Predictive Model for Motorcycle Accidents at Three-Legged Priority Junctions

In conjunction with a nationwide motorcycle safety program, the provision of exclusive motorcycle lanes has been implemented to overcome link-motorcycle accidents along trunk roads in Malaysia. However, not much work has been done to address accidents at junctions involving motorcycles. This article presents the development of predictive model for motorcycle accidents at three-legged major-minor priority junctions of urban roads in Malaysia. The generalized linear modeling technique was used to develop the model. The final model reveals that motorcycle accidents are proportional to the power of traffic flow. An increase in nonmotorcycle and motorcycle flows entering the junctions is associated with an increase in motorcycle accidents. Nonmotorcycle flow on major roads had the highest effect on the probability of motorcycle accidents. Approach speed, lane width, number of lanes, shoulder width, and land use were found to be significant in explaining motorcycle accidents at the three-legged major-minor priority junctions. These findings should enable traffic engineers to specifically design appropriate junction treatment criteria for nonexclusive motorcycle lane facilities.     

Predictive model for motorcycle accidents at three-legged priority junctions

In conjunction with a nationwide motorcycle safety program, the provision of exclusive motorcycle lanes has been implemented to overcome link-motorcycle accidents along trunk roads in Malaysia. However, not much work has been done to address accidents at junctions involving motorcycles. This article presents the development of predictive model for motorcycle accidents at three-legged major-minor priority junctions of urban roads in Malaysia. The generalized linear modeling technique was used to develop the model. The final model reveals that motorcycle accidents are proportional to the power of traffic flow. An increase in nonmotorcycle and motorcycle flows entering the junctions is associated with an increase in motorcycle accidents. Nonmotorcycle flow on major roads had the highest effect on the probability of motorcycle accidents. Approach speed, lane width, number of lanes, shoulder width, and land use were found to be significant in explaining motorcycle accidents at the three-legged major-minor priority junctions. These findings should enable traffic engineers to specifically design appropriate junction treatment criteria for nonexclusive motorcycle lane facilities.     

Motorcyclist perception response time in stopping sight distance situations

One of the most effective engineering measures is the provision of an exclusive motorcycle lane that separates motorcycles from other mixed traffic to reduce traffic congestion and motorcycle crashes. Even though the existing exclusive motorcycle lanes in Malaysia reduced the incidents of motorcycle crashes with other vehicles, the design of this special motorcycle lane was based on a cross reference between a bicycle track and a highway. Thus, a suitable design guide is yet to be developed for the geometrical design of a proper and safer exclusive motorcycle lane. Safe stopping sight distance (SSD) has been recognized as a criterion for road design and should be taken into account. Motorcyclist perception response time (PRT) is the time from detection object until the rider reduces motorcycle speed in braking action is an essential component of motorcycle SSD. Two road experiments were conducted to obtain empirical values of motorcycle PRT to expected and unexpected objects. In the expected condition, 89 motorcyclists applied brake as quickly as possible following activation of a light beside the road. In the unexpected condition, 16 riders responded by braking in response to an obstacle that appeared suddenly in their lane. The mean PRT to expected and unexpected object is 0.71 s and 1.25 s respectively. The 85th percentile PRT to unexpected object is 2.12 s. This study found that most riders are capable of responding to an unexpected object along the roadway in 2.5 s or less. Therefore, PRT of 2.5 s is an appropriate value for motorcycle lane geometric design.     

Effect of novel divergence markings on conflict prevention regarding motorcycle-involved right turn accidents of mixed traffic flow

