Trade-offs and performances of a range of alternative global climate architectures for post-2012

Quantitative assessments help to highlight the main features of climate policies by better identifying their strengths and weaknesses. In this study, we develop a grading system for assessing thirteen proposals for post-2012 climate policy. We believe that these proposals contain appropriate policy instruments which will be considered for discussions about how to design the post-2012 climate agreement. Our grades are based on four criteria: environmental effectiveness, cost effectiveness, distributional considerations and institutional feasibility. We analyze the grades with two complementary methods: principal component and cluster analysis. Our results entail three policy implications. Firstly, the higher the number of policy instruments a proposal comprises, the more difficult might be its implementation. Secondly, proposals which include a meaningful effort by the U.S. tend to fail in environmental effectiveness and institutional feasibility. Thirdly, we identify that the “first best” and the “second best” approaches belong to a stable policy group, and both may be considered as suitable candidates for post-2012 climate policy.     

Can strategic technology development improve climate cooperation? A game-theoretic analysis

Clean technology has figured prominently in recent debates on international climate policy. This article offers a game-theoretic investigation of the possibility and effectiveness of strategic technology development: environmental leaders setting policies that reduce the global cost of clean technology. The game-theoretic model combines technology development and adoption with pollution abatement, and it allows technology costs to differ across countries. The key theoretical findings are as follows. First, free riding is an obstacle to technology development in two ways: countries fail to fully internalize the beneficial effect of technology development on (i) global pollution abatement and (ii) the reduced cost of technology adoption in outsider countries. Second, strategic technology development can be effective when (i) a key group of frontrunner countries prefers to invest in research and development and (ii) many other countries are willing to adopt the new technology. The findings suggest that strategic technology deployment by a group of frontrunners can enable more effective climate cooperation in the future.     

Sustainable development as a framework for developing country participation in international climate change policies

The paper presents a number of ideas on how climate change policy implementation in developing countries can be supported by alternative international cooperation mechanisms that are based on stakeholder interests and policy priorities including broader economic and social development issues. It includes a brief review of current development policies, technological research and promotion efforts, and climate change that demonstrates that mutual policy initiatives undertaken by governments and the private sector actually have major positive impacts on climate change without being initiated by this global policy concern. Furthermore a number of examples are given on how future development objectives in Brazil, China, and India jointly can support economic and social goals and global climate change concerns if these goals are taken into consideration and supported by international cooperative mechanisms. The paper proposes international cooperative mechanisms that can support the implementation of integrated development and climate change policies. The mechanisms include an international sustainable development (SD) and Climate Finance Mechanism (SDCFM), technology development and transition programmes, technology standards, and other measures.

清洁发展机制(CDM)实践及理论研究进展

清洁发展机制(CDM)是《京都议定书》(KP)中规定的发达国家与发展中国家之间的温室气体减排合作方式。随着2005年2月26日KP的生效,CDM实施活动在全球范围内开始全面展开。中国被公认为是温室气体减排潜力最大的国家,具有广阔的开展CDM合作的前景。为了能配合国内CDM的实践活动,本文在大量文献及重要文件研究基础上,总结了CDM诞生10年来的实践及理论发展情况,并分析了CDM今后的发展趋势。     

建设全国性碳排放交易中心发展CDM项目

清洁发展机制（CDM）是《京都议定书》提出的在全球范围内实施温室气体减排的重要机制,是发达国家与发展中国家基于项目的合作形式,是一种“双赢”政策。文章首先简述了清洁发展机制及与碳交易市场的情况,接着论述了清洁发展机制在中国的发展,提出建设全国的碳排放交易中心及意义,从而促进CDM在中国的发展。     

中国跨境能源贸易及隐含能源流动对比——以“一带一路”能源合作为例

随着“一带一路”倡议的提出,能源互联互通成为中国对外合作的重要组成。以“一带一路”能源合作为切入点,从直接能源贸易和隐含能源流动的双重角度刻画中国跨境能源关联并开展对比研究,主要结论包括：（1）从直接能源角度,“一带一路”沿线沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯等国家均为中国重要的直接能源进口国;（2）从隐含能源角度,中国为印度、新加坡、泰国等国家提供了大量的能源相关的商品服务;（3）中国与“一带一路”沿线国家直接能源贸易逆差明显,但隐含能源流动处于顺差地位;（4）综合考虑直接能源贸易及隐含能源流动,中国可以发挥不同类型能源关联的辐射带动作用,为中国与“一带一路”沿线国家能源互联互通与共建合作伙伴关系提供坚实基础。     

