基于UHBs的输气管道高后果区泄漏燃爆事故分析

为探究输气管道高后果区中人的不安全行为（Unsafe Human Behaviors,UHBs）对输气管道泄漏燃爆事故发生的影响,结合模糊Bow-tie模型和贝叶斯网络对输气管道泄漏燃爆事故进行分析。构建基于T-S模糊故障树的输气管道泄漏燃爆模糊Bow-tie模型,并转化为贝叶斯网络;从人的不安全行为发生的可能性出发,将不同等级高后果区划分为不同等级人口敏感区;利用专家经验评判法得到不同等级人口敏感区基本事件的先验概率和中间事件的条件概率表;运用贝叶斯网络双向推理算法求解模糊Bow-tie模型。结果表明:随着地区人口敏感等级的提高,输气管道泄漏燃爆事故发生的概率随之增大,发现导致输气管道失效泄漏事故发生的最主要原因为施工破坏,失效原因与EGIG分析的结果基本相符,验证该方法在高后果区输气管道泄漏燃爆事故分析上的可行性,可为输气管道高后果区的安全管理提供决策依据。     

Experimental simulation of airbag deployment for pipeline closing

Small scale tests were carried out at ISL's shock tube facility STA (100 mm inner diameter) to study the problem of closing a pipeline by means of an airbag in case of explosions or gas leakages. Experiments were carried out to simulate the flow in a pipeline at velocities and gas pressures as present in pipeline flows. In this study the gas used was nitrogen at static pressures of 0.2 up to 5 MPa and at flow velocities of 25 m/s up to 170 m/s. A special Nylon airbag, deployed from the tube wall into the pipe, was used to simulate the airbag inflation in a real pipeline. For this purpose a special gas filling system consisting of a gas generator with a reservoir volume of up to 500 cm³ which permits air pressures up to 17 MPa to be generated inside the airbag was developed at ISL. With a fast pyrotechnically opened valve the reservoir gas was released for airbag filling. The airbag inflation was triggered in such a way that it opened in nearly 3 ms into the pipe flow generated by the shock tube and continued for about 10 ms. For this application a special measuring chamber was designed and constructed with 20 measuring ports. Through two window ports, located one in front of the other, the airbag inflation could be visualized with up to 50 successive flash sparks illuminating a fast rotating film inside a drum camera. Pressure measurements using commercially available PCB pressure gauges at 9 measuring ports placed along the inner tube surface gave some hints on the behaviour of the wall pressure during airbag deployment. As a result from the experiments performed it is to conclude, that, with the Nylon airbag samples available, the pipe flow cannot be blocked by the inflating airbag. The flow forces acting on the airbag during deployment are in the shock tube experiments of the order of about 1000 N, which are not balanced by the airbags' neck, fixing it to the shock tube wall. This outcome suggests that a mechanical support is required to fix the airbag in its place during inflation.     

多分支管道油气爆炸特性大涡模拟

为了研究油库常见的分支结构空间内发生油气爆炸时火焰和压力的传播特性,建立了基于WALE湍流模型及Zimont预混火焰模型的油气爆炸模型;模拟了6种不同分支管道结构空间内汽油/空气混合物爆炸发生发展过程;研究了分支管道数量及相对设置位置对爆炸超压的影响规律,以及分支管道对火焰传播形态和速度的影响规律;模拟结果与前人相关实验规律进行对比。研究结果表明:分支管道对汽油/空气混合气预混爆炸具有明显的强化激励作用;火焰锋面传播经过分支管道时,经历规则—褶皱—规则的变化过程;主管道内火焰传播速度,在分支管道对流场的突扩作用和湍流作用的共同影响下呈震荡变化的规律。     

Experimental study on water sealing of fire barriers and explosion venting of large-scale pipeline with low-concentration gas