Introduction: In Taiwan, segregated traffic flow countermeasures have long been in place. Although these facilities have decreased the numbers of motorcycle left-turn collisions, right-angle collisions, and sideswipe collisions, they have also induced serious right-turn accidents. The purpose of this research was to evaluate an intervention intended to decrease conflicts and motorcycle-involved crashes. In this study, the reasons why the motorcycle accident rate is higher at intersections with slow lanes than at those without slow lanes are presented, and the theory of the self-explaining road was applied to create divergence markings for a mixed traffic flow environment. An intervention that guides motorcycles and cars into appropriate locations at intersections was applied to three intersection approaches. Method: The intervention effectiveness was evaluated by comparing the number of accidents at the intersections before and after the implementation of improvement measures. Moreover, video recordings were used to analyze the traffic distributions at the cross-sections of intersections. T-test was adopted to examine whether the traffic flows at the cross-sections of the intersections before and after the intervention were statistically different. In addition, this research applied the post-encroachment time (PET), the time between the first road user leaving the encroachment zone and the second road user arriving in it, to evaluate traffic conflicts. Finally, the PET and severity index between a straight-through motorcycle and a right-turn vehicle were analyzed. Results: PET increased by 3.2%–20.4%, and the rates of right-turn collisions, sideswipe collisions, and rear-end collisions decreased by 64.3%, 77.3%, and 61.5% respectively. Conclusions: Eliminating the slow traffic lane and setting divergence markings may not effectively cause vehicles in different driving directions to drive in the proper locations in the lanes. However, divergence markings both reduce the rate of right-turn collisions and decrease the incidence of sideswipe and rear-end collisions. Practical applications: The proposed design method may be a good design reference for countries having a high motorcycle density.     

Motorcycle conspicuity: An evaluation and synthesis of influential factors

Motorcycles are overrepresented in fatal motor vehicle accidents: The death rate for motorcycle riders of about 35 per 100,000,000 miles of travel compares with an overall vehicle death rate of 2.57 per 100,000,000 miles. In the attempt to reduce the frequency of automobile-motorcycle collisions, numerous studies have manipulated motorcycle and motorcyclist characteristics to enhance conspicuity. In this paper, we give a review of studies that examined the effectiveness of these measures. Subsequently, we take a critical look at the methods used in these studies to evaluate the effectiveness of conspicuity treatments. Furthermore, we identify factors yet to be considered in the empirical research in this area that may contribute to collisions with motorcycles. These include information-processing failures at the identification and decision stage, as well as more or less permanent factors potentially responsible for different information-processing failures. Transient factors related to the failure to detect motorcycles might include alcohol, fatigue/lack of sleep, inattention, and information overload, whereas more permanent factors might include “cognitive” conspicuity and fi eld dependence.     

Risky driving and the perception of motorcycle accident causes among chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong

Objective: The primary purposes of this study were to explore the relationship between risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles and perceived causes of motorcycle accidents, as well as their contribution to active involvement in traffic accidents among Chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong. Active involvement means the riders was likely at fault for the crash. Methods: A total of 774 motorcyclists were recruited, of whom 292 had been involved in active motorcycle accident in the previous 3?years. All were asked to fill in a questionnaire, which was developed to assess their risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle and perception of motorcycle accident causes. Results: The results of the study revealed 3 dimensions of accident causes, namely, driving-related, environment-related, and belief-related causes. These motorcycle accident causes were correlated with risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle. A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.036, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.020-1.052), perception of driving-related cause (adjusted OR: 0.941, 95% CI: 0.916-0.967), and belief-related cause (adjusted OR: 1.134, 95% CI: 1.088-1.182) were significant factors contributing to involvement in active traffic accidents by motorcycle riders after controlling for concurrent demographic variables. Conclusions: The study highlights that perceived causes of motorcycle accidents are multidimensional, including those areas related to driving, the environment, and beliefs. It substantiates previous studies that a higher degree of driving-related risk perception is related to a lower degree of risk-taking acts while driving. Further research is needed to understand why belief-related causes, sometimes called superstitions, lead riders to believe that it is beyond their ability to affect accident causation and prevention.     

