Fuzzy logic-based approach for identifying the risk importance of human error

In the system reliability and safety assessment, the focuses are not only the risks caused by hardware or software, but also the risks caused by “human error”. There are uncertainties in the traditional human error risk assessment (e.g. HECA) due to the uncertainties and imprecisions in Human Error Probability (HEP), Error-Effect Probability (EEP) and Error Consequence Severity (ECS). While fuzzy logic can deal with uncertainty and imprecision. It is an efficient tool for solving problems where knowledge uncertainty may occur. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new Fuzzy Human Error Risk Assessment Methodology (FHERAM) for determining Human Error Risk Importance (HERI) as a function of HEP, EEP and ECS. The modeling technique is based on the concept of fuzzy logic, which offers a convenient way of representing the relationships between the inputs (i.e. HEP, EEP, and ECS) and outputs (i.e. HERI) of a risk assessment system in the form of IF–THEN rules. It is implemented on fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB using Mamdani techniques. A case example is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach. Results show that the method is more realistic than the traditional ones, and it is practicable and valuable.     

Human error analysis in furnace start-up operation using HEART under intuitionistic fuzzy environment

To address human error in system reliability, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is an essential issue. Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) as a rather straightforward technique for HRA has successfully been used in many areas to predict human error probability (HEP). However, knowledge acquisition of experts during assessed proportion of affect (APOA) calculation is subjected to vagueness and ambiguity. To overcome this challenge, in this paper Intuitionistic Fuzzy (IF) set due to their advantage to represent more fuzzy information than a classical fuzzy set adopted through APOA calculation. To demonstrate this hybrid approach short for, IF-HEART, the furnace start-up operation is handled, since analysis shows that most of explosions and losses occur during furnace start-ups operation. Further, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to approve the proposed integrated approach. In addition to its academic contribution, the results of the paper enable to improve the overall safety level of a furnace by taking into account potential human error.     

Consideration on safety for emerging technology – Case studies of seven service robots

Despite the fact that several manufacturers of service robots launched their innovations into the market, worldwide guidelines or regulations concerning the safety aspects of service robots are not yet available. However the general principles and methodologies of safety of machinery (e.g., ISO/IEC Guide 51, partly ISO14121, ISO12100) could be implemented to a certain degree. The safety of seven service robots as an emerging technology was verified by safety professionals of “NPO – the Safety Engineering Laboratory” a Non Profit Organization. NPO verified the “Critical Hazards” for each service robot mentioned by the respective manufacturers. For those cases, both the “As Low As Reasonably Practicable” principle and the “Reasonable Alternative Design” standard were applied for judging if the risk associated with the Critical Hazards were tolerable or not and if state of the art measures for reducing the risk were applied adequately. These experiences will help to establish guidelines for the safety of service robots as an emerging technology in the future.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

Risk-based quantitative method for determining blast-resistant and defense loads of petrochemical buildings

Petrochemical buildings are usually distributed near chemical installations and have a high risk of explosion because of the concentration of people. In order to effectively design and protect buildings against explosion, it is needed to determine the blast-resistant and defense loads reasonably. Based on the theory of risk, a triangular pyramid explosion risk model was established in this study, which combined the overpressure p, duration t, and frequency f of the explosion scene at the same time. The first principle of “acceptable cumulative frequency” and the key principle of “maximum explosion risk” were formulated. According to this method, the explosion risk of eight leakage units with 10 groups of leakage hole size and three dangerous wind directions were obtained. According to the cumulative explosion frequency curve and the explosion risk curve, blast-resistant and defense loads of the four walls were determined quantitatively. Among the four walls, the explosion overpressure were 44.0–74.5 kPa, and the corresponding duration were 34.1–39.1 ms. The cumulative explosion frequency were 2.11E−5 to 8.58E−5 times annually. The explosion risk value were 3.64E−3 to 5.35E−3 kPa·ms annually. The results indicated that it was of great importance for the calculation of the explosion risk to reasonably divide the leakage unit and determine the leakage frequency. The explosion scene and its frequency, the volume of the obstructed region, and the distance of the explosion source were the key variables that affected the explosive load. The final blast-resistant and defense load values were found in the case of the middle hole size leakage. Blast-resistant and defense loads not only met the risk acceptance standard but also considered the overpressure and the duration of explosion. At present, they have been extensively applied in the blast-resistant design and engineering transformation of buildings in SINOPEC.     