Clean energy technology transfer: A review of programs under the UNFCCC

This paper describes the experience andresults of programs designed tooperationalize the technology transferprovisions of the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). These programs share a common goal ofdemonstrating modalities for developedcountry parties to fulfill their obligationunder the UNFCCC to supporttechnology transfer to developing countryparties that facilitates theirparticipation in global efforts to combatclimate changes. Several related U.S.bilateral programs and programs supportedby the Climate Technology Initiative, amultilateral effort on behalf of a numberof Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, are included in thisreview. The discussion highlights a numberof common elements of the approaches ofmany of these programs as well as somedifferences. It presents case studies thatfocus on methods and results in China,Mexico, and Southern Africa, and cataloguesand describes the implementation activitiesand results that these programs haveachieved. It concludes by assessing theimplications of this experience for theinternational community as it moves forwardwith the climate change technology transferenterprise.     

Perceptions of the effectiveness of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in advancing national action on climate change

This paper aims to characterise the ways in which the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is trickling down to affect national level action on climate change. State and non-state actors were interviewed at the 8th UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP8) during October and November 2002. The interviews revealed that, among interviewees, climate change was already perceived to be, or was becoming a priority issue. In a number of countries substantial legislation is already in place to facilitate climate change preparedness (both adaptation and mitigation), although respondents suggest that in the majority of cases these changes are not being developed in response to the UNFCCC, but to other drivers. While all respondents saw change occurring at the national level, mostly through planning and research, few saw climate change response actions at the local level. Respondents agreed that climate risks must be managed through various mechanisms, from finding ways to participate in the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms to managing the impacts of foreign direct investments. The majority of respondents focussed on in-country actions such as identifying the most vulnerable groups, but few identified the need for greater global cooperation.To conclude, the Convention plays a role in shaping the discourse of climate change and in generating national level responses. These responses are played out differently according to the geographic, environmental, economic, social and cultural conditions of each country. The Convention is clearly important, but perhaps it is not adequate to inspire national action to resolve the problems of climate change. There is scope for many additional initiatives, through collaboration, trade or aid, and through bilateral agreements.     

Current status of climate change adaptation plans across the United States

The objective of the analysis is to compare the current status of state level climate change adaptation plans across the United States (U.S.) and to analyze potential factors that may influence their status. Based on their most current adaptation planning documentation individual states are grouped into four categories depending on how far they are in their approach towards adaptation to predicted changes in climate and how they have progressed with their planning efforts in defining adaptation measures. The analysis of the state adaptation plans showed that 13 states had detailed sector specific actions recommended, 2 states had sector specific targets and recommendation, 14 states had expressed concern and need for adaptation planning, whereas 21 states did not mention the need for adaptation planning. The statistical analysis showed that Democratic Party popular votes are 10 % higher in states with detailed sector specific actions recommended in comparison to states with no mention of adaptation planning (p?<?0.01). The average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in states having an adaptation planning status with detailed sector specific actions recommended is more than $6,000 higher compared to states with expressed concern and need for adaptation planning and states with no mention of adaptation planning (p?<?0.05). The average coastal population in states with detailed sector specific actions recommended is more than seven times higher compared to states with expressed concern and states with no mention of adaptation planning (p?<?0.01). It is concluded that the U.S. state planning initiatives will need to strengthen their approach to adaptation planning substantially to have holistic and more coordinated adaptation planning efforts.     

