我国4个大气背景点环境空气颗粒物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10))中水溶性离子分布特征

为研究国家大气背景点颗粒物质量浓度与水溶性离子组成特征,于2013年2月、7月、9月、12月分别对4个国家大气背景点进行了PM2.5及PM10的采样,通过超声萃取-IC法测定了样品中的9种水溶性离子(F-、Cl-、NO-3、SO2-4、Na+、NH+4、K+、Mg2+、Ca2+)质量浓度,结果表明:(1)可吸入颗粒物浓度水平一、二季度重于三、四季度,PM2.5、PM10年均值分别为17μg·m-3、32μg·m-3,与其他主要国家和地区背景区域浓度相当,背景点大气状况良好;(2)PM2.5中水溶性离子比重全年波动不大,为35.5%—42.2%,浓度排序为SO2-4、NH+4、NO-3Ca2+、Cl-、K+、Na+F-、Mg2+,第一季度PM10中Ca2+浓度显著升高,控制风沙尘将有效降低PM10的浓度;PM2.5及PM10中的9种水溶性离子在不同季节的浓度分布规律与颗粒物浓度类似,一季度较高,三、四季度较低;(3)二次离子是背景点区域的主要水溶性离子,浓度值与其他主要国家和地区相当.NO-3、SO2-4的物质的量浓度与NH+4存在显著相关性,相关系数r为0.7539,斜率小于1,水溶性离子中酸性离子的量比铵根离子略占优势,对气溶胶酸度产生重要贡献.     

西藏日喀则地区夏、冬季大气颗粒物水溶性离子粒径分布特征

为研究日喀则不同粒径大气颗粒物中水溶性无机离子的组成特征,利用Andersen分级撞击式采样器在夏、冬季进行大气颗粒物分级采样,采用离子色谱测定NH+4、Ca2+、K+、Mg2+、Na+、SO2-4、NO-3和Cl-等8种离子浓度.结果表明,夏、冬季总离子浓度分别为9648±3030、4925±1138 ng·m-3.夏季离子浓度高低顺序为Cl-﹥Ca2+﹥NH+4﹥Na+﹥SO2-4﹥NO-3﹥K+﹥Mg2+,Cl-、Ca2+、NH+4和Na+占总离子浓度的比重为74.9%;冬季水溶性无机离子浓度高低顺序为Cl-﹥SO2-4﹥NH+4﹥NO-3﹥Ca2+﹥Na+﹥K+﹥Mg2+,Cl-、SO2-4、NH+4和NO-3占总离子浓度的比重为88.0%.夏、冬季大气颗粒物中所有水溶性无机离子的粒径分布均成双峰型.夏季,大气颗粒物中SO2-4与Mg2+(r=0.951)、Ca2+(r=0.947),NO-3与Mg2+(r=0.904)、Ca2+(r=0.843),在0.01水平(双侧)上均显著相关;冬季,细粒子中K+与Cl-(r=0.740)、SO2-4(r=0.929)及NO-3(r=0.920),在0.01水平(双侧)上显著相关.     

2014年APEC期间北京及周边重点城市PM_(2.5)中水溶性离子变化特征

2014年11月北京APEC会议前后,采集了北京、天津、石家庄、保定、济南的PM2.5样品,并测定了其中Cl-、NO-3、SO2-4、Na+、NH+4、K+、Ca2+、Mg2+等8种水溶性离子的质量浓度.结果表明:(1)北京市在特殊减排期内水溶性离子浓度均有显著降低,2013年是该时段的1.2—5.2倍,会后为该时段的1.5—6.1倍.其中变化较大的是Ca2+,由2.58μg·m-3降至0.494μg·m-3,其次为SO2-4、NOx,说明土壤尘、硫化物及氮氧化物的控制尤为显著.(2)APEC期间整个北京及周边城市群地区,水溶性离子特征呈现了一定的区域性特征,二次离子占水溶性离子的80%以上,模拟方程计算可知,大气气溶胶中SO2-4、NO-3和NH+4是以(NH4)2SO4和NH4NO3形式共存.水溶性离子占PM2.5质量浓度的比重均较以往及会后降低,其中北京最低为37.8%.针对区域的阴阳离子平衡计算,阴阳离子较高的相关性(R=0.974)说明了区域呈现一定的整体性特征.会后NO-3/SO2-4比值下降,说明硫化物在减排期间浓度显著降低.污染减排措施在APEC期间对大气颗粒物中的水溶性离子污染的减轻起到了积极作用.     

