A fuzzy DEMATEL method to evaluate critical operational hazards during gas freeing process in crude oil tankers

Gas freeing process in crude oil tanker ships is widely recognized one of the most hazardous aspects of shipboard operations. Although the process provides practical benefits to ship by removing the explosive or poisonous gases from the cargo tanks and raising the oxygen level up to 21 percent, the consequences of failure may cause serious damage to human health, marine environment and cargo. Therefore, the crew exercise utmost care and become aware of the potential hazards in gas freeing process. In this context, this paper provides a fuzzy DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method to evaluate critical operational hazards in gas freeing process. While the DEMATEL method enables to identify and analyse the potential hazards of gas freeing process with respect to causal–effect relation diagram, fuzzy sets deal with the uncertainty in decision-making and human judgements through the DEMATEL. Thus, the hybrid approach provides smart solution for safety practitioners to prevent critical hazards in gas freeing process. The results of the research will contribute to maritime safety at sea and prevention of environment pollution as well as loss of life on-board crude oil tankers ships.     

Quantitative evaluation of precautions on chemical tanker operations

Large quantities of liquid chemicals are carried by chemical tankers all over seas. Chemical cargoes have different properties and chemical tankers are complex ships that are designed to carry different types of chemical cargoes. Carriage of chemical cargoes contains different hazards both for human life and marine environment. There are several cargo operations that are regularly done on chemical tankers such as loading, discharging, inerting, washing tanks, sampling, and freeing gas. These operations constitute their own risks. Therefore, risk assessment has become a critical issue in maritime industry. The present investigation of this study is attempting to examine the priorities of precautions that are taken by chemical tankers before, during, and after cargo operations. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used for prioritizing the precautions in order to clarify the risk assesment option that will be used for pro-active approach to prevent marine casualties. The main aim of this study is to identify an appropriate management tool to increase the level of safety for chemical tankers during cargo operations at a terminal by using the results of AHP application.     

基于N-K模型的海上交通安全风险因素耦合分析

为定量分析海上交通安全风险因素间的影响关系,识别导致海上交通事故的关键因素,分别从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度分析了人、船、环境、管理等风险因素间的耦合关系,运用N-K模型构建了海上交通安全风险耦合度量模型,结合中国海事局、德国联邦海事事故调查局、英国船舶事故调查局和美国国家运输安全委员会等海事调查机构公布的710起海上交通事故,利用所构建的模型计算出不同风险耦合的发生概率和风险值。结果表明:风险耦合因素越多,海上交通事故的发生概率越高;人的因素是引发海上交通事故的重要原因。     

基于DEMATEL方法的海运行为形成因子影响关系分析

为揭示并量化海运人因可靠性分析(HRA)中行为形成因子(PSF)间复杂的影响关系,采用DEMATEL方法对航海人员值班任务中9个PSF的依赖关系进行建模和分析,并验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:船上组织的完善程度、驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、可用时间等PSF在系统中的作用大;船上组织的完善程度、人机界面(MMI)与运行支持的完善性、值班区间以及培训和准备的充分性4个PSF为原因因素,驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、同时出现的目标任务数量、可用时间、船上工作及船舶航行条件和操作规程/计划的可用性5个PSF为结果因素。安全管理人员应针对作用大或原因因素中的PSF制定安全管理措施,改善情景环境,提高人因可靠性。     

基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

液化石油气站装卸连接装置改造的安全隐患分析

针对目前液化石油气站内装卸软管已强制要求改装为液体装卸臂的现状,本文梳理了原质监部门和安监部门对液化石油气站内装卸连接装置的不同要求,对在用液体装卸臂改造存在的安全隐患和后续的监管问题进行了分析,并对液体装卸臂的改造和监管提出了几点建议.     

The current status and future issues in human evacuation from ships

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) developed guidelines in May 1999 for the evacuation analysis of Ro-Ro passenger ships to prevent loss of life in maritime accidents. However, IMO considered these guidelines only as an interim measure and allocated 3 years for their improvement and further development as very limited experience and data were available. In this paper, the requirements of the IMO and current research regarding ship evacuation are reviewed. In addition, applicable evacuation models are presented as well as several experimental methods of obtaining the data of human behavior in regard to listing and the dynamic effect of waves on a ship are evaluated. Recommendations on further issues are discussed at the end.     

