Predictive Model for Motorcycle Accidents at Three-Legged Priority Junctions

In conjunction with a nationwide motorcycle safety program, the provision of exclusive motorcycle lanes has been implemented to overcome link-motorcycle accidents along trunk roads in Malaysia. However, not much work has been done to address accidents at junctions involving motorcycles. This article presents the development of predictive model for motorcycle accidents at three-legged major-minor priority junctions of urban roads in Malaysia. The generalized linear modeling technique was used to develop the model. The final model reveals that motorcycle accidents are proportional to the power of traffic flow. An increase in nonmotorcycle and motorcycle flows entering the junctions is associated with an increase in motorcycle accidents. Nonmotorcycle flow on major roads had the highest effect on the probability of motorcycle accidents. Approach speed, lane width, number of lanes, shoulder width, and land use were found to be significant in explaining motorcycle accidents at the three-legged major-minor priority junctions. These findings should enable traffic engineers to specifically design appropriate junction treatment criteria for nonexclusive motorcycle lane facilities.     

Multivariate Analysis of Motorcycle Accidents and the Effects of Exclusive Motorcycle Lanes in Malaysia

This paper presents a multivariate analysis on the impact of the exclusive motorcycle lane on motorcycle accidents along the Federal Highway Route 2, Malaysia. A number of statistical models have been developed to explain the relationship of motorcycle accidents and explanatory variables relevant to motorcycle safety. The best model showed that motorcycle accidents are directly proportional to the cubic power of traffic flow and reduced by approximately 39% with the motorcycle lane. A clear benefit of this lane is observed when the traffic flow exceeds 15,000 vehicles per day per lane for motorcycle proportion of between 20% and 30%. Besides supporting the notion for motorcycle segregation, this finding provides an initial guideline on the warrants for an exclusive motorcycle lane for highly motorcycled countries in Asia.     

Motorcyclist perception response time in stopping sight distance situations

One of the most effective engineering measures is the provision of an exclusive motorcycle lane that separates motorcycles from other mixed traffic to reduce traffic congestion and motorcycle crashes. Even though the existing exclusive motorcycle lanes in Malaysia reduced the incidents of motorcycle crashes with other vehicles, the design of this special motorcycle lane was based on a cross reference between a bicycle track and a highway. Thus, a suitable design guide is yet to be developed for the geometrical design of a proper and safer exclusive motorcycle lane. Safe stopping sight distance (SSD) has been recognized as a criterion for road design and should be taken into account. Motorcyclist perception response time (PRT) is the time from detection object until the rider reduces motorcycle speed in braking action is an essential component of motorcycle SSD. Two road experiments were conducted to obtain empirical values of motorcycle PRT to expected and unexpected objects. In the expected condition, 89 motorcyclists applied brake as quickly as possible following activation of a light beside the road. In the unexpected condition, 16 riders responded by braking in response to an obstacle that appeared suddenly in their lane. The mean PRT to expected and unexpected object is 0.71 s and 1.25 s respectively. The 85th percentile PRT to unexpected object is 2.12 s. This study found that most riders are capable of responding to an unexpected object along the roadway in 2.5 s or less. Therefore, PRT of 2.5 s is an appropriate value for motorcycle lane geometric design.     

事故车辆影响下的城市三车道道路交通流仿真

为探究事故车辆对城市三车道道路交通影响机制,首先,分析考虑事故车辆的城市三车道道路交通流特征;然后,构建左车道优先且考虑主动抢道和被动抢道行为的元胞自动机交通流模型;最后;研究事故持续时间td变化时事故车辆分别位于M道和R道的城市道路交通流演化。结果表明:事故车辆会形成交通瓶颈,呈现上游车辆聚集下游车辆稀疏的时空特征,诱发交通拥堵,事故车辆对三车道交通影响明显小于两车道情形;且事故车辆位于R车道对道路交通流影响比事故车辆位于M车道更小,但这种影响的差异随进车率pe增加而减小。     

Effect of novel divergence markings on conflict prevention regarding motorcycle-involved right turn accidents of mixed traffic flow

