Analysis of the decision-support function of policy assessment in real-world policy making in the field of poverty and social inequalities. Case study on migrant integration policies in the Brussels-Capital Region

Despite its high potential to support decision-making, the role of policy assessment in real-world policy making in the field of poverty and social inequalities remains largely questioned. In this study, we analyse policy assessment's role in a context of real-world policymaking, by means of a case study on a legislative proposal on integration policy for immigrant newcomers in the Brussels-Capital Region, for which we evaluate the potential effects on poverty and social inequalities. We first analyse the policy process surrounding the policy proposal – a process that is often treated as a black box within policy assessment research. Understanding the factors that influence and determine the decision-making process, enables us to gain insight into the potential decision-support function(s). Second, we develop an approach to policy assessment that aims to fully exploit its potential to contribute to the functions of both instrumental and conceptual learning. For this purpose, we propose to introduce the approach of realist evaluation and to focus on evaluating the underlying policy intervention theory from the perspective of poverty and social inequalities. Finally, we illustrate this new approach and its added value by applying it to the legislative proposal on integration policy and analyse its contribution to policy-oriented learning.     

Natural capital in ecology and economics: an overview

The Brundtland Commission report, Our Common Future, defined sustainable development as development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of futuregenerations to meet their own needs. Although the idea of sustainable development has been widely accepted, it has proveddifficult to identify and implement policies and practices thatpromote sustainable economic growth. Some economists, environmental scientists and policy analysts believe that they can transform the consensus about sustainability into manageablepractices. They propose to accomplish this feat with a set of new ideas about the relationships between the economy and theenvironment offered under the banner of 'natural capital'. An ideal account of natural capital would be one or more standard measures or models that would allow the direct comparison of environmental goods, like forests, fresh water and clean air, with economic goods, like money, capital and productivity. By bringing economic science and environmental science to an objective common ground, a natural capital model has the potentialto provide a concrete means of comparing the economic and ecological costs and benefits of particular policies and programmes. This paper offers a survey and analysis of several new contributions to the formation of the natural capital concept from economists, ecologists, policy analysts, biometricians, foresters and a philosopher. The paper concludes that existingmicroeconomic theory may be 'ungreenable', if it is not reformulated. While macroeconomic approaches to natural capitalhave been more successful, they share the limitation that ecosystems and species are valued solely in monetary terms. These problems are taken to suggest that the development of a successful natural capital model may require economic theory tobe recast to include non-monetary social preferences and values.     

Forest Conservation and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions: A Viable Approach

We adopt viability theory to assess the sustainability of the world’s forests while taking into account some of the competing economic, social, and environmental uses of these forests, namely, timber production, poverty alleviation through agriculture, and air quality as well as the negative externalities that these uses create. We provide insights on the different trade-offs faced to achieve sustainability and draw some policy implications as to what is the path leading to sustainability in the long run.     

Policy instruments for addressing construction equipment emission——A research review from a global perspective

Policy instruments have been initiated for addressing the severe problem of extensive construction equipment emissions (CEE) by governments around the world. Advanced and developing-economy promoters with distinctive background and constraints present differences in the development of CEE reduction policy instruments. However, there is little research looking into the evolving trends, lessons and accumulated experiences in the development of CEE reduction policy instruments. This study conducts a holistic review and analysis on the development of CEE reduction policy instruments from a global perspective. Three groups of policy instruments are identified, including the mandatory administration policy instrument (PI-A), the economic incentive policy instrument (PI-B), and the voluntary participation policy instrument (PI-C). Comparative analysis of CEE reduction policy instruments is conducted between advanced and developing-economy promoters. The results of this study show that both advanced and developing-economy promoters overwhelmingly prefer to adopt PI-As. Developing-economy promoters may not have sufficient resources for implementing PI-Bs and PI-Cs. Advanced-economy promoters have devoted more efforts to developing PI-Bs and PI-Cs. This research also suggested that a mixture of PI-As, PI-Bs and PI-Cs works better, and policy instruments should be selected considering the context of promoters. This research aims to promote experience-sharing between policymakers and provide them with significant insights for formulating more effective CEE reduction policy instruments.     