Low-concentration gas transported in pipelines may lead to explosion accidents because gas with a concentration of less than 30% is prone to explode. To reduce the incidence of gas explosions, water sealing of fire barriers is implemented, and explosion venting devices are installed along the pipeline. To investigate their suppression effect on low-concentration gas explosion, experiments using methane–air premixed gas under different conditions were implemented on a DN500 pipeline test system. The effects of three types of explosion venting forms (rupture disc, asbestos board, and plastic film) on explosion overpressure and flame were compared and analysed. Results show that the rupture disc, asbestos board, and plastic film can achieve adequate explosion venting, causing the peak decay rates of explosion overpressure to reach 82.37%, 81.72%, and 90.79%, respectively. The foregoing indicates that the greater the static activation pressure of the explosion venting form, the higher the peak explosion overpressure at each measurement point. Moreover, the shorter the explosion flame duration, the greater the flame propagation velocity. The research results provide an essential theoretical foundation for the effective suppression of gas explosion accidents in the process of low-concentration gas transportation.     

管道内天然气爆炸火焰及压力波传播规律实验研究

天燃气安全不仅仅局限在企业内部,而是面向全社会,关系到社会稳定和市民生命财产安全。随着天然气市场开拓和广泛利用,庞大的管网系统和多样的用气环境给安全工作提出了更高的要求。采用理论分析、实验研究相结合的方法研究了管道内天然气爆炸火焰及压力波的传播规律。应用直径为700mm,长度为93m的管道进行了三次天然气爆炸传播实验。得出爆源点最大压力值并不是整个爆炸过程的最大值;压力波最大压力值在爆源点附近先降低,然后上升到某一峰值之后再逐渐衰减;最大压力值在衰减过程中不是单调衰减,有点起伏;随着天然气浓度的增大,其爆炸平均升压速率反而减小;随着天然气浓度的增大,其爆炸平均升压速率反而在减小;爆源附近火焰传播速度较小,上升到某一峰值后逐渐衰减。     

天然气管道泄漏爆炸后果评价模型对比分析

天然气管道失效可能导致多种严重后果,爆炸灾害给周围的人员和建筑物造成重大的危害,对其爆炸危害范围的评价进行研究具有重要现实意义。笔者综合分析蒸气云爆炸(VCE)定量评价模型和API pub 581后果评价模型;并以某输气管道为实例对爆炸后果进行了定量模拟评价;得到死亡区域与泄漏时间的关系,确定了其爆炸事故的伤害范围;对两种模型的评价结果进行了对比分析。爆炸后果评价模型的研究与其对比探讨,为今后输气管线的定量风险后果评价模型选取提供参考依据。     

基于SPH-FEM耦合法的含缺陷输气管道爆炸冲击响应研究

针对大口径埋地输气管道发生物理爆炸对并行含体积缺陷邻管的冲击行为，利用LS-DYNA和LS-PREPOST有限元软件建立基于光滑粒子流体动力学-有限单元法的管-土-炸药耦合模型，分析不同缺陷深度、不同缺陷表面积、不同缺陷位置和不同爆心距下邻管的动力响应；基于爆腔预估公式和峰值振速经验公式，验证了所建耦合模型的可靠性，并通过设计算例开展多工况分析。研究结果表明:迎爆面上的缺陷处为动力响应的热点区域，最大响应特征值（应力、位移与振速）位于缺陷中心处，随缺陷深度的增加或管间距的减小特征值增速由平缓到急剧；相比缺陷位置和表面尺寸对管道的扰动程度，缺陷深度和爆心距对管道的动力响应影响较大；在本研究的条件下，建议埋地并行输气管道的安全间距不应小于5.16 m，且腐蚀深度不大于管道壁厚的0.633 6倍。研究结果可为埋地输气管道极端灾害下的风险评估提供技术支撑，为并行管道可能的抗爆隔爆设计提供模拟数据支持。     

