A Possible Way Forward on Climate Change

Although some have raisedsome valid points regarding scientificuncertainties and economic costs, a numberof arguments can be made in favor ofmultilateral cooperation to address globalclimate change. The approach presentedattempts to respond to some of the concernsraised and problems encountered in theinternational negotiation process. Thisalternative to the current approachcontained in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol wouldinvolve negotiating a package ofmulti-component commitments by each countrybased on national circumstances andnegotiated from the bottom up, as in amultilateral trade agreement.     

Forgotten carbon: indirect CO2 in greenhouse gas emission inventories

National governments that are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to submit greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories accounting for the emissions and removals occurring within their geographic territories. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides inventory methodology guidance to the Parties of the UNFCCC. This methodology guidance, and national inventories based on it, omits carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmospheric oxidation of methane, carbon monoxide, and non-methane volatile organic compounds emissions that result from several source categories. The inclusion of this category of “indirect” CO₂ in GHG inventories increases global anthropogenic emissions (excluding land use and forestry) between 0.5 and 0.7%. However, the effect of inclusion on aggregate UNFCCC Annex I Party GHG emissions would be to reduce the growth of total emissions, from 1990 to 2004, by 0.2% points. The effect on the GHG emissions and emission trends of individual countries varies. The paper includes a methodology for calculating these emissions and discusses uncertainties. Indirect CO₂ is equally relevant for GHG inventories at other scales, such as global, regional, organizational, and facility. Similarly, project-based methodologies, such as those used under the Clean Development Mechanism, may need revising to account for indirect CO₂.     

Challenges of connecting international science and local level sustainability efforts: the case of the Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia

The Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a multi-year Brazil-led international environmental science experiment funded by the U.S. National Aeronautics Space Administration, the European Union and Brazil. It is intended to inform decision making under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as well as Brazilian national environmental decision-making related to the Amazon region. Focused on the Amazon region, and primarily on the Brazilian Amazon, the LBA is a case study in issues that can arise when doing globally oriented research in a less developed country setting and a test of assumptions that such research simultaneously benefits global and local levels. This article offers a qualitative evaluation of the extent to which the LBA has achieved its goals and identifies structural obstacles within science that must be overcome to improve the fit between international science programs and efforts to nurture more sustainable use of natural resources in a less developed country.     

Earth observations for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in developing countries

In response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process investigating the technical issues surrounding the ability to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation in developing countries, this paper reviews technical capabilities for monitoring deforestation and estimating emissions. Implementation of policies to reduce emissions from deforestation require effective deforestation monitoring systems that are reproducible, provide consistent results, meet standards for mapping accuracy, and can be implemented at the national level. Remotely sensed data supported by ground observations are key to effective monitoring. Capacity in developing countries for deforestation monitoring is well-advanced in a few countries and is a feasible goal in most others. Data sources exist to determine base periods in the 1990s as historical reference points. Forest degradation (e.g. from high impact logging and fragmentation) also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions but it is more technically challenging to measure than deforestation. Data on carbon stocks, which are needed to estimate emissions, cannot currently be observed directly over large areas with remote sensing. Guidelines for carbon accounting from deforestation exist and are available in approved Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and can be applied at national scales in the absence of forest inventory or other data. Key constraints for implementing programs to monitor greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation are international commitment of resources to increase capacity, coordination of observations to ensure pan-tropical coverage, access to free or low-cost data, and standard and consensual protocols for data interpretation and analysis.     

The Multiple Benchmark System Application to Indonesia,Russia and Panama

Joint Implementation (JI) and theClean Development Mechanism (CDM) have beenestablished under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol asproject-based instruments to mitigategreenhouse gases of the industrialisedcountries to the levels imposed by theirKyoto commitments. An outstanding issueassociated with the implementation of thesetwo flexibility mechanisms concerns thechoice of appropriate baseline forcalculating the emission reductions. Thispaper applies a computerised tool thatconstructs and compares different types ofstandardised baselines for projects inIndonesia, Panama and the RussianFederation. It evaluates the effects of theselection of different baselines to theenvironmental integrity of the two Kyotomechanisms.     

