Impact of psychological risk factors on disaster rescue operations: the case of Italian volunteers

This paper reports on research into the characteristics of emergency rescue workers, with a focus on psychological distress. We present the results of a study of volunteers from the Italian national civil protection programme. A questionnaire was administered to 2,576 subjects from all over Italy. Most respondents were men, mostly unemployed, whose average level of education was higher than that among most Italian volunteers. Many were poorly endowed with basic skills, with large differences according to geography. Many expected to convert their volunteer activities into permanent jobs. Using this data, we employed a logistical regression model to analyse the risk of low, moderate and severe psychological distress symptoms, including anxiety and panic attacks, during rescue operations. The results indicate that some rescuers are particularly vulnerable to distress. The highest risk factors pertained to volunteers from southern Italy whose training is inadequate, who have little experience of emergency work and who play subordinate roles in small teams that lack psychological support services.     

引入火灾保险后消防投资经济性的评价模型

在西方发达国家,业主为减轻火灾发生后的实际损失,在火灾发生之前会主动采取火灾风险管理措施,而火灾保险是其中的重要部分,这也是我国今后火灾风险管理的发展方向之一. 通过购买火灾保险,业主将火灾损失的一部分或全部转移到保险公司,但业主需每年向保险公司交纳一定数额的保险费.购买火灾保险之后,消防投资经济性的评价模型会发生一些改变.本文基于经济性学的基本理论和方法,对这些新模型进行了较为全面的研究,为投资者做出科学合理的决策提供指导和帮助.     

基于仿真原理的地震应急志愿者规模研究

中国是个地震多发但应对能力不强的国家,汶川地震再次暴露了中国专业地震应急救援力量不足的弊端。我们应该借鉴发达国家的经验,构建应急志愿者队伍,以提高我国的地震应急能力。根据仿真原理结合人力资源规模的确定方法,设计了地震应急救援系统仿真模型,并利用该模型计算了高校志愿者队伍的人数。该研究不但有助于丰富志愿者管理理论,同时能有效利用社会资源,提升我国地震应急救援能力,因此具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

Refugee health care: Similar but different?

The present review sets out to identify differences between refugees and other more stable communities living in less developed countries: demographic, mortality, morbidity, nutritional and selected epidemiological data are discussed. Although generalizations are difficult because of the variability of refugees and their differing circumstances, the health problems and diseases do not appear to differ qualitatively, although they may be quantitatively more severe.
The areas of particular concern lie not so much with the problems but with approaches to their solutions: the need to respond rapidly and appropriately to emergencies, the importance of attending to the priorities of nutrition, shelter, sanitation and water; and the necessity of providing services which are sufficiently flexible and sensitive to the changing needs of the refugees as they move from the acute emergency to the long-term settlements.
The review highlights certain areas where insufficient information is currently available, notably mental illness and the long-term issues of health and development, and outlines the implications of the conclusions for policy makers, with particular reference to training and research.     

发展中国家灾害经济的特点、成因及对策

发展中国家人口众多，经济技术落后，酱稀缺，抗灾能力低，防灾意识不强，加多不合理经济活动对环境的过度干预以及发达国家转嫁环境灾害和社会危机，致使发展中国家产生灾害的潜在因素日益增加，灾害的成灾损失越来越严重，灾害对经济发展的影响与经济因素对灾害的影响都在日益加深，形成恶性循环。本文从经济学角度提出了防灾减灾就采取的主要对策。     

Planning basic health services in Nigeria

This article does not deal directly with disasters, but as it is recognised that natural disasters most commonly occur and are most damaging in third world countries which are often still in the process of developing their health services; and since clearly a well-functioning health service is a valuable resource in pre-disaster planning and post-disaster relief and recovery, it is thought relevant to publish this study of one local health network which appears to answer effectively the basic needs of a rural population, within the means of the community.     

