Modelling temporal and spatial changes of PCBs in fish tissue from Lake Huron

A model has been developed to assess temporal and spatial changes in the concentration of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contaminant in whole fish from Lake Huron during the years 1980 to 2004. The model uses log PCB concentration as the response variable and includes time trend, within-lake variability and dependence on age, weight and length as explanatory variables. A preliminary examination of the data revealed that some values are recorded as below detection limits (thus leading to the left censoring), and the PCB concentration appears to show declines in latter years. To this end, parametric log-location-scale regression models used in survival analysis were employed. It has been found that the Weibull model yields a better fit than the log-logistic or the log-normal models. The analysis provides strong evidence that, starting in 1996, the level of PCB concentration showed steady decline, which is most contributed by the Canadian and US governments?? actions carried out earlier to reduce the load of toxic contaminants to the Great Lakes. Spatially, fish from the north of the lake is less contaminated than fish from the south. The pattern and magnitude of the estimated spatial and temporal trends can provide useful information regarding the safety of fish consumption, the setting of regularity limits, the identifiability of PCB sources and the effects of remedial actions in the future. In addition, the developed model is not restricted to the current application but could be used for the analysis of other contaminants.     

Estimating contaminant attenuation half-lives in alluvial groundwater systems

One aspect of describing contamination in an alluvial aquifer is estimating changes in concentrations over time. A variety of statistical methods are available for assessing trends in contaminant concentrations. We present a method that extends trend analysis to include estimating the coefficients for the exponential decay equation and calculating contaminant attenuation half-lives. The conceptual model for this approach assumes that the rate of decline is proportional to the contaminant concentration in an aquifer. Consequently, the amount of time to remove a unit quantity of the contaminant inventory from an aquifer lengthens as the concentration decreases. Support for this conceptual model is demonstrated empirically with log-transformed time series of contaminant data. Equations are provided for calculating system attenuation half-lives for non-radioactive contaminants. For radioactive contaminants, the system attenuation half-life is partitioned into the intrinsic radioactive decay and the concentration reduction caused by aquifer processes. Examples are presented that provide the details of this approach. In addition to gaining an understanding of aquifer characteristics and changes in constituent concentrations, this method can be used to assess compliance with regulatory standards and to estimate the time to compliance when natural attenuation is being considered as a remediation strategy. A special application of this method is also provided that estimates the half-life of the residence time for groundwater in the aquifer by estimating the half life for a conservative contaminant that is no longer being released into the aquifer. Finally, the ratio of the half-life for groundwater residence time to the attenuation half-life for a contaminant is discussed as a system-scale retardation factor which can be used in analytical and numerical modeling.     

Estimating aquatic toxicity as determined through laboratory tests of great lakes sediments containing complex mixtures of environmental contaminants

We developed and evaluated a total toxic units modeling approach for predicting mean toxicity as measured in laboratory tests for Great Lakes sediments containing complex mixtures of environmental contaminants (e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, pesticides, chlorinated dioxins, and metals). The approach incorporates equilibrium partitioning and organic carbon control of bioavailability for organic contaminants and acid volatile sulfide (AVS) control for metals, and includes toxic equivalency for planar organic chemicals. A toxic unit is defined as the ratio of the estimated pore-water concentration of a contaminant to the chronic toxicity of that contaminant, as estimated by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Ambient Water Quality Criteria (AWQC). The toxic unit models we developed assume complete additivity of contaminant effects, are completely mechanistic in form, and were evaluated without any a posteriori modification of either the models or the data from which the models were developed and against which they were tested. A linear relationship between total toxic units, which included toxicity attributable to both iron and un-ionized ammonia, accounted for about 88% of observed variability in mean toxicity; a quadratic relationship accounted for almost 94%. Exclusion of either bioavailability components (i.e., equilibrium partitioning control of organic contaminants and AVS control of metals) or iron from the model substantially decreased its ability to predict mean toxicity. A model based solely on un-ionized ammonia accounted for about 47% of the variability in mean toxicity. We found the toxic unit approach to be a viable method for assessing and ranking the relative potential toxicity of contaminated sediments.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Dioxin uptake by Indian plant species

Dioxins like various gaseous pollutants and aerosols can be scavenged by appropriate vegetative greenbelts. Based on their stomatal properties and the models for contaminant uptake, uptake of dioxin (2,3,7,8-TCDD) by three important Indian plant species, viz. Eugenia jambolana (Jamun), Azadirachta indica (Neem) and Ficus religiosa (Peepal), has been estimated. 2,3,7,8-TCDD is a contaminant with severe harmful ecological ramifications. Computations show that Ficus religiosa has highest uptake capacity. The present exercise has its utility in designing appropriate green-belts for mitigating adverse environmental and human health impacts due to dioxins. This can be an effective management option for mitigating the damages caused by dioxins.     

