Economic potential of biomass gasification projects under clean development mechanism in India

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol provides Annex-I (industrialized) countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in non-Annex-I (developing) countries to achieve a reduction in CO₂ emissions at lowest cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country. Biomass gasification projects could be of interest under the CDM because they directly displace greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to sustainable rural development. However, there is only one biomass gasifier project registered under the CDM so far. In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the economic potential of biomass gasifier-based projects under CDM in India. The preliminary estimates based on this study indicate that there is a vast theoretical potential of CO₂ mitigation by the use of biomass gasification projects in India.The results indicate that in India around 74 million tonne agricultural residues as a biomass feedstock can be used for energy applications on an annual basis. In terms of the plant capacity the potential of biomass gasification projects could reach 31 GW that can generate more than 67 TWh electricity annually. The annual CER potential of biomass gasification projects in India could theoretically reach 58 million tonnes. Under more realistic assumptions about diffusion of biomass gasification projects based on past experiences with the government-run programmes, annual CER volumes by 2012 could reach 0.4–1.0 million and 1.0–3.0 million by 2020. The projections based on the past diffusion trend indicate that in India, even with highly favorable assumptions, the dissemination of biomass gasification projects is not likely to reach its maximum estimated potential in another 50 years. CDM could help to achieve the maximum utilization potential more rapidly as compared to the current diffusion trend if supportive policies are introduced.     

Reforming the CDM for sustainable development: lessons learned and policy futures

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has successfully demonstrated that market-based mechanisms can achieve some cost effective emissions reductions in developing countries. However the distribution of CDM projects has been extremely uneven across countries and regions, and a few technologies and sectors have dominated the early stages of CDM experience. This has caused some to question whether the CDM has fallen short of its potential in contributing to sustainable development. We review the broad patterns of CDM project approvals and evaluate 10 CDM projects according to their sustainability benefits. The difficulty of defining “sustainable development” and the process of defining criteria by individual non-Annex 1 governments has meant that sustainable development concerns have been marginalized in some countries. Given these observed limitations, we present possible CDM policy futures, focusing on the main proposals for a post-2012 climate regime. Five options for enhancing the sustainable development benefits in the CDM are discussed, including proactive approaches to favour eligibility of emission reduction projects which ensure such co-benefits.     

How China’s current energy pricing mechanisms will impact its marginal carbon abatement costs?

Economic and social costs and benefits are critical factors affecting greenhouse gas abatement activities. Recognizing that energy prices are one of the most important factors influencing abatement costs, this study improved the basic China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis (CEEPA) model by introducing a current energy pricing mechanism for China. The improved model was applied to generate marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for China including the current energy pricing mechanism and to analyze MACs for the whole country and main abatement sectors in China under different energy pricing mechanisms. The results show that China MACs are sensitive to pricing mechanisms for electricity and refined oil. Ignoring the current regulation of these prices will lead to MAC underestimation, and price liberalization of these two energy sources could lead to a decrease in China MACs. Under a 50 % emission reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is ignored, the China MAC is underestimated by almost 16 %. Energy pricing reforms will lead to variations in sectoral abatement costs and overall abatement potential, and these impacts are projected to be large in the electricity sector. Under a 50 % reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is liberalized, MAC for the electricity sector nearly will decrease 50 %.     

中国石化和化工行业二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

石化和化工行业是我国经济发展的支柱性产业,但同时也是高耗能、高排放行业。平衡石化和化工行业发展与碳达峰、碳中和之间的关系,制定科学、合理的减排措施,是实现石化和化工行业低碳绿色发展的重要措施。为此,研究围绕石化和化工重点行业,利用专家型和基于模型的边际成本曲线对我国石化和化工行业的关键减排技术及减排成本进行分析。研究结果显示,我国石化和化工行业平均减排成本为298元/tCO₂,2035年累积碳减排量为4.4亿t,约占行业碳排放总量的30%。与节能减排措施相比,能源替代手段具有较高的减排成本,但也同时具有较高的减排潜力。2035年,能源替代的减排潜力占到总减排潜力的62%。未来,应着力推动传统煤化工行业能源利用向可再生、清洁能源的转变,助推石化和化工行业碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现。     

The elephant in the room – A comparative study of uncertainties in carbon offsets