Introduction: In Taiwan, segregated traffic flow countermeasures have long been in place. Although these facilities have decreased the numbers of motorcycle left-turn collisions, right-angle collisions, and sideswipe collisions, they have also induced serious right-turn accidents. The purpose of this research was to evaluate an intervention intended to decrease conflicts and motorcycle-involved crashes. In this study, the reasons why the motorcycle accident rate is higher at intersections with slow lanes than at those without slow lanes are presented, and the theory of the self-explaining road was applied to create divergence markings for a mixed traffic flow environment. An intervention that guides motorcycles and cars into appropriate locations at intersections was applied to three intersection approaches. Method: The intervention effectiveness was evaluated by comparing the number of accidents at the intersections before and after the implementation of improvement measures. Moreover, video recordings were used to analyze the traffic distributions at the cross-sections of intersections. T-test was adopted to examine whether the traffic flows at the cross-sections of the intersections before and after the intervention were statistically different. In addition, this research applied the post-encroachment time (PET), the time between the first road user leaving the encroachment zone and the second road user arriving in it, to evaluate traffic conflicts. Finally, the PET and severity index between a straight-through motorcycle and a right-turn vehicle were analyzed. Results: PET increased by 3.2%–20.4%, and the rates of right-turn collisions, sideswipe collisions, and rear-end collisions decreased by 64.3%, 77.3%, and 61.5% respectively. Conclusions: Eliminating the slow traffic lane and setting divergence markings may not effectively cause vehicles in different driving directions to drive in the proper locations in the lanes. However, divergence markings both reduce the rate of right-turn collisions and decrease the incidence of sideswipe and rear-end collisions. Practical applications: The proposed design method may be a good design reference for countries having a high motorcycle density.     

我国公路交通事故的现状及特征分析

根据2000—2006年全国公路交通事故统计数据,以2006年为重点,分析当前我国公路交通事故的发展形势、地区差异和事故特征。研究表明:我国的公路交通事故自2003年开始总体由快速上升转为持续下降,但高速公路和西部地区的公路交通事故仍有增长可能;与经济欠发达地区相比,经济发达地区的事故总量较大,但事故死亡率较低;国道、省道和高等级公路的事故死亡率均大幅高于其他公路;约80%的死亡事故是发生在平直、一般弯和一般坡等良好路段上的车辆互碰、碰撞行人和翻车,76%的特大事故属于坠车和正面碰撞;雾、雪等恶劣天气更易在高等级公路上引发交通事故。     

A case study analysis to examine motorcycle crashes in Bogota,Colombia

IntroductionContributory factors to motorcycle crashes vary among populations depending on several aspects such as the users' profiles, the composition and density of traffic, and the infrastructure features. A better understanding of local motorcycle crashes can be reached in those places where a comprehensive analysis is performed. This paper presents the results obtained from a case study analysis of 400 police records of accidents involving motorcycles in Bogota.MethodTo achieve a deeper level of understanding of how these accidents occur, we propose a systemic approach that uses available crash data. The methodology is inspired by accident prototypical scenarios, a tool for analysis developed in France.ResultsWhen grouping cases we identified three categories: solo motorcycle accidents, motorcyclist and pedestrian accidents, and accidents involving a motorcycle and another vehicle. Within these categories we undertook in-depth analyses of 32 groups of accidents obtaining valuable information to better comprehend motorcyclists' road crashes in a local context. Recurrent contributory factors in the groups of accidents include: inexperienced motorcyclists, wide urban roads that incite speeding and risky overtaking maneuvers, flowing urban roads that encourage high speed and increased interaction between vehicles, and lack of infrastructure maintenance.Practical ApplicationsThe results obtained are a valuable asset to define measures that will be conveniently adapted to the group of accident on which we want to act. The methodology exposed in this paper is applicable to the study of road crashes that involve all types of actors, not only the motorcyclists, and in contexts different than those presented in Bogota.     

An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.     

驾驶人视觉注意力需求与驾驶行为特性的关系

采用驾驶模拟系统平台,以不同车道类型及不同交通流状态(自由流/稳定流/不稳定流/强制流)为虚拟试验场,应用心理试验设计方法,测试得到21名被试在不同交通流状态下的视觉注意力需求及驾驶行为。对5种车道类型及4种交通流状态下被试驾驶时的视觉注意力需求特性和驾驶行为特性数据进行分析,得到不同车道不同交通流状态下的视觉注意力需求变化情况。利用多元回归方法分析了不同交通流状态下驾驶人视觉注意力需求与驾驶行为之间的关系,并构建了基于驾驶行为特性的驾驶人视觉注意力需求预测模型。结果表明,驾驶人视觉注意力需求与制动次数、油门踏板位移和车辆轨迹偏差之间存在相关关系。     