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR KARST AQUIFERS: (1) ESTIMATING KARST CONDUIT-FLOW PARAMETERS

Quantitative ground-water tracing of conduit-dominated karst aquifers allows for reliable and practical interpretation of karst ground-water flow. Insights into the hydraulic geometry of the karst aquifer may be acquired that otherwise could not be obtained by such conventional methods as potentiometric-surface mapping and aquifer testing. Contamination of karst aquifers requires that a comprehensive tracer budget be performed so that karst conduit hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters be obtained. Acquisition of these parameters is necessary for estimating contaminant fate-and-transport. A FORTRAN computer program for estimating total tracer recovery from tracer-breakthrough curves is proposed as a standard method. Estimated hydraulic-flow parameters include mean residence time, mean flow velocity, longitudinal dispersivity, Peclet number, Reynolds number, and Froude number. Estimated geometric parameters include karst conduit sinuous distance, conduit volume, cross-sectional area, diameter, and hydraulic depth. These parameters may be used to (1) develop structural models of the aquifer, (2) improve aquifer resource management, (3) improve ground-water monitoring systems design, (4) improve aquifer remediation, and (5) assess contaminant fate-and-transport. A companion paper demonstrates the use of these hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters in a surface-water model for estimating contaminant fate-and-transport in a karst conduit. Two ground-water tracing studies demonstrate the utility of this program for reliable estimation of necessary karst conduit hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters.     

A statistical F test for the natural attenuation of contaminants in groundwater

Natural attenuation (NA) is a catchall explanation for the overall decay and slowed movement of the contaminants in the subsurface. One direct support to NA is to demonstrate that contaminant concentrations from monitoring wells located near the source are decreasing over time. The decrease is summarily expressed in terms of an apparent half-life that is determinedfrom the line best fitting the observed log-transformed concentration data and time. This simple (time-only) decay modelassumes other factors are invariant, and so is flawed when complicating factors – such as a fluctuating water table – are present. A history of the water-table fluctuation can track changes in important NA factors like recharge, groundwater flow direction and velocity, as well as other non-NA factors like volume of water in and purged from the well before a sample is collected. When the trend in the concentrations is better associated with the water table rising or falling, any conclusionabout degradation rate may be premature. We develop simple regressions to predict contaminant concentration (c) by two line models: one involving time (c c(t)), and another involving groundwater elevation (c c(z)). We develop a third model that includesboth factors (c c(t, z)). Using an F-test to compare the fits to the models, we determine which modelis statistically better in explaining the observed concentrations. We applied the test to sites where benzene degradation rates had previously been estimated. The F-testcan be used to determine the suitability of applying non-parametric statistics, like the Mann-Kendall, to the concentration data, because the result from the F-test canindicate instability of the contaminant plume that may bemasked when the water table fluctuates.     

A method for monitoring ground water quality near waste storage facilities

A practical optimization approach developed in this paper derives effective monitoring configurations for detecting contaminants in ground water. The approach integrates numerical simulation of contaminant transport and mathematical programming. Well sites identified by the methodology can be monitored to establish the occurrence of a contaminant release before a plume migrates to a regulatory compliance boundary. Monitoring sites are established along several horizons located between the downgradient margin of a contaminant source and a compliance boundary. A horizon can form an effective line of defense against contaminant migration to the compliance boundary if it is spanned (covered) by a sufficient number of sites to yield a well spacing that is equal to or less than a maximum value established by numerical modeling. The objective function of the integer programming model formulation expresses the goals of: (1) covering a maximum number of siting horizons, and (2) allocating wells to the single most effective horizon. The latter is determined from well spacing requirements and the width of the zone of potential contaminant migration traversed by the horizon. The methodology employs a highly tractable linear programming model formulation, and the user is not required to predefine a set of potential well sites. These attributes can facilitate its implementation in practice.     