Designing for safety in passenger ships utilizing advanced evacuation analyses—A risk based approach

This paper describes a novel set of well-defined evacuation scenarios for use in advanced evacuation analyses of passenger ships according to present maritime safety regulations. The scenarios are based on a recently performed risk assessment of passenger ship evacuation and can be related to actual accident scenarios, covering the major hazards passenger ships are exposed to. Furthermore, a risk-based methodology for using the set of scenarios in evacuation performance evaluation is proposed and it is demonstrated how the scenarios can be used to relate actual design options to the overall level of risk associated with the ship.The paper includes a brief introduction and describes the background for developing the evacuation scenarios. The results from a recently performed risk assessment is reviewed and it is explained how this can be used as basis for deriving a complete set of realistic evacuation scenarios. Furthermore, it is outlined how to use the evacuation scenarios to estimate the overall risk associated with a specific passenger ship. Finally, possible future developments of the maritime safety regulations have been discussed and it has been demonstrated how the proposed set of scenarios will facilitate the emergence of truly risk based probabilistic safety regulations.     

铝土矿海上运输安全风险研究综述

基于易流态化固体散装货物的定义,将具有类似特性的铝土矿作为研究对象,通过梳理易流态化固体散装货物海上运输风险的研究现状,评述2类研究方法——船舶与海洋工程方法和系统安全工程方法,探讨货物含水量及其本质物理属性作为热点的研究脉络,研讨作为承载工具的船舶适装性及其稳性特征,论述自然环境对船舶和货物的影响,探究船舶营运的全过程风险,归纳了有关流态化机理的研究结论。铝土矿安全运输的研究和实践表明国际航运业对铝土矿船运时的流态化机理尚不清晰、研究方法不足、应对措施不强,展望未来应开展以下工作:健全铝土矿海上运输监管机制、强化铝土矿与散货船的耦合机理研究、开展铝土矿运输船舶营运的过程风险研究、推进铝土矿海运安全风险管理的智能化。     

人员可靠性分析及人员可靠性数据管理系统研究

人员可靠性在系统可靠性计算中占的比重越来越大 ,人因失误事件的分析及其管理也成为安全管理的重要组成部分。为更加有效、准确地进行人员可靠性分析和人因失误事件的管理 ,提高系统的安全性 ,建立一个人员可靠性分析及人员可靠性数据管理系统是非常必要的 :首先为人员可靠性分析和人因事件管理提供一个有用的计算机辅助工具 ;再者通过建立具有一定规模的人员可靠性数据库 ,以便为今后进一步的研究提供良好的数据支持。笔者简述了该系统的一些基本原理和实现的主要功能。     

A comprehensive assessment system for the maritime traffic environment

It is desirable when drawing up a maritime traffic environmental project or a project for consolidating port and harbour facilities, that the safety of the maritime environment for shipping-traffic is assessed quantitatively, and that the rationale of a given project and the proposed safety measures are evaluated in an objective manner.In this report, the system flow and procedures to integrally assess the safety of the maritime traffic environment by systematically combining various simulation techniques are discussed first.Subsequently, the quantitative risk evaluation procedure for collisions of ships in waters with a high traffic density, among the assessment procedures above, and an outline of the shipping traffic flow simulation capable of reproducing ships′ movements, are described. In evaluating the results of simulations, a method introducing Subjective Judgement values (SJ-values) as indexes manifesting the subjective degree of danger felt by shiphandlers, is shown. The SJ-values were experimentally determined from simulator experiments using parameters representing the relation ship with other ships proceeding in the vicinity.Finally, some of the results of studies conducted for the recent construction of new LNG berths in Tokyo Bay are introduced as an example of practical safety assessment in this field.     

LPG船液货泄漏事故风险评估系统研究

通过对液化石油气(LPG)船舶液货舱泄漏事故危险度因素分析,建立液化气液体货物泄漏源强、蒸气释放源强和蒸气扩散计算模型,并制定泄漏事故风险评价流程,基于VB语言编写泄漏事故风险评估系统。利用该系统能够计算得出泄漏事故发生后蒸发气在不同时刻不同区域的蒸发气浓度、爆炸或火灾后对生命财产的伤害半径以及伤害程度等相关参数。对某航行状态下的LPG实船进行模拟分析,结果表明能够对LPG船舶泄漏事故进行有效风险评估,并能对船舶航行安全应急预案的制定和事故后海事鉴定提供一定的技术帮助。     

基于ISM的油港集疏运作业安全风险分析

油港集疏运作业安全对油港运营安全管理至关重要。通过实地调研、访谈及问卷调查确定了油港集疏运作业安全风险因素;分析各因素间的直接影响关系,建立邻接矩阵和可达矩阵,构建了油港集疏运作业安全影响因素的解释结构模型;通过不同层级之间的关系分析,找出了油港集疏运作业过程中优先级较高的风险因素。结果表明,表层风险因素多为设备因素,中层风险因素集中于港内自身和港外环境因素,深层风险因素主要为人为因素和安全管理因素。     

