基于PHAST的甲醇储罐定量风险分析

基于甲醇在储存中可能存在的各种泄漏事故类型,结合挪威船级社(DNV)定量风险分析软件SAFETI中的PHAST模块,分析了甲醇的危险特性以及储存中泄漏事故危险性,并运用PHAST对甲醇储罐发生泄漏后的火灾、爆炸事故后果及风险进行定量风险评价,模拟预测事故后果及风险。通过模拟分析,得出事故影响程度的计算机模拟图表和报告,并提出了防止和减轻事故危害的措施,从而为甲醇罐区的安全提供指导。     

高硫天然气集输站场泄漏事故后果模拟

某集输站场的天然气中含有大量的H2S,一旦管道或设备腐蚀泄漏,将会造成非常严重的后果.针对潜在的中毒、火灾和爆炸后果的危险性,建立各种后果的数学模型,用DNV公司的PHAST软件模拟了天然气发生泄漏后所造成各种后果的影响范围及危害程度,并确定出对于高含硫天然气泄漏后果影响最严重的模型.     

氯气储罐泄漏扩散范围的主要影响因素

本文使用PHAST软件,模拟了氯气泄漏的事故后果,分析了液氯储罐泄漏孔径、泄漏时间、气象条件等不同状况下对事故后果的影响。通过泄漏事故后果模拟结果可以看出,设定的典型泄漏场景下,泄漏孔径和气象条件对半致死浓度最大扩散范围影响较大。研究结果可为安全生产应急救援提供数据和参考。     

液氨装卸站泄漏事故分析及后果模拟

通过搜集大最液氨泄漏事故,统计分析了液氨泄漏事故的种类和原因,并针对发生事故频率高危害大的液氯装卸站,分析了造成液氰装卸软管泄漏的各种原因;采用挪威船级社(DNV)的PHAST软件分析了装卸软管泄漏和破裂时液氨泄漏的危害范围,提出了控制和预防该类事故的安全措施.     

PHAST在LPG储存条件分析中的应用

分别分析了LPG常温加压和低温常压储存的不同特点和LPG储存过程中的危险性和各种可能出现的火灾爆炸事故后果;设定了常见的LPG储存泄漏时效模式,运用PHAST软件模拟分析了LPG常温加压和低温常压储存的各种火灾爆炸事故的危害范围;比较两种储存条件下的危害后果,得出了LPG低温常压储存具有更高的安全性和经济性。     

SAFETI在氨泄漏事故定量评价中的应用

应用挪威船级社(DNV)的风险评估软件SAFETI,对事故模拟过程中各种参数的选择方法进行了较详细的描述。针对液氨储罐发生灾难性破裂事故建立相应的评价模型,对氨泄漏的毒性危害后果及风险进行了定量评价,分析发生泄漏事故后氨的扩散距离及影响规模,提出人员疏散和撤离方式的建议,为事故的应急救援工作提供了技术指导和理论依据,最大程度地降低氨泄漏事故造成的危害。     

浮式LNG平台串靠卸载泄漏后果影响分析

浮式LNG生产储卸装置(FLNG)作为新兴的深海气田生产装置,集天然气生产、液化、储存和装卸功能于一身,其卸载方式主要有旁靠卸载和串靠卸载2种,其中串靠卸载因能适应恶劣海况而备受深海作业欢迎,但串靠卸载的泄漏后果和影响尚不明确,因此研究恶劣海况下LNG串靠卸载的泄漏风险及后果尤为迫切和重要。考虑海上极端气象条件,采用DNV公司的PHAST软件,定量计算FLNG串靠卸载方式在卸载臂发生小孔、中孔、大孔泄漏及全尺寸破裂时,LNG泄漏后产生的具有火灾爆炸危险性的蒸汽隔离区域,根据伤害阈值明确LNG导致人员低温冻伤和窒息的最小距离,并对可能发生的喷射火、池火和蒸汽云爆炸等恶劣事故造成的后果进行预测。     

