihoods. Land use and land cover change is an important indicator for quantifying the effectiveness of different land management strategies. However, there has been no evidence on whether protected or communal land tenure is more affected by land use and land cover changes in southern Africa and particularly Namibia. Our study attempted to fill this gap by analyzing the relationship between land use and land cover change and land tenure regimes stratified according to protected and communal area in the Zambezi Region. Multi-temporal Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery were used to determine the temporal dynamics of land use and land cover change from 1984 to 2010. The landscape showed distinctive modifications over the study period; broad trends include the increase in forest land after 1991. However, changes were not uniform across the study areas. Two landscape development stages were deduced: (1) 1984–1991 represented high deforestation and gradual increase in shrub land; (2) 1991–2000 and 2000–2010 represented lower deforestation and slower agropastoral expansion. The results further show clear patterns of the dynamics, magnitude, and direction of land use and land cover change by tenure regime. The study concluded that land tenure has a direct impact on land use and land cover, since it may restrict some activities carried out on the land in the Zambezi Region.     

Derivation of unit and flood hydrographs using a gis

A geographic information system (GIS) supporting a flood hydrograph prediction software package is described. The hydrograph prediction method is based on the convolution of excess rainfall with a synthetic unit hydrograph, derived by the Soil Conservation Service runoff curve number and a regional dimensionless unit hydrograph method, respectively. The GIS uses a raster method to store the following data: land use and land cover, soil type, rainfall intensity-frequency-duration statistics, runoff curve numbers (CN), regional dimensionless unit hydrograph, and regional lag-time relationship. The GIS has also the capability of computing a number of watershed and hydrologic parameters required for predictions, such as a watershed average rainfall and CN value, area, centroid, stream length etc. Most of the data for such computations are input from a digitizer. Substantial time and cost savings are possible once the data base has been created. Application of the system is illustrated by an example predicting flood frequency curves for selected watersheds in Alberta's Rocky Mountain foothills, Canada.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern in Eastern Turkey: a case study in Gümüşhane

Recognition and understanding of landscape dynamics as a historical legacy of disturbances are necessary for sustainable management of forest ecosystems. This study analyzed spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover patterns in a typical mountain watershed in the Gumushane district along the Northeastern part of Turkey. The area is investigated by comparing LANDSAT images from 1987 to 2000 and evaluated the temporal changes of spatial structure of forest conditions through spatial analysis of forest cover type maps from 1971 and 1987 using GIS and FRAGSTATS™. The results show a general decreasing trend in area of natural land cover types including broadleaf and conifer forests as well as coppice between 1971 and 1987 (0.54%, respectively). In contrast, between 1987 and 2000 this natural land cover types show increasing trend (1.6%). In parallel with forest dynamics, the area of managed land including lowland and upland agricultural areas, rangelands and grasslands increased during the first period and decreased during second period. In terms of spatial configuration, Gümüşhane forests aren’t generally fragmented by intensive forest utilization in the latter periods. This is partially due to out-migration of rural population in Gümüşhane. Nevertheless, land use pattern significantly changed over time depending on a few factors such as unregulated management actions, social pressure and demographic movements. The study revealed that demographic movements have a major effect on landscape dynamics.     

基于遥感和Markov模型的新疆生产建设兵团土地利用变化

通过对兵团土地利用空间格局变化分析,选择合适的土地利用政策保护生态环境。运用RS和GIS技术对兵团近10年土地利用/覆被变化及景观格局空间变化进行分析,并在此基础上运用Markov模型对未来30年土地利用变化进行预测。2000—2010年,新疆生产建设兵团景观多样性升高,连通性增强,形状愈来愈简单,景观格局整体变化不大;草地、灌丛、湿地、荒漠和冰川/永久积雪面积减少,耕地和城镇面积增加,森林保持稳定;人为干扰对土地利用结构的变化具有重要作用,土地利用强度受人为活动影响的同时受土地利用政策影响;在未来30年间耕地和城镇面积继续增加,除森林基本保持不变外其他土地利用类型均减小。兵团城镇用地与草地和耕地之间的矛盾逐渐显现,势必引起兵团生态格局的变化。因此,必须实行合适的土地利用政策保护环境。     