基于证据权重法的呼伦贝尔地区人为草原火险空间预测

应用证据权重法结合GIS空间分析,研究了呼伦贝尔地区人为草原火险。利用证据权重法定量化地分析了与人类活动密切相关的5个因子(乡村人口密度、载畜密度、居民点分布、城镇分布、公路网)与草原火点空间分布的关系,并建立了呼伦贝尔草原火险预测模型,据此在ARCVIEW的WofE扩展模块下生成一幅草原火险预测专题图,并将研究区划分为高、中、低三类风险区。研究表明:(1)呼伦贝尔草原火灾火点的空间分布与人类活动关系密切,尤其是乡村人口密度、公路网与居民点分布这三个因子,权重分别为0.5191,0.1945,0.2864;(2)证据权重法可以客观定量地表现出草原火险与人类活动的关系,因而可为草原火灾风险管理提供决策支持。     

Determining the future policies for disaster management in the southwest pacific

There are still deficiencies in the delivery of disaster aid and the overall policies need further re-examination. This paper looks at the particular circumstances of the island nations of the Southwest Pacific. In their context, dependence on outside help for counter-disaster management is recognised, but in the light of the present economic, social, cultural and political characteristics of these countries, it is concluded that aid donors should shift the emphasis of their activities to the promotion of a greater self-help approach in the individual countries, as against the provision of emergency material aid from outside. The extent to which this policy could be adopted depends on the local resource base. Rather than relying mainly on emergency ad hoc aid delivery following each disaster, it is considered that donors would improve the disaster response through the previous provision of advice, training and funds. This would facilitate the growth and development of internal counter-disaster organizatons, and assist countries to make their own decisions on the timing and nature of the aid required. Such a policy could also meet concerns that arise about external interference.     

Implementation of a medical command and control team in Switzerland

In case of a major incident or disaster, the advance medical rescue command needs to manage several essential tasks simultaneously. These include the rapid deployment of ambulance, police, fire and evacuation services, and their coordinated activity, as well as triage and emergency medical care on site. The structure of such a medical rescue command is crucial for the successful outcome of medical evacuation at major incidents. However, little data has been published on the nature and structure of the command itself. This study presents a flexible approach to command structure, with two command heads: one emergency physician and one experienced paramedic. This approach is especially suitable for Switzerland, whose federal system allows for different structures in each canton. This article examines the development of these structures and their efficiency, adaptability and limitations with respect to major incident response in the French‐speaking part of the country.     

Civilians under fire: evacuation behaviour in north Israel during the Second Lebanon War

This paper seeks to understand evacuation behaviour in a case of spontaneous evacuation. During the Second Lebanon War of 2006, more than one‐third of residents in north Israel spontaneously evacuated—the remainder stayed in situ. Using a telephone survey of 665 respondents residing in north Israel, we were able to characterise the behaviour of evacuees and non‐evacuees. The main reasons cited for evacuating were fear of injury to self or family, the effect on children, inability to remain in a protective space, and family pressure. The main reasons cited for remaining at home were no suitable alternative, did not perceive a high level of danger, had to go to work, and there is no place like home. There were no significant differences with regard to most socio‐demographic characteristics of the population. These findings should aid emergency managers in preparing the population for a future emergency and in engaging in effective dialogue with the population during an emergency on the evacuation option.     

从人员疏散的角度研究公路隧道的横通道间距

隧道的横通道作为人员疏散的安全地带,其间距的设置在人员安全疏散中是至关重要的。以雪峰山隧道为工程实例,从人员安全疏散的观点出发,阐述了一种计算横通道间距的方法,并简述了方法的应用。首先根据特长隧道火灾特点,模拟分析特长隧道四种不同火灾场景下的典型自然疏散过程,并运用火灾模拟软件FDS4.0计算四种火灾场景在不同横通道间距情况下的危险时间,然后与相应的包含人员疏散行为特征的疏散时间相比较,得出该隧道最适宜的横通道间距为270m,并分析其经济性。其方法和结论可为特长隧道消防系统的设计、紧急疏散方案和引导指挥体系的建立提供理论依据。     