面向液氨泄漏应急救援区域的XGBoost预测方法研究

液氨发生泄漏事故后，随着扩散距离的增加，会对人员和环境造成严重的危害。为便于发生泄漏事故后，快速展开应急救援工作，对液氨泄漏事故应急救援区域预测方法开展研究。通过PHAST(Process Hazard Analysis Software Tool)软件模拟液氨泄漏事故工况，建立基于极端梯度提升(Extreme Gradient Boosting XGBoost)的液氨泄漏应急救援区域预测模型。利用网格搜索结合K折交叉验证进行超参数调优，并与随机森林、决策树模型性能进行对比分析。研究结果显示：以预测ERPG-2标准下液氨泄漏扩散距离为例，XGBoost模型预测性能最佳；与决策树和随机森林相比，XGBoost模型的E_MAPE分别减少了4.19个百分点和2.37个百分点，E_RMSE分别减少了66.74和2.93;基于优化后XGBoost模型液氨泄漏事故应急救援区域预测模型，预测结果R²为0.997 8,E_RMSE为50.37,E_MAPE为2.61%,基本满足工程实践应用。     

丙烯腈道路运输泄漏模拟分析及对策

为完善实际救援过程中丙烯腈泄漏事故的应急方案,利用事故后果模型软件(PHAST)模拟丙烯腈运输过程中在2种天气条件下镀锌包装铁桶和罐式集装箱的侧翻、碰撞、腐蚀泄漏事故的泄漏范围、泄漏时间、持续时间等;将模拟结果与实际情况进行对比,验证模拟结果的合理性,并编制应急方案。研究表明:大部分事故泄漏迅速,影响范围大,应在事故发生2 h内完成人员救援;对于罐式集装箱泄漏,人员疏散以距离事故处3 km为宜;对于镀锌包装铁桶的泄漏,人员疏散以距事故处1 km为宜。     

氯化氢事故性泄漏扩散的后果模拟分析

通过对1起BOC(叔丁氧羰基)生产中误操作造成的氯化氢泄漏事故的后果模拟分析,说明扩散模型与后果伤害模型对预测事故伤亡后果和人员应急响应策略选择的作用.首先确定事故中氯化氢的泄漏量和泄漏方式,采用高斯烟团模型模拟扩散过程,利用室内外换气公式,得出室内外氯化氢气体质量浓度随时间变化的关系,然后结合概率函数法得出室内外暴露剂量以及概率变量随时间变化的关系.模拟结果表明,室内外的概率变量都小于-7,因此人员死亡概率为0,与事故实际造成的后果基本相符.因此,选择相应的扩散模型与后果伤害模型对毒气泄漏事故进行后果模拟分析,能定量确定泄漏事故对特定范围内造成的危险程度,预测事故伤亡后果.     

Key airborne concentrations of chemicals for emergency response planning in HAZMAT road transportation- margin of safety or survival

The release of chemicals due to road transportation accidents could have adverse consequences such as fatality, physical and financial loss and environmental damage. The purpose of this study was to determine the suitable margin of safety/survival of individuals in HAZMAT road transportation accidents for use in Emergency Response Planning (ERP). In this study, at first, the safety margin and survival margin were defined and proposed. Then, as a case study, the chemical tanker trucks in Iran's road transport fleet were investigated and the full bore rupture of the tanker trucks was considered as the selective scenario. Eventually, safety margin and survival margin were determined using ALOHA and PHAST software and the Chemical Exposure Index (CEI). The results showed that using the CEI, among the selected chemicals, ammonia, chlorine and 1,3-butadiene had the highest chemical release potential with the exposure indices of 597, 548 and 284, respectively, and need further investigation. The possible safety margin obtained in this study was distances over 5100 m (using ALOHA software for ammonia) and 10,983 m (using PHAST software for chlorine). On the other hand, the survival margin was distances over 980 m away from the accident area (using ALOHA software for ammonia) and 620 m away from the accident area (using the PHAST software for chlorine). The results of this study indicate that determining the safety and survival margins surrounding the tanker trucks and containers of chemicals is a critical issue for the emergency response planning and determining the standards of road's safety and survival margins. On the other hand, due to the obtainment of different results by various methods and software, in road accidents, the highest hazard distance is suggested to be considered to determine the safety margin (distances longer than 10,983 m) and survival margin (distances longer than 980 m) for ERP, regardless of the type of used material and software.     