管道内瓦斯爆炸传播的试验研究

运用大型试验管道对瓦斯爆炸传播规律进行试验研究,并对瓦斯爆炸压力峰值、火焰速度和呈现时间进行分析,得出:在不出现爆轰的前提下,爆源点附近的压力峰值是全管道的最大值;爆炸压力峰值在沿管道的传播过程中从爆源点附近是先增大后减小,然后再逐渐增大且压力峰值最早呈现在出口附近;火焰传播速度随着传播距离的增大而逐渐增大且在爆炸初期增大速率更快;瓦斯浓度对爆炸压力峰值、火焰传播速度和呈现时间等都有重要影响。     

长径比对管道油气爆炸特性与火焰传播规律影响研究*

为了探究长径比对油气爆炸传播特性与火焰传播规律的影响，为复杂管道受限空间油气爆炸防控提供理论参考，结合油气爆炸与爆炸抑制工程实际需要，构建不同长径比管道油气爆炸模拟实验系统,在此基础上开展不同初始浓度的预混油气-空气混合气爆炸实验。研究结果表明:管道内部的预混油气爆炸超压信号呈先上升后下降的趋势，由于耗散以及憋压效应导致超压下降平稳后仍大于初始压力；同时长径比增加会导致达到最大爆炸超压的油气浓度增加，油气爆炸超压峰值随着长径比的增加呈现上升→下降→上升的规律，小长径比管道的油气爆炸超压峰值高于大长径比管道，但同为小长径比管道或大长径比管道工况的实验结果对比显示爆炸超压峰值随着长径比增加而提升；而超压上升速率则会随着长径比的增加而上升；长径比的增加同时也会促进火焰的加速传播并减小火焰持续时间。     

障碍物对瓦斯爆炸冲击波影响研究

为研究障碍物对瓦斯爆炸冲击波传播规律的影响,利用水平管道式气体——粉尘爆炸实验装置,测试并分析障碍物数量、尺寸和壁面粗糙程度对瓦斯爆炸冲击波超压、冲击波传播规律的影响。结果表明:障碍物对瓦斯爆炸过程中冲击波传播规律具有重要影响。障碍物存在时,改变了爆炸冲击波的传播规律,提高了冲击波超压的最大峰值压力,且随着障碍物数量和尺寸的增加,这种激励作用越明显。随着壁面粗糙程度的增大,瓦斯爆炸冲击波超压明显增大。研究结果对井下巷道瓦斯爆炸冲击波的防治具有一定的指导意义。     

Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

输气管道高后果区蒸气云爆炸超压预测方法探究*

为准确预测输气管道高后果区在发生蒸气云爆炸事故时的超压分布情况,对国内外运用较为广泛的蒸气云爆炸超压预测经验模型和数值模拟方法进行调研,并分别应用其对某输气管道全尺寸泄漏燃爆实验进行超压预测,结合实验数据和输气管道高后果区管理现状进行方法准确性和工程适用性分析。研究结果表明:基于等效TNT假设的Henrych模型、Mills模型和等效TNT当量数值模拟方法均不适合准确预测蒸气云爆炸超压,TNO多能法和混合气体数值模拟方法所预测的结果较为接近实验结果。TNO多能法使用简便且推广性强,但主观性较大,易高估或低估爆炸后果;混合气体数值模拟方法操作繁琐且推广性差,但分析结果精度较高。在对高后果区进行安全管控时,可结合TNO多能法与混合气体数值模拟方法同时对管道工况进行评估,确定TNO多能法的爆源强度等级,继而推广使用TNO多能法。该研究结果可在较大程度上保证评估的准确性并节约成本。     

An integrated methodology to manage risk factors of aging urban oil and gas pipelines

Aging urban oil and gas pipelines have a high failure probability due to their structural degradation and external interference. The operational safety of the aging urban oil and gas pipeline is challenged by different hazards. This paper proposes a novel methodology by integrating an index-based risk evaluation system and fuzzy TOPSIS model for risk management of aging urban oil and gas pipelines, and it is carried out by evaluating the priority of hazards affecting pipeline safety. Firstly, the hazard factors of aging urban oil and gas pipelines are identified to establish an index-based risk evaluation system. Subsequently, the fuzzy TOPSIS model is employed to evaluate the importance of these hazard factors and to decide which factors should be managed with priority. This work measures the importance of a hazard factor from three aspects, i.e. occurrence (O), severity (S) and detectability (D), and the weights of these three parameters are determined by a combination weight method. Eventually, the proposed methodology is tested by an industrial case to illustrate its effectiveness, and some safety strategies to reduce the operational risk of the pipeline are presented. The proposed methodology is a useful tool to implement more efficient risk management of aging urban oil and gas pipelines.     

