降雨条件下纳米零价铁镍对污染土壤中六价铬迁移的影响

通过模拟降雨进行土柱淋溶实验来研究降雨条件下纳米零价铁镍(nZVI/Ni)对污染土壤六价铬迁移的影响,并测定淋溶液的Cr(Ⅵ)浓度、pH、电导率和累积释放量.使用改进BCR连续提取法测定淋溶后各层土壤的铬形态分布,分析施加nZVI/Ni对土壤中铬形态的影响.结果表明,降雨条件下六价铬的释放过程主要分为快速和慢速释放两个阶段.随着淋溶体积的增加,土壤淋溶液的pH逐渐升高后最后趋于平稳,电导率和Cr(Ⅵ)浓度迅速下降后趋于平稳.模拟降雨条件下,土壤中投加nZVI/Ni显著降低了淋溶液中Cr(Ⅵ)的累积释放量.投加0.10%nZVI/Ni土壤淋溶液的Cr(VI)累积释放量低于空白对照57.53%.在nZVI/Ni投加量相同时,模拟降雨的pH值越低nZVI/Ni的修复效果越好;降雨的淋溶次数对修复效果基本无影响;采用均匀混合的方式投加nZVI/Ni有着更好的修复效果.在土壤中nZVI/Ni对Cr(Ⅵ)修复过程中,纳米铁材料起主要作用,Fe(Ⅱ)的贡献很小.土壤经nZVI/Ni修复后,可还原态铬含量减少,可氧化态铬含量增加,表明纳米零价铁镍可以降低土壤中铬的迁移性,降雨条件下对六价铬污染土壤具有一定的修复效果.     

基于高通量测序技术的铬污染农田土壤菌群多样性及修复菌株的筛选

菌种资源筛选是铬污染土壤生物修复的基础.以铬污染农田土壤为研究对象,采用高通量测序方法分析土壤细菌多样性特征,并根据多样性分析结果,采用选择性培养基和培养方法快速筛选对铬具有适应性和去除能力的细菌,以寻找能在铬污染农田土壤原位修复中具有较大应用潜力的菌种资源.结果显示:受铬污染的土壤细菌群落丰富度和多样性均低于未受铬污染土壤.门水平上,铬污染土壤中放线菌门(Actinobacteria)细菌丰度显著高于未受铬污染的土壤,是两种生境丰度差异最大的门.属水平上,芽孢杆菌属(Bacillus)是铬污染土壤中丰度最高的优势属,显著高于未受铬污染的土壤.从铬污染土壤中共分离到6株能够耐受1 000μg/mL铬的细菌. 6株菌都具有一定的六价铬Cr(VI)去除能力,其中Cr1、Cr3和Cr8能在72 h内将500μg/mL铬培养基中的Cr(VI)全部去除,Cr8能在72 h内将1 000μg/mL铬培养基中的Cr(VI)去除61.2%. 16S rDNA测序结果表明,6株菌中有5株属于厚壁菌门芽孢杆菌属,1株属于放线菌门纤维微菌属(Cellulosimicrobium).结合菌体及菌落形态特征和序列分析结果,铬去除能力最高的Cr8菌可初步被确定为C. aquatile.本研究表明铬污染降低土壤中细菌多样性,根据高通量测序结果有选择性地快速筛选铬污染修复菌株具有可行性,Cr8菌是国内首次分离到的具有铬污染修复功能的纤维微菌属菌株.(图11表5参40)     

一株铬还原菌的分离鉴定及铬还原特性研究

铬污染是目前最为普遍的重金属污染物之一,一定浓度的Cr(Ⅵ)会威胁动植物健康。用微生物修复技术降解高毒性的Cr(Ⅵ)可为环保高效的铬污染治理开辟新途径。针对从湖南某铬盐厂污染区土壤中分离筛选出的铬还原菌G12进行菌种鉴定及铬还原特性研究,明确该菌株的最适生长条件,考察其在不同环境条件下的铬还原效果,为原位微生物修复技术实际工程应用提供理论依据。通过菌株形态特征和16S r RNA基因序列分析,确定该菌株为革兰氏阳性芽孢杆菌,鉴定为短小芽孢杆菌(Bacillus pumilus)。研究发现B.pumilus G12的最佳生长温度和p H分别为30℃和9.0;且菌株铬还原能力随着初始Cr(Ⅵ)浓度的升高而下降;在50、100、200、400和600 mg·L~(-1)初始Cr(Ⅵ)浓度条件下其铬还原率分别为66.2%,35.7%,26.1%,16.0%和6.0%。在改变环境过程中,该菌株以甘油为外加碳源电子供体时对Cr(Ⅵ)的还原率可达100%,在60 h可将50mg·L~(-1)Cr(Ⅵ)还原为零;菌株G12培养可耐受较高盐浓度,在10 g·L~(-1) Na Cl盐浓度下菌株的还原能力最佳,Cr(Ⅵ)的去除率为70%;将菌株分别培养在含不同重金属离子的培养液中,菌株G12还原能力均受到抑制。对菌株G12的铬还原能力的初步研究结果表明,菌株G12在铬污染修复中具有良好的应用潜力。     

铬污染土壤的微生物修复工艺及中试

本研究利用土柱试验研究了铬污染土壤微生物修复的各工艺参数,结果表明:土壤粒径、喷淋强度、以及修复工艺对铬污染土壤的修复效果有很大的影响.最佳的工艺参数为:土壤粒径1～2 cm、喷淋强度在29.6～59.2 mL·min-1、工艺制度Ⅱ(先用自来水淋洗1 d,接着用菌液循环喷淋).在土柱试验的基础上开展了25吨/批的中试试验,铬污染土壤经过7～10 d的处理,土壤中Cr(Ⅵ)浸出毒性浓度由53.8 mg·L-1降低至0.4 mg·L-1,达到《铬渣污染治理环境技术规范》(HJ/T301～2007)中铬渣用作路基材料和混凝土骨料的标准限值,证明铬污染土壤微生物修复工业化具有可行性,为铬污染土壤工程化修复提供了技术支撑.     

