压力脉冲波法复杂天然气管道堵塞检测实验研究*

为了解决复杂天然气管道堵塞定位难题,快速定位出堵塞位置,提出利用压力脉冲波法检测复杂管道堵塞。改造搭建长18.1 m、包含17个三通结构的压力波堵塞检测实验台,进行不同堵塞率以及气液混输管道的堵塞定位实验。结果表明:管道三通会引起频率范围为150~200 Hz的高频反射波,利用FFT谐波变换方法可以有效地对原始信号进行滤波分析,更利于对堵塞定位分析。在堵塞率100%时,定位误差为1.07%;在堵塞率50%时,定位误差最大,达到1.93%;对于含液率8%的气液混输管道,100%堵塞时,定位误差为0.48%。研究结果有效地证实了压力脉冲法检测复杂输运管道堵塞的可行性,可为该方法的现场应用提供指导和数据支撑。     

压力脉冲波法天然气管道堵塞检测研究*

为快速检测出天然气管道堵塞位置、长度及堵塞程度,解决天然气输运管道中堵塞定位难题,探讨压力脉冲波法管道堵塞检测的可行性与效果。搭建长220 m的压力脉冲波堵塞检测实验系统,进行多组连续性长堵塞检测实验和水堵检测实验。结果表明:连续性长堵塞检测实验中堵塞前沿反射信号为负压波,堵塞后沿信号为正压波,且波形清晰可辩,其多组实验的堵塞位置、堵塞长度及堵塞率的平均检测误差分别为0.23%,0.75%和2.67%;水堵反射信号清晰可辨但波形复杂,其多组实验的堵塞位置、堵塞长度及堵塞率的平均检测误差分别为0.78%,9.61%和43.28%。实验结果有效地证实了压力脉冲法的可靠性与实用性,并为压力脉冲波法堵塞检测现场应用提供指导。     

基于模糊Bow-tie模型的深水海底管道定量风险评价研究

为有效评价深水海底管道风险,提出一种新的模糊Bow-tie模型定量风险评价方法。综合运用Bow-tie图、模糊集以及德尔菲法,定量分析油气泄漏概率。进一步利用层次分析法(AHP)研究油气泄漏后果的严重程度,给出泄漏后果因素的权重系数选择方案。同时,结合风险矩阵,实现对高风险深水海底管道的定量风险评价。将上述方法用到具体海底管道工程中,得出目标海底管道泄漏概率属于A级,泄漏后果属于Ⅲ级,泄漏风险为高风险,这一结果与实际情况较为符合。     

Integrated leakage detection and localization model for gas pipelines based on the acoustic wave method

With the development of natural gas transportation systems, major accidents can result from internal gas leaks in pipelines that transport high-pressure gases. Leaks in pipelines that carry natural gas result in enormous financial loss to the industry and affect public health. Hence, leak detection and localization is a major concern for researchers studying pipeline systems. To ensure the safety and improve the efficiency of pipeline emergency repair, a high-pressure and long-distance circular pipe leakage simulation platform is designed and established by similarity analysis with a field transmission pipeline, and an integrated leakage detection and localization model for gas pipelines is proposed. Given that the spread velocity of acoustic waves in pipelines is related to the properties of the medium, such as pressure, density, specific heat, and so on, this paper proposes a modified acoustic velocity and location formula. An improved wavelet double-threshold de-noising optimization method is also proposed to address the original acoustic wave signal collected by the test platform. Finally, the least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) method is applied to determine the leakage degree and operation condition. Experimental results show that the integrated model can enhance the accuracy and precision of pipeline leakage detection and localization.     

New tools predict monoethylene glycol injection rate for natural gas hydrate inhibition

In the oil and gas production operations, hydrates deposition leads to serious problems including over pressuring, irreparable damages to production equipment, pipeline blockage, and finally resulting in production facilities shut down and even human life and the environment dangers. Hence, it is of great importance to forecast the hydrate formation conditions in order to overcome problems associated with deposition of hydrate. In this article, an effective, mathematical and predictive strategy, known as the least squares support vector machine, is employed to determine the hydrate forming conditions of sweet natural gases as well as the monoethylene glycol (MEG) flow-rate and desired depression of the gas hydrate formation temperature (DHFT). The outcome of this study reveals that the developed technique offers high predictive potential in precise estimation of this important characteristic in the gas industry. Beside the accuracy and reliability, the proposed model includes lower number of coefficients in contrast with conventional correlations/methods, implying an interesting feature to be added to the modeling simulation software packages in gas engineering.     