Perceptions of the effectiveness of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in advancing national action on climate change

This paper aims to characterise the ways in which the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is trickling down to affect national level action on climate change. State and non-state actors were interviewed at the 8th UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP8) during October and November 2002. The interviews revealed that, among interviewees, climate change was already perceived to be, or was becoming a priority issue. In a number of countries substantial legislation is already in place to facilitate climate change preparedness (both adaptation and mitigation), although respondents suggest that in the majority of cases these changes are not being developed in response to the UNFCCC, but to other drivers. While all respondents saw change occurring at the national level, mostly through planning and research, few saw climate change response actions at the local level. Respondents agreed that climate risks must be managed through various mechanisms, from finding ways to participate in the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms to managing the impacts of foreign direct investments. The majority of respondents focussed on in-country actions such as identifying the most vulnerable groups, but few identified the need for greater global cooperation.To conclude, the Convention plays a role in shaping the discourse of climate change and in generating national level responses. These responses are played out differently according to the geographic, environmental, economic, social and cultural conditions of each country. The Convention is clearly important, but perhaps it is not adequate to inspire national action to resolve the problems of climate change. There is scope for many additional initiatives, through collaboration, trade or aid, and through bilateral agreements.     

CDM in the Kyoto Negotiations:

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has its origins in the decade of UNFCCC negotiations. ‘Joint implementation’ and ‘activities implemented jointly pilot’ opened the door for the project-based mechanisms between developed and developing countries. The US proposal of the Joint Implementation in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations was almost identical with CDM approved in Kyoto; however, a detour around the Clean Development Fund (CDF) concept raised by Brazil in the negotiations catalyzed the mutual understanding on the win-win nature of the concept of joint implementation.CDM has been played an important role to bridge the developed and developing countries in its development process initiated as the joint implementation in the UNFCCC, and can lead to the cooperative future in the implementation stage starting from the year 2003, including the development of future commitments beyond 2013. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Sharing developed countries’ post-2012 greenhouse gas emission reductions based on comparable efforts

The Bali Action Plan as adopted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2007, states that Annex I (developed) countries should reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, based on comparable efforts. Within this context, we have explored various comparable effort approaches (for example, equal marginal abatement costs for all countries) for reducing emissions by the year 2020 for individual countries and regions. In all calculations, the total reduction for Annex I countries as a group is assumed to be 30% below 1990 levels. In the analysis, we compare the reduction targets as calculated from the different approaches with the emission reductions as pledged by these countries as part of the Copenhagen Accord, as drafted under the UNFCCC in 2009. Our analysis indicates that the different elements in these calculations may cause a diversity in outcomes and that, therefore, individual countries may favour certain elements over others. These elements include (a) the choice of the approach itself (the same approach may produce very different outcomes for countries with diverging national circumstances, such as Canada and Russia); (b) the reference year (such as 1990 or 2006 emissions, is very important for countries with an increase in emissions since 1990 (e.g. the United States, Canada) or for those that have lower emission levels (e.g. Russia, the Ukraine)); and (c) rules on land use (these are important for countries with large forest areas). It should be noted that the stringency of the individual countries’ reductions as pledged, differs substantially from the stringency of the reduction targets calculated from the effort-sharing approaches. The current pledges by both the European Union and the United States, are lower than the reductions that would be obtained in the effort-sharing approaches for a 30% overall reduction in Annex I countries.     

