PLS-based EWMA fault detection strategy for process monitoring

Fault detection (FD) and diagnosis in industrial processes is essential to ensure process safety and maintain product quality. Partial least squares (PLS) has been used successfully in process monitoring because it can effectively deal with highly correlated process variables. However, the conventional PLS-based detection metrics, such as the Hotelling's T² and the Q statistics are ill suited to detect small faults because they only use information from the most recent observations. Other univariate statistical monitoring methods, such as the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control scheme, has shown better abilities to detect small faults. However, EWMA can only be used to monitor single variables. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to combine the advantages of the univariate EWMA and PLS methods to enhance their performances and widen their applicability in practice. The performance of the proposed PLS-based EWMA FD method was compared with that of the conventional PLS FD method through two simulated examples, one using synthetic data and the other using simulated distillation column data. The simulation results clearly show the effectiveness of the proposed method over the conventional PLS, especially in the presence of faults with small magnitudes.     

Kullback-Leibler distance-based enhanced detection of incipient anomalies

Accurate and effective anomaly detection and diagnosis of modern engineering systems by monitoring processes ensure reliability and safety of a product while maintaining desired quality. In this paper, an innovative method based on Kullback-Leibler divergence for detecting incipient anomalies in highly correlated multivariate data is presented. We use a partial least square (PLS) method as a modeling framework and a symmetrized Kullback-Leibler distance (KLD) as an anomaly indicator, where it is used to quantify the dissimilarity between current PLS-based residual and reference probability distributions obtained using fault-free data. Furthermore, this paper reports the development of two monitoring charts based on the KLD. The first approach is a KLD-Shewhart chart, where the Shewhart monitoring chart with a three sigma rule is used to monitor the KLD of the response variables residuals from the PLS model. The second approach integrates the KLD statistic into the exponentially weighted moving average monitoring chart. The performance of the PLS-based KLD anomaly-detection methods is illustrated and compared to that of conventional PLS-based anomaly detection methods. Using synthetic data and simulated distillation column data, we demonstrate the greater sensitivity and effectiveness of the developed method over the conventional PLS-based methods, especially when data are highly correlated and small anomalies are of interest. Results indicate that the proposed chart is a very promising KLD-based method because KLD-based charts are, in practice, designed to detect small shifts in process parameters.     

Performance-based earthquake evaluation of a full-scale petrochemical piping system

Assessment of seismic vulnerability of industrial petrochemical and oil & gas piping systems can be performed, beyond analytical tools, through experimental testing as well. Along this line, this paper describes an experimental test campaign carried out on a full-scale piping system in order to assess its seismic behaviour. In particular, a typical industrial piping system, containing several critical components, such as elbows, a bolted flange joint and a Tee joint, was tested under different levels of realistic earthquake loading. They corresponded to serviceability and ultimate limit states for support structures as suggested by modern performance-based earthquake engineering standards. The so called hybrid simulation techniques namely, pseudo-dynamic and real time testing with dynamic substructuring, were adopted to perform seismic tests. Experimental results displayed a favourable performance of the piping system and its components; they remained below their yielding, allowable stress and allowable strain limits without any leakage even at the Near Collapse Limit State condition for the support structure. Moreover, the favourable comparison between experimental and numerical results, proved the validity of the proposed hybrid techniques alternative to shaking table tests.     

人的可靠性分析研究

人的可靠性研究是系统可靠性研究的一项重要内容。现在越来越多的企业走向大型化、连续化、自动化道路,企业员工接触各种大型设备的机会越来越多,一旦员工出现人为误操作,便可能发生重大事故,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失,也很可能造成环境污染。因此,提高人的可靠性分析即可减少人员的误操作。本文主要对人的可靠性分析、人的可靠性评估以及人的可靠性管理三大方面进行探讨。首先,概述了人的可靠性研究发展经历的两个阶段和可靠性数据不足之处。其次,对人的可靠性研究方法进行汇总,并且对第一代和第二代的HRA进行描述。同时,提出了人的可靠性评估步骤与管理建议。最后,根据所作的工作,提出一些研究的难点和前景,以便使其更好地服务于工业化生产。     