Effectiveness of the Local Adaptation Plan of Action to support climate change adaptation in Nepal

A key challenge in climate change adaptation in developing countries as a whole, and to handling global change in particular, is to link local adaptation needs on the one hand, with national adaptation initiatives on the other, so that vulnerable households and communities can directly benefit. This study assesses the impact of the Nepal government’s efforts to promote its Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) and its applicability to other least developed countries (LDCs). Based on data gathered from two field studies in Nepal, the research shows that the Nepal’s LAPA has succeeded in mobilizing local institutions and community groups in adaptation planning and recognizing their role in adaptation. However, the LAPA approach and implementation have been constrained by sociostructural and governance barriers that have failed to successfully integrate local adaptation needs in local planning and increase the adaptive capacity of vulnerable households. This paper describes the mechanisms of suitable governance strategies for climate change adaptation specific to Nepal and other LDCs. It also argues the need to adopt an adaptive comanagement approach, where the government and all stakeholders identify common local- and national-level mainstreaming strategy for knowledge management, resource mobilization, and institutional development, ultimately using adaptation as a tool to handle global change.     

中美能源权力的空间领域与均势区演化

随着美国“页岩气革命”取得重大突破,当前世界能源贸易版图和政治经济格局加速重塑,美国成为新的传统能源权力领导者,中国和平崛起下的能源安全问题愈发严峻。基于相互依赖理论和均势理论,构建了能源权力空间理论框架和能源权力静态模型,刻画出 2003—2018年间中美能源权力的空间范围及均势区变化：（1）随着国际能源权力体系和能源贸易网络的发展演变,中国和美国的能源权力空间发生巨大变化。（2）中美煤权力和天然气权力空间基本形成较为稳定的区域组团,中国原油权力空间保持强劲的全球扩展趋势,而美国原油权力空间面临转型重构。（3）中美能源权力的空间均势区不断碎片化成点状镶嵌,相对集中于欧洲大部、非洲南部和东亚,形成资源禀赋型、资源消费型、地缘通道型、政经倾向分离型、“第三国”控制型等五种类型。（4）中国对五种类型国家的能源合作政策宜因地制宜,有所侧重。通过政治和经济双重利益吸引资源禀赋型国家,与资源市场型国家加强能源技术合作,确保地缘通道型国家安全畅通,对政经倾向分离型国家加强经济合作以影响外交政治,合理安排与“第三国”主导型国家的能源合作。结论可为中国应对全球能源转型和能源格局重塑的复杂性变局,加强对外能源贸易合作与要素资源投放,确保国家能源安全提供理论和政策借鉴。     

Clearing the way for reducing emissions from tropical deforestation

Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation account for about 25% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions but cannot be credited under current climate change agreements. In the discussions around the architecture of the post-2012 climate regime, the possibility of including credits for reduced emissions from deforestation arises. The paper reviews two approaches for this, compensated reductions (CR) as proposed by Santilli et al. and the Joint Research Centre proposal that combine voluntary commitments by non-Annex I countries to reduce emissions from deforestation with carbon market financing. Both approaches have the clear advantages of simplicity and the possibility of fitting to an evolving greenhouse gas emission reduction regime. The authors consider the strengths and limitations of each proposal and build upon them to address several implementation challenges and options for improvement. Given the urgency of avoiding dangerous climate change, the timely development of technically sound, politically acceptable, cost-effective and practicable measures to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is essential. These two approaches take us a step closer to this goal, but they need to be refined rapidly to enable this goal to be realised.     

End-of-life vehicle recycling and international cooperation between Japan,China and Korea: Present and future scenario analysis

In the area of end-of-life vehicle (ELV) recycling, Japan passed the Automobile Recycling Law in January 2005, the first in Asia. Korea followed suit with the passage of the resource circulation method in 2009. China is expected make a new recycling law in 2011. In contribution to these initiatives, Tohoku University made a comparative analysis of ELV recycling laws, advance dismantling experiments and scenario analysis to promote international cooperation. This is envisioned to introduce ELV recycling system in Japan, China and Korea and in developing countries as well.     