Some considerations on the use of simple box models of contaminant fate in soils

A simple box model computing time-averaged concentrations in soil and water of contaminants such as pesticides, following a pulse emission under the assumption of constant removal rates, is presented and evaluated against a benchmark model and some lysimeter experiments representative of different soil and climate settings in Europe. The simple box model allows capturing to some extent the trends of contaminant releases observed from lysimeters or predicted by the benchmark model. This suggests that the correct order of magnitude of environmental concentrations and loads of contaminants can be described as a first approximation by a very simple back-of-the-envelope calculation. In the calculation, the time lag between contaminant application and the start of runoff or leaching should be considered. In the absence of more detailed information, repeating the calculation for the extreme cases of zero and one month lag yields a reasonably realistic range, and the geometric mean of the two is suggested as a first guess estimate. This configures a practical approach for the screening of contaminant losses especially suited for the mapping of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) for assessment at broad scale (such as continental Europe, a country or a large catchment), where contingent determinants of contaminant fate tend to be averaged out and use of more detailed models usually promises to yield little improvement of PECs.     

Uncertainty based optimal monitoring network design for a chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminated site

An application of a newly developed optimal monitoring network for the delineation of contaminants in groundwater is demonstrated in this study. Designing a monitoring network in an optimal manner helps to delineate the contaminant plume with a minimum number of monitoring wells at optimal locations at a contaminated site. The basic principle used in this study is that the wells are installed where the measurement uncertainties are minimum at the potential monitoring locations. The development of the optimal monitoring network is based on the utilization of contaminant concentration data from an existing initial arbitrary monitoring network. The concentrations at the locations that were not sampled in the study area are estimated using geostatistical tools. The uncertainty in estimating the contaminant concentrations at such locations is used as design criteria for the optimal monitoring network. The uncertainty in the study area was quantified by using the concentration estimation variances at all the potential monitoring locations. The objective function for the monitoring network design minimizes the spatial concentration estimation variances at all potential monitoring well locations where a monitoring well is not to be installed as per the design criteria. In the proposed methodology, the optimal monitoring network is designed for the current management period and the contaminant concentration data estimated at the potential observation locations are then used as the input to the network design model. The optimal monitoring network is designed for the consideration of two different cases by assuming different initial arbitrary existing data. Three different scenarios depending on the limit of the maximum number of monitoring wells that can be allowed at any period are considered for each case. In order to estimate the efficiency of the developed optimal monitoring networks, mass estimation errors are compared for all the three different scenarios of the two different cases. The developed methodology is useful in coming up with an optimal number of monitoring wells within the budgetary limitations. The methodology also addresses the issue of redundancy, as it refines the existing monitoring network without losing much information of the network. The concept of uncertainty-based network design model is useful in various stages of a potentially contaminated site management such as delineation of contaminant plume and long-term monitoring of the remediation process.     

An investigation of heavy metal and migration through groundwater from the landfill area of Eskisehir in Turkey

This paper was conducted in order to determine the groundwater and soil pollution within and around the landfill of Eskisehir, Turkey. In this paper, mud, leachate and groundwater samples were collected seasonally a year from near Eskisehir landfill-site to investigate the possible impact of leachate which affects soil and groundwater quality. Concentrations of various heavy metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Mn, Co, Pb, Cr, Ni and Mo) were determined in mud, leachate and groundwater samples. In addition, the heavy metal transportation infiltrated from landfill through a porous medium into the groundwater was modelled in order to determine the potential groundwater pollution caused by the leachate of the landfill. The modelling of the contaminant transportation was carried out by using a multiflow computer programme which simulates the distribution of heavy metal concentrations. As a result of this study, the distribution of the contaminant concentration was modelled and determined with respect to time and distance. Hence, the contaminant concentrations were determined at any time interval according to distance. The heavy metal contamination in groundwater does not affect the wells found at far points from the source in a short time, e.g. 10, 20 and 30 days according to the obtained experimental results. When the time intervals extended more than 1 year, heavy metal concentrations decrease with distance but the concentration of the contamination increases when it gets closer to the pollution source. In this study, the potential contamination of groundwater was effectively estimated.