综合安全评价(FSA)方法

为提高国际海运安全管理的决策水平,国际海事组织(IMO)接受并倡导由英国海运界提出的综合安全评价(FSA)方法,笔者对FSA方法作了本质性分析和应用性研究。阐述了FSA的由来,5个组成步骤及相互关系和流程,揭示了FSA与风险管理和安全系统工程的渊源;介绍了危险识别的7种工具;对步骤二“风险评估”重点引入了半定量分析方法和定量分析方法,并用集合论观点讨论了事故频率和后果严重度的计算方法;介绍了风险控制方案的“成本与效益评估”的数学模型;归纳了FSA方法的优缺点。指出FSA是一种集风险评价和成本/效益评估于一体,兼顾技术性与经济性,可广泛兼容具体评价方法和普遍适用各类风险评价的框架性方法,但具体应用需要有效整合适用的定性和定量方法。     

Consequence risk analysis using operating procedure event trees and dynamic simulation

Faults due to human errors cost the petrochemical industry billions of dollars every year and can have adverse environmental consequences. Unquantified human error probabilities exist during process state transitions performed each day by process operators using standard operating procedures. Managing the risks associated with operating procedures is an essential part of managing the overall safety risk. Additional operator training and safety education cannot eliminate all such faults due to human errors; therefore, we propose an operating procedure event tree (OPET) like analysis with branches and events specifically designed to perform risk analysis on operating procedures. The OPET method adapts event trees to analyze the risk due to human error while performing operating procedures. We consider human error scenarios during the procedure and determine the likely consequences by applying dynamic simulation. The modified event tree provides an estimate of the error frequencies.Operating procedure steps were developed, and potential operator faults were determined for two typical equipment switching procedures found in chemical plant operations. Then, dynamic simulation using Aspen HYSYS software was applied to determine the overpressure related consequences of each fault. Finally, the error frequencies resulting from those scenarios were analyzed using operating procedure event trees. We found that a typical ethylene plant gas header would overpressure with 0.6% frequency per manual dryer switch. Since dryer switches occur from every few days up to once per shift, these results suggest that dryer switching should be automated to ensure safe and environmentally friendly operation. Process dryer switching performed manually by operators opening and closing gate valves can be automated with control valves and a distributed control system. A sample distillation column was found to overpressure with 0.85% frequency per manual reflux pump switch.     

Human error risk analysis in offshore emergencies

Human factors play an important role in the completion of emergency procedures. Human factors analysis is rooted in the concept that humans make errors, and the frequency and consequences of these errors are related to work environment, work culture, and procedures. This can be accounted for in the design of equipment, structures, processes, and procedures. As stress increases, the likelihood of human error also increases. Offshore installations are among the harshest and most stressful work environments in the world. The consequences of human error in an offshore emergency can be severe.A method has been developed to evaluate the risk of human error during offshore emergency musters. Obtaining empirical data was a difficult process, and often little information could be drawn from it. This was especially an issue in determining the consequences of failure to complete muster steps. Based on consequences from past incidents in the offshore industry and probabilities of human error, the level of risk and its tolerability are determined. Using the ARAMIS (accidental risk assessment methodology for industries) approach to safety barrier analysis, a protocol for choosing and evaluating safety measures to reduce and re-assess the risk was developed. The method is assessed using a case study, the Ocean Odyssey incident, to determine its effectiveness. The results of the methodology agree with the analysis of survivor experiences of the Ocean Odyssey incident.     

Risk assessment tools incorporating human error probabilities in the Japanese small-sized establishment

Although it has been estimated that as many as 80% of all occupational accidents have human errors as a cause, no risk assessment tools incorporating human-related elements have been developed for small companies. Human error probability (HEP) and human error analysis (HEA) have been used for large-scale, safety-critical industries for last three decades, but these tools are not suitable for smaller, more general industries that comprise the majority of accident settings.Here, we describe and verify a risk assessment tool that includes human-related elements for small companies. The tool expands on traditional risk assessment methods, such as matrix, risk graph and numerical scoring method, by adding human-related elements. The tool is easy-to-use in occupational environments, and includes assessments of human behavior and potentially outdated machinery at work place.     

