基于改进型灰色神经网络组合模型的空气质量预测

基于空气质量数据不足及波动较大的情况,将灰色GM（1,1）模型与人工神经网络模型组合并改进,建立改进型灰色神经网络组合模型。利用天津市2001—2008年PM10、SO2和NO2年均值作为原始数据预测2009—2010年PM10、SO2和NO2的浓度以进行模型精度检验,最后利用该模型预测2011—2015年天津市空气质量状况。结果表明,与灰色GM（1,1）模型、传统灰色神经网络组合模型相比,所建立的改进型灰色神经网络组合模型相对模拟误差小,预测结果更为可靠,可以用于空气质量预测。     

基于分段线性表示k最近邻的水质预测方法

随着自动监测、网络通讯等技术的迅速发展,水质数据采集方式从原来的人工采集发展到现在的自动采集,技术上得到很大的进步,同时获得的水质数据也急剧增加。因此面对大量的水质数据,迫切需要一种能够处理大规模水质数据的预测方法。针对这一问题,基于k最近邻算法和分段线性表示算法,提出了分段线性表示k最近邻算法用于水质预测。为了验证所提出算法的有效性,利用该算法对2个水库进行水质浑浊度预测实验。实验结果表明,分段线性表示k最近邻算法处理大规模水质数据时可以有效减少计算量和运行时间,且预测效果令人满意。     

基于遗传神经网络模型的空气能见度预测

由于雾霾导致的空气能见度降低,给人们的出行带来很多不便。针对这一现象,构建基于遗传神经网络算法的空气能见度预测模型。将与空气能见度相关的7种气象因子和6种污染物浓度因子经过主成份分析后作为输入数据,输出8:00能见度和14:00能见度。该模型能够克服BP神经网络易陷入平坦区域和局部最优解的问题。以西安市2013-1-1—8-16的数据训练遗传神经网络,通过使用灰色模型获得预测时间段8-17—23的输入数据,可以得到这段时间能见度的预测值。通过与BP神经网络模型的比较,发现遗传神经网络预测模型在预测结果的相关性和绝对误差方面均优于BP神经网络模型,因此,可以更准确地预测空气能见度。     

多种神经网络在华北西部区域城市空气质量预测中的应用

据华北西部区域4个主要城市2003—2012年API日报数据和相应时段的地面气象要素数据,利用4种(BP、Elman、T-S模糊、小波)神经网络构建预测模型并预测相应城市大气环境质量。研究结果显示,4种模型在可靠性、预测精度方面均可满足应用要求可用于实际预测;具有动态反馈能力的Elman神经网络的预测精度以及泛用性要优于具静态馈能力的其他3种网络模型,说明动态神经网络更适用于城市大气环境质量预测。4种神经网络的决策权重大小及其排序虽各不相同,但体现出相似规律性,日最低气温、日均气压、前日API对输出数据的影响较大,说明逆温现象引发的持续性、区域性污染是该地区主要环境问题。     

基于径向基函数网络的溢油预测模型

为了提高溢油预测的准确性,建立和优化溢油预测模型,提出了基于径向基函数网络模型的溢油预测方法,实现溢油预测功能。径向基函数网络模型解决了模拟预测过程中样本库巨大、函数模型收敛速度慢的问题。通过选择有效的输入参数和样本数据,建立局部逼近网络;通过径向基函数训练样本数据,利用输出值与实际值之间的误差作为约束条件调整权重因子、径向基中心和宽度,加快函数模型的收敛速度。该模型模拟了溢油的漂移、扩散过程,达到预测的目的。利用该模型,建立了溢油预测模块,并针对一次溢油事故进行预测模拟,验证了该模型的可行性,能够为应急决策提供一定的支持。     

基于BP神经网络的多壁碳纳米管复合CdS-TiO_2光催化剂优化合成研究

基于CdS-TiO2/多壁碳纳米管(MWCNTs)光催化剂降解甲苯的正交实验数据,采用反向传播(BP)神经网络训练并建立了光催化剂合成条件设计的神经网络模型。以正交实验确定的4个主要影响因素作为输入层参数,以甲苯降解率作为输出层参数,将全部实验数据分为训练样本集和预测样本集。运行网络,系统误差为0.000 724,网络预测值与实验数据值相关系数达到0.989,说明该网络具有较好的训练精度及泛化能力。并利用训练好的神经网络预测得到CdS-TiO2/MWCNTs光催化剂的最佳合成条件:焙烧温度为460℃,MWCNTs复合量为1.5%(质量分数),活性组元摩尔比(TiO2/CdS)=80∶1,水加入量为12%(体积分数)。     