城市快速过境通道衔接节点交通风险耦合致因模型研究

为了定量分析城市快速过境通道衔接节点交通风险致因,基于2010—2017年云南发生的731起城市快速过境通道衔接节点交通事故数据,将运行风险分为人、车、路、环、管5个方面并选取耦合因素;综合使用熵权法、TOPSISI法及N-K模型,构建TOPSIS-N-K耦合度模型度量单因素、双因素及多因素耦合度,并以云南城市快速过境通道衔接节点为例进行分析验证。研究结果表明:强耦合会使风险造成的后果更严重,交通风险随耦合因素增多而升高;2010年以来衔接节点交通风险由无序向有序化发展,安全性逐年提升;风险耦合人的因素中“不良车道变换”与其他要素的耦合通常表现为强耦合,路的因素中“纵坡坡度”与其他要素耦合度较高,应加强人、路因素中车道、纵坡及限速方面规范建设。     

Cyclist casualty severity at roundabouts – To what extent do the geometric characteristics of roundabouts play a part?

Introduction: In general, priority junctions are converted into roundabouts to increase capacity and reduce vehicle accidents. However, previous research has indicated that roundabouts are dangerous for vulnerable users, especially cyclists. Method: This paper investigates which design factors influence cyclist casualty severity at give way (non-signalized) roundabouts with mixed traffic, using the UK STATS19 National dataset of cyclist casualties. First, the correlation matrix was generated to observe the relationship between variables. Second, dimension reduction was applied to geometric design variables in order to reduce the number of variables and generate the factors. Finally, the binary logistic regression method, with serious and slight casualties as dependent variables, was applied in three steps. The first Binary Logistic Regression Model (BLRM) included speed limit, sociodemographic, and meteorological conditions. The variables in the second BLRM consisted of geometric design variables. The third BLRM included the factors that were generated by dimension reduction. Results: The correlation matrix revealed that the number of lanes on approach and half width on approach were statistically significantly correlated, while the variables, such as geometric design (entry path radius, number of arms, number of flare lanes on approach, type of roundabout and number of circulating lanes), sociodemographic (casualty gender and age), speed limit and meteorologically related factors (daylight, weather and road surface condition), did not show any statistical significance. From the dimension reduction process, two main factors were identified, including Approach Capacity (Factor 1) and Size of Roundabout (Factor 2), and they were subsequently used as independent variables in the logistic regression analysis. The subsequent BLRMs showed that a higher speed limit reduces the safety for cyclists at roundabouts. The probability of a serious casualty increases by approximately five times (odds ratio 4.97) for each additional number of lanes on approach and by 4% (odds ratio 1.04) with a higher entry path radius. It was also found that Factor 2 (Approach Capacity) increases the casualty severity (odds ratio 1.86) for cyclists at roundabouts. Practical applications: While this research studied roundabouts in the UK, the methodological approach and statistical analysis techniques are applicable to other countries and the findings are likely to be of value to decision makers worldwide.     

疲劳驾驶交通事故的严重程度影响因素分析

为探究和定量分析疲劳驾驶交通事故严重程度的影响因素,以广东省1370条疲劳驾驶事故数据为基础,对比分析不同年份、时间段以及年龄段的疲劳驾驶交通事故特征;以交通事故严重程度为因变量,将其分为严重事故和非严重事故,从驾驶员年龄、驾龄、车辆类型等17个初步选择的自变量中筛选对疲劳驾驶交通事故严重程度具有显著影响的因素;采用二...     

基于可接受安全间距的单车道交通流模拟模型

交通流微观模拟是采用计算机对交通流进行描述及分析的方法。尤其对于复杂的交通流而言,微观模拟具有明显的优势,然而模拟的准确与否,关键在于模型的建立。笔者即是在研究我国单车道交通流特点的基础上,借鉴车道变换理论,基于驾驶员可接受的交通安全间距,分析安全变换车道的各间距之间的关系,阐述了有超车的单车道交通流模拟模型的建立方法     