Worst-case identification of gas dispersion for gas detector mapping using dispersion modeling

To quickly and accurately quantify the material release in process units, gas detectors may be placed according to the results of gas dispersion modeling. DNV's PHAST software is one of the most useful and reliable tools for material dispersion modeling. In this software, fluid dispersion is modeled based on the process conditions, the weather conditions and the specifications of the material release point. However, varying weather conditions throughout the year and the exact determination of the release point on the plot plan and the release elevation are problematic; these issues cause the results to be non-exact and non-integrated. Choosing the most appropriate conditions is challenging. In this paper, a scheme was provided to select the most appropriate conditions for gas dispersion modeling. This scheme approaches modeling based on the worst-case scenario (the situation in which the dispersed gas reaches the detector later in comparison to the other cases). Therefore, different weather conditions, release elevations and release points on the plot plan were modeled for an absorber tower of the Gonbadli Dehydration Unit of the Khangiran Refinery. The worst case of each release condition was then chosen. Finally, gas detectors were placed using the gas dispersion modeling results based on the worst-case scenario.     

基于多米诺效应的输油管道重大事故后果分析

针对近年来不断发生的输油管道重大事故,引入多米诺效应理论分析输油管道事故后果。首先依据多米诺效应机理,建立输油管道重大事故多米诺效应模型,然后采用PHAST软件确定初始事故影响范围,运用设备损坏概率和人员伤亡概率模型计算初始事故对周围设备和个体的影响概率,从而可以从设备损坏、人员伤亡和事故影响范围三个方面定量分析输油管道的事故后果。研究结果对制定输油管道重大事故应急抢险方案,避免事故影响范围进一步扩大具有理论指导意义。     

基于API 581的燃烧与爆炸后果分析方法研究

为了研究基于风险的检验（RBI）中燃烧、爆炸后果分析方法在实际应用中的效果,以API 581为基础,介绍了Level 1分析法、Level 2分析法及分析流程;然后,以油气分离器为例,根据API 581推荐的Level 1分析法编写VB程序,计算后果面积,采用PHAST软件计算Level 2分析法的后果面积;对比分析两种方法的计算结果,以及二者计算准确性的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:Level 1法比Level 2法简单,但其计算准确性较低;后果面积计算准确性的主要影响因素包括潜在泄漏质量、能量调整系数和液相后果计算面积公式选用等;应用时应兼顾两种方法的计算精度和经济效益,并选取合适的分析方法。     

基于PHAST软件的站场冷放空燃爆事故模拟分析

为提高天然气长输管道阀室冷放空作业的安全性,针对冷放空作业中的意外闪燃、爆燃事故现象,基于UDM模型并运用PHAST计算机软件,先模拟了泄放气体发生闪燃事故的影响域,分析冷放空气体闪燃范围随风速、大气稳定度、放空压力及放空速率4种影响因素而变化的趋势;后又讨论了放空速率对爆燃超压伤害范围的影响。结果表明:闪燃范围随风速、大气稳定度、放空压力及放空速率增加而递增,后两者对其影响较大,应重点关注并控制;在模拟工况下,最远轻伤距离达60 m,因此在实际工程中,控制放空速率对减轻意外燃爆事故的后果极为重要,应注重对放空作业参数的调整。     

Fire and risk analysis during loading and unloading operation in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) bottling plant