基于人工蜂群算法与BP神经网络的水质评价模型

针对BP网络水质评价模型的不足,引入人工蜂群(ABC)算法,将求解BP神经网络各层权值、阀值的过程转化为蜜蜂寻找最佳蜜源的过程,提出了一种新的结合人工蜂群算法的BP网络水质评价方法(ABC-BP)。并以2000—2006年渭河监测断面的10组实测数据作为测试样本对其水质进行了评价,实验结果表明该方法得到的水质评价结果准确,并具有很强的稳定性和鲁棒性。     

神经网络在次级河流回水区叶绿素a浓度预测中的应用

以长江次级河流之一的临江河为研究对象，探讨神经网络应用于次级河流回水区叶绿素a浓度短期预测的可行性。利用主成分分析法（PCA）选取对叶绿素a浓度影响较大的指标，在这些指标数据的基础上建立RBF神经网络模型。网络训练和测试的结果表明，模型模拟精度较高，说明RBF神经网络模型可以用于次级河流回水区叶绿素a浓度的短期预测。通过对临江河回水区叶绿素a影响因子的分析，表明控制水体中磷含量应是临江河回水区富营养化防治的重点。     

RBF与Elman神经网络在人工湿地复合基质去污效果预测中的应用

人工湿地的去污机理复杂、呈高度非线性,故利用神经网络技术构建模型预测其长期运行效果。通过构建人工湿地复合基质模拟槽系统进行为期4个月的实验,监测得到56组COD去除率数据样本,经Matlab小波去噪后分别利用RBF和Elman网络构建动态神经网络模型,预测该系统对生活污水中COD去除效果。结果表明,RBF和Elman神经网络预测值的均方根误差分别为0.0186和0.0163,精度较高,该系统后期的COD去除率在49.4%～59.0%之间。     

利用复介电常数和BPAT神经网络进行环境监测的可行性研究

土壤中的污染物成分复杂，其含量与复介电常数之间具有很强的非线性关系。以土壤样品复介电常数的实部、虚部分别作为输入，以其含水率、体密度和所含6种已知离子的浓度分别作为输出，建立BP人工神经网络。把吉泰兰地区的土壤样品数据分为训练样本集和检验样本集，网络训练后，其学习效果显示模型的性能很好，检验样本的预测结果也与实测值较好吻合，说明利用复介电常数和BP人工神经网络进行环境监测是一种好的方法。     

Evaluation of trichloroethene recovery processes in heterogeneous aquifer cells flushed with biodegradable surfactants

The ability of two biodegradable surfactants, polyoxyethylene (20) sorbitan monooleate (Tween 80) and sodium dihexyl sulfosuccinate (Aerosol MA), to recover a representative dense non-aqueous-phase liquid (DNAPL), trichloroethene (TCE), from heterogeneous porous media was evaluated through a combination of batch and aquifer cell experiments. An aqueous solution containing 3.3% Aerosol MA, 8% 2-propanol and 6 g/l CaCl(2) yielded a weight solubilization ratio (WSR) of 1.21 g TCE/g surfactant, with a corresponding liquid-liquid interfacial tension (IFT) of 0.19 dyn/cm. Flushing of aquifer cells containing a TCE-DNAPL source zone with approximately two pore volumes of the AMA formulation resulted in substantial (>30%) mobilization of TCE-DNAPL. However, a TCE mass recovery of 81% was achieved when the aqueous-phase flow rate was sufficient to displace the mobile TCE-DNAPL toward the effluent well. Aqueous solutions of Tween 80 exhibited a greater capacity to solubilize TCE (WSR=1.74 g TCE/g surfactant) and exerted markedly less reduction in IFT (10.4 dyn/cm). These data contradict an accepted empirical correlation used to estimate IFT values from solubilization capacity, and indicate a unique capacity of T80 to form concentrated TCE emulsions. Flushing of aquifer cells with less than 2.5 pore volumes of a 4% T80 solution achieved TCE mass recoveries ranging from 66 to 85%, with only slight TCE-DNAPL mobilization (<5%) occurring when the total trapping number exceeded 2 x 10(-5). These findings demonstrate the ability of Tween 80 and Aerosol MA solutions to efficiently recover TCE from a heterogeneous DNAPL source zone, and the utility of the total trapping number as a design parameter for a priori prediction of DNAPL mobilization and bank angle formation when flushing with low-IFT solutions. Given their potential to stimulate microbial reductive dechlorination at low concentrations, these surfactants are well-suited for remedial action plans that couple aggressive mass removal followed by enhanced bioremediation to treat chlorinated solvent source zones.     