Analysis of crater formation in buried NG pipelines: A survey based on past accidents and evaluation of domino effect

The formation of a crater by the abrupt and catastrophic rupture of a high-pressure pipeline can be highly relevant, especially when the crater uncovers other pipelines, which could undergo a domino effect with a significant increase of the consequences on people or on the environment. However, this scenario has been only partially studied in the literature. To assess the influence of the pipeline parameters on the dimensions of the resulting crater, a statistical analysis of accidental ruptures of buried natural gas pipelines that have involved the formation of a crater was carried out. Mathematical expressions are proposed to describe the proportionality relationships found, which can be very useful to support adequate separation distances in the design and construction of parallel corridors of pipelines after appropriate escalating effects are considered. Finally, detailed event trees were developed to calculate the probability of occurrence of the final outcomes, as well as the identified domino sequences, based on a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the data. The study of these accident scenarios, based on actual cases, represents a useful and needed advance in risk analysis of natural gas transportation through pipelines.     

基于毕达哥拉斯模糊贝叶斯网络的海底管道泄漏风险分析*

为分析海底管道运行中存在的泄漏风险,提出1种基于毕达哥拉斯模糊数与贝叶斯网络的风险评估模型。首先,通过毕达哥拉斯模糊数转换专家定性评价,拓展专家意见模糊范围;然后,结合主客观组合赋权法,利用毕达哥拉斯梯形爱因斯坦混合几何算子（PTFEHG）实现专家意见的聚合;最后,通过贝叶斯网络的推理与敏感性分析,计算海底管道泄漏风险的失效概率,并辨识关键风险因素。研究结果表明:该方法可以结合专家意见对海底管道泄漏风险进行定量分析,并识别导致泄漏事故的关键风险因素,对海底管道安全管理具有指导意义。     

Quantification of impact of line markers on risk on transmission pipelines with natural gas

The paper presents a model for the assessment of the influence of line markers on risk on transmission pipelines with natural gas. The impact of line markers on risk is determined as a function of the line marker recognisability, which in turn depends on the ability to discern a line marker from a distance. The model is based on physical properties of line markers, especially on their colour, measures and the colour of the environment. These properties served to quantitatively assess the discernability of two most frequently encountered types of line markers. Calculated distances at which a particular line marker is discernible were compared to the average distances between two line markers. Risk reduction factors were derived from the comparison between the calculated results and the data from the appropriate hazardous event database. Results of the model indicated significant dependence of the risk reduction factor due to line markers on the distance between two line markers and the weather conditions. The model shows its flexibility through its distinct dependence on local conditions along the pipeline route. It can serve as a supplement to the existing models for quantitative risk assessment on pipelines used in natural gas transportation.     

An integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network

Natural gas industry is developing rapidly, and its accidents are threatening the urban safety. Risk management through quantitative assessment has become an important way to improve the safety performance of the natural gas supply system. In this paper, an integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network is proposed. This method is composed of the probability assessment of accidents, the analysis of consequences and the evaluation of risk. It is noteworthy that the consequences analyzed here include those of the outside and inside gas pipelines. The analysis of consequences of the outside pipelines focuses on the individual risk and societal risk caused by different accidents, while those of the inside pipelines concerns about the risk of the economic loss because of the pressure re-distribution. Risk of a sample urban gas pipeline network is analyzed to demonstrate the presented method. The results show that this presented integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network can be used in practical application.     