人因失误的机理及其可靠性研究

随着科技的发展 ,在系统安全中 ,机器设备可靠性越来越高 ,由于人本身的复杂性 ,人因失误变得愈来愈严重。本文基于人行为的原理 ,对人因失误的机理、影响人失误的因素、人行为的模型和失误模型及其可靠性的量化进行了分析 ,建立了计算人可靠性的威布尔分布模型 ,并对其参数进行了讨论 ,可用此来评价人的可靠性。     

Safety in shipping: the human element

INTRODUCTION: There are numerous diverse papers that have addressed issues within maritime safety; to date there has been no comprehensive review of this literature to aggregate the causal factors within accidents in shipping and surmise current knowledge. METHODS: This paper reviewed the literature on safety in three key areas: common themes of accidents, the influence of human error, and interventions to make shipping safer. The review included 20 studies of seafaring across the following areas: fatigue, stress, health, situation awareness, teamwork, decision-making, communication, automation, and safety culture. RESULTS: The review identifies the relative contributions of individual and organizational factors in shipping accidents, and also presents the methodological issues with previous research. CONCLUSIONS: The paper concludes that monitoring and modifying the human factors issues presented in this paper could contribute to maritime safety performance. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This review illustrates which human factors issues are prevalent in incidents therefore this gives shipping practitioners a focus for interventions.     

海上火车渡轮航行安全的研究

海上火车轮渡在国外得到了广泛的应用并取得了新进展,但在我国尚属空白。海上火车轮渡应是我国交通发展的方向之一。海上火车渡轮的航行安全是海上火车轮渡工程的关键问题。从船舶安全、装载货物安全、人员安全三方面,对影响渡轮航行安全的各因素进行了分析与论述,同时提出了相应的安全对策与措施     

基于AIS数据的长江口船舶排放清单研究

为了研究繁忙水域的船舶排放清单,基于船舶自识别系统(Automatic Identification System,AIS)的数据建立了针对不同船型的船舶排放计算模型。先根据AIS数据中包含的船舶尺度数据计算各类船型的发动机功率,然后运用基于AIS数据的模型计算船舶排放清单及排放分担率,最后对船舶排放的空间分布进行分析。以2010年长江口水域的船舶交通流数据为基础,计算该水域的船舶排放清单,结果表明:1)在各类船舶废气排放物中,CO2排放量最多,NOx和SOx次之,N2O最少,结果合理可信;2)各类船型的排放分担率分别为5.36%(客船)、6.59%(散货船)、51.47%(集装箱船)、15.95%(油船)、5.37%(渔船)、15.27%(其他船型);3)船舶排放聚集区主要是长江口的南、北槽航段及其附近的码头水域。     

船舶设备事故中的人为因素分析与控制研究

根据设备维修系统设备维修的人为失误环节和船员失误分析模式以及轮机管理人员具有明感知设备的运行状态、隐感知设备的故障趋势等特点,实施有效管控措施。结合航运市场特性,基于设备可靠度,提出风险性和经济性的维修方式策略,可大幅提高航运公司的安全航运水平和经济效益。利用维修系统的信息流,建立了船舶设备维修管理信息系统,整合设备运行状态、船员的综合素质状态及组织管理信息,以便于阻断导致事故发生的事件链,提高航运公司的船舶运输安全。     

长江航行安全问题的研究

运输船舶规模大 ,载货量或载客量非常大 ,一旦发生海损事故 ,带来的直接经济损失和间接损失都难以估算。笔者提出了运用先进的通信技术和通信设备 ,对长江航行船舶进行安全监控 ;针对船舶海事中 70 %是碰撞事故的事实 ,提出了长江船舶避碰预警系统的设计思路和技术路线 ;长江航运各有关机构则应恪尽职守 ,确保船舶具有良好的适航性。这些新观念和新思路对减少长江海损事故都有着积极的现实意义     

On the operator action analysis to reduce operational risk in research reactors

Human errors during operation and the resulting increase in operational risk are major concerns for nuclear reactors, just as they are for all industries. Additionally, human reliability analysis together with probabilistic risk analysis is a key element in reducing operational risk. The purpose of this paper is to analyze human reliability using appropriate methods for the probabilistic representation and calculation of human error to be used alongside probabilistic risk analysis in order to reduce the operational risk of the reactor operation. We present a technique for human error rate prediction and standardized plant analysis risk. Human reliability methods have been utilized to quantify different categories of human errors, which have been applied extensively to nuclear power plants. The Tehran research reactor is selected here as a case study, and after consultation with reactor operators and engineers human errors have been identified and adequate performance shaping factors assigned in order to calculate accurate probabilities of human failure.