城区天然气管道泄漏数值模拟与爆炸危害分析

在人口密度为三级和四级的城区内,密集的高建筑物对天然气管道泄漏后的扩散和流场形成产生重要影响。本文以某城市的实际情况为例,建立多建筑物的空间几何模型,采用k-ε湍流方程,SIMPLE算法,模拟了在三种不同风流速度、三种不同压力条件下,城区天然气管道泄漏气体在多建筑物地形中的扩散情况。根据模拟结果,依据天然气的爆炸极限,对模拟结果及其火灾爆炸危害的范围进行了对比分析。结果表明,CH4气体的泄漏扩散同时受管道压力、风流速度和周围建筑物的影响;同时受当地风速的影响,泄漏气柱在风流作用下会发生偏折,造成阻挡风流的建筑物内侧危险气体浓度升高,大大增加建筑物周围环境的危险性。研究结果对城区天然气管道的建设具有一定的指导意义。     

基于超压值地铁上覆管道爆炸对隧道及人员安全影响研究*

为分析地铁上覆管道爆炸对乘客安全影响,采用基于超压冲击波阀值数值模拟,通过将泄漏气体能量等效为TNT当量,分析不同泄漏模式爆炸冲击波对地铁隧道及人员安全影响。结果表明:爆炸产生的超压冲击波对隧道及人员影响小于限值,不会造成人员伤亡,研究结果可为地下工程下穿油气管线安全影响分析提供理论支撑。     

大长径比管道汽油-空气混合气爆炸与抑制实验研究*

为探究狭长受限空间中油气爆炸失控时的发展状态,探索高效环保的油气爆炸抑制方法,利用长径比155的管道开展92号汽油-空气混合气爆炸发展规律和七氟丙烷主动抑爆技术研究。通过测量不同端部开口条件下油气爆炸超压、火焰传播速度、火焰强度等参数,对比研究空爆和抑爆工况下的油气爆炸变化规律,探讨长直管道中的油气爆炸特性,分析七氟丙烷抑爆效果。结果表明:大长径比管道中,端部开口泄爆对降低油气爆炸破坏能力的作用较小,开口与否对最大超压峰值的出现位置有影响;长直管道空爆时,油气爆炸由爆燃发展成爆轰,管道尾部的爆轰波速可达近2 000 m/s;密闭管道中,爆轰发生前火焰传播呈“已燃区-火焰锋面-待燃区-前驱激波-未燃区”的2波3区结构;主动抑爆方式下七氟丙烷抑爆效果良好,最大超压峰值降低幅度可达90%,火焰传播被及时阻断。     

埋地油气管道沿线土壤腐蚀性可拓评价研究

油气管道长期埋设在土壤环境中会受到各种侵蚀介质的腐蚀并引发泄漏、火灾、爆炸等事故。针对土壤腐蚀因素复杂多变的特点,建立基于物元、可拓集合和关联函数的埋地油气管道沿线土壤腐蚀性评价模型;选取土壤电阻率、自然电位、氧化还原电位、pH值、含水率、Cl-含量、SO42-含量7个评价指标,将土壤对油气管道腐蚀的严重程度划分为低、较低、中、强和较强5个等级;采用客观赋权的变异系数法（CV法）来确定土壤腐蚀性评价指标的权重,避免了以往评价方法的主观性,进一步提高模型的精度和效率。以某埋地天然气管道5个管段土壤为例,可拓评价结果表明4#土壤的腐蚀性较强,其他土壤腐蚀性中等,这与外腐蚀检测结果吻合,证明所想出的模型简便、高效、精确,具有很好的科学性和工程应用性。     

Thermal interaction analysis in pipeline systems: A case study

The assessment of the consequences of high pressure releases of flammable gases is a fundamental requirement for the safe design and operation of industrial installations, plants and pipework. A scenario of interest concerns a high pressure jet-fire following the ignition of a gas jet release which results in a thermal loading to the surroundings and possibly leads to accident escalation.