Uncertainty in integrated assessment: A social scientific perspective

In the context of integrated assessment, the authors address the issue of uncertainty and subjectivity in modelling. In relating bias to different perspectives, the authors introduce the methodology of multiple model routes, which are reflections of different perceptions of reality and various policy preferences. As heuristic they use three perspectives, which are distinguished in cultural theory. The article describes case-studies on the population and health controversy in order to illustrate the possibilities of their approach. The article concludes with discussing the lessons learned by applying this methodology.     

A review of EIAs on trade policy in China: Exploring the way for economic policy EIAs

During the discussion on the “Environmental Protection Law Amendment (draft)” in 2011, it was decided to drop the proposed clauses related to environmental impact assessments (EIAs) on policy, which means that there remained no provisions for policy EIAs, and China's strategic environmental assessment system stayed limited to the planning level. However, considering that economic policy making is causing significant direct and indirect environmental problems and that almost every aspect of governmental policy has an economic aspect, EIAs on economic policies are of the utmost urgency. The purpose of this study is to review the EIA work that has been carried out on trade policy in China through four case studies, and illustrate how trade policy EIAs can be helpful in achieving better environmental outcomes in the area of trade. Through the trade policy EIA case studies we try to argue for the feasibility of conducting EIAs on economic policies in China. We also discuss the implications of the case studies from the point of view of how to proceed with EIAs on economic policy and how to promote their practice.     

Regulation of pesticide discharge into surface and groundwater under uncertainty: A model for environmental risk‐profitability tradeoffs and policy selection

The presence of contaminants in environmental media as well as the desire to maintain a high level of economic activity has led to an important and difficult decision‐making problem for both public policy decision makers and the general public. In one sense, all of the interested parties are likely to be concerned about the potential health risks posed by the presence of contaminants in environmental media and the need to design/implement policies for their mitigation and/or removal. At the same time, however, there also appear to be concerns about the cost of these policies. These costs could be measured in terms of the potential losses in economic activity that are likely to occur when a policy is adopted. The policy can be selected from a range of alternatives, with the choice being driven in part by the stakeholders represented in the policy decision problem. In this case, two general goals might be considered: minimizing environmental risk and minimizing the economic impact of the policy considered. These two objectives are likely to be viewed as conflicting goals, and the nature of the tradeoffs between them must be taken into account in the policy selection process. This paper presents the development of a zero–one weighted goal programming model that can be used to select a preferred policy that minimizes surface and groundwater contamination as well as the economic costs of environmental policy selection. A safety rule model is developed first and then extended to the zero–one weighted goal programming formulation. The stochastic aspects of these structures are emphasized throughout. The paper also addresses a number of issues related to implementation of the model.     

From consultation to deliberation? Tracing deliberative norms in EIA frameworks in Swedish roads planning

This paper presents the results of an analysis of deliberative norms in the framework for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in roads planning in Sweden. The more specific question is how this framework has responded to the shift towards more deliberative approaches to planning and decision making, advocated in planning theory and policy literature over the last decade. The analysis, which compares the current framework and guidance with an earlier iteration, identifies a shift towards deliberation; deliberative norms are present, and even dominate recent guidance. However, an instrumental norm permeates both the former and the current guidance, suggesting that even as a language of consultation is replaced by one of deliberation, the intention remains to secure and legitimise a smooth development pathway. Evidence from interviews with professionals working in the Swedish EIA system highlights the difficulties of navigating these uncertainties in practice. By opening up critical analysis of deliberative norms as they shape the conditions for practice, this study contributes to the continuous development of planning practice, by supporting a more normatively reflexive approach to framework-design.     

Weighing the evidence: prospects for evidence-based policy-making

Evidence-based policy (EBP) is currently one of the "big ideas" in policy circles. From its origins in the medical community, EBP is now being applied to other policy domains including environment. But will it really ensure that the public policy grease gets to the environmental squeak? And what are the implications for scientists themselves?     

Mainstreaming ecosystem services in European policy impact assessment

The concept of ecosystem services as developed for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is currently the most extensive, international, scientific concept dealing with the interaction between the world's ecosystems and human well-being. The fundamental asset is seen in the relevancy of the concept at the science–policy interface. Albeit, the mainstreaming of ecosystem services into policy making requires a framework that allows the transition of the scientific concept into the rationale of policy making. We hypothesize that the procedure of policy impact assessment is a suitable venue for this transition. This brings up two questions: 1) where in the process of policy impact assessment can ecosystem services be mainstreamed? 2) How can the impact on ecosystem services properly be accounted for? In this paper we distinguish two groups of policy cases: explicit cases directly addressing ecosystem services, and implicit cases of policies that follow other purposes but may have unintended impacts on ecosystem services as a side effect. The second group covers a wide range of policies for which we set out a framework for mainstreaming of ecosystem services. The framework is exemplary designed for the instrument of ex-ante impact assessment at European policy making level. We reveal that the two concepts of the MA and of the European policy impact assessment are indeed compatible, which makes the integration of the ecosystem service concept possible. We conclude that the linkage of the scientifically validated concept of ecosystem services with the policy concept of impact assessment has the potential of improving the credibility of the latter.     

Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations as to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner.     

Assessing the Impact of Carbon Tax Differentiation in the European Union

To what extent do the welfare costs associated with the implementation of the Burden Sharing Agreement in the European Union depend on sectoral allocation of emissions rights? What are the prospects for strategic climate policy to favor domestic production? This paper attempts to answer those questions using a CGE model featuring a detailed representation of the European economies. First, numerical simulations show that equalizing marginal abatement costs across domestic sectors greatly reduces the burden of the emissions constraint but also that other allocations may be preferable for some countries because of pre-existing tax distortions. Second, we show that the effect of a single country's attempt to undertake a strategic policy to limit impacts on its domestic energy-intensive industries has mixed effects. Exempting energy-intensive industries from the reduction program is a costly solution to maintain the international competitiveness of these industries; a tax-cum-subsidy approach is shown to be better than exemption policy to sustain exports. The welfare impact either policy – exemption or subsidy – on other European countries is likely to be small because of general equilibrium effects.     

The personal CO2 calculator: A modeling tool for Participatory Integrated Assessment methods

Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO₂ Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Joint prevention and control mechanism for air pollution regulations in China: A policy simulation approach with evolutionary game

China's environmentalism with autocratic characteristics has far-reaching effects for fighting air pollution effectively. Political blue sky is unsustainable because conflict of interest in China's authoritarian environmentalism leads to failure of joint prevention and control in air pollution regulations. This study aims to explore policy mechanisms that would integrate intergovernmental join efforts in air pollution control. A non-cooperative tripartite evolutionary game is employed to model the dynamic interactions among the central government, Beijing municipality, and local governments for fighting air pollution. A double-payment with dual-supervision mechanism is proposed for air pollution control in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. Simulations are conducted to examine the effectiveness of air pollution regulations involving multiple policy instruments for yielding the ideal outcome. It is shown that appropriate coordination of these policy instruments can address the intergovernmental challenge in collective action against air pollution. In addition, two long-term scenarios per the Porter hypothesis are investigated regarding environmental tax reform and enterprise innovations. It is found that such long-term inspirations can improve regulatory flexibility and efficacy. The double-payment with dual-supervision mechanism can effectively engage all governmental stakeholders for promoting sustainable air pollution governance in China. From a methodology perspective, policy simulations in an evolutionary game framework provide a novel addition to the research toolkit for policy studies.     

Linking ecosystem services to strategic environmental assessment in development policies

This paper first, introduces the concept of mainstreaming ecosystem services by showing its relevance for development planning. Second, it presents the role and importance of strategic environmental assessment in designing and implementation of development policy. Third, the paper sets-out the concept of economic valuation of ecosystem services by discussing what it means and what is at stake if valuation of ecosystem services is ignored in the process of development policy making. The methods of capturing economic contribution of ecosystem services at policy level are discussed with examples in the paper.The main focus of this paper is how ecosystem services can be used in policy scale environmental impact assessment. The paper argues that ecosystem services can be an appropriate indicator to weight developmental policies, programs and plans to ensure the consideration of environmental balancing at the policy level. The paper suggests that the roles of ecosystem services in macroeconomic policies including ecosystem accounting, poverty alleviation and employment generation can be used to link environmental policies and SEA with development policies for a successful impact assessment at policy and program levels. By building upon the various contemporary initiatives within UNEP and outside, the paper in its synthesis section, flags-up necessary knowledge gaps, challenges and lessons learned in integrating values of ecosystem services in strategic environmental assessments.     