中小企业“4+1”安全管理与监管模式研究

在对全国中小企业安全生产状况调查的基础上,分析了中小企业的安全生产现状其数量多、绝大多数在乡镇街道、生产安全事故多发、职业病危害严重、从业人员素质低、生产力水平低;政府针对中小企业的安全监管人员数量少;乡镇街道的安全生产中介服务机构数量少,服务内容单一。因此,提出了中小企业安全生产监督管理“4+1”模式,其中“4”是指中小企业、政府安全监管部门、中介机构和社会监督部门的安全生产管理、监管、服务、监督体系,“1”是指提高监管效能的运行保障机制。该模式从宏观上为政府监管中小企业提出了一种新的思路,从微观上为中小企业、政府安全监管部门、中介服务机构、社会监督部门的安全生产工作提出了新的方法。     

论本质安全

考查“本质安全”一词的出处 ;介绍了几种“本质安全”的论述 ;讨论了“以人为本”和“人本管理”与本质安全 ;从政治和哲学的高度 ,论述了政治、现象与本质的内涵与关系 ;探讨了美国及发达国家是否有“本质安全”;分析了现代资本家重视职业安全卫生的实质。笔者对以上问题阐明了自已的观点 ,并对一些提法给以评述。     

谈职业健康安全管理体系审核的有效性

笔者从审核人日、抽样的合理性、审核员能力、审核过程的有效性等4个方面讨论了职业健康安全管理体系(OHSMS)审核的有效性。从要素的角度,介绍国家标准GB/T28001—2001中“对危险源辨识,风险评价和风险控制的策划”,“法律法规及其他要求”,“职业健康安全管理方案”,“结构和职责”,“运行控制”,“绩效测量与监测”,“事故事件,不符合,纠正与预防措施”等7个要素审核过程的有效性。可为认可认证机构判断OHSMS审核的有效性提供一定的参考。     

On the use of probabilistic and deterministic methods in risk analysis

Risks to human beings arise from an inherent characteristic to make plans and try to make them happen, while external forces resist and tend to move our endeavours away from the plan. Any such “endeavour” is a complex ensemble of a bewildering variety of interacting elements which together form something “whole”, usually called a “system” (e.g. a chemical process plant, a nuclear power plant, the stock market, air traffic control). A system has a certain state in the present and subsequent states in the future. There are deterministic and probabilistic systems and corresponding approaches to analyse them, that is to make their current states apparent and predict their future behaviour. In this paper, it is shown in which ways both analyses appear in risk analysis and it is hypothesised that both approaches are modelling the same process, though probabilistic analysis may reveal more information since it explicitly incorporates uncertainty in the form of numbers (and “there is safety in numbers”). The overall objective of this paper is to make clear what the differences between the two approaches really are. Their respective main strengths and weaknesses are discussed. A more refined objective is to discuss the specific role of probabilities in risk analysis. Examples of both approaches are given from applications in the nuclear power and chemical process industries, and some of the main problems encountered thereby are identified. Further, the challenge to system analysis posed by “chaos theory” is discussed. Due to its non-linear dynamic character, the future behaviour of a “chaotic system” is difficult to predict over a long period of time because it depends on arbitrarily small and thus not observable variations in the current state. Such behaviour might have serious consequences for human operators involved in the control of such systems. The paper concludes that, although both approaches to risk analysis can provide adequate safety levels to systems if applied in a correct and non-biased way, probabilistic methods seem to be more cost-effective and the results easier to communicate to decision- and policy-makers.     

Safety Ⅱ学术思想的科学传播研究*

为全面了解Safety Ⅱ学术思想的传播情况,采集Web of Science数据库中284篇引用Safety Ⅱ学术著作的论文,采用科学计量和知识网络的方法,分析Safety Ⅱ学术思想的传播时间趋势、传播主体分布、传播领域与期刊以及传播的热点主题分布。研究结果表明:Safety Ⅱ学术思想在传播时间上呈线性增长趋势;核心传播区域为英格兰、美国、澳大利亚、挪威和意大利;核心传播机构为挪威斯塔万格大学、荷兰代尔夫特理工大学以及罗马第一大学;核心传播者为Saurin Tarcisio Abreu、Hollnagel Erik以及Patriarca Riccardo;Safety Ⅱ传播的核心领域为工业工程、运筹管理科学、人机工程学、应用心理学以及健康护理科学与服务等领域;Safety Ⅱ传播的主题为“韧性与功能共振”、“病患安全”、“事故与人的失误”、“安全与风险管理”、“社会技术系统与人的因素”以及“安全风险的评估”6大方向。研究结果对我国安全科学理论与实践的发展有重要作用。     