The article focuses on analyzing risks associated with the gas transfer operation in a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) bottling plant in India. The transfer operations involve transferring liquified gas from the transport tanker to the underground storage tank. Due to the rapid expansion of the cities, many LPG bottling plants in India got surrounded by residential areas and business centers. Moreover, to maintain the supply chain, the frequency of the transfer operations at the bottling plant also increased. In this scenario, an accidental release of LPG during the transfer operation may lead to various consequences such as a pool fire, a fireball, and even a catastrophic rupture of the tank with a successive explosion of its contents. In the study, the operations involved in bottling plants are classified into different hazard zones and analyzed. The probability of occurrence of events leading to an accident is modeled using modeling tools such as ALOHA and PHAST. The consequences of an accident following various events, such as jet fire, fireball, etc., are modeled, and the simulation results are compared. The thermal radiation has been estimated as 4–40 kW/m², which could adversely affect the nearby population and could result in damaging plant machinery and equipment.     

Fire and explosion hazard analysis during surface transport of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): A case study of LPG truck tanker accident in Kannur,Kerala, India

This paper presents an analysis and simulation of an accident involving a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) truck tanker in Kannur, Kerala, India. During the accident, a truck tanker hit a divider and overturned. A crack in the bottom pipe caused leakage of LPG for about 20 min forming a large vapor cloud, which got ignited, creating a fireball and a boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) situation in the LPG tank with subsequent fire and explosion. Many fatalities and injuries were reported along with burning of trees, houses, shops, vehicles, etc. In the present study, ALOHA (Area Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) and PHAST (Process Hazard Analysis Software Tool) software have been used to model and simulate the accident scenario. Modeling and simulation results of the fireball, jet flame radiation and explosion overpressure agree well with the actual loss reported from the site. The effects of the fireball scenario were more significant in comparison to that of the jet fire scenario.     

Quantitative risk analysis of fire and explosion on the top-side LNG-liquefaction process of LNG-FPSO

Since the massive use and production of fuel oil and natural gas, the excavating locations of buried energy-carrying material are moving further away from onshore, eventually requiring floating production systems like floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO). Among those platforms, LNG-FPSO will play a leading role to satisfy the global demands for the natural gas in near future; the LNG-FPSO system is designed to deal with all the LNG processing activities, near the gas field. However, even a single disaster on an offshore plant would put the whole business into danger. In this research, the risk of fire and explosion in the LNG-FPSO is assessed by quantitative risk analysis, including frequency and consequence analyses, focusing on the LNG liquefaction process (DMR cycle). The consequence analysis is modeled by using a popular analysis tool PHAST. To assess the risk of this system, 5 release model scenarios are set for the LNG and refrigerant leakages from valves, selected as the most probable scenarios causing fire and explosion. From the results, it is found that the introduction of additional protection methods to reduce the effect of fire and explosion under ALARP criteria is not required, and two cases of the selection of independent protection layers are recommended to meet the SIL level of failure rate for safer design and operation in the offshore environment.     

含硫天然气净化厂硫化氢泄漏分析及对策

以川东北某含硫天然气净化厂为对象,通过分析该净化厂的处理工艺及可能造成泄漏的各种原因,确定了硫化氢泄漏危险较高的生产单元。通过工艺压力、流量、物料组分的比对,选取了脱硫单元原料气和硫磺回收单元酸性气作为模拟泄漏物料。对该厂所在地的气象条件和厂区的地形地貌进行了调查,净化厂当地近5年风速、云量统计表明低风速和多云为主导天气,将D1.5m/s作为模拟硫化氢泄漏扩散的典型气象条件。采用了美国石油学会(API)推荐地面粗糙度长度。运用PHAST软件计算了在典型气象条件下通过3种不同孔径泄漏1 min,5min和30min,形成的立即危及生命或健康(IDLH)范围。在典型气象条件下IDLH的下风向边界距离在41m至1190m范围内,以硫磺回收单元的大孔径泄漏为最远。以小孔泄漏为例模拟并讨论了风速、大气稳定度对硫化氢扩散的影响。为降低H2S泄漏风险提出了在线监测及联锁系统设置的要求,对避免和减少硫化氢中毒伤亡事故具有指导意义。