Completion of recommended WUI fire mitigation measures within urban households in Edmonton,Canada

The purpose of this study was to examine completion of recommended wildland—urban interface (WUI) fire mitigation measures by residents adjacent to the heavily vegetated North Saskatchewan river valley and ravine system in the City of Edmonton, Alberta. A mail survey was distributed to a random sample of households adjacent to this natural area. Almost all homeowners were found to be completing some recommended mitigation measures and in many cases were willing to complete most but not all of the measures that they had not yet completed, despite mixed motivations to act. Perceived responsibility for reducing risks, social bonds, beliefs that emergency services would protect homeowners' property in the event of a fire, and perceptions of the effectiveness of recommended mitigation measures, were not significantly related to completion of a higher average number of recommended mitigation measures. Importantly, most mitigation measures were completed for reasons other than WUI fire mitigation. The implications of these results and recommendations for emergency managers and communicators are discussed.     

城市火灾模拟分析与消防应急指挥系统的设计与实现

城市火灾对人类的危害极大,建立城市消防地理信息系统是减轻城市火灾的有效途径。剖析了传统火灾报警与消防调度模式存在的弊端,尝试提出城市火灾模拟分析与消防应急指挥的融合模式,并运用GIS技术设计和实现了城市火灾模拟分析与消防应急指挥系统。解决了系统实现过程中的一系列关键技术:基于两种方式的接警空间定位、复杂条件下大区域火灾蔓延动态模拟分析、火灾损失预测与评估及消防应急指挥决策模型等。     

Disaster resilience and population ageing: the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes in Japan

This paper provides a framework for evaluating the effects of population ageing on disaster resilience. In so doing, it focuses on the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes, two major disasters that affected Japan before the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. It analyses regional population recovery on the basis of pre‐disaster and post‐recovery demographic characteristics using defined transition patterns of population ageing. The evaluation framework demonstrates that various recovery measures make different contributions to disaster resilience for each transition pattern of population ageing. With reference to regional population ageing, the framework allows for a prediction of disaster resilience, facilitating place vulnerability assessments and potentially informing policy‐making strategies for Japan and other countries with ageing populations.     

Rural refugees in Africa: Past experience, future pointers

Rapid change In rural Africa raises new policy problems In dealing with mass influxes of rural refugees. Self-settlement in agriculture has become less feasible and is less acceptable now that Its disadvantages are better understood. Organized smallholder settlement can be a better solution where it is economically viable, refugees have freedom of movement, and staff are suitable. But growing land shortage means that Increasing proportions of refugees are being placed in camps. To offset this trend, more attention is suggested to programmes for groups of refugees, categorized by time of arrival, by ability to self-settle or to farm, and by skills and experience. Practically-oriented social science research can contribute to these and other approaches which will require imagination and ingenuity. Solutions to future rural refugee problems should be linked with programmes of social and economic development which will make easier the achievement of humanitarian objectives.     

模糊聚类分析在中国火灾危害分类中的应用

火灾现象具有随机性、模糊性,是个复杂的模糊系统行为。运用模糊聚类分析方法,借助于M ATLAB计算软件,对中国火灾的危害程度进行了分类。根据2000年中国火灾统计资料,把31个省市分为重灾区、较重灾区、一般灾区、轻灾区等4类,与传统的概率统计方法相比,本方法更符合客观实际。城市火灾分类是动态的,重灾区吸取教训,增强消防意识,增大消防投入,可减少火灾隐患;而轻灾区如不注意防范,也会增加火灾隐患。因此不论轻重灾区,均应时时增强防范意识,把火灾危害降至最低。     

Are rapid population estimates accurate? A field trial of two different assessment methods