The variation of street air levels of PAH and other mutagenic PAC in relation to regulations of traffic emissions and the impact of atmospheric processes

The occurrence of particle associated PAH and other mutagenic PAC was determined in 1996 in the street air of Copenhagen. In addition, particle extracts were tested for mutagenicity. The measurements were compared with previous measurements in 1992/1993. The levels had decreased in this period. The decrease was caused by an implementation of light diesel fuels for buses and the exchange of older petrol-driven passenger cars with catalystequipped new ones. About 65% of the reduction was caused by the application of the light diesel fuels. Under special conditions, chemical processes in the atmosphere produced many more mutagens than the direct emissions. The concentrations of S-PAC and N-PAC were 10 times lower than those of PAH, while the levels of oxy-PAH were in the same order of magnitude as those of PAH. Benzanthrone, an oxy-PAH, is proposed to be formed in the atmosphere in addition to direct emissions. Benzo(a)pyrene, often applied as an air quality criteria indicator, was photochemically degraded in the atmosphere. A strong increase in the mutagenic activities was observed to coincide with a depletion of benzo(a)pyrene.     

Chloroaromatic pollutants in mussels incubated in two finnish watercourses polluted by industry

Concentrations of different chlorinated compounds were measured in mussels incubated in two polluted watercourses, a river (the River Kymijoki) and a lake (Lake Vanaja) for four weeks in summer 1995. The sum concentrations of polychlorinated phenols (PCP) and biphenyls (PCB) were both about 1 μg/g lipid weight (lw) in Lake Vanaja mussels, while in the River Kymijoki mussels PCPs were non-detectable and PCBs were measured 120 ng/g lIw. The concentrations of toxic polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDD) and dibenzofuran (PCDF) congeners ranged between <17 and 370 pg/g Iw in Lake Vanaja mussels and between <38 and 11,000 pg/g lw in the River Kymijoki mussels. Polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (PCDE) were detected in the mussels incubated in the River Kymijoki (0.4–1.1 ng/g Iw), but not in those incubated in Lake Vanaja. Polychlorinated phenoxyanisoles (PCPA) were measured 33 ng/g lw and polychlorinated phenoxyphenols (PCPP) 300 ng/g lw in the mussels incubated in the River Kymijoki. PCPAs were also detected in reference samples, which were sediment and pike from the River Kymijoki and Baltic salmon, seal and white-tailed sea eagle.     

Teratological effects of pesticides in vertebrates: a review

Abstract

In the last decades, the use and misuse of pesticides in the agriculture have increased, having a severe impact on ecosystems and their fauna. Although the various effects of pesticides on biodiversity have been already documented in several studies, to our knowledge no consistent overview of the impact of pesticides in vertebrates, both terrestrial and aquatic, is available. In this review, we try to present a concise compilation of the teratogenic effects of pesticides on the different classes of vertebrates – mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish.     

Radionuclides and trace elements in fish collected upstream and downstream of Los Alamos national laboratory and the doses to humans from the consumption of muscle and bone

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine radionuclide and trace element concentrations in bottom‐feeding fish (catfish, carp, and suckers) collected from the confluences of some of the major canyons that cross Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) lands with the Rio Grande (RG) and the potential radiological doses from the ingestion of these fish. Samples of muscle and bone (and viscera in some cases) were analyzed for ³H, ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, ^totU, ²³⁸Pu, ^239,240Pu, and ²⁴¹Am and Ag, As, Ba, Be, Cr, Cd, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, and Tl. Most radionuclides, with the exception of ⁹⁰Sr, in the muscle plus bone portions of fish collected from LANL canyons/RG were not significantly (p<0.05) higher from fish collected upstream (San Ildefonso/background) of LANL. Strontium‐90 in fish muscle plus bone tissue significantly (p<0.05) increases in concentration starting from Los Alamos Canyon, the most upstream confluence (fish contained 3.4E‐02 pCi g^‐1 [126E‐02 Bq kg^‐1]), to Frijoles Canyon, the most downstream confluence (fish contained 14E‐02 pCi g^‐1 [518E‐02 Bq kg^‐1]). The differences in ⁹⁰Sr concentrations in fish collected downstream and upstream (background) of LANL, however, were very small. Based on the average concentrations (±2SD) of radionuclides in fish tissue from the four LANL confluences, the committed effective dose equivalent from the ingestion of 46 lb (21 kg) (maximum ingestion rate per person per year) of fish muscle plus bone, after the subtraction of background, was 0.1 ± 0.1 mrem y^‐1 (1.0 ± 1.0 μSv y^‐1), and was far below the International Commission on Radiological Protection (all pathway) permissible dose limit of 100 mrem y^‐1 (1000 μSv y^‐1). Of the trace elements that were found above the limits of detection (Ba, Cu, and Hg) in fish muscle collected from the confluences of canyons that cross LANL and the RG, none were in significantly higher (p<0.05) concentrations than in muscle of fish collected from background locations.     

