贝叶斯网络在CFIT风险评价中的应用

针对事故树分析法(FTA)在风险评价中的局限性,在可控飞行撞地(CFIT)事故树的基础上,建立贝叶斯网络(BN).运用推理运算对贝叶斯网络进行定量分析,通过分析计算数据,寻找主要事故致因,并提出对应的改进措施.再将改进措施引入到贝叶斯网络中,评价相关措施的有效性.结果表明,改进措施后,高度设置错误的后验概率最大,将成为预防CFIT的工作重点.最后指出贝叶斯网络方法是对传统的基于故障树分析的风险评价方法的有益改进.     

可控飞行撞地风险因素分析及系统结构研究

我国运输航空的伊春"8·24"空难是一起典型的可控飞行撞地(CFIT),该类事故严重影响飞行安全,因此研究CFIT风险因素结构模型对该类飞行事故的分析和预防有非常重要的意义。通过分析大量CFIT事故及事故征候,使用SHEL模型识别出18项风险因素,使用德尔菲法确定各因素之间的直接影响关系,通过决策试验和评价试验法分析出机组技术、机组应急能力、机组经验、疲劳状况、驾驶舱资源管理、民航法规及安全管理是最重要的致因因素,并确定了各类风险因素所属类别;采用解释结构模型法构建了风险因素的多级递阶结构模型,从整体上获得了各风险因素的层次结构及关系。     

危化品槽罐车运输事故关键致因及传递路径研究

为有效减少危化品槽罐车运输事故的发生,找出导致事故发生的关键致因及因子间的传递路径,在统计分析2016—2020年发生的1 041起危化品槽罐车运输事故的基础上,结合事故致因理论,从人、机、环、管4个维度,提炼出15个事故致因因子,联合使用决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)和解释结构模型(ISM)分析各因子的关联关系及对事故影响的重要程度,构建事故致因因子多级递阶模型。结果表明：错误操作、罐体及安全附件故障是导致事故的直接关键致因,监督管理不到位、极端天气和教育培训不到位是导致事故的深层关键致因;事故的发生是多层因子共同作用的结果,且以监督管理不到位和极端天气为底层因子,分别衍生出23条和16条事故传递路径,其中,监督管理不到位—教育培训不到位—错误操作是最危险传递路径,在事故预防时应予以重点控制。     

基于贝叶斯网络的尾流事故机理分析

针对事故树分析法的局限性,在尾流事故树的基础上,建立贝叶斯网络(BN)。运用推理运算对BN进行定量分析,得出:空中交通密度太大、空中交通管制(ATC)间隔判断错误和短期冲突告警(STCA)被忽略是事故的关键致因。将针对致因提出的改进措施引入到BN中,评价相关措施的有效性。应用BN进行尾流事故的机理分析,能够以比逻辑门更好的形式表达变量间的不确定性关系,从而更加方便地找到导致事故发生的关键因素。     

小样本条件下地铁运营事故致因推理模型

为克服传统事故致因推理模型不适用于小样本条件下的地铁运营事故致因推理的缺陷,将贝叶斯网络(BN)与Bootstrap抽样法、D-S证据理论相结合,建立地铁运营事故致因推理模型。首先,分析历年地铁运营事故样本,确定事故致因因素及网络节点;其次,基于BN的基本算法和理论,运用Bootstrap抽样法和K2算法进行BN结构学习;然后,使用D-S证据理论修正BN参数,建立适用于小样本条件下的地铁运营事故致因BN模型;最后,进行因果推理、诊断推理和敏感性分析。结果表明：所构建的地铁运营事故致因推理模型可有效进行事故推理预测,节点预测精度均值为0.858;通过因果推理得出最常见的地铁运营事故类型为运营中断,其次是火灾和列车冲突;结合诊断推理发现供电系统故障是导致运营中断的最主要事故致因。     