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is a flexible mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, which makes it possible for developed countries to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases through investing in climate change mitigation projects in developing countries. When the mitigation benefit of a CDM project is quantified, measurable uncertainties arise that can be minimised using established statistical methods. In addition, some unmeasurable uncertainties arise, such as the rebound effect of demand-side energy efficiency projects. Many project types related to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) have been excluded from the CDM in part because of the high degree of statistical uncertainty in measurements of the carbon sink and risk of non-permanence. However, recent discussions within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have opened up for the possibility of including more LULUCF activities in the future. In the light of this discussion, we highlight different aspects of uncertainties in LULUCF projects (e.g. the risk of non-permanence and the size of the carbon sink) in relation to other CDM project categories such as renewables and demand-side energy efficiency. We quantify the uncertainties, compare the magnitudes of the uncertainties in different project categories and conclude that uncertainties could be just as significant in CDM project categories such as renewables as in LULUCF projects. The CDM is a useful way of including and engaging developing countries in climate change mitigation and could be a good source of financial support for LULUCF mitigation activities. Given their enormous mitigation potential, we argue that additional LULUCF activities should be included in the CDM and other future climate policy instruments. Furthermore, we note that Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are currently being submitted to the UNFCCC by developing countries. Unfortunately, the under-representation of LULUCF in comparison to its potential is evident in the NAMAs submitted so far, just as it has been in the CDM. Capacity building under the CDM may influence NAMAs and there is a risk of transferring the view on uncertainties to NAMAs.     

中国水泥行业二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

为降低水泥行业碳减排成本,确定最优碳减排技术路径,研究基于经济-能源模型,核算中国水泥行业最新碳减排技术的边际减排成本,使用情景分析方法,研究了与未实施减排技术相比,2020年17项技术的碳减排潜力,并将其作为基准情景,和2025,2030,2035年3个未来情景的碳减排潜力作比较,从而得出不同情景下的边际减排成本曲线。结果表明:1）2020年我国水泥行业17项减排技术的平均减排成本为124元/tCO₂,2020年实现总减排量3043万t,总减排成本为10.3亿元;在保持技术水平和排放水平不变的情况下,2035年17项减排技术可实现总减排量21307万t,总减排成本为103.4亿元。2）在各项减排技术中,集成模块化窑衬节能技术与水泥熟料烧成系统优化技术,具有较高减排潜力和较低减排成本,适合广泛推广;CO₂捕集利用与封存（CCUS）技术虽具有较高减排成本,但是未来减排潜力较大,应给予重视。3）技术普及率与熟料产量是决定减排潜力的重要因素,因此未来水泥行业应注重节能减排政策技术推广与产业结构调整,可进一步实现减排目标。     

Project-Based Emissions Trading: The Impact of Institutional Arrangements on Cost-Effectiveness

In this paper we demonstrate that the institutionalarrangement (or: design) of Joint Implementation (JI) and the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM) has a decisive impact on theircost-effectiveness. We illustrate our arguments by statistically analyzing thecosts from 94 Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilot phase projects aswell as by adjusting these data on the basis of simple mathematicalformulas. These calculations explicitly take into account the institutionaldifferences between JI (sinks, no banking) and the CDM (banking, no sinks)under the Kyoto Protocol and also show the possible effects on credit costsof alternative design options. However, our numerical illustrations shouldbe viewed with caution, because AIJ is only to a limited extentrepresentative of potential future JI and CDM projects and because creditcosts are not credit prices. Some of the main figures found in this study are:an average cost figure per unit of emission reduction for AIJ projects of 46dollar per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent ($/Mg CO₂-eq), anaverage potential JI credit cost figure which is lowered to 37$/Mg CO₂-eq by introducing banking and an average of 6$/Mg CO₂-eq per credit for potential low-cost CDM projects whichincludes sinks. However, at CoP6 in November 2000 in The Hague (TheNetherlands), the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change(FCCC) did not (yet) reach consensus on the institutional details of theproject-based mechanisms, such as the possible arrangement of early JIaction or the inclusion of sinks under the CDM.     