Land-cover changes in an urban lake watershed in a mega-city, Central China

Urbanization can exert a profound influence on land covers and landscape characteristics. In this study, we characterize the impact of urbanization on land cover and lacustrine landscape and their consequences in a large urban lake watershed, Donghu Lake watershed (the largest urban lake in China), Central China, by using Landsat TM satellite images of three periods of 1987, 1993 and 1999 and ground-based information. We grouped the land covers into six categories: water body, vegetable land, forested land, shrub-grass land, open area and urban land, and calculated patch-related landscape indices to analyze the effects of urbanization on landscape features. We overlaid the land cover maps of the three periods to track the land cover change processes. The results indicated that urban land continuously expanded from 9.1% of the total watershed area in 1987, to 19.4% in 1993, and to 29.6% in 1999. The vegetable land increased from 7.0% in 1987, 11.9% in 1993, to 13.9% in 1999 to sustain the demands of vegetable for increased urban population. Concurrently, continuous reduction of other land cover types occurred between 1987 and 1999: water body decreased from 30.4% to 23.8%, and forested land from 33.6% to 24.3%. We found that the expansion of urban land has at least in part caused a decrease in relatively wild habitats, such as urban forest and lake water area. These alterations had resulted in significant negative environmental consequences, including decline of lakes, deterioration of water and air quality, and loss of biodiversity.     

A Landscape Approach for Detecting and Evaluating Change in a Semi-Arid Environment

Vegetation change in the American West has been a subject of concern throughout the twentieth century. Although many of the changes have been recorded qualitatively through the use of comparative photography and historical reports, little quantitative information has been available on the regional or watershed scale. It is currently possible to measure change over large areas and determine trends in ecological and hydrological condition using advanced space-based technologies. Specifically, this process is being tested in a community-based watershed in southeast Arizona and northeast Sonora, Mexico using a system of landscape pattern measurements derived from satellite remote sensing, spatial statistics, process modeling, and geographic information systems technology. These technologies provide the basis for developing landscape composition and pattern indicators as sensitive measures of large-scale environmental change and thus may provide an effective and economical method for evaluating watershed condition related to disturbance from human and natural stresses. The project utilizes the database from the North American Landscape Characterization (NALC) project which incorporates triplicate Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) imagery from the early 1970s, mid 1980s, and the 1990s. Landscape composition and pattern metrics have been generated from digital land cover maps derived from the NALC images and compared across a nearly 20-year period. Results about changes in land cover for the study period indicate that extensive, highly connected grassland and desertscrub areas are the most vulnerable ecosystems to fragmentation and actual loss due to encroachment of xerophytic mesquite woodland. In the study period, grasslands and desertscrub not only decreased in extent but also became more fragmented. That is, the number of grassland and desertscrub patches increased and their average patch sizes decreased. In stark contrast, the mesquite woodland patches increased in size, number, and connectivity. These changes have important impact for the hydrology of the region, since the energy and water balance characteristics for these cover types are significantly different. The process demonstrates a simple procedure to document changes and determine ecosystem vulnerabilities through the use of change detection and indicator development, especially in regard to traditional degradation processes that have occurred throughout the western rangelands involving changes of vegetative cover and acceleration of water and wind erosion.     

Appraisal of the groundwater balance components from multi-remote sensing datasets in a semi-arid region

Semi-arid regions across the globe are fronting water crises, signaling a challenge to ensure future water security. Given the high inter-seasonal rainfall variability and unrestrained groundwater extraction, the precise quantification of groundwater flow components in an aquifer system is a priority. To address this challenge, we used high-resolution remote sensing (RS) data (Landsat and IRS) and GIS modeling (SEBAL, ArcCN) to spatially quantify major groundwater balance (GWB) components, viz., evapotranspiration (ET), rainfall recharge (R), surface runoff (Q), groundwater extraction (PG), irrigation return flow (IRF), and ultimately changes in groundwater storage (ΔS) in a small semi-arid crystalline representative watershed. Results show that a total of ~?230 mm of groundwater is extracted during 2008–2009, creating a negative impact on the groundwater resource, which is further enhanced by limited recharge and high ET. A decrease of approximately 65 mm in groundwater storage is observed in a single hydrological year, and given a very low specific yield, this decrease will introduce large water level decline. The study establishes that declining groundwater level in the watershed is a direct result of over-extraction, and owing to this scenario, efficient irrigation and land use policies are suggested as potential approaches to minimize extraction specifically in the dry season. Our methodology provides a systematic assessment of vital GWB components at a high spatial resolution and an insight on various sustainable mitigation methods. This methodology is useful in the planning and management of groundwater resources, particularly in water-stressed areas.     