In the present paper, a case study is presented: two parallel-laid natural gas pipelines have been considered, the accidental scenarios which may possibly occur as a consequence of a pipeline failure have been discussed and the thermal effects caused by the jet-fire developing from different rupture sizes have been assessed.

Three scenarios have been analyzed, considering the pipelines being within a highly congested area: (i) large failure and vertical jet with detached flame; (ii) small failure with jet fire directly impinging on the parallel pipeline; (iii) small failure with pipeline engulfed within fire.

Once the temperature gradient through the pipeline wall has been found, the stresses deriving from pressure load and steel differential expansion have been analytically calculated and compared with the yielding stresses at the temperature achieved by the pipeline wall.

In the first scenario the pipeline is able to resist without major problems; in the second case the pipeline rupture is likely to occur; in the third scenario the pipeline resists to the applied loads but with a low margin to yielding.

It is understood that the analysis results are very much dependent on the utilized hypotheses, therefore a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to assess the variation of the results as a function of the variation of problem data; this analysis identifies the large influence of the parameters on the final result.     

惰性气体抑制瓦斯爆燃火焰传播特性实验研究*

为研究惰性气体抑制瓦斯爆燃火焰传播特性,在自行搭建的中尺度爆炸激波管道上,采用数据采集系统、压电式传感器、火焰传感器、同步控制系统和激光纹影测试系统,通过对比4种不同喷射压力（0.5,1.5,2.5,3.5 MPa）的实验工况,选用N2做为惰性介质时抑制火焰的传播特性与喷射压力密切相关,火焰传播速度随着喷射压力增加呈现先增加后减弱的趋势。研究结果表明:少量N2在管道中扩散,加剧了未反应预混气体的扰动状态,造成火焰阵面褶皱的卷吸能力增强,进而加速化学反应进程,促进预混气体燃烧;喷射压力为1.5 MPa时,火焰阵面拉升、变形最强,火焰传播速度提高,最高可达到250 m/s;喷射压力为3.5 MPa时,火焰阵面出现明显三维凹陷结构,运动发生明显滞后现象,火焰传播速度大幅度降低至5.4 m/s,惰性气体抑制火焰传播效果明显。     

障碍物在分岔附近对瓦斯爆炸压力影响的实验研究*

为研究置障条件下不同分岔角度管道中瓦斯爆炸压力变化规律，采用长15 m、截面为160 mm×100 mm的矩形和直径160 mm的半圆形组成的拱形模拟巷道，通过改变分岔角附近障碍物的形状与阻塞比，研究瓦斯爆炸在30~45°与30~60°双分岔管道分岔角附近的压力变化规律。结果表明:瓦斯爆炸在30~45°和30~60°双分岔管道中，分岔角后2支管压力均有所增大，且45°和60°支管中压力变化较30°支管更加明显；障碍物位于30°分岔角后，当阻塞比为0.4时，障碍物形状对2~4测点爆炸压力的影响均表现为矩形最大，拱形次之，圆形最小；管道中矩形障碍物对2,3测点爆炸压力的影响随阻塞比增加而增大，对测点4爆炸压力的影响则随阻塞比的增加而减小；设置矩形障碍物时，30~45°双分岔管道中2,3测点的压力增幅大于30~60°双分岔管道，且压力增幅随阻塞比增加而增大，而测点4的表现则相反，30~60°双分岔管道大于30~45°双分岔管道，且压力增幅随阻塞比增加而减小。