Sustainable energy investments: contributions of the Global Environment Facility

Addressing energy, economic and environment security is a pressing challenge for nations worldwide. Global energy demand is projected to increase by 45% during the next 20 years, with the fastest growth in developing and transition countries. Over the past two decades, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has invested in a portfolio of sustainable energy projects with an emphasis on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and urban transport. These projects address many different national priorities including infrastructure, technologies, policies, best practices, institutions, and capacity building. Since 1991, more than US2,735 billion has been invested in energy sector projects with an additional US2,735 billion has been invested in energy sector projects with an additional US17.118 billion in co-financing from governments and the private sector. US1,186 billion, together with US1,186 billion, together with US7,092 billion in co-finance, has been invested in energy efficiency projects that deploy new technologies, develop institutional and human capacity, disseminate best practices, and build public awareness and understanding. GEF renewable energy investments of US1,298 billion, with co-financing of US1,298 billion, with co-financing of US7,555 billion, have advanced demonstration and deployment of solar thermal heating, solar thermal power, photovoltaics, wind power, geothermal energy, small hydropower, biomass, and combined technologies and best practices across 5 continents. The GEF has invested US251 million (with US251 million (with US2,471 billion in co-finance) in urban transport projects that address transport strategies, infrastructure, and mobility technology solutions. These energy efficiency, renewable energy and urban transport projects contributed to the direct reduction of about 1.7 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions. Other tangible environmental benefits also flowed from these GEF investments. Case studies of representative projects are presented to illustrate lessons learned from the energy efficiency, renewable, energy, and urban transport investments. Experiences from GEF investments can inform development and implementation of future sustainable energy investments.     

The role of uncertainty in future costs of key CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> abatement technologies: a sensitivity analysis with a global computable general equilibrium model

Deep emission cuts rely on the use of low carbon technologies like renewable energy or carbon capture and storage. There is considerable uncertainty about their future costs. We carry out a sensitivity analysis based on Gauss Quadrature for cost parameters describing these technologies in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty on total and marginal mitigation costs as well as composition changes in the energy system. Globally, effects in total cost often average out, but different regions are affected quite differently from the underlying uncertainty in costs for key abatement technologies. Regions can be either affected because they are well suited to deploy a technology for geophysical reasons or because of repercussions through international energy markets. The absolute impact of uncertainty on consumption increases over the time horizon and with the ambition of emission reductions. Uncertainty in abatement costs relative to expected abatement costs are however larger under a moderate ambition climate policy scenario because in this case the marginal abatement occurs in the electricity sector where the cost uncertainty is implemented. Under more ambitious climate policy in line with the two degree target, the electricity sector is always decarbonized by 2050, hence uncertainty has less effect on the electricity mix. The findings illustrate the need for regional results as global averages can hide distributional consequences on technological uncertainty.     

The impact of the Clean Development Mechanism on developing countries’ commitment to mitigate climate change and its implications for the future

The objective of this paper is to examine the mitigation of climate change using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the perspective of developing countries. The effects of the CDM on developing countries’ efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) pledged under the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France) are investigated. Data analysis reveals that the intensive hosting of CDM projects and the resultant higher marginal abatement costs led to fewer efforts by developing countries to mitigate climate change. A theoretical model from the literature of “low-hanging fruits” is applied to determine if rising prices of the CDM can be expected in the future. The results indicate that the benefits for developing countries must increase so as to keep the CDM attractive for them in an environment where they also have reduction commitments. To further ensure the effectiveness of the CDM under the Paris Agreement, policy should ensure that developing countries actually charge higher prices and, at the same time, contribute adequately to the global goal of GHG reductions. To this end, developing countries should be permitted to demand benefits that lie outside the current scope of the CDM, and non-compliance with their climate targets should also be sanctioned. In addition, fostering sustainable development should become more attractive for developed countries without the CDM, e.g., through sustainability labels, so as to reduce the trade-off for developing countries between the benefits of the CDM and compliance with their commitments to mitigate climate change.

     

清洁发展机制对我国节能减排的作用

清洁发展机制（CDM）是《京都议定书》发达国家和发展中国家就减排温室气体进行交易的合作机制。我国“十一五”规划《纲要》提出了节能减排的目标,而我国还是一个发展中国家,要实现节能减排面临很多的困难。CDM项目大部分是与提高能效和开发利用新能源直接有关,因此,CDM能为此提供一定的推动力,能够促进我国的节能减排。文章分析了当前我国节能减排面临的困难,探讨了CDM在我国节能减排所起的作用,提出我国对积极开发CDM项目应采取的相应对策。     

Can strategic technology development improve climate cooperation? A game-theoretic analysis

Clean technology has figured prominently in recent debates on international climate policy. This article offers a game-theoretic investigation of the possibility and effectiveness of strategic technology development: environmental leaders setting policies that reduce the global cost of clean technology. The game-theoretic model combines technology development and adoption with pollution abatement, and it allows technology costs to differ across countries. The key theoretical findings are as follows. First, free riding is an obstacle to technology development in two ways: countries fail to fully internalize the beneficial effect of technology development on (i) global pollution abatement and (ii) the reduced cost of technology adoption in outsider countries. Second, strategic technology development can be effective when (i) a key group of frontrunner countries prefers to invest in research and development and (ii) many other countries are willing to adopt the new technology. The findings suggest that strategic technology deployment by a group of frontrunners can enable more effective climate cooperation in the future.     