基于ANP的建筑安全管理绩效评价框架研究

基于政府A部门提供的502起建设工程事故调查报告,综合应用比较分析、数据挖掘、网络层次分析法(ANP)和超级决策(SD)决策软件,建立建筑安全管理绩效评价框架,包括6个一级指标和24个二级指标;通过分析各因素之间的关系,修正各个因素的权重,得出事故致因的传递路径。根据和其他偏定性研究的比较还可以发现,基于数据挖掘的ANP和SD的综合运用,更利于对真实情况进行研究模拟,在应对较大建设工程事故风险时更具有针对性和前瞻性。     

基于ISM的建筑施工高处坠落事故致因分析

高处坠落是建筑工程事故统计中发生频率最高的一类事故,会造成极大的人员伤害和经济损失。通过分析123例典型高处坠落事故调查报告,采用关键词检索抽取出19种导致该类事故发生的致因要素;针对一般事故和较大事故分别对致因要素发生频率进行了统计,得出一般事故中人的因素更关键,较大事故中物的因素更关键。采用ISM模型进一步分析致因要素间的作用关系,构建了7个层级的高处坠落致因要素解释结构模型;对不同层级要素进行分析,发现其与频率度量有良好的一致性,最后得出行政监管和违法承发包两个致因要素是事故发生的深层原因。     

基于BN的FTA在通用航空风险评价中的应用

针对事故树分析法(FTA)在风险评价中的局限性,采用以事故树为基础建立的贝叶斯网络(BN)风险模型,对通用航空中的两机空中相撞事故进行分析和推理,对事故模型进行改进和修正时,注重基事件的多态性和事件间的逻辑合理性。根据贝叶斯推理得出的数据,找到了事故的主要致因。结果表明,基于BN的FTA既能向前预测顶事件的发生概率,又能向后诊断基本事件的后验概率,可以更好地对通用航空风险进行评价。     

集装箱化危险品船载运输风险因子辨识

为保障集装箱化危险品船载运输安全,首先通过分析集装箱化危险品船载运输典型事故案例,初步辨识事故风险因子;其次构建集装箱化危险品船载运输事故树,计算临界概率重要度得到风险致因关键因子;然后建立致因关键因子的层次重要度分析模型,分析因子的层次重要度,得出风险致因关键因子的相对重要程度。结果表明:集装箱化危险品船载运输风险致因关键因子包括包装不当、装箱不当、环境温度过高和运输途中颠簸等6项,其中包装质量缺陷、环境温度过高2项最底层敏感因子,对货物事故发生概率的影响较大。     

不同事故致因模型中原因定义的比较研究

为探究不同事故致因模型对事故原因的定义和对事故分析结果的影响,选取4种事故致因模型,梳理模型中关于直接原因、间接原因、根本原因和根源原因方面的内容,并以内蒙古自治区赤峰宝马矿业有限责任公司“12.3”特别重大瓦斯爆炸事故为例,分别用4种事故致因模型进行原因分析,获得不同事故致因模型分析结果之间的差异。结果表明:4种事故致因模型在直接原因方面具有一定的重合,多米诺骨牌模型、瑞士奶酪模型和卓越安全管理模型由于信息缺失和模型中部分定义不明确,导致部分分析结果难以呈现,事故致因“2-4”模型对各部分事故原因的定义更为明确,可以使事故分析工作变得简单、有序,为事故分析工作提供理论支持。     

自然灾害与地质勘探劳动保护

自然灾害和人密切相关,这不仅表现在自然灾害施予的客体是人,人的伤亡和财产损失是自然灾害的标志,而且表现在自然灾害的发生受人类活动的强烈影响。地质勘探活动是人类改造自然获取财富的主要活动之一。它一方面遭受自然灾害的危害,另一方面存在诱发触发自然灾害的危险,自然灾害已成了地质勘探活动的巨大障碍。自然灾害特别是地质灾害(人工诱发触发地质灾害、地方病)和气象灾害的测、报、防、治、救措施和方法研究是地质勘探劳动保护的重要课题。     

聚乙烯醇/氧化石墨插层纳米复合材料的结构和热分析

制备了聚乙烯醇/氧化石墨插层纳米复合材料,并用X-射线衍射仪和高分辨电镜对其结构进行了表征.X-射线衍射仪和高分辨电镜的试验结果表明,氧化石墨和聚乙烯醇插层氧化石墨的层间距分别为0.89 nm和1.4nm.该纳米复合材料的热分析和热失重图说明,氧化石墨的加入有利于提高聚乙烯醇/氧化石墨纳米复合材料的玻璃化转变温度和氧化温度,同时也降低了其热释放速率.     