Effect of land use land cover change on soil erosion potential in an agricultural watershed

Universal soil loss equation (USLE) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system to determine the influence of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on soil erosion potential of a reservoir catchment during the period 1989 to 2004. Results showed that the mean soil erosion potential of the watershed was increased slightly from 12.11 t ha^???1 year^???1 in the year 1989 to 13.21 t ha^???1 year^???1 in the year 2004. Spatial analysis revealed that the disappearance of forest patches from relatively flat areas, increased in wasteland in steep slope, and intensification of cultivation practice in relatively more erosion-prone soil were the main factors contributing toward the increased soil erosion potential of the watershed during the study period. Results indicated that transition of other land use land cover (LUC) categories to cropland was the most detrimental to watershed in terms of soil loss while forest acted as the most effective barrier to soil loss. A p value of 0.5503 obtained for two-tailed paired t test between the mean erosion potential of microwatersheds in 1989 and 2004 also indicated towards a moderate change in soil erosion potential of the watershed over the studied period. This study revealed that the spatial location of LUC parcels with respect to terrain and associated soil properties should be an important consideration in soil erosion assessment process.     

One century of hydrological monitoring in two small catchments with different forest coverage

Long-term data on precipitation and runoff are essential to draw firm conclusions about the behavior and trends of hydrological catchments that may be influenced by land use and climate change. Here the longest continuous runoff records from small catchments (<1 km(2)) in Switzerland (and possibly worldwide) are reported. The history of the hydrological monitoring in the Sperbel- and Rappengraben (Emmental) is summarized, and inherent uncertainties in the data arising from the operation of the gauges are described. The runoff stations operated safely for more than 90% of the summer months when most of the major flood events occurred. Nevertheless, the absolute values of peak runoff during the largest flood events are subject to considerable uncertainty. The observed differences in average, base, and peak runoff can only partly be attributed to the substantial differences in forest coverage. This treasure trove of data can be used in various ways, exemplified here with an analysis of the generalized extreme value distributions of the two catchments. These distributions, and hence flood return periods, have varied greatly in the course of one century, influenced by the occurrence of single extreme events. The data will be made publicly available for the further analysis of the mechanisms governing the runoff behavior of small catchments, as well as for testing stochastic and deterministic models.     

Stream discharge characteristics through urbanization gradient in Danshui River, Taiwan: perspectives from observation and simulation

Urbanization and the subsequent changes in land use/cover inevitably influence the quality and even the quantity of stream water. This issue is widely studied through evaluations on land-use change scenarios or comparisons among historical patterns at the same watershed. However, observational stream discharge changes through urbanization gradient have rarely been discussed. In this study, we analyzed 5-year discharge data from 13 gauges in the Danshui River network with a wide range of urbanization gradient to explore the impacts on observational hydrological characteristics in individual catchments. The results reveal that stream discharge in pristine watersheds is characterized by a larger proportion of baseflow and is less fluctuating. When the forest coverage is <90%, the discharge fluctuation almost doubles. Meanwhile, the baseflow fraction decreases gradually with the increase of paddy area, which may concomitantly result from the increasing irrigation. Such a drop in baseflow may threaten the maintenance of the minimum flow required for the stream aquatic ecosystem. Furthermore, we simulated the stream discharges by TOPMODEL with blind land-use-independent parameters. The results show that the simulated discharges are satisfactory, particularly for the pristine catchments, but not as fitting for the paddy-intensive watersheds perhaps due to the unexpected irrigation. On the whole, the calibrated parameters are dependent with the landscape characteristics. The landscape-based parameter estimations can be applied to simulate discharge well, meaning the potential to assess the ungauged watersheds.     