排水综合评价中的生物毒性测试技术

随着工业化和城市化的发展,工业废水和城市污水成为环境水体的主要污染源. 发达国家在实施基于BAT(the best applicable technology,最佳可行技术)的排放政策后,针对成分复杂的有毒排放废水,以排水生物毒性测试为基础,分别建立了WET(whole effluent toxicity,排水综合毒性)评价技术体系,将生态毒理学测试和毒性指标应用于排放废水的管理. 各国和区域组织选用的排放废水生物毒性测试方法存在较大差异: 美国、加拿大和澳大利亚国土面积大、气候类型复杂、生物物种差异大,开发了许多本土生物的毒性测试方法;德国、OSPAR(欧洲大陆国家组织《保护东北大西洋海洋环境公约》15国)和COHIBA(波罗的海有害物质控制项目8国)则重视开发标准受试生物的测试方法,并且开发了遗传毒性和内分泌干扰性等新型测试方法,便于不同国家采用统一测试方法和排放限值;英国和新西兰是岛国,河流较短,更加关注海岸带生态系统. 我国从20世纪80年代开始开展排水生物毒性测试技术研究,相关测试标准门类和数量不足,应充分借鉴发达国家的经验,分步、分区建立排水综合毒性测试标准体系.      

中韩合作助力东北亚蓝天

中韩两国乃至整个东北亚都面临空气质量改善的紧迫需求和挑战,大气污染防治领域的交流合作成为国际社会环境合作的热点议题. 为共同应对雾霾挑战,2019年以来,中韩两国通过密切交流合作,探索形成了一套以合作机制创新、共同平台建设、旗舰项目打造、互助联合研究等为主体的务实高效的合作范式,打破了双方在组织、地域、学科、信息、技术等方面的“五大壁垒”,实现了政策、技术、数据、信息、成果等共享,助力了两国空气质量改善,也推动了东北亚区域空气质量整体改善,为推动构建人类命运共同体在区域层面的实践提供了生态环境领域的宝贵经验. 本文在分析阐释2015—2019年中韩两国空气质量改善的紧迫需求和挑战的基础上,全面总结2019—2021年中韩大气领域合作进展和成果,以及合作过程中形成的具有全局性、前瞻性和可复制性的合作范式,阐明双方在提升两国大气污染治理能力、助力空气质量改善、切实回应社会关注问题实现增信释疑、支撑多边环境外交等方面的合作成效,并基于东北亚大气环境治理需求和面临的新形势,提出加强东北亚区域合作的展望和建议,建议未来两国应持续打造和推广中韩大气领域双边合作范式,积极推动建立“中韩+”环境合作新格局,为东北亚乃至全球大气环境治理贡献中韩智慧和方案.      

国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展与启示

加强气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究,有助于旅游业在气候变化背景下实现可持续发展。基于SCI/SSCI文献数据库,梳理分析国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展。结果显示,30余年来国外主要采用指标方法、需求模型与选择分析方法开展相关研究。20世纪80年代末出现的指标方法是运用最早、最广泛的方法,主要用于旅游资源环境变化等研究,呈现由单项指标转向综合指标的应用趋势;20世纪90年代末兴起的需求模型主要用于天气状况对旅游需求的影响等研究,呈现由时间序列模型转向累计需求模型的应用趋势;21世纪兴起的选择分析主要用于气候变化背景下的行为意愿等研究,呈现由描述统计转向离散选择模型的应用趋势。这些给我国研究的启示是：在研究方法与研究领域上,重点加强累计需求模型在旅游流相关研究中的运用,加强离散选择模型在旅游市场结构相关研究中的运用,加强系统科学方法与大数据技术在相关研究中的运用;在研究对象上,丰富中国境内气候敏感型旅游活动的相关研究,加强“一带一路”沿线国家、地区及青藏高原的相关研究。     

The Green Climate Fund as an effective compensatory mechanism in global climate negotiations

The Paris Agreement reached during the COP21 in December 2015 represents a timid step towards burden sharing in emission mitigation involving all countries. However, given the heterogeneity of countries and their relative differences in vulnerability to climate change damage and in mitigation costs, compensating schemes are required to reach an effective agreement. This paper investigates the role of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as a potential compensating measure for both adaptation and mitigation actions under a global climate regime. A dynamic climate-economy computable general equilibrium model (GDynEP) is developed by including both a monetary valuation of climate change damage costs and two alternative methods to determine the allocation of GCF resources among receiving countries and between adaptation and mitigation contributions. Results show that, despite the high costs associated with the implementation of mitigation actions, most developing countries would face even higher costs in case of inaction. Furthermore, the preference of a country for an allocation method is strongly influenced by its characteristics and needs. Consequently, a main policy conclusion is to design country-specific sharing rules for GCF in order to maximize country participation in a global agreement.     