基于遗传算法的支持向量机预测有机物自燃点的研究

根据定量构效关系(QSPR)原理,研究自燃点(AIT)与其分子结构间的内在定量关系。以265种有机化合物作为样本集,随机选择238种作为训练集,27种作为测试集,用遗传算法(GA)进行变量选择,分别建立多元线性回归(MLR)模型和支持向量机(SVM)模型研究有机物的自燃点与其分子结构间的关系。通过分析,发现造成模型预测效果不佳的原因是试验数据本身存在问题。通过对2个模型的比较,结果为GA-SVM模型明显优于GA-MLR模型,说明自燃点与其分子结构间具有很强的非线性关系。     

Automation design in advanced control rooms of the modernized nuclear power plants

This study evaluated the effects of levels of automation (LOAs) decisions in advanced control rooms of the modernized nuclear power plants. Following advancements in design of digitalized human–system interfaces (HSIs), the roles of human operators have changed significantly. Negative performance and safety consequences may occur as a result of these changes. These problems are viewed as the out-of-the-loop (OOTL) performance problems. This study conducted an experiment to compare the effects of different LOAs under different operating procedures on operating performance. Experimental results indicated that blended decision-making (level 6 LOA) generates the lowest mental workload. Furthermore, the pattern of SA observed in this study is found better SA at intermediate LOA and poorer SA at low level of automation and full automation. Subjective rating results suggest that LOAs distribute the roles of option generation, and selection between human and/or computer servers which significantly impacts automated system performance. This study provides a direction for the HSI designers in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Additionally, based on results obtained by this study, the user interfaces of PCTRAN system and the alarm reset system should be improved to ensure safe operation of NPPs.     

Influence of ATD versus PMHS reference sensor inputs on computational brain response in frontal impacts to advanced combat helmet (ACH)

ABSTRACT

Objective: This study analyzed the influence of reference sensor inputs from anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) versus postmortem human subjects (PMHSs) on simulations of frontal blunt impacts to the advanced combat helmet (ACH).

Methods: A rigid-arm pendulum was used to generate frontal impacts to ACHs mounted on ATDs and PMHS. An appropriately sized ACH was selected according to standard fitting guidelines. The National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment (NOCSAE) head was selected for ATD tests due to shape features that enabled a realistic helmet fit. A custom procedure was used to mount a reference sensor internally near the center of gravity (CG) of the PMHS. Reference sensor data from the head CG were used as inputs for the Simulated Injury Monitor (SIMon). Brain responses were assessed with the cumulative strain damage measure set at 10%, or CSDM(10).

Results: Compared to ATD tests, PMHS tests produced 18.7% higher peak linear accelerations and 5.2% higher peak angular velocities. Average times to peak for linear accelerations were relatively similar between ATDs (5.5?ms) and PMHSs (5.8?ms). However, times to peak for angular velocities were higher by a factor of up to 3.4 for PMHSs compared to ATDs. Values for were also higher by a factor of up to 13.1 when PMHS inputs were used for SIMon.

Conclusions: The preliminary findings of this work indicate that small differences in ATD versus PMHS head kinematics could lead to large differences in strain-derived brain injury metrics such as CSDM.     