Thermal evaluation of junction and connection boxes in explosion protection

To reliably avoid potential ignition sources and thus ignition of the potentially explosive atmosphere in junction and connection boxes of type of protection Increased Safety ‘e', the self-heating shall not exceed a specified level depending on the temperature class. For the conformity assessment of such products, complex thermal tests are necessary due to the great variety of mounting types and arrangements of terminal blocks in the enclosure, depending on the enclosure size. These tests are very time-consuming for the manufacturer of junction and connection boxes or for the testing laboratory and are therefore associated with considerable costs. To reduce this effort and to ensure a uniform assessment in the conformity evaluation by a certification body, it is therefore essential to create fitting charts depending on the enclosure size.This work introduces a calculation tool by means of systematic investigations on different enclosure sizes and with different assemblies, which enables the calculation of fitting charts with justifiable effort. For this purpose, the maximum temperature in the enclosure was determined as a function of the current and the assembly at 20 ± 5 °C ambient temperature. From this, electrical and enclosure-specific constants such as the maximum permissible current per conductor and a conductor specific factor were determined and combined with an exponential dependence of the power dissipation. It is shown that this relationship is valid for an overtemperature of 40 K for compliance with temperature class T6 up to an ambient temperature of +40 °C. Finally, to verify the reliability of the calculation tool, the results are compared with the enclosure-specific rated value of the maximum power dissipation according to IEC 60079-7, 5.7.     

Reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventers with condition-based maintenance using stochastic Petri nets

Blowout Preventer (BOP) has maintained its function as a safety barrier and the last line of defence against oil and gas spills since its development in the early 1900s. However, as drilling and exploration activities move further offshore, challenges pertaining to reliable operation of the subsea BOP systems continue to be a source of concern for stakeholders in the industry. In spite of recent advancements in reliability analysis of safety instrumented systems (SISs), the research on reliability assessment of BOP is still lacking in some regards. There are gaps in the literature with respect to the incorporation of preventive maintenance (PM) strategies as well as dynamic operating conditions into BOP reliability analysis. To address these gaps, this paper develops an advanced analysis method using stochastic Petri nets (SPN) to estimate the reliability of subsea BOP systems subject to condition-based maintenance (CBM) with different failure modes. The BOP system is divided into five subsystems which are connected in series with each other and categorised into degrading and binary units. The performance of the BOP system in terms of availability, reliability and mean-time-between failures (MTBF) is obtained and analysed. A sensitivity analysis is also performed to evaluate the effect of fault coverage factor and redundancy design on system performance. The results show that both the fault coverage factor and redundancy have significant impact on the BOP's reliability, availability and MTBF.     

Certification of Highly Complex Safety-Related Systems

The BIA has now 15 years of experience with the certification of complex electronic systems for safety-related applications in the machinery sector. Using the example of machining centres, this presentation will show the systematic procedure for verifying and validating control systems using Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and microcomputers for safety functions.

One section will describe the control structure of machining centres with control systems using “ integrated safety.” A diverse redundant architecture combined with crossmonitoring and forced dynamisation is explained. In the main section the steps of the systematic certification procedure are explained showing some results of the certification of drilling machines. Specification reviews, design reviews with test case specification, statistical analysis, and walk-throughs are the analytical measures in the testing process. Systematic tests based on the test case specification, Electro Magnetic Interference (EMI) and environmental testing, and site acceptance tests on the machines are the testing measures for validation.

A complex software driven system is always undergoing modification. Most of the changes are not safety-relevant but this has to be proven. A systematic procedure for certifying software modifications is presented in the last section of the paper.     