Book review

The Pesticide Manual ‐ A World Compendium, 8th Edition, C.R. Worthing, Editor and S.B. Walker, Assistant Editor, British Crop Protection Council, BCPC Publications Sales, Bear Farm, Binfield, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 5QE, England. 1987, 1100 pp., UK £50; Overseas £56. ISBN 0–948404–01–9.     

Patterns of volatile metabolites and nonvolatile trichothecenes produced by isolates of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Stachybotrys,Fusarium, Trichoderma,Trichothecium</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Memnoniella</Emphasis>

We reported previously that trichodiene, a volatile trichothecene derivative, was produced by a Stachybotrys isolate, also known to produce highly cytotoxic, non-volatile, macrocyclic trichothecenes (satrotoxins). We investigated the relationship between the production of trichodiene and various non-volatile trichothecenes for several molds. Volatile metabolites were concentrated by adsorption on Tenax TA and analyzed by GC/MS, while non-volatile metabolites were separated by HPLC, derivatized and analyzed by GC/MS. Stachybotrys chartarum isolates producing macrocyclic trichothecenes secreted significantly larger amounts of trichodiene and other sesquiterpenes than isolates which only produced simple trichothecenes. The amounts of secreted trichodiene were relatively small in all cases. With the exception of Memnoniella, which excreted small amounts of sesquiterpenes, the other isolates produced varying amounts of sesquiterpenes, including trichodiene, as well as simple tricothecenes, no detectable trichodiene, but large amounts of griseofulvin derivatives. In Stachybotrys there is apparently a correlation between trichodiene and macrocyclic trichothecene production. In the remaining isolates, there was no simple relationship between trichodiene and non-volatile trichothecene synthesis. Trichodiene is produced in larger amounts by Stachybotrys isolates, which also produce satratoxins, but it will be difficult to utilize this metabolite to detect toxic isolates in buildings due to the relatively small amounts excreted.     

Knowledge transfer initiative between molecular biologists and environmental researchers and regulators

A Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) funded Knowledge Transfer (KT) workshop was held in the United Kingdom (UK) to identify the needs and opportunities in the application of molecular biology and ‘omics’ techniques to environmental monitoring and risk assessment. Attendees highlighted a lack of effective communication between end-users and researchers as well as difficulties with data interpretation as reasons behind the slow uptake of molecular biology and omics techniques. A number of promising areas in which new techniques could be implemented at a practical level in the very near future were identified, thereby raising the profile of these recent technologies and providing vital proof of concept work. Molecular taxonomy, bacterial source tracking and pre-screening of chemicals for potential toxicities were all viewed as areas in which omics and molecular techniques could have immediate value, with the aim of reducing cost, increasing efficiency and providing more comprehensive data of improved quality.     

The chemical stability of formulations of some hydrolyzable insecticides in aqueous mixtures with hydrolysis catalysts

Abstract

The active ingredients in commercial formulations of malathion, oxamyl, carbaryl, diazinon, and chlorpyrifos diluted to “spray tank”; concentrations with buffered distilled or natural water of pH 4–9 were stable for at least 24 hr. Formulations of trichlorfon were not stable at pH 7 or above but disappearance rates were slower than for the pure chemical in homogeneous solution. Cupric ion was observed to be an effective catalyst for the hydrolysis of a variety of pure organophosphorus insecticides but did not catalyze hydrolysis of the active ingredients of the formulations examined. Increasing the dilution of the formulation increased the susceptibility of malathion, oxamyl, and carbaryl to hydrolysis.     

Organochlorine compounds in a three-step terrestrial food chain

The concentrations of 15 organochlorine chemicals (PCBs and pesticides) were studied in a Central European oak wood food chain system: Great tit (Parus major), caterpillars (Tortrix viridana, Operophtera brumata, Erannis defoliaria), and oak-leaves (Quercus robur). Juvenile tits receive organochlorines from the mother via egg transfer and, eventually to a greater extent, from the caterpillar food source during nestling period. The concentrations of PCB 153 (2,2′,4,4′,5,5′-hexachlorobiphenyl, the most abundant in this study) was found in leaf material at ca. 1 ng/g, in caterpillars 10 ng/g, and in bird eggs 170 ng/g on an average and on a dry mass basis.