Powered two-wheeler drivers' risk of hitting a pedestrian in towns

IntroductionThe risk of collision between pedestrians and powered two-wheelers is poorly understood today. The objective of this research is to determine the risk for powered two-wheeler drivers of hitting and injuring a pedestrian per kilometer driven in towns and to compare this risk with that run by four-wheeled vehicle drivers.MethodUsing the bodily injury accidents recorded by the police on nine roads in the city of Marseille in 2011 and a campaign of observations of powered two-wheeler traffic, we estimated the risk per kilometer driven by powered two-wheeler drivers of hitting a pedestrian and compared it with the risk run by four-wheeled vehicle drivers.ResultsThe results show that the risk for powered two-wheeler drivers of hitting and injuring a pedestrian is significantly higher than the risk run by four-wheeled vehicle drivers. On the nine roads studied, it is on average 3.33 times higher (95% CI: 1.63; 6.78). Taking four more years into account made it possible to consolidate these results and to tighten the confidence interval.ConclusionThere does indeed seem to be problems in the interactions between pedestrians and powered two-wheeler users in urban traffic. These interaction problems lead to a higher risk of hitting and injuring a pedestrian for powered two-wheeler drivers than for four-wheeled vehicle drivers. The analysis of the police reports suggests that part of this increased risk comes from filtering maneuvers by powered two-wheelers.Practical applicationsPossible countermeasures deal with the urban street layout. Measures consisting in reducing the width and the number of traffic lanes to a strict minimum and installing medians or pedestrian islands could be an effective way for the prevention of urban accidents between pedestrians and powered two-wheelers.     

An analysis of motorcyclist injury severity under various traffic control measures at three-legged junctions in the UK

The effects various junction control measures have on accident frequencies among vehicles have been investigated by previous studies through the use of statistical modelling techniques but such effects on motorcyclist injury severity, given that a junction-type accident has occurred, have received little attention in literature. This paper attempts to estimate econometric models of motorcyclist injury severity under different control measures at three-legged junctions in the UK, as a function of demographic, vehicle and environmental factors. Separate ordered probit models were estimated for unsignalised and signalised junctions, using the data extracted from the STATS19 accident injury database (1999–2004). Also examined in the models are collision partners’ aggressiveness toward motorcyclists and the impacts various crash configurations have on injury severity. The modelling results uncover several combined factors that were deadly to motorcyclists: for example, injuries tended to be much more severe while motorcyclists involving in approach-turn collisions at signalised junctions than at unsignalised junctions. This study ultimately offers insights into potential countermeasures that could be undertaken to help lessen motorcyclist injury severity at three-legged junctions in the UK.     

Safety evaluation of joint and conventional lane merge configurations for freeway work zones

Inefficient operation of traffic in work zone areas not only leads to an increase in travel time delays, queue length, and fuel consumption but also increases the number of forced merges and roadway accidents. This study evaluated the safety performance of work zones with a conventional lane merge (CLM) configuration in Louisiana. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the crash rates for accidents involving fatalities, injuries, and property damage only (PDO) in each of the following 4 areas: (1) advance warning area, (2) transition area, (3) work area, and (4) termination area. The analysis showed that the advance warning area had higher fatality, injury, and PDO crash rates when compared to the transition area, work area, and termination area. This finding confirmed the need to make improvements in the advance warning area where merging maneuvers take place. Therefore, a new lane merge configuration, called joint lane merge (JLM), was proposed and its safety performance was examined and compared to the conventional lane merge configuration using a microscopic simulation model (VISSIM), which was calibrated with real-world data from an existing work zone on I-55 and used to simulate a total of 25 different scenarios with different levels of demand and traffic composition. Safety performance was evaluated using 2 surrogate measures: uncomfortable decelerations and speed variance. Statistical analysis was conducted to determine whether the differences in safety performance between both configurations were significant. The safety analysis indicated that JLM outperformed CLM in most cases with low to moderate flow rates and that the percentage of trucks did not have a significant impact on the safety performance of either configuration. Though the safety analysis did not clearly indicate which lane merge configuration is safer for the overall work zone area, it was able to identify the possibly associated safety changes within the work zone area under different traffic conditions.     