京津冀冬季与夏季PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)及其水溶性离子组分区域性污染特征分析

为研究京津冀地区冬、夏两季大气颗粒物质量浓度与水溶性离子组成特征,于2013年2月、7月对北京、天津、石家庄及4个国家大气背景点进行了PM2.5及PM10的采样,分析了质量浓度及9种水溶性离子,结果表明:(1)京津冀地区颗粒物污染冬季重于夏季,冬季污染水平石家庄天津北京,夏季污染天津、北京石家庄,区域内PM2.5与PM10之间有很好的相关性,相关系数r冬季为0.8796,夏季为0.8424,说明整个区域颗粒物污染有较为相近的来源,大气颗粒物污染表现出区域性特征;(2)京津冀地区PM2.5及PM10中的9种水溶性离子浓度规律为NO-3、SO2-4、NH+4Cl-、Ca2+K+、Na+F-、Mg2+.该地区水溶性离子污染冬季最重为石家庄,夏季则为北京;(3)在京津冀地区二次离子NO-3、SO2-4、NH+4是主要的污染离子,3种离子质量浓度总和在PM2.5、PM10中冬季分别占48.9%、27.8%,夏季分别占58.7%、48.5%.二次离子主要集中在PM2.5中,其对细离子浓度的升高起到直接作用,且二次离子的构成关系也在发生变化.整个区域向硝酸型污染转变,二次离子的季节分布也呈现区域特征,冬季NO-3离子质量浓度比重最大.夏季则为SO2-4;(4)粒径越小富集水溶性离子的能力越强,在PM1中分布了50%以上的水溶性离子,73.9%—94.8%的水溶性离子分布在PM2.5中.     

北京冬季一次重污染过程PM2.5中水溶性无机盐的变化特征

为了解北京冬季重污染过程大气颗粒物化学特性,利用高时间分辨率实时在线细粒子快速捕集及化学成分分析系统(RCFP-IC)对2011年2月18—24日发生的一次重污染过程PM2.5中水溶性无机离子浓度变化进行了在线观测.结合颗粒物质量浓度、气态污染物浓度及气象资料,对此次污染过程中污染物的化学成分变化特征进行了详细分析.结果表明,此次北京冬季重污染4 d中颗粒物污染严重;总水溶性无机离子平均质量浓度151.31μg·m-3,占PM2.5相对比例54%,其中NO3-、SO24-和NH4+质量浓度占总水溶性无机离子质量浓度91%,二次离子污染非常严重;硝酸根氧化率(NOR)和硫酸根氧化率(SOR)结果显示NO3-与SO24-主要通过非均相反应生成,水溶性无机盐存在形态以NH4HSO4和(NH4)2SO4为主;重污染期K+和Cl-质量浓度显著升高,Mg2+和Ca2+质量浓度下降;阳、阴离子电荷比(C/A)重污染平均值为0.8,细粒子偏酸性.     

北京春季城区与远郊区不同大气粒径颗粒物中水溶性离子的分布特征

为比较北京城区与远郊区大气颗粒物中水溶性无机离子的组成特征,2012年4月,利用Andersen分级撞击式采样器同时在2个采样点进行大气颗粒物分级采样,样品采用离子色谱分析.结果表明,城区和上甸子大气颗粒物中水溶性无机离子总浓度分别为(83.7±48.9)μg·m-3和(75.5±52.9)μg·m-3,NO-3、SO2-4和NH+4是最主要的水溶性无机离子,分别占总离子浓度的81.2%和84.2%.粒径分布显示,Mg2+和Ca2+在5.8～9.0μm的粒径范围出现峰值,Na+、NH+4、Cl-在0.43～1.1μm和4.7～9.0μm的粒径范围出现双峰,K+、NO-3和SO2-4在0.65～2.1μm的粒径范围出现峰值.后向轨迹簇分析表明,气团来自南方时,城区和上甸子二次离子浓度分别为(92.4±40.0)μg·m-3和(95.0±35.4)μg·m-3,来自其他方向时,分别为(24.0±10.8)μg·m-3和(13.3±10.6)μg·m-3.     