Analysis of motorcycle accidents using association rule mining-based framework with parameter optimization and GIS technology

IntroductionAnalyzing key factors of motorcycle accidents is an effective method to reduce fatalities and improve road safety. Association Rule Mining (ARM) is an efficient data mining method to identify critical factors associated with injury severity. However, the existing studies have some limitations in applying ARM: (a) Most studies determined parameter thresholds of ARM subjectively, which lacks objectiveness and efficiency; (b) Most studies only listed rules with high parameter thresholds, while lacking in-depth analysis of multiple-item rules. Besides, the existing studies seldom conducted a spatial analysis of motorcycle accidents, which can provide intuitive suggestions for policymakers. Method: To address these limitations, this study proposes an ARM-based framework to identify critical factors related to motorcycle injury severity. A method for parameter optimization is proposed to objectively determine parameter thresholds in ARM. A method of factor extraction is proposed to identify individual key factors from 2-item rules and boosting factors from multiple-item rules. Geographic information system (GIS) is adopted to explore the spatial relationship between key factors and motorcycle injury severity. Results and conclusions: The framework is applied to a case study of motorcycle accidents in Victoria, Australia. Fifteen attributes are selected after data preprocessing. 0.03 and 0.7 are determined as the best thresholds of support and confidence in ARM. Five individual key factors and four boosting factors are identified to be related to fatal injury. Spatial analysis is conducted by GIS to present hot spots of motorcycle accidents. The proposed framework has been validated to have better performance on parameter optimization and rule analysis in ARM. Practical applications: The hot spots of motorcycle accidents related to fatal factors are presented in GIS maps. Policymakers can refer to those maps straightforwardly when decision making. This framework can be applied to various kinds of traffic accidents to improve the performance of severity analysis.     

Motorcycle crashes potentially preventable by three crash avoidance technologies on passenger vehicles

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify and quantify the motorcycle crash population that would be potential beneficiaries of 3 crash avoidance technologies recently available on passenger vehicles.

Methods: Two-vehicle crashes between a motorcycle and a passenger vehicle that occurred in the United States during 2011–2015 were classified by type, with consideration of the functionality of 3 classes of passenger vehicle crash avoidance technologies: frontal crash prevention, lane maintenance, and blind spot detection. Results were expressed as the percentage of crashes potentially preventable by each type of technology, based on all known types of 2-vehicle crashes and based on all crashes involving motorcycles.

Results: Frontal crash prevention had the largest potential to prevent 2-vehicle motorcycle crashes with passenger vehicles. The 3 technologies in sum had the potential to prevent 10% of fatal 2-vehicle crashes and 23% of police-reported crashes. However, because 2-vehicle crashes with a passenger vehicle represent fewer than half of all motorcycle crashes, these technologies represent a potential to avoid 4% of all fatal motorcycle crashes and 10% of all police-reported motorcycle crashes.

Discussion: Refining the ability of passenger vehicle crash avoidance systems to detect motorcycles represents an opportunity to improve motorcycle safety. Expanding the capabilities of these technologies represents an even greater opportunity. However, even fully realizing these opportunities can affect only a minority of motorcycle crashes and does not change the need for other motorcycle safety countermeasures such as helmets, universal helmet laws, and antilock braking systems.     

基于最优尺度Logit模型的交通事故形态致因分析

为剖析典型交通事故形态致因,在利用最优尺度分析法诊断交通事故形态致因共线性的基础上,筛选关键影响因素,构建无序多分类Logit交通事故致因模型并对模型进行参数标定,并选择100个交通事故样本对模型进行精度验证,该模型相对误差仅为4.0％,能够较为准确地分析典型交通事故形态致因.研究结果表明:路侧及中央隔离设施、照明是事...     