2050年中国能源消费的情景预测

与全球气候变化紧密相关的能源消费问题是当今世界各国关注的热点,特别是中国能源消费规模、能源消费峰值和消费结构等更是关注的重点.论文在简要评述中国能源消费峰值、能源消费预测方法和模型的基础上,系统回顾了国内外对中国能源消费预测研究成果,侧重于人口和经济等驱动中国能源消费的两大主要因素,参考主要发达国家经济发展过程中人均能源消耗及人均累计能耗变化规律,对中国未来能源消费趋势进行了定量预测分析.结果表明:① 中国人均能耗、总量和人均累计消费量均有较大的发展潜力.2050年中国人均能耗大致在4.75~9.31 tce,上限也只相当于美国人均能耗峰值的76%;中国能源消费总量还将持续增长,2050 年的能源消费总量在61.91×10⁸~121.33×10⁸tce;1870-2050 年,中国人均累计能耗最佳分布区间为207~294 tce,只相当于1870-2012 年美国人均累计能耗的46%、德国的56%、英国的57%.② 文献梳理表明,当前预测中国能源消费峰值的各种研究成果大多认为在62×10⁸~79×10⁸tce,而峰值年份则出现在2035-2045 年,论文认为除美国、英国和德国情景将有峰值出现外,其他情景尚不可能出现峰值;③ 法国情景下中国能源消费“零”增长将于2040 年左右出现;日本、韩国以及基准情景预测显示,2035 年以后中国能源消费将进入到2%左右的低速增长期.上述研究结果表明,中国未来能源消费预测采用法国、日本、韩国情景较为合理,2035 年以后,中国能源消费将进入低速增长期.当前,中国人均收入不高,人均能耗尤其人均累计能耗处于较低水平,过早乐观承诺能源消费峰值,易使气候变化谈判陷入被动;从中国国情出发,需给中国社会经济发展留有能源消耗空间;促进能源资源的节约集约使用,积极倡导节能型生产生活方式,是中国社会经济可持续发展、保障能源安全、积极应对全球气候变化的现实需要.     

国际贸易“碳中和”研究热点领域及其动向

碳中和是世界各国面临的共同问题。经济全球化与贸易自由化背景下国际贸易总量快速增长,伴随着深度国际分工与产业转移,贸易产品的生产者与消费者在陆表形成严重的空间位移。利用文献计量软件CiteSpace分析国际贸易主题下碳中和相关文献,揭示国际贸易“碳中和”研究动向。研究发现：（1）温室气体在全球范围时空演变,使跨区域、多尺度的全球碳治理变得更加复杂,发达国家将高污染与低价值链产业转移至各发展中国家,以生产者责任划分的碳核算原则不再适用于国际贸易合作。（2）进出口贸易逐渐成为新兴经济体经济发展动力,全球碳治理应转向新兴经济体与区域一体化,全球气候政策设计应遵守国际碳市场公平性底线,不断优化碳排放量核算体系,完善碳会计方法,模拟全球碳减排预期效果。重点提高产业部门碳减排意识和产业清洁技术及能源利用效率,利用多种手段改变生态系统的增汇减碳能力。新兴经济体在承接发达国家技术援助同时,应重点关注本国能源产业,发展可再生能源产业,提高能源的利用效率,并运用经济政策与金融工具促进本国的气候变化投融资产业发展。全球碳治理应更加注重公平性与国家间的经济发展、环境资源差异,利用多样的碳治理工具与协商合作方式,促使更多国家参与全球化或区域一体化的碳治理模式。（3）中国亟待通过国内多产业、多部门的增汇减排与国际碳减排、碳中和实践,健全碳市场机制,提高碳治理水平,为国际碳治理合作提供“最大公约数”。     

美国2006～2011年水环境保护战略规划及启示

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