A new approach to quantitative assessment of reliability of passive systems

The objective of this paper is to show how probabilistic reliability can be assessed for complex systems in the absence of statistical data on their operating experience, based on performance evaluation of the dominant underlying physical processes. The approach is to distinguish between functional and performance probabilities when dealing with the quantification of the overall probability of a system to perform a given function in a given period of time (reliability). In the case of systems where sufficient statistical operating experience data are available, one can focus the quantitative evaluation entirely on the assessment of the functional probability for a given active item (e.g. a pump) by assuming that the specification, layout, construction and installation is such that the item is providing the assigned performance, e.g. in the form of generating the required flow rate. This is how traditional probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) focus the reliability analysis for the various safety features on the calculation of values for the availability per demand. In contrast, for various systems relevant in advanced technical applications, such as passive safety features in innovative reactor designs, it is essential to evaluate both functional and performance probabilities explicitly and combine the two probabilities later on. This is of course due to the strong reliance of passive safety systems on inherent physical principles. In practice, this means that, for example, in case of a passive cooling system based on natural circulation of a given medium, one has to evaluate and to assess the probability to have a medium condition and a flow rate such that a cladding temperature, represented by a probability distribution, can be hold at a required level. A practical example of this method is given for the case of the reliability assessment of a residual passive heat removal system. General conclusions are drawn regarding reliability estimation of complex, interconnected systems in the absence of statistical performance data, such as for infrastructures.     

火灾探测报警系统及其可靠性研究

随着经济的发展和城市化进程的加速,火灾探测报警系统作为早期发现火灾的重要设备,在火灾防控中发挥着越来越重要的作用,火灾探测报警系统及其可靠性也成为当前研究热点。本文介绍了火灾探测报警系统及其可靠性的研究现状,分析了火灾探测报警系统及其可靠性研究存在的问题,针对存在的问题,指出了火灾探测报警系统朝着智能化、标准化、网络化的发展方向,以及火灾探测报警系统可靠性研究的发展趋势,建立火灾探测报警系统数据库,并找出适用于火灾探测报警系统可靠性分析方法。     

Testing of the Micromist device: an active soft barrier for explosion control

Barrier technology offers a way forward to control consequences of potential gas explosions. The potential of this technology was discussed in a previous paper. Here we describe the test to explore the potential application of the Micromist device as a soft suppressive barrier. The Micromist device is based on a proprietary hot-water technology, which allows the production and distribution of a very fine mist suitable for damping down the propagating flame. Towards the end of 1999, BP and the UK Health and Safety Executive jointly funded a test programme to investigate the performance of the Micromist device using the medium-scale test rig at the Christian Michelsen Research. Results of this test are described, and ways forward to be identified. A total of 20 tests were carried out and they showed the Micromist device to be able to arrest a developing gas explosion. In cases where the water droplet loading was not sufficient to arrest the flame, the severity of the gas explosions was much reduced. These tests represent an initial assessment of the technology but there are other elements of the system that still need to be addressed, for example, control and detection strategy. These tests specifically exclude the impact of detection and control on the performance of the Micromist device.     

油田班组安全文化建设评价指标体系研究

为推动油田班组安全文化建设的持续改进,需要建立科学合理的评价体系,来评价油田的班组安全文化建设现状。针对油田班组安全文化建设的评价指标体系研究有待进一步深化并与现场实际相结合、验证。本文分析了油田班组安全文化建设的结构层次关系,以SMART准则为依据,结合行业标准,采用对初选指标逐阶分层的方法逐步重构出针对油田班组安全文化建设的评价指标体系,并进一步进行了效度、信度、相关性检验,验证其指标体系的有效性。最后将评价指标体系应用于华北油田第一采油厂的班组安全文化建设评价实践,有效区分出不同班组的安全文化水平,证明了该指标体系的有效性和科学性。     

太原地区煤矸石作为建筑回填材料的试验研究

为了利用煤矸石作为建筑回填材料,控制其压实质量,以室内土工试验的方法,对太原地区某矿煤矸石进行了物理、力学等指标的试验研究。结果证明,所用煤矸石性能良好,性质较稳定,适合作为回填材料。并回归出该煤矸石的应力-应变关系式,得出了物理力学参数。     