Emergencies resulting in large-scale displacement often lead to populations resettling in areas where basic health services and sanitation are unavailable. To plan relief-related activities quickly, rapid population size estimates are needed. The currently recommended Quadrat method estimates total population by extrapolating the average population size living in square blocks of known area to the total site surface. An alternative approach, the T-Square, provides a population estimate based on analysis of the spatial distribution of housing units taken throughout a site. We field tested both methods and validated the results against a census in Esturro Bairro, Beira, Mozambique. Compared to the census (population: 9,479), the T-Square yielded a better population estimate (9,523) than the Quadrat method (7,681; 95% confidence interval: 6,160-9,201), but was more difficult for field survey teams to implement. Although applicable only to similar sites, several general conclusions can be drawn for emergency planning.     

基于虚拟现实的建筑火灾模拟系统

提出了将虚拟现实技术应用于建筑火灾模拟的方法,在交互式虚拟环境中实现了基于火灾数值模拟的火灾场景模拟。根据火灾场模拟软件FDS的计算结果,控制虚拟火灾场景中火焰和烟雾的蔓延,使得虚拟场景中火灾的发展接近实际火灾的情况。模拟系统中通过纹理贴图和粒子系统等技术实现了逼真的火灾场景可视化。还介绍了实现灭火作战模拟和训员疏散模拟的技术细节。在以上方法的基础上研制了建筑火灾模拟原型系统,该系统可应用于电子消防预案制作、灭火作战演练、人员疏散演练、建筑性能化防火设计与评估,以及灾害条件下人的疏散行为研究等各个方面。     

The increasing exposure of cities to the effects of volcanic eruptions: a global survey

Abstract

The most dynamic demographic process of the past 250 years has been the movement of people from rural areas to cities. For most of this period urbanisation has been concentrated in economically more developed parts of the world, but during the last 50 years the focus has shifted to economically less developed regions. Urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, has led to increasing global exposure to a variety of natural hazards, not the least of which are risks posed to large cities by volcanoes. In this paper we monitor these demographic changes and detail the various types of volcanic hazard to which cities are exposed. A major eruption affecting a city in a developing country could cause widespread loss of life and regional disruption. Effective response, however, might minimise casualties in a city within a developed nation affected by a major eruption, but the economic impact could have global consequences. We argue that global hazard exposure is often subtle and involves not only the size of a city and the types of volcanic product that may occur, but also the strategic position of the threatened city within the economy of a country and/or region and the fact that volcano-induced tsunami and other consequences of eruptions, such as climatic change, may affect cities far removed from a given eruption site. Mitigation measures informed by both specifc prediction (surveillance) and general prediction (hazard mapping) are providing the potential to reduce hazard exposure. The paper concludes with a consideration of ongoing research, in particular the emphasis currently being placed on conflating hazard analysis with studies of place, economy, society and culture.     

Brief description of the effects on health of the earthquake of 3rd March 1985 – Chile

Chile is one of the most seismically active countries in the world. Earthquakes are periodic phenomena that test the quality of construction, as well as the capacity of the population to adapt to sharp changes in socio-environ-mental conditions.
Experience in this regard has demonstrated the desirability of being prepared, at the institutional level and at the level of the general population, to carry out investigations and to begin measures to cope with these catastrophes, in order to reduce damage and the interruption of normal life to a minimum.
In this paper some general aspects of the social and health impacts of the earthquake of 3rd March 1985 are examined. The shock affected the central area of Chile which contains 61% of the total population.
The earthquake occurred at 19:50 hours on Sunday, 3rd March, and was of magnitude 7.8. Recorded personal losses included 180 dead and 2,575 injured, and around 200,000 damaged or destroyed dwellings. The destruction also affected the infrastructure of the public services, such as energy, road, telecommunications and water supply, giving rise to an emergency in the provision of assistance.
Special reference is made to the effects, on the health care infrastructure, drinking water supply and, less important, on the behavior of some communicable intestinal diseases that are highly endemic in the area under study.