Effects of changing forest land definitions on forest inventory on the West Coast, USA

A key function of forest inventory is to detect changes in the area of forest land over time, yet different definitions of forest land are used in different regions of the world. Changes in the definition of forest intended to improve international consistency can affect the ability to quantify true changes over time. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of a definitional change from relative stocking to canopy cover on the area classified as forest land and its relationship to species and forest density in California, Oregon, and Washington. Both western Juniper and ponderosa pine will yield higher estimates of forest land area using a canopy cover definition in comparison to a stocking-based definition, with the difference being most pronounced where land is marginally forested. The change in definition may result in an additional 146,000 ha of forest land identified on the West Coast. Measuring marginal forest lands with both metrics for the first cycle after implementation should make it possible to distinguish real change from definitional change.     

Estimation of Land Use Specific Runoff and Pollutant Concentration for Tapi River Basin in India

Non-point source (NPS) pollution is the result of various land use practices such as agriculture, sites of construction and waste disposal, urban development and so on. The control of NPS pollution is possible by regular monitoring and assessment on watershed basis to educate people for implementing well-known structural and non-structural measures. Recent trend is to use GIS based modelling tool for assessment of rainfall-runoff and non-point loading. The approach requires generation and analysis of basin wide data on various features of land and estimates of Event Mean Concentrations (EMCs) of pollutants in the runoff. In the present paper, basin wide data in different districts of Tapi basin has been analysed for land use distribution; fertilizer application; low, medium and high-density habitation; and annual rainfall. Coefficients of runoff have been estimated considering pervious and impervious area for different land use types, and compared with the reported values for Indian conditions. The estimated mean annual runoff flow indicated that two districts Jalgaon and Dhule contribute maximum runoff to the Tapi River. Estimates of EMCs for BOD and nutrients (N and P) in the runoff from various districts are useful in GIS-based modelling study for NPS pollution assessment.     

Land use impacts on river health of Uma Oya,Sri Lanka: implications of spatial scales

Human actions on landscapes are a principal threat to the ecological integrity of river ecosystems worldwide. Tropical landscapes have been poorly investigated in terms of the impact of catchment land cover alteration on water quality and biotic indices in comparison to temperate landscapes. Effects of land cover in the catchment at two spatial scales (catchment and site) on stream physical habitat quality, water quality, macroinvertebrate indices and community composition were evaluated for Uma Oya catchment in the upper Mahaweli watershed, Sri Lanka. The relationship between spatial arrangement of land cover in the catchment and water quality, macroinvertebrate indices and community composition was examined using univariate and multivariate approaches. Results indicate that chemical water quality variables such as conductivity and total dissolved solids are mostly governed by the land cover at broader spatial scales such as catchment scale. Shannon diversity index was also affected by catchment scale forest cover. In stream habitat features, nutrients such as N-NO₃ ^?, macroinvertebrate family richness, %shredders and macroinvertebrate community assemblages were predominantly influenced by the extent of land cover at 200 m site scale suggesting that local riparian forest cover is important in structuring macroinvertebrate communities. Thus, this study emphasizes the importance of services provided by forest cover at catchment and site scale in enhancing resilience of stream ecosystems to natural forces and human actions. Findings suggest that land cover disturbance effects on stream ecosystem health could be predicted when appropriate spatial arrangement of land cover is considered and has widespread application in the management of tropical river catchments.     

Uncertainties of forest area estimates caused by the minimum crown cover criterion

Defining “forest land” is a complex issue and has been discussed for decades. Today, a confusing multitude of definitions of forest land are in use making comparison of forest area figures difficult. But currently, comparability is receiving much attention when it comes to install market mechanisms for ecosystem services. Minimum crown cover is among the most frequently employed criteria of forest definitions. However, the size of the reference area on which the crown cover percent is to be measured is usually not defined. But how does a change of the size of the reference area affect the derived forest cover? In this study, we analyze the interactions of the crown cover threshold and the size of the reference area. We start with analyzing the interactions using a simple geometric model of the forest edge. Then, we extend the analysis by simulating artificial landscapes where we study how the interaction is affected by different degrees of forest fragmentation, crown cover proportion, and spatial resolution of the data source used. The simulation showed that large differences in forest cover (>50 %) may result for a fixed crown cover threshold value, just by changing the size of the reference area, where the magnitude of this effect is a function of the chosen threshold value and the spatial configuration of the crowns. As a consequence of the findings, we see an urgent need to complete forest definitions by defining a reference area in order to reduce uncertainties of forest cover estimates.     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.