A prediction model for the flash point of binary liquid mixtures

A prediction model based on the partial least squares of the multivariate statistical analysis methods was developed for the flash point (FP) of binary liquid mixtures. Estimation of the FP of flammable substances is important for safety measures in industrial processes. Since experimental FP data of liquid mixtures are scarce in the literature, there have been many researches to estimate the FP of liquid mixtures using physicochemical laws. In this study, the partial least squares (PLS) method using experimental data was used as a prediction model of the FP of binary liquid mixtures. The FPs predicted from the PLS method were also compared to results from the existing calculating methods using physicochemical laws such as Raoult's law and the Van Laar equation.     

基于二阶矩法的钢筋混凝土连续梁可靠度分析

根据结构可靠性理论,运用应力-强度干涉模型,考虑随机参数服从正态分布情况下的影响,构建连续梁在强度失效模式下的可靠性模型,应用二阶矩法通过数值分析计算结构的可靠指标,得出了结构的可靠度。为使所建立的模型符合钢筋混凝土结构的具体受力特点,荷载效应计算中考虑了钢筋混凝土结构的内力重分布,承载能力计算中参考了《混凝土结构设计规范》(GB50010-2002)给出的近似计算公式,得到了多维非线性的极限状态方程。通过实例对模型和可靠度方法进行了验证,计算分析表明,本文所建立的可靠性模型揭示了钢筋混凝土连续梁在各种随机因素作用下强度失效的规律,为钢筋混凝土连续梁的可靠性分析提供了依据。此外,本文提供的构件可靠度计算思路也可为其他各类钢筋混凝土构件的可靠度分析提供参考。     

多点法测定可燃物质自燃特性的可靠性研究

多点法是一种新提出的自热反应动力学分析方法。采用实验研究和理论分析相结合的方式对多点法的操作过程以及实验结果的可靠性展开研究。通过构建一维导热系统、采用不同形式的热电偶布设方式,对烟叶粉末的自燃临界环境温度、活化能以及反应热与指前因子的乘积等参数进行了测定。研究表明:所构建的一维系统能较好地模拟一维导热;热电偶的分布方式对测量结果有较大影响,对称分布状况下,温度结果与经典的F-K对称模型一致;多点法相比于传统方法省时省力,测定结果有较好的线性拟合相关度,求解的动力学参数较为可靠。     

可靠性理论在公共安全领域的应用研究

对公共安全体系从系统可靠性的视角,综合运用可靠性方面的知识,构建公共安全系统混联模型;进而将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,根据系统安全目标的要求,确定混联系统的第一层次各单元事件的可靠性目标值,对构成各单元的各个下属单元采取最小工作量可靠度分配方法,从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。通过建筑物火灾引起人员伤亡事故实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,可靠性理论可以成功地应用到公共安全领域;使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化,实现了公共安全保障效能,减小灾害损失。     

How safe must a potential crewed launcher be demonstrated to be before it is crewed?