TMBR+NF/RO组合工艺处理垃圾渗滤液的工程应用

采用TMBR+NF/RO组合工艺对湖北省宜昌市某垃圾卫生填埋场渗滤液进行处理,介绍了组合工艺的流程、特点、设备规格、技术参数。TMBR系统对可生化降解COD处理后,COD平均质量浓度为822 mg/L,平均去除率为95.8%,对NH_3-N平均去除率为94.9%;经过NF/RO出水的COD平均值为45 mg/L,NH_3-N均小于25mg/L,达到《生活垃圾填埋场污染控制标准》(GB 16889—2008)的排放标准。组合工艺处理成本为29.5元/m3。     

Reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventers with condition-based maintenance using stochastic Petri nets

Blowout Preventer (BOP) has maintained its function as a safety barrier and the last line of defence against oil and gas spills since its development in the early 1900s. However, as drilling and exploration activities move further offshore, challenges pertaining to reliable operation of the subsea BOP systems continue to be a source of concern for stakeholders in the industry. In spite of recent advancements in reliability analysis of safety instrumented systems (SISs), the research on reliability assessment of BOP is still lacking in some regards. There are gaps in the literature with respect to the incorporation of preventive maintenance (PM) strategies as well as dynamic operating conditions into BOP reliability analysis. To address these gaps, this paper develops an advanced analysis method using stochastic Petri nets (SPN) to estimate the reliability of subsea BOP systems subject to condition-based maintenance (CBM) with different failure modes. The BOP system is divided into five subsystems which are connected in series with each other and categorised into degrading and binary units. The performance of the BOP system in terms of availability, reliability and mean-time-between failures (MTBF) is obtained and analysed. A sensitivity analysis is also performed to evaluate the effect of fault coverage factor and redundancy design on system performance. The results show that both the fault coverage factor and redundancy have significant impact on the BOP's reliability, availability and MTBF.     

Safety and kinetic parameters analysis for 1,1,-Di(tert-butylperoxy) cyclohexane mixed with monoammonium phosphate

Runaway reactions by organic peroxides have occurred throughout the world. In this study, we used 1,1,-Di(tert-butylperoxy) cyclohexane (CH) 70 mass% as the main material, which was extensively employed as initiator for styrene in polymerization. Fire extinguishers are the first fire-fighting apparatus when fires occur. If a fire extinguisher has sat idle for a long time, which would cause the extinguishing agent to damp, it cannot achieve the desired effect and be properly handled at the start of the accident, thereby causing more casualties and property losses. CH 70 mass% was employed to mixed with monoammonium phosphate (MAP) for understanding the phenomenon by applying differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Safety parameters also were carried out for more deeply understanding the basic characteristics for preventing an accident from occurring, in terms of applying CH 70 mass% as the initiator in the manufacturing process.     

引气剂和聚丙烯纤维对高水材料性质的影响研究

为了改变高水材料的破坏特点,采用引气剂和聚丙烯纤维双掺对其进行改性。试验结果表明:随着引气剂掺量的增加,浆体的流动性逐渐降低,混合浆液失流时间延长,试块密度和单轴抗压强度逐渐减小;聚丙烯纤维的掺入,对浆体流动性、失流时间、引气率影响均较小。聚丙烯纤维最佳掺量为2 kg/m3,引气剂和聚丙烯纤维的掺入使硬化体的弹性模量略有减小,且使试块由脆性破坏转变为延性破坏,在保持整体不散的情况下,提高其压缩量。SEM观察表明:钙矾石在气泡壁上集中生成,聚丙烯纤维与基体的界面处有利于针状钙矾石的生成,从而使聚丙烯纤维更好地发挥增强增韧的作用。     

Nonlinear molecular based modeling of the flash point for application in inherently safer design

New chemical process design strategies utilizing computer-aided molecular design (CAMD) can provide significant improvements in process safety by designing chemicals with required target properties and the substitution of safer chemicals. An important aspect of this methodology concerns the prediction of properties given the molecular structure. This study utilizes one such emerging method for prediction of a hazardous property, flash point (FP), which is in the center of attention in safety studies. Using such a reliable data set comprising 1651 organic and inorganic chemicals, from 79 diverse material classes, and robust dynamic binary particle swarm optimization for the feature selection step resulted in the most efficient molecular features of the FP investigations. Apart from the simple yet precise five-parameter multivariate model, the FP nonlinear behavior was thoroughly investigated by a novel hybrid of particle swarm optimization and support vector regression. Besides, 195 missing experimental FPs of the DIPPR data set are predicted via the presented procedure.