Motorcycle helmet effect on a per-crash basis in Thailand and the United States

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of motorcycle helmets seen in prospective on-the-street motorcycle accident investigations. The data are drawn from two detailed, in-depth studies of motorcycle accidents, in which trained investigators collected extensive accident evidence on-scene immediately after the crash. This article compares helmeted and unhelmeted motorcycle riders on a per-accident basis for fatality rates, the rate of serious (AIS > 2) brain injuries among survivors, or an outcome that involved either of the two. METHODS: Nine hundred motorcycle crashes in Los Angeles and 969 crashes in Thailand were investigated in detail at the accident scenes, including photos of vehicles, skids, damage, and sometimes the rider. Helmets were collected and injury information was obtained from riders and care providers. This evidence was then used to reconstruct collision events to identify speeds, precrash motions, collision contacts, injury causation, and helmet performance. RESULTS: In both studies, approximately 6% of riders were killed and 20-25% were hospitalized. Overall, unhelmeted riders were two to three times as likely to be killed, and three times as likely to suffer either death or survival with AIS > 2 brain injury. Unhelmeted survivors had three to four times as many AIS > 2 brain injuries as helmeted riders on a per-crash basis. Nearly 100% of riders with AIS > 4 somatic injuries died. Such injuries were 30% of Thailand fatalities and 57% of L.A. fatalities, but only about 2-3% of the overall accident population. Among the 97-98% of riders with AIS < 5 somatic injuries, helmet use could prevent about three-fourths of fatalities and brain injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Helmets were extremely effective in preventing brain injury and death in 97% of the accident population in less-than-extreme crashes. Helmet use cannot prevent all fatalities because many of those killed succumb to below-the-neck injuries that a helmet cannot prevent.     

An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models

Problem: Motorcycles constitute about 19% of all motorized vehicles in Singapore and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 40% of total fatalities. Method: In this paper, an ordered probit model is used to examine factors that affect the injury severity of motorcycle accidents and the severity of damage to the vehicle for those crashes. Nine years of motorcycle accident data were obtained for Singapore through police reports. These data included categorical assessments of the severity of accidents based on three levels. Damage severity to the vehicle was also assessed and categorized into four levels. Categorical data of this type are best analyzed using ordered probit models because they require no assumptions regarding the ordinality of the dependent variable, which in this case is the severity score. Various models are examined to determine what factors are related to increased injury and damage severity of motorcycle accidents. Results: Factors found to lead to increases in the probability of severe injuries include the motorcyclist having non-Singaporean nationality, increased engine capacity, headlight not turned on during daytime, collisions with pedestrians and stationary objects, driving during early morning hours, having a pillion passenger, and when the motorcyclist is determined to be at fault for the accident. Factors leading to increased probability of vehicle damage include some similar factors but also show some differences, such as less damage associated with pedestrian collisions and with female drivers. In addition, it was also found that both injury severity and vehicle damage severity levels are decreasing over time.     

基于可接受安全间距的单车道交通流模拟模型

交通流微观模拟是采用计算机对交通流进行描述及分析的方法。尤其对于复杂的交通流而言,微观模拟具有明显的优势,然而模拟的准确与否,关键在于模型的建立。笔者即是在研究我国单车道交通流特点的基础上,借鉴车道变换理论,基于驾驶员可接受的交通安全间距,分析安全变换车道的各间距之间的关系,阐述了有超车的单车道交通流模拟模型的建立方法     

Safety evaluation of joint and conventional lane merge configurations for freeway work zones

Inefficient operation of traffic in work zone areas not only leads to an increase in travel time delays, queue length, and fuel consumption but also increases the number of forced merges and roadway accidents. This study evaluated the safety performance of work zones with a conventional lane merge (CLM) configuration in Louisiana. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the crash rates for accidents involving fatalities, injuries, and property damage only (PDO) in each of the following 4 areas: (1) advance warning area, (2) transition area, (3) work area, and (4) termination area. The analysis showed that the advance warning area had higher fatality, injury, and PDO crash rates when compared to the transition area, work area, and termination area. This finding confirmed the need to make improvements in the advance warning area where merging maneuvers take place. Therefore, a new lane merge configuration, called joint lane merge (JLM), was proposed and its safety performance was examined and compared to the conventional lane merge configuration using a microscopic simulation model (VISSIM), which was calibrated with real-world data from an existing work zone on I-55 and used to simulate a total of 25 different scenarios with different levels of demand and traffic composition. Safety performance was evaluated using 2 surrogate measures: uncomfortable decelerations and speed variance. Statistical analysis was conducted to determine whether the differences in safety performance between both configurations were significant. The safety analysis indicated that JLM outperformed CLM in most cases with low to moderate flow rates and that the percentage of trucks did not have a significant impact on the safety performance of either configuration. Though the safety analysis did not clearly indicate which lane merge configuration is safer for the overall work zone area, it was able to identify the possibly associated safety changes within the work zone area under different traffic conditions.     