The US is entering into a new era in space. The Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) (Bush, 2004) announced by the US President has been fleshed out during the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) (ESAS Team Final Report, 2005) and work has been underway since then to develop a generation of launch vehicles to implement the preferred 1.5 launch architecture identified in the study. The 0.5 part of the launch set indicates the smaller Crew Launch Vehicle in the new set designated Ares I by NASA. The Ares I was selected by the team because analysis had shown that its complement of a solid first stage, with a liquid H₂/O₂ cryogenic second stage offered the best potential balance among cost, risk and performance. In particular the risk that this conceptual design would impose on the crew once matured was forecasted to be an order of magnitude better than the current matured crewed launcher set, the Soyuz and the Space Shuttle (Isakowitz, 2004). This forecast relied heavily on the experience of the heritage systems upon which the concept was based, specifically the heritage of the Shuttle solid rocket boosters and the experience with cryogenic upper stage engines from the Apollo and Shuttle era. Even with this strong heritage in play, it was recognized by the ESAS Risk Analysts that it would be necessary to mature the design with a set of test flights prior to placing the crew at risk. However the question was and is: “How many test flights are necessary before a crewed flight should be attempted?”This is the question that this paper addresses. That is, it is clear that the number of test flights is related to the desired safety level and that this, in turn, is related to what safety goal should be assigned to enable the crewed flight. Further, demonstration of goal achievement is again in turn related to how much of the heritage base can be captured in the new design. In the extreme, for a completely “new” design, the demonstration would be bounded by the requirements of the identical, repeatable experiments of classical probability theory (Mises, 1957). Even if the tens, or even hundreds of launches that this would require would be financially possible, tests of developmental systems are seldom, if ever, identical and repeatable because the design is modified to address the failure events observed. On the other hand, if the design was completely identical to the heritage then the heritage demonstrated reliability could be subsumed compared to the goal without further testing. This paper addresses the role of heritage in a developmental environment in the establishment of a minimum goal for the initiation of crewed missions and the testing required for its demonstration.     

注浆减沉机理的新认识和注浆系统可靠度分析

笔者通过对影响注浆减沉技术效果的分析 ,建立了由浆体单元、钻孔单元、围岩体单元和封孔单元组成子系统的注浆减沉系统 ,以及系统对应的可靠度分析模型 ;运用可靠度理论 ,解析并得出了注浆减沉系统可靠度计算公式 ;依据建立的注浆减沉系统模型 ,借助数理统计和随机过程等工具 ,可以做到比较准确地预测注浆减沉的效果 ,优化注浆参数和改善注浆工艺 ,为减少地下工程开挖损害 ,保护环境和施工安全提供了新的途径。     

变滑面顺层滑坡相似模拟试验装置研制与应用

为了揭示地下采矿诱发顺层岩质斜坡的变形失稳机制,自主研制变滑面顺层滑坡相似模拟试验装置,该试验装置用可变滑面间接模拟地下开采对斜坡的影响,可节省配制和装填基岩、矿层等滑动面以下岩层的相似材料用量,缩短模型堆建时间,减少工作量,能模拟不同滑动面形态、变形速度、挠曲程度、抗剪强度等条件下顺层斜坡的变形失稳。利用该试验装置,研究重复逆坡开采影响下顺层岩质斜坡的变形破裂响应特征,试验结果与现场实际斜坡的变形破坏滑坡过程相符,表明试验装置具有较好的可靠性。     

反硝化细菌强化潜流湿地的污水处理厂尾水脱氮试验

为了揭示反硝化菌强化潜流湿地的污水处理厂尾水脱氮效果及机理,以砾石、红砖碎块、钢渣、陶粒、土壤为湿地填料,茭白、梭鱼草、黑麦草、红叶石楠为湿地植物,构建了两套湿地系统,其中一套投加菌剂,另一套作为对照组,使用双总体t检验方法分析了投加反硝化细菌B8(Pseudomonas putida)菌液于水平潜流湿地系统的操作与生物强化湿地脱氮程度之间的相互关系。结果表明,将反硝化菌(B8)菌液连续14 d投加于水平潜流湿地后,在强化潜流湿地运行的58 d内,其NH_4~+-N、NO_2~--N和TN平均去除率分别为65.3%、94.2%和71.5%;而未投菌的潜流湿地的NH_4~+-N、NO_2~--N和TN平均去除率分别为28.2%、74.7%和43.1%,加入菌剂使潜流湿地氮素去除能力大幅提高。双总体t检验方法分析表明,在停止投菌运行的41 d内,接种B8细菌的湿地系统的总氮去除率显著高于未投菌的湿地系统(p0.05);但在停止投菌运行的58 d内,投菌湿地和未投菌湿地脱氮效果的差异不显著(p0.05),因此确定B8强化水平潜流湿地系统的投菌周期为58 d。