国庆前后北京城区PM2.5组分污染及来源特征分析

为探究北京城区国庆前后及国庆期间PM2.5主要组分的污染及来源特征情况,采集2019年9月27日-10月14日北京市大气PM2.5样本,并测定其中碳质气溶胶(OC、EC)及8种水溶性离子(Na+、NH4+、K+、Mg2+、Ca2+、Cl-、NO3-、SO42-)的质量浓度,并分析PM2.5中各化学组分的浓度变化特征、来源特性及气象要素的影响,并对北京市细颗粒物进行源解析和区域传输分析.结果 表明,整个观测期间PM2.5基本呈现"M"型的变化趋势,国庆期间呈现"V"型的变化趋势.国庆期间总碳质气溶胶、水溶性无机离子质量浓度为(14.45±5.87)μg·m-3和(14.97±9.75)μg·m-3,占PM2.5质量浓度的59.7％,各组分质量浓度在国庆期间均有所下降,其中NO3-质量浓度下降最为明显,下降率达53.4％.来源分析结果表明,机动车尾气、燃煤和扬尘是大气PM2.5化学组分的主要来源,其中道路扬尘和建筑扬尘是Ca2+、Mg2+和Na+的主要来源,机动车车尾气排放是碳质气溶胶及二次无机离子的最主要来源.车流量的改变和气象因素与国庆前后PM2.5及其组分变化密切相关,PM2.5及各组分质量浓度在车流量高峰的9月30日和10月6、7日达到峰值,而1-5号移动源贡献减弱和气象要素(降水)导致了最低值的出现.较低的风速及来自于东北、西南方向的污染物输送是观测期间PM2.5较高的重要原因.     

兰州市城区与背景点冬季大气气溶胶中主要无机离子的组成特征

对冬季兰州市城区和环境背景观测点的大气气溶胶样品进行了综合分析.结果显示,在同一地区的气溶胶中,细颗粒(PM10)所富集的无机离子浓度要比粗颗粒(TSP)高出7.59%-15.3%.说明水溶性离子更易在细颗粒中富集.气溶胶在受到人为污染影响后,其水溶性离子的浓度和构成也会因此发生变化.我们可以用测定同一区域内不同采样点气溶胶水溶物浓度的方法,来判断该地区大气气溶胶受污染的程度.在城区集中燃放烟花爆竹的除夕夜,气溶胶中部分水溶性离子浓度会迅速上升.上升幅度最大的是 K ,与非燃放期相比,TSP和 PM10中K 分别高出10.70倍和11.5倍.其次是NO-3, SO2-4,Mg2 ,NH 4和Cl-离子.     

长白山PM2.5中水溶性无机离子观测研究

2005年12月-2006年11月在长白山北坡海拔763 m处,利用大流量滤膜采样器对大气中的PM2.5进行采样,并用离子色谱(IC)分析了PM2.5中水溶性无机离子的成分含量.结果表明,PM2.5中总水溶性无机离子年平均浓度为(7.4±5.7)μg·m-3.其中,主要的3种离子SO2-4、NH+4和NO-3占PM2....     

石家庄冬季道路积尘水溶性离子污染特征及来源分析

为了解石家庄市城市道路积尘水溶性离子组分特征及来源,于2015年冬季使用移动采样法收集城市道路积尘样品,经离子色谱仪分析其水溶性离子组分,用相关性分析和比值分析法解析其污染特征,用主成分分析法初步推断其主要来源.结果表明,10种水溶性离子(Na+、NH+4、K+、Mg2+、Ca2+、F-、Cl-、NO-2、NO-3、SO2-4)占道路积尘PM2.5的15.31%、PM10的11.15%,Ca2+和SO2-4的百分含量在PM2.5和PM10中均大于1%;其中Ca2+在10种离子中所占比例最高、SO2-4次之,PM2.5和PM10中NO-3/SO2-4分别为0.24和0.18;颗粒物总体偏碱性,且PM2.5较PM10碱性更强;推测其来源于机动车排放、大气中燃煤、生物质燃烧和建筑尘的沉降及绿化带尘土.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.