Risky driving and the perception of motorcycle accident causes among chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong

Objective: The primary purposes of this study were to explore the relationship between risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles and perceived causes of motorcycle accidents, as well as their contribution to active involvement in traffic accidents among Chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong. Active involvement means the riders was likely at fault for the crash. Methods: A total of 774 motorcyclists were recruited, of whom 292 had been involved in active motorcycle accident in the previous 3?years. All were asked to fill in a questionnaire, which was developed to assess their risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle and perception of motorcycle accident causes. Results: The results of the study revealed 3 dimensions of accident causes, namely, driving-related, environment-related, and belief-related causes. These motorcycle accident causes were correlated with risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle. A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.036, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.020-1.052), perception of driving-related cause (adjusted OR: 0.941, 95% CI: 0.916-0.967), and belief-related cause (adjusted OR: 1.134, 95% CI: 1.088-1.182) were significant factors contributing to involvement in active traffic accidents by motorcycle riders after controlling for concurrent demographic variables. Conclusions: The study highlights that perceived causes of motorcycle accidents are multidimensional, including those areas related to driving, the environment, and beliefs. It substantiates previous studies that a higher degree of driving-related risk perception is related to a lower degree of risk-taking acts while driving. Further research is needed to understand why belief-related causes, sometimes called superstitions, lead riders to believe that it is beyond their ability to affect accident causation and prevention.     

Investigation of speed and trajectory of motorcycle riders at curved road sections of two-lane rural roads under diverse lighting conditions

Introduction: Vehicular accidents at horizontal curves are over-represented compared to accidents that occur at tangent sections. Investigations have been conducted aimed at identifying the major causes that result in higher accident risk, both in terms of severity and rate, at curved road sections. Excessive or abrupt changes in speeding and improper vertical position are cited as major factors of lane departure, whereas other factors (either human or environmental) have also been documented. However, most research involves 4-wheel vehicles rather than other modes of transport that behave differently. More specifically, while motorcyclist fatalities occur more frequently than passenger vehicles, when accounting for vehicle distance traveled only a limited number of research studies address their behavior at curved road sections. Method: This paper presents the findings of field operational tests carried out by motorcyclists along two-lane rural roads with a wide range of horizontal curves using an instrumented motorcycle. Key objectives of the research included the conditions under which the motorcyclists differentiate their trajectory in regards to the direction of the horizontal curves, the correlation between the trajectory and the geometry of the road, and the impact of the lighting conditions on riders’ behavior. Results: The research showed that motorcyclists tend to ride closer to the centerline of the road, neglect the hazards associated with dim lighting conditions, and maintain constant speed in the left hand and the right-hand horizontal curves.     

Crash histories,safety perceptions,and attitudes among Virginia bicyclists

IntroductionCycling injury and fatality rates are on the rise, yet there exists no comprehensive database for bicycle crash injury data.MethodWidely used for safety analysis, police crash report datasets are automobile-oriented and widely known to under-report bicycle crashes. This research is one attempt to address gaps in bicycle data in sources like police crash reports. A survey was developed and deployed to enhance the quality and quantity of available bicycle safety data in Virginia. The survey captures bicyclist attitudes and perceptions of safety as well as bicycle crash histories of respondents.ResultsThe results of this survey most notably show very high levels of under-reporting of bicycle crashes, with only 12% of the crashes recorded in this survey reported to police. Additionally, the results of this work show that lack of knowledge concerning bicycle laws is associated with lower levels of cycling confidence. Count model results predict that bicyclists who stop completely at traffic signals are 40% less likely to be involved in crashes compared to counterparts who sometimes stop at signals. In this dataset, suburban and urban roads with designated bike lanes had more favorable injury severity profiles, with lower percentages of severe and minor injury crashes compared to similar roads with a shared bike/automobile lane or no designated bike infrastructure.     

The effects of a traffic guidance scheme for auto-toll lanes on traffic safety at toll plazas

The Transport Department of the Hong Kong SAR government conducted a trial traffic guidance scheme at the plaza of a busy road tunnel. The scheme involves the placing of reflective road markings on the approach lanes to the toll plaza and the erection of a gantry sign that clearly distinguishes the auto-toll lane. The main purpose of the scheme is to improve traffic flow and traffic safety at the toll plaza. If the scheme is successful, then it will be applied to all other toll plazas in Hong Kong. We conducted an observational before-and-after study to assess the effects of the scheme. We found that the overall lane-changing rate decreased significantly by 23% (0.1 lane crossings per vehicle) at a significance level of 0.05, the pooled conflict count decreased sharply by 44% at a significance level of 0.10, and the crash count also decreased sharply by 38%. The mean travel time for non-auto-toll traffic increased significantly by 30% (8 s), whereas that of auto-toll Sunday traffic decreased by 18% (2 s). Both changes are statistically significant at a level of 0.05. The results indicate that the trial scheme provided good guidance to drivers. Traffic safety was improved, and the travel time of auto-toll traffic improved in certain periods, although at the expense of non-auto-toll traffic.