A case study analysis to examine motorcycle crashes in Bogota,Colombia

IntroductionContributory factors to motorcycle crashes vary among populations depending on several aspects such as the users' profiles, the composition and density of traffic, and the infrastructure features. A better understanding of local motorcycle crashes can be reached in those places where a comprehensive analysis is performed. This paper presents the results obtained from a case study analysis of 400 police records of accidents involving motorcycles in Bogota.MethodTo achieve a deeper level of understanding of how these accidents occur, we propose a systemic approach that uses available crash data. The methodology is inspired by accident prototypical scenarios, a tool for analysis developed in France.ResultsWhen grouping cases we identified three categories: solo motorcycle accidents, motorcyclist and pedestrian accidents, and accidents involving a motorcycle and another vehicle. Within these categories we undertook in-depth analyses of 32 groups of accidents obtaining valuable information to better comprehend motorcyclists' road crashes in a local context. Recurrent contributory factors in the groups of accidents include: inexperienced motorcyclists, wide urban roads that incite speeding and risky overtaking maneuvers, flowing urban roads that encourage high speed and increased interaction between vehicles, and lack of infrastructure maintenance.Practical ApplicationsThe results obtained are a valuable asset to define measures that will be conveniently adapted to the group of accident on which we want to act. The methodology exposed in this paper is applicable to the study of road crashes that involve all types of actors, not only the motorcyclists, and in contexts different than those presented in Bogota.     

事故车辆影响下的城市三车道道路交通流仿真

为探究事故车辆对城市三车道道路交通影响机制,首先,分析考虑事故车辆的城市三车道道路交通流特征;然后,构建左车道优先且考虑主动抢道和被动抢道行为的元胞自动机交通流模型;最后;研究事故持续时间td变化时事故车辆分别位于M道和R道的城市道路交通流演化。结果表明:事故车辆会形成交通瓶颈,呈现上游车辆聚集下游车辆稀疏的时空特征,诱发交通拥堵,事故车辆对三车道交通影响明显小于两车道情形;且事故车辆位于R车道对道路交通流影响比事故车辆位于M车道更小,但这种影响的差异随进车率pe增加而减小。     

Risky behaviors and helmet use among young adolescent motorcyclists in Southern Thailand

Background: In Thailand, road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for youth ages 15–19 years, with 80% of the injuries and deaths from motorcycle accidents. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of child and young adolescent motorcyclists in Hat Yai municipality and their risk behaviors. Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted between June 2011 and March 2012 in which 2,471 students, ages 8 to 18 years, were recruited from 9 primary and secondary schools in Hat Yai municipality. The questionnaire included questions on being a motorcycle rider or passenger, risky behaviors, and helmet use while riding. Results: Of the total, 1,573 (63.7%) were riders and 898 (36.3%) were pillion passengers. The majority of the riders younger than 15 years rode their motorcycle mainly only in narrow streets for a short trip. Only 30% of the riders wore a helmet every time they rode a motorcycle. About 10% of the participants riding or a passenger on a motorcycle had consumed alcohol at least once before riding their motorcycle. Multiple logistic regression analysis found that motorcycle injuries were significantly associated with speeds greater than 60 km/h, not wearing a helmet while riding, and alcohol consumption before riding (odds ratios 1.63, 1.59, and 3.09, respectively). Conclusion: Nearly two thirds of young adolescents in Hat Yai municipality were motorcycle riders. These young adolescents were at risk of traffic injuries because more than 50% of them had ridden at high speed or not worn a helmet while riding, and some of them had consumed alcohol before riding.     