中国钢铁行业CO2减排技术及成本研究

钢铁行业是我国主要的能源消费及CO₂排放行业,推动钢铁行业低碳绿色发展已成为实现我国碳达峰、碳中和的重要环节。为此,研究围绕能源结构调整、工艺结构优化、节能减排技术推广和CCUS技术应用4方面,通过设置基础情景、稳定发展情景和强化减排情景3类情景,利用边际减排成本曲线对我国钢铁行业34项减排技术的减排成本和减排潜力进行分析。结果表明:在稳定发展情景下,我国钢铁行业平均减排成本为433元/tCO₂,所有技术的总减排成本为2100亿元,总减排潜力为4.9亿t。在各项减排技术中,废铁-电弧炉炼钢具有较高的减排经济效益,其以较低的单位减排成本贡献了钢铁行业近50%的碳减排量。未来,我国应加快推进长流程炼钢向短流程炼钢的发展,推动钢铁行业生产工艺的结构性调整。     

上海开发风电CDM项目的机遇分析

《京都议定书》的正式生效，促进了世界清洁发展机制（cDM）项目的迅速开发。由于上海经济发展迅速，能源消耗较大，有潜力进行CDM项目开发。上海电力是上海能耗较大的行业之一，应该积极进行CDM项目研究。文章分析了国家电力行业开发CDM的主导方向，根据已有方法学的选择原则。上海电力行业首选发展风电CDM项目。探讨了上海发展风力发电项目的潜力和可行性。以辉腾锡勒风电场CDM项目为例，介绍了我国风电CDM项目注册成功的经验。     

GHG emission reductions and costs to achieve Kyoto target

Emission projection and marginal abatement cost curves (MACs) are the central components of any assessment of future carbonmarket, such as CDM (clean development mechanism) potentials, carbon quota price etc. However, they are products of very complex,dynamic systems driven by forces like population growth, economic development, resource endowments, technology progress and so on. The modeling approaches for emission projection and MACs evaluation were summarized, and some major models and their results were compared.Accordingly, reduction and cost requirements to achieve the Kyoto target were estimated. It is concluded that Annex I Parties‘ total reduction requirements range from 503--1304 MtC with USA participation and decrease significantly to 140--612 MtC after USA‘ s withdrawal. Total costs vary from 21--77 BUSD with USA and from 5--36 BUSD without USA if only domestic reduction actions are taken. The costs would sharply reduce while considering the three flexible mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol with domestic actions‘ share in the all mitigation strategies drons to only 0--16%.     

中国道路交通部门减排技术及成本研究

道路交通作为交通部门碳排放的重要来源,将在实现"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的过程中承担重任。碳减排技术成本的研究有利于平衡道路交通机动化发展和"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的实现,是实现道路交通可持续发展的重要措施。为此,基于乘用车、商用客车、轻型商用货车和重型商用货车等车型,结合发动机技术、变速器技术、辅助系统技术和整车技术和新能源车应用等16种关键节能减排技术的减排潜力和成本,建立了2020-2035年我国道路交通碳排放的边际减排成本（MAC）曲线,评估了通过推广车辆节能技术和新能源车等措施来实现减排目标的累积成本。主要得到以下结论:1）相同的车辆节能减排技术,应用在重型商用货车的单位减排成本远小于其他车型,新能源车在乘用车的应用具有很大的减排潜力,但是与其他车型相比并不具有成本优势。2）燃料电池新能源车的单位减排成本远高于纯电动和插电混合动力新能源车,未来需降低燃料电池的生产成本以及氢气的制备、储存和运输成本。3）2020-2035年的减排总成本曲线显示总减排成本先增加后下降的趋势,这表明随着节能减排技术的合理推广,该部门减排阻力在不断下降。     