碳中和——中国发展转型的机遇与挑战

碳中和是《巴黎协定》提出的到21世纪末在全球范围内实现人为活动排放的温室气体排放总量与大自然吸收总量相平衡,这是《联合国气候变化框架公约》应对气候变化问题的终极目标。本文从碳中和的目的、本质和进展分析入手,提出了在实现碳中和问题上中国的机遇与挑战。     

Achieving forest carbon information with higher certainty: A five-part plan

International negotiations on the inclusion of land use activities into an emissions reduction system for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been partially hindered by the technical challenges of measuring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the policy issues of leakage, additionality, and permanence. This paper outlines a five-part plan for estimating forest carbon stocks and emissions with the accuracy and certainty needed to support a policy for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, forest conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (the REDD-plus framework considered at the UNFCCC COP-15) in developing countries. The plan is aimed at UNFCCC non-Annex 1 developing countries, but the principles outlined are also applicable to developed (Annex 1) countries. The parts of the plan are: (1) Expand the number of national forest carbon Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems with a priority on tropical developing countries; (2) Implement continuous global forest carbon assessments through the network of national systems; (3) Achieve commitments from national space agencies for the necessary satellite data; (4) Establish agreed-on standards and independent verification processes to ensure robust reporting; and (5) Enhance coordination among international and multilateral organizations.     

A `forest' by any other name…

The Kyoto protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change asks countries to report and provide data on human-induced land use change and forestry activities limited to afforestation, reforestation and deforestation. The terms `afforestation, reforestation and deforestation' have different meanings — country-to-country and from practicing foresters to the general public. The USDA Forest Service and the International Union of Forestry Research Organizations' Working Unit 6.03.02 on Trends in Forest Terminology commissioned a study to be undertaken to gain a better understanding of the terms in use. This study concentrates on the terms deforestation, afforestation and reforestation, but it also examined related terms of land use, land cover, forest, tree, regeneration and degradation. The paper reports on the results of that study and makes some general recommendations for consideration by the Conference of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for standardization of key terms.     

China, the United States and technology cooperation on climate control

The U.S. and China are the world's largest and second largest CO₂ emitters, respectively, and to what extent the U.S. and China get involved in combating global climate change is extremely important both for lowering compliance costs of climate mitigation and adaptation and for moving international climate negotiations forward. While it is unavoidable that China will take on commitments at some specific point of time in the future, this paper has argued that the proposal for joint accession by the U.S. and China is not a way forward. For various reasons, such a proposal is in the U.S. interest, but is not in the interest of China. Given the U.S. political reality and institutional settings on the one hand and China's over-riding concern about economic growth and poverty reduction on the other, the two countries are unlikely to take on emissions caps under an international regime, at least for the time being. Therefore, we need to explore the area where cooperation between the two countries to address climate change seems best. The research, development and deployment of clean technology is the area that is in the best interests of the two countries. The U.S. has adopted a technology-oriented approach to climate issues, and has launched the four multilateral initiatives on technology cooperation and the Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (APP). China has participated in all these U.S.-led initiatives, and is a partner to the APP. Strengthened technology cooperation between the two countries through these initiatives and the APP has led some tangible benefits. However, it should be pointed out that while technology is a critical ingredient in a climate policy package, efforts such as the APP can only be part of the solution. They alone cannot ensure that best available technologies are always deployed in the marketplace, and that new technologies will roll out at the pace and on the scale that we need. In order to have such technology-oriented approach to play a full role, we do need a coordinated policy framework agreed via the Kyoto Protocol or a follow-up regime or the parent United Nations Framework Convention.     

A synopsis of land use,land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) under the Kyoto Protocol and Marrakech Accords

The complexities inherent in land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities have led to contentious and prolonged debates about the merits of their inclusion in the 2008–2012 first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Yet the inclusion of these activities played a key role in agreement on the general framework of the Kyoto Protocol, and LULUCF will likely continue to play a substantial part in negotiations on national commitments post-2012. The Marrakech Accords dictate which LULUCF activities are to be included under the Kyoto Protocol and provide rules on how they are to be accounted in the first commitment period. However, these rules have limitations and drawbacks that may be avoided in the structure of future commitments beyond 2012. Through adherence to the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the incorporation of several critical features, a future framework can more effectively address the mitigation challenges and opportunities of this sector.     