高速公路货车事故成因及货车专用道分析

为减少货车对行车安全的影响,在充分考虑货车行驶理论、交通环境和驾驶员特征的基础上,就载重货车交通对高速公路运营安全的影响进行研究。其结果表明,不同车型之间的运行速度差异、超载、驾驶员不良交通行为及纵向间距不足等是造成货车交通事故的主要原因。通过分析货车事故与交通状况的关系,从工程技术可行性等角度提出了货车专用道的设计方法,以有效执行客货分行,提高高速公路运营安全水平。     

The effects of a traffic guidance scheme for auto-toll lanes on traffic safety at toll plazas

The Transport Department of the Hong Kong SAR government conducted a trial traffic guidance scheme at the plaza of a busy road tunnel. The scheme involves the placing of reflective road markings on the approach lanes to the toll plaza and the erection of a gantry sign that clearly distinguishes the auto-toll lane. The main purpose of the scheme is to improve traffic flow and traffic safety at the toll plaza. If the scheme is successful, then it will be applied to all other toll plazas in Hong Kong. We conducted an observational before-and-after study to assess the effects of the scheme. We found that the overall lane-changing rate decreased significantly by 23% (0.1 lane crossings per vehicle) at a significance level of 0.05, the pooled conflict count decreased sharply by 44% at a significance level of 0.10, and the crash count also decreased sharply by 38%. The mean travel time for non-auto-toll traffic increased significantly by 30% (8 s), whereas that of auto-toll Sunday traffic decreased by 18% (2 s). Both changes are statistically significant at a level of 0.05. The results indicate that the trial scheme provided good guidance to drivers. Traffic safety was improved, and the travel time of auto-toll traffic improved in certain periods, although at the expense of non-auto-toll traffic.     

基于事故深度调查的城市交通事故特征分析

为探索适合我国的事故数据深度采集标准,并分析城市道路交通事故特征及致因,基于《道路交通事故深度调查信息采集表》(简称采集表),调查人员随交警赴事故现场随机详细调查87起城市道路交通事故。借鉴"Haddon Matrix"思想建立致因分析矩阵系统,分析事故的致因。发现采集表对事故地点、事故形态及原因项分类更加具体、明确,女性驾驶员的事故发生率略低于男性驾驶员,驾驶员年龄超过60岁后,发生事故的危险性显著提高,"交叉口影响区"事故50%由变更车道引起,非机动车驾驶员未戴安全头盔是造成严重伤害的重要原因。     

Road traffic deaths in Brazil: rising trends in pedestrian and motorcycle occupant deaths

Objective: According to the World Health Organization, the global burden of road traffic mortality exceeds 1.27 million people annually; over 90 percent occur in low- and middle-income countries. Brazil's road traffic mortality rate of ～20 per 100,000 is significantly higher than nearby Chile or Argentina. To date, there has been very little information published on road traffic fatalities among vulnerable road users (VRUs) in Brazil. Methods: Road traffic fatality data from 2000 to 2008 were extracted from Brazil's Mortality Information System (SIM). Road traffic deaths were extracted using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) V-codes (V01-V89) and then subcategorized by VRU categories. Information was then disaggregated by gender, age, and region. Results: In 2008, 39,211 deaths due to road traffic injuries were recorded in Brazil, resulting in a crude mortality rate of 20.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. Pedestrian mortality averaged 5.46 deaths per 100,000 between 2000 and 2008. The mortality rate for elderly pedestrians (80+ years) is 20.1 per 100,000, over 10 times that of 0- to 9-year-olds. In the past decade, motorcycle occupant mortality has dramatically increased by over 300 percent from 1.5 per 100,000 in 2000 to 4.7 per 100,000 in 2008. The 20- to 29-year age group remains most affected by motorcycle deaths, with a peak fatality rate of 10.76 per 100,000 in 2008. The north and northeast regions, with the lower per capita gross domestic product (GDP), have higher proportions of VRU deaths compared with other regions. Conclusions: Vulnerable road users are contributing an increasing proportion of the road traffic fatalities in Brazil. Nationally, elderly pedestrians are at particularly high risk and motorcycle fatalities are increasing at a rapid rate. Less prosperous regions have higher proportions of VRU deaths. Understanding the epidemiology of road traffic mortality in vulnerable road user categories will better allow for targeted interventions to reduce these preventable deaths.