天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价技术研究

为研究天然气长输管道失效个人生命风险,提出一种以人员伤亡概率为指标的天然气管道失效后果风险评价方法。基于天然气管道的失效概率和失效致死长度参数,建立天然气长输管道生命风险评价模型。用该模型,对国内某城市住宅小区内带腐蚀缺陷的天然气管线进行定量风险分析。借鉴英国天然气输送公司数据,确定天然气管线个人生命风险值。案例证明,用所建立的天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价模型能够有效地分析带缺陷天然气管道失效后果,实现天然气管道的个人安全生命风险全定量评价。     

海底管道受抛锚撞击的数值模拟

海底管道常会因受到抛锚等坠物撞击而发生管道破损、油气泄漏等事故,通常的保护措施是将海底管道埋入海床下一定安全的深度。锚在贯入海床的过程中,与海床相互作用会耗散掉锚的大部分能量,从而使锚对管道的撞击能量减小,继而避免或降低锚对管道的撞击损害。运用非线性有限元软件ANSYS/LS-DYNA建立锚、海床、管道的有限元模型以还原锚贯入海床的过程,选取不同锚重、不同撞击速度及不同海底底质得到锚在贯入海床的过程中与海床的能量变换情况,即锚的速度及位移变化、海底管道的应力应变情况。模拟结果表明,锚的贯穿量随锚重和触底速度增加而增大,随土壤内摩擦角和土体黏聚力增加而减小。     

老龄海底油气管道弃置决策研究

针对我国老龄海底油气管道在弃置决策上缺少理论依据的问题,建立老龄海底油气管道弃置决策模型的结构流程,基于多属性效用理论,从4个维度进行分析,选取影响老龄海底管道安全寿命的工程因素、结构因素、风险因素和影响决策的成本因素,构建属性树;运用模糊理论建立模糊互补判断矩阵,综合专家意见计算各属性权重,并进行影响因素敏感性分析;确定老龄海底管道弃置决策评分准则,对属性树各因素取值进行量化,引入成本效益率量化成本因素;采用逻辑运算计算综合得分,根据综合得分进行弃置决策。工程实例应用表明:相比于传统决策方法仅凭设计寿命作为弃置依据,老龄海底管道弃置决策模型不仅避免了单一性,还能反应服役环境对管道的影响,有利于提高管道服役过程的经济性和安全性。     

Dynamic probability assessment of urban natural gas pipeline accidents considering integrated external activities

Urban gas pipelines usually have high structural vulnerability due to long service time. The locations across urban areas with high population density make the gas pipelines easily exposed to external activities. Recently, urban pipelines may also have been the target of terrorist attacks. Nevertheless, the intentional damage, i.e. terrorist attack, was seldom considered in previous risk analysis of urban gas pipelines. This work presents a dynamic risk analysis of external activities to urban gas pipelines, which integrates unintentional and intentional damage to pipelines in a unified framework. A Bayesian network mapping from the Bow-tie model is used to represent the evolution process of pipeline accidents initiating from intentional and unintentional hazards. The probabilities of basic events and safety barriers are estimated by adopting the Fuzzy set theory and hierarchical Bayesian analysis (HBA). The developed model enables assessment of the dynamic probabilities of consequences and identifies the most credible contributing factors to the risk, given observed evidence. It also captures both data and model uncertainties. Eventually, an industrial case is presented to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed methodology. It is observed that the proposed methodology helps to more accurately conduct risk assessment and management of urban natural gas pipelines.     

Towards more detailed determination of third party impact on risk on natural gas pipelines: Influence of population density

The paper presents a refined way to quantify the effects of third party interference on risk that is posed on people by transmission pipelines for natural gas. The main focus is set on the influence of population density on risk. Using the interdisciplinary approach, the presented study combines the knowledge from relevant risk assessment recommendations, physical consequences of hazardous events, existing history databases of hazardous event frequencies and urban planning. A quantitative boundary between two most populated types of area was established. A flexible risk coefficient was determined for a suburban type of populated area that is dependent on average population density. Consequently, a new approach for determination of a hazard distance from the pipeline and area boundaries for calculation of average population density was presented. This differs from the established methods described in some guidelines, but is based on results of applied quantitative risk assessment. The final result is more accurate determination of risk levels in suburban areas. Described methods may serve as a supplement to the existing models for quantitative risk assessment on pipelines used in natural gas transportation and may be used by pipeline operators as well as policy- and decision makers.     

Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

人工煤气管道萘颗粒沉积规律研究

针对萘在人工煤气管道中沉积会造成管道堵塞，影响管道的安全运行的这一问题，以昆明人工煤气管道为例，运用计算流体动力学软件Fluent，选用离散相模型和雷诺应力模型，对水平直管、水平弯管和三通管进行萘颗粒沉积的数值模拟，对于不同的管径、弯曲比、管径比，分别分析萘颗粒直径、入口速度、温度及压力对萘颗粒沉积的影响。研究结果表明:水平直管、水平弯管、三通管中的萘颗粒沉积率与颗粒粒径成正相关关系，而与气流入口速度、压力成负相关关系；萘颗粒在人工煤气管道中的沉积率主要受颗粒直径、气流入口速度的影响；萘颗粒的沉积率随着水平直管的管径增大而增大，随着水平弯管的弯曲比增大而增大，随着三通管的管径比增大而先增大后减小；可通过适当增大管内煤气输送速度、压力，降低温度来降低萘颗粒在人工煤气管道中的沉积速度，进而减少萘颗粒沉积的发生。     

深水测试地面流程节流油嘴段温压场研究*

为对深水高压气井测试地面流程中的节流油嘴段的温压场及水合物生成情况进行研究,采用数值模拟的方式对整个节流管路进行气体流动特性分析。并利用P-T图回归公式法,得出不同温压场条件下的水合物生成情况,进行水合物生成范围对比。结果表明:针阀出口后端气体速度随着管路入口压力和针阀直径的增大而增大,随管路出口压力的增大而减小,而气体温度随管路入口压力、管路出口压力、针阀直径的变化趋势与之相反。管路入口压力的递增、管路出口压力的递减以及针阀直径的递增,都会导致针阀突变径处的速度场、温压场波动更加剧烈,并使得水合物生成范围扩大。     

Numerical investigation of surface conduit parallel gas pipeline explosive based on the TNT equivalent weight method

With the rapid development of petroleum industry, the transport pipelines of oil and gas are increasingly constructed to minimize land use conflicts. Therefore, the parallel pipelines are unavoidable in order to save land resource, reduce the pipeline construction and maintenance costs. The economy and security of pipeline laying and running is the primary problem considered in pipeline construction, which the parallel spacing plays a decisive role to. The leakage of natural gas is very serious and dangerous due to its flammable and combustible. The explosive of leak gas causes impact failure to parallel pipeline. Specific to the surface conduit parallel gas pipeline, numerical simulation of leak natural gas explosive was carried out based on TNT equivalent weight method. Explosive damage degree of pipeline decreased with the pipeline distance increasing. Consulting with the pipeline ovalization strain design criteria and the combustion effect, the safety parallel natural gas pipeline space maybe at least 4 m to ensure the surface conduit parallel pipeline safely and steadily operation.     

对天然气水合物预防管理保障安全生产的研究

为了保障陆上气田冬季天然气安全生产,防止因天然气水合物导致安全事故,采用鱼骨图法对陆上气田天然气水合物产生的原因进行系统分析。分析显示,导致天然气水合物产生的根本原因,出现在天然气产能建设和日常生产管理各环节,以及单井、输气管道和集气站各生产场所,为防止天然气水合物产生,针对原因采用5W1H法进行管理,从而达到对冬季天然气生产主要安全风险进行有效控制的目标。     

Subsea pipelines incidents prevention: A case study in Brazil

There are more than 4000 subsea pipelines in Brazil. These pipes include umbilicals, drilling risers, flexible risers, rigid risers, hybrid risers, flowlines, and export pipelines. Despite all standards, regulations, guides, and risk management tools designed to avoid events, subsea pipeline incidents still occur, revealing possible failures in companies' risk control. Identifying similarities between different subsea pipeline failure events is crucial to improving the design, risk management practices, and regulation requirements, besides promoting accident prevention. This paper proposes applying the life cycle and management practices combined to analyze subsea pipeline incidents from the RDI (Detailed Incident Report) and investigations reported to ANP (Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels), the Brazilian safety regulatory agency. Furthermore, subsea pipeline incidents data were analyzed: correlated circumstances, consequences, and causes. The results show that most riser and flowlines causal factors are related to equipment failures, and recurrent root causes are design errors and integrity control. Based on the proposed approach, it was possible to identify gaps in most riser and flowlines accident investigations since there are few causal factors, root causes, and the absence of riser and flowlines failure mode and mechanisms. Therefore, the development of accident recommendations can be compromised. Thus, this paper proposes improvements to current Brazilian regulations to clarify the minimal subsea pipeline accident investigation requirements.