能源供应安全视角下中印生物质能源利用的比较

中国和印度是世界上两个人口最多的国家,中印两国作为世界上两个能源消费大国,如何满足众多人口和经济快速增长对能源的需求,以及提供安全的能源供应是中国和印度都在考虑并试图解决的紧迫问题,分析印度的生物能源利用政策对我国有重要的现实意义和参考价值。我国在1993年成为石油净进口国,1994年我国进口的原油仅为290×104t,进口依赖度为1.9%。到2009年我国石油净进口量为21 888.5×104t,进口原油的依赖度上升到了52.5%。我国日益增加的对国际石油市场的依赖对我国能源安全供应构成了极大的风险和挑战。我国在"十一五"期间,在生物质能源的利用上取得了很大的成绩。但还存在一些问题,主要问题是原料来源和成本不稳定、缺乏统筹规划、发电上网制度不完善、相关政策配套措施和实施细则不完善等因素在一定程度上影响了生物质能产业的发展。印度政府积极支持的生物质利用技术,包括利用清洁发展机制大量开发的生物质能CDM项目,这类项目大约占印度全部注册CDM项目的三分之一左右。印度从能源多元化供应的角度和扶持乡村可持续发展的角度上开发利用生物质能项目的实践是值得我国借鉴的。     

清洁发展机制框架下贵阳污水热能发展研究

清洁发展机制(CDM)是《京都议定书》确定的三机制之一,充分有效的利用这一机制,对贵阳的可持续发展提出建议。针对污水热能的应用现状,结合贵阳污水厂的处理量,确定了贵阳可利用的污水总量,通过与传统的锅炉、空气源热泵供冷(热)方式比较,得出使用污水源热泵系统潜在的温室气体消减量分别为1484 t/d、96.5 t/d、33.5 t/d。如进一步完善关于污水方面的CDM方法论,污水热能应用在这一领域将会有很大的空间。     

基于公平与效率双重视角的中国农业碳减排潜力分析

科学估算减排潜力是实施减排责任分摊的基础。论文将环境因素纳入到经济生产体系,构建含有期望产出与非期望产出的农业经济核算框架,借助方向距离函数方法,对2000-2011 年中国31 个省(市、区)的农业碳边际减排成本进行估算。在此基础上,利用人均农业碳排放、人均农业生产总值、农业碳排放强度与农业碳排放影子价格4 个指标,构建农业碳减排潜力指数,基于公平与效率双重视角,对各省区农业碳减排潜力水平进行评估与分析。结果显示:① 农业减排成本地区差异较大。其中,海南、福建、山东、辽宁、广东、北京、天津等省区减排成本较高,其年均农业碳排放影子价格居于全国前列,最高值达2.542×10⁸元/10⁴ t;而西藏、青海两地农业碳排放影子价格最低,分别为0.105×10⁸元/10⁴ t 和0.542×10⁸元/10⁴ t,农业减排成本较低。② 基于农业碳减排的公平性与效率性差异,将中国大陆31 个省级行政区域划分为四大类:西藏等1 省2 区属于“高效较公平”型地区;甘肃1 省1 区属于“高效欠公平”型地区;辽宁等8省2 区属于“低效较公平”型地区;北京等12 省4 市属于“低效欠公平”型地区。③ 西藏、海南、青海、内蒙古四地农业碳减排潜力指数在三种情景下均排名前四,北京、黑龙江、山西三地均排名最后。④ 决策者对于公平原则与效率原则的不同偏好会导致各省区减排责任分摊机制不同。     

基于GD_CGE模型的广东省碳排放权交易政策评估

为了评估广东省碳排放权交易制度设计对控制二氧化碳排放及经济发展可能发挥的作用,本文建立GD_CGE模型研究了在碳强度约束目标下碳交易政策的实施效果.首先分析了无减排约束和有减排约束情景下广东宏观经济(GDP)、能源消费总量和碳排放总量的发展趋势;进一步扩展减排约束情景,考察了在全省碳强度减排目标约束下,把电力、水泥、石化、钢铁、造纸、纺织六大部门纳入碳交易体系,并分别按照历史法和潜力法确定行业碳排放约束上限时,实施碳交易政策对宏观经济和能源消费量的影响,模拟了碳市场的交易情况和碳价格.结果表明:在碳强度目标控制下,实施碳交易政策可显著降低部门的减排成本,减小控制碳排放可能对全省GDP的影响,起到了促进广东省低成本节能减排的作用.