基于AHP-SLIM的航空器维修人误概率确定

人误是造成民用航空维修差错的主要因素。由于缺少实际的数据,对航空维修行业人为失误发生的规律进行研究是必要的,但是规律研究主要依赖于该领域专家的判断,很难确保一致性。为了克服这个困难得到更加准确的评估,本文将层次分析法同成功似然函数结合起来估计造成飞机/发动机/附件损坏的人误概率。该方法确定了航空器维修人员的安全态度、知识和技能、计划和监管、信息沟通等因素,对人误的影响程度以及飞机/发动机/附件损坏中常见人误的发生概率。计算结果表明,操作/试验时最容易发生飞机/发动机/附件损坏,并且提出加强组织和监管、严格按章办事等解决措施。     

Analysis of “high-dollar” value safety and health citations and orders for the US coal mines

This paper presents an analysis of a “high-dollar” value safety and health citations and orders for the US coal mines using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) data. Term “high-dollar” value relates to penalty of $10,000 and more per citation or order. The study was based on historical MSHA data for the period from 01/01/2009 to 12/31/2009. Data shows that there were 1161 “high-dollar” value citations and orders in 2009 with a total penalty of almost $31-million. The most cited standard was 75.400 – “Accumulation of combustible material” with a 259 “high-dollar” value citations and total penalty of almost $5.9-million. Among all US states, the West Virginia coal mines recorded the highest number of citations and the total penalty value. Results of this study can be used by coal mining industry to help in prioritizing resource allocations and determining control strategies.     

航海技术专业安全管理素质培养方案研究

比较分析了海运物流业的风险程度,指出航海技术专业是隐性的安全工程专业。针对海运物流业对高级船员的“安全管理素质”、“驾驶台安全素质”、“应急反应素质”新需求,指出需用高等工程教育模式替代传统的职业教育模式,采用国际上“回归工程”理念来培养安全管理素质。因而提出了由3个课群构成的安全管理课系,阐述“综合安全管理素质”课群的设计思想,重点给出关键课程《海运安全科学基础》的内容组织和教学要求。研究成果为造就具有自组织自适应能力的海运安全管理素质的高级船员奠定了课系基础和培养机制。     

电梯PAR安全信息流管理模型构建及应用*

为从安全信息视角分析电梯全生命周期过程中事故致因因素,并在实践中提升电梯安全管理水平,基于PAR事故致因模型开展电梯安全信息管理研究。以安全信息为主线,安全感知-安全分析-安全应答（PAR）安全行为链为关键点,建立电梯PAR安全信息流管理模型。基于电梯PAR安全信息流管理模型的逻辑架构建立电梯信息综合监管服务体系,将模型的信息服务形式具体化。并运用电梯PAR安全信息流管理模型对典型电梯事故进行分析。研究结果表明:电梯PAR安全信息流管理模型能够全面分析各层级失误模式,提升各主体协同治理能力。电梯信息综合监管服务体系可打破电梯领域信息“孤岛”现状,对智慧电梯建设具有重要理论指导意义。     

“互联网+”模式下的气瓶安全管理平台研发

针对当前气瓶安全管理过程中存在的信息协同效率低等问题,探讨了基于“互联网+”的气瓶全链条平台化安全管理模式,实现气瓶制造、充装、使用、检验、安全监管、社会监督等各环节协同联动,以及设备、单位、人员等安全管理要素协同;以该模式为基础,结合云服务理念,研发气瓶安全管理“互联网+”平台,面向气瓶安全管理产业链充装、使用、检验、监管各方用户,实现气瓶链条式安全管控,进一步提升气瓶安全管理的水平,实现气瓶安全效益。     

Safety compliance climate concerning risk assessment and preventive measures in EU legislation: A Finnish survey

The aim of the present study is to explore the process dynamics of the safety compliance climate and work relationships, including their antecedents and consequences. After investigating the many dimensions of safety compliance climate and of work relationships, the study concludes that a multi-component measure is needed to fully assess all of their dimensions. With respect to the impacting positively on safety compliance legislation, the present study found the following factors: “contribution measures”, “concrete preventive measures” and “risk assessment process”. For risk assessment factors on safety compliance the study identified “planning, guidelines, policy, management”, “prioritization of proactive measures”, “results in cooperation and information” and “active use of risks assessment document”. In a regression model for the workers, both risk assessment process and contribution measures had a statistically highly significant (p < 0.001) effect on concrete preventive measures. In the regression analysis of the employers risk assessment process had a statistically significant (p < 0.01) effect and contribution measures had a statistically highly significant (p < 0.001) effect on concrete preventive measures.