Measuring countries’ cooperation within the international climate change regime

We present a method how to estimate and compare the cooperative behavior of countries within the international climate change regime. Two indicators measure whether and how fast countries have committed to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol (KP). Three additional indicators quantify whether and how effectively measures have been implemented in line with these agreements. These three measures are reporting, financial contributions, and development of per capita CO₂ emissions in relation to the per capita gross domestic product of each country. Results show that developed countries with emission targets under the KP ratified the protocol more often and faster, submitted their report timelier, and paid their annual financial contributions to the UNFCCC secretariat more regularly than the other countries. However, concerning CO₂ emissions, developing countries are evaluated more positively than developed countries. The five indicators are aggregated to a ‘Cooperation Index’ that evaluates 198 countries’ cooperative behavior within the international climate regime on a scale between 0 (=least cooperative) and 6 (=most cooperative). According to this Cooperation Index, the following large countries are ranked after their level of cooperation in ascending order: United States of America, Australia, Russia, Canada, Brazil, China, India, South Africa, and large European countries.     

浅谈汽车涡轮增压技术的节能减排

由于全球环境不断恶化,人们开始追求低碳生活,以改善生存环境。本文在分析汽车涡轮增压技术功能的基础上,探讨了涡轮增压技术的节能减排优势,同时分析了该技术目前存在的问题,并提出了改进的建议。该研究对技术人员和消费者购车具有一定的参考价值。     

Including land use,land-use change,and forestry in future climate change,agreements: thinking outside the box

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely “de-linking” LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.     

Collaborative use of geodesign tools to support decision-making on adaptation to climate change

Spatial planners around the world need to make climate change adaptation plans. Climate adaptation planning requires combining spatial information with stakeholder values. This study demonstrates the potential of geodesign tools as a mean to integrate spatial analysis with stakeholder participation in adaptation planning. The tools are interactive and provide dynamic feedback on stakeholder objectives in response to the application of spatial measures. Different rationalities formed by underlying internalized values influence the reasoning of decision-making. Four tools were developed, each tailored to different rationalities varying between a collective or individual viewpoint and analytical or political arguments. The tools were evaluated in an experiment with four groups of participants that were set around an interactive mapping device: the touch table. To study how local decision-making on adaptation can be supported, this study focuses on a specific case study in the Netherlands. In this case study, multiple different stakeholders need to make spatial decisions on land use and water management planning in response to climate change. The collaborative use of four geodesign tools was evaluated in an interactive experiment. The results show that the geodesign tools were able to integrate the engagement of stakeholders and assessment of measures. The experiment showed that decision-making on adaptation to climate change can benefit from the use of geodesign tools as long as the tool is carefully matched to the rationality that applies to the adaptation issue. Although the tools were tested to support the design of adaptation plans in a Dutch setting, the tools could be used for regional adaptation planning in other countries such as the development of regional adaptation strategies (RAS) as required by the European Union or on a national scale to support developing national adaptation plans of action (NAPAs) as initiated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for least developed countries.     

Building responsiveness to climate change through community based adaptation in Bangladesh

This article explores the drivers, benefits, and challenges to climate change adaptation in Bangladesh. It specifically investigates the “Community Based Adaptation to Climate Change through Coastal Afforestation Program,” a 5-year $5 million adaptation scheme being funded and implemented in part by the Government of Bangladesh, United Nations Development Program, and Global Environment Facility. The article explores how the CBACC-CA builds various types of adaptive capacity in Bangladesh and the extent its design and implementation offers lessons for other adaptation programs around the world. The first part of the study begins by describing its research methods consisting of research interviews, site visits, and a literature review. It then summarizes six primary sectors vulnerable to climate change in Bangladesh: water resources and coastal zones, infrastructure and human settlements, agriculture and food security, forestry and biodiversity, fisheries, and human health. The article next describes the genesis and background behind the CBACC-CA, with an emphasis on components that promote capacity development, demonstration projects, risk reduction, and knowledge management. The article concludes that technology by itself is only a partial component of successful adaptation efforts, and that multiple and integrated adaptation measures that cut across sectors and social, institutional, and infrastructural dimensions are needed to truly build resilience and effectiveness.     

Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change

An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data.