Mitigation Costs in a Globalized World: Climate Policy Analysis with REMIND-R

Within this paper, we present the novel hybrid model REMIND-R and its application in a climate policy context based on the EU target to avoid a warming of the Earth’s atmosphere by more than 2°C compared to the pre-industrial level. This paper aims to identify necessary long-term changes in the energy system and the magnitude of costs to attain such a climate protection target under different designs of the post-2012 climate policy regime. The regional specification of mitigation costs is analyzed in the context of globalization where regions are linked by global markets for emission permits, goods, and several resources. From simulation experiments with REMIND-R, it turns out that quite different strategies of restructuring the energy system are pursued by the regions. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the variance of mitigation costs is higher across regions than across policy regimes. First-order impacts, in particular, reduced rents from trade in fossil resources, prevail regardless of the design of the policy regime.     

An Application of the Pump-to-Fill Policy for Management of Urban Stormwater

We consider the management of urban stormwater in two connected dams. Stormwater generated by local rainfall flows into a capture dam and is subsequently pumped into a similar sized holding dam. We assume random gross inflow and constant demand. If we wish to minimise overflow from the system then the optimal management policy is to pump as much water as possible each day from the capture dam to the holding dam without allowing the holding dam to overflow. We shall refer to this policy as the pump-to-fill policy. The model is based on the Parafield stormwater management system in the City of Salisbury (CoS) but assumes constant demand instead of level dependent outflow. If there is insufficient water in the holding dam to meet the desired daily demand then all water in the holding dam is used and the shortfall is obtained from other sources. CoS, in suburban Adelaide in South Australia, is recognised in local government circles as a world leader in urban stormwater management. The water is supplied to local industry to replace regular mains water and is also used to restore and maintain urban wetlands. In mathematical terms the pump-to-fill policy defines a Markov chain with a large transition matrix and a characteristic regular block structure. We use specialised Matrix Analytic Methods to decompose the event space and find simplified equations for the steady state probability vector. In this way we enable an elementary solution procedure which we illustrate by solving the modified Parafield problem. The optimal nature of the pump-to-fill policy is established in a recent paper by Pearce et al. (JIMO 3(2):313–320, 2007). The purpose of the current study is to find optimal management policies for urban stormwater systems. Work supported by the Australian Research Council.     

主体功能区环境政策导向研究

环境政策是主体功能区区域政策的重要组成部分，从环境准入政策、环境管理政策和环境经济政策3个方面研究提出了不同主体功能区域的环境政策导向，以推动主体功能区分类别环境政策框架体系的形成。     

The mediation of environmental assessment's influence: What role for power?

Considerable empirical research has been conducted on why policy tools such as environmental assessment (EA) often appear to have ‘little effect’ (after Weiss) on policy decisions. This article revisits this debate but looks at a mediating factor that has received limited attention to-date in the context of EA — political power. Using a tripartite analytical framework, a comparative analysis of the influence and significance of power in mediating environmental policy integration is undertaken. Power is analysed, albeit partially, through an exploration of institutions that underpin social order. Empirically, the research examines the case of a new approach to policy-level EA (essentially a form of Strategic Environmental Assessment) developed by the World Bank and its trial application to urban environmental governance and planning in Dhaka mega-city, Bangladesh. The research results demonstrate that power was intimately involved in mediating the influence of the policy EA approach, in both positive (enabling) and negative (constraining) ways. It is suggested that the policy EA approach was ultimately a manifestation of a corporate strategy to maintain the powerful position of the World Bank as a leading authority on international development which focuses on knowledge generation. Furthermore, as constitutive of an institution and reflecting the worldviews of its proponents, the development of a new approach to EA also represents a significant power play. This leads us to, firstly, emphasise the concepts of strategy and intentionality in theorising how and why EA tools are employed, succeed and fail; and secondly, reflect on the reasons why power has received such limited attention to-date in EA scholarship.     

Optimal Carbon Capture and Storage Policies

The IPCC recommends the use of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies in order to achieve the Kyoto environmental goals. This paper sheds light on this issue by assessing the optimal strategy regarding the long-term use of CCS technologies. The aim is to analyze the optimal CCS policy when the sequestration rate is endogenous, being therefore one specific tool of the environmental policy. We develop a simple growth model to identify the main driving forces that should determine the optimal CCS policy. We show that, under some conditions on the cost of extractions, CCS may be a long-term solution to curb carbon emissions. We also show that over time the social planner will choose to decrease the rate of capture and sequestration. We then derive the decentralized equilibrium outcome by considering the programs of the fossil resource-holder and of the representative consumer. Finally, we determine the optimal environmental policy, i.e. the carbon tax scheme, as well as the dynamics of the fossil fuel price needed to implement it.