底泥铬污染的纳米铁粉修复及其土壤酶活性动态

采用纳米铁粉修复Cr(Ⅵ)不同程度污染底泥,通过测定底泥中4种土壤酶活性,分析纳米铁粉修复对Cr(Ⅵ)污染底泥土壤酶活性的恢复情况.结果表明,纳米铁粉修复对底泥Cr(Ⅵ)有很好的去除效果,添加底泥干质量1%的纳米铁粉在16 d内对底泥30～100 mg·kg-1的Cr(Ⅵ)的去除率均高于99.7%.Cr(Ⅵ)污染显著降低了底泥多酚氧化酶、过氧化氢酶、蛋白酶和脲酶的活性.其中多酚氧化酶对Cr(Ⅵ)污染有很好的线性响应,可用于0～100 mg·kg-1底泥Cr(Ⅵ)污染评价.经过16 d的纳米铁粉修复,Cr(Ⅵ)污染底泥的脲酶活性恢复至未污染对照水平,过氧化氢酶活性的恢复效果不明显,多酚氧化酶和蛋白酶活性有待进一步恢复.     

土壤铬（VI）污染及微生物修复研究进展（Progress on Microbial Remediation of Chromium-Contaminated Soil）

在总结国内外相关研究基础上,介绍了土壤环境中铬(Cr)的污染来源、现状及其对生物的危害,阐述了Cr在土壤中的存在形态和转化机理,并重点综述了土壤重金属Cr(VI)污染的微生物修复机理:土壤中的Cr(VI)可以在微生物还原作用、生物吸附、富集等作用下降低其生物可利用性和毒性,从而达到Cr污染土壤修复的目的.此外,针对微生物修复过程中存在的问题,提出了提高微生物修复Cr污染土壤效果的措施,并对土壤Cr污染微生物修复的发展趋势进行了展望.     

湘江(长沙段)沿岸土壤中铬的形态分布及其在水草中的积累

铬在土壤中主要以Cr(Ⅲ)和Cr(Ⅵ)两种形态存在,而Cr(Ⅵ)主要以CrO2-4,Cr2O2-7,Cr(Ⅲ)主要以Cr3 和CrO-2等形式存在.上述存在形式在土壤中的迁移转化主要受土壤pH值和氧化还原电位(Eh)的制约.另外,也受土壤有机质含量、无机胶体组成、土壤质地及其化合物种类的影响.不同形态的铬在一定条件下可以相互转化.但是单从价态来区分并不能完全反映土壤中铬的真实存在形态,当前较为公认的是Tesseler的形态划分法. 本文研究了湘江(长沙段)沿岸土壤中铬的形态分布、转化及其在水草中的吸收.     

铬(Ⅵ)污染高岭土电动修复实验研究

用电动方法对铬(Ⅵ)污染高岭土的修复进行了实验室研究。选用重铬酸钾作为污染物,配制的高岭土的重铬酸钾质量分数为100mg·kg-1。实验研究了铬(Ⅵ)污染高岭土电动修复的可行性,施加电压和处理时间对去除效率的影响,阴极电解产生的OH-对去除效率的影响及其控制方法,以及铬的迁移和分布规律。实验结果表明,电动修复可以有效去除高岭土中存在的铬(Ⅵ),最高去除效率可达97.8%;高岭中六价铬[Cr(Ⅵ)]以含氧阴离子形式存在,在电动修复过程中向阳极区域迁移;用蒸馏水冲洗和醋酸中和阴极电解产生的OH-,可以提高铬的去除效率。     

粘土矿物作用下铬的迁移转化机理研究进展

铬含量超标威胁生态环境安全,探究多种粘土矿物作用下铬的迁移转化机理,可以为铬污染土壤修复提供理论依据。主要从粘土矿物对铬的氧化-还原、吸附-解吸、催化作用等几个方面归纳分析了粘土矿物作用下铬迁移转化机理的研究现状,探讨了氧化物及微生物作用、pH、温度、有机质、矿物类型等因素对铬迁移转化的影响。首先,锰氧化物是氧化Cr(Ⅲ)的唯一天然矿物,其结构中Mn(Ⅱ)或Mn(Ⅲ)含量越高,氧化能力越强;低温、碱性条件下,Cr(Ⅲ)稳定性较高。锰氧化细菌会加速Cr(Ⅲ)的氧化,矿物表面吸附的Mn(Ⅱ)会抑制Cr(Ⅲ)的氧化。其次,黄铁矿、黑云母、绿泥石、柯绿泥石、磁铁矿等矿物常用于Cr(Ⅵ)还原,黄铁矿组成中的Fe(Ⅱ)和S2~(2-)能有效地还原Cr(Ⅵ),而黑云母、绿泥石只有经生物作用产生Fe(Ⅱ)才能还原Cr(Ⅵ),蒙脱石、伊利石、高岭石、黄铁矿对Cr(Ⅵ)的还原速率在pH4.5时较大。最后,高岭石、伊利石、蛭石、蒙脱石可吸附固持Cr(Ⅵ),且酸性、有机质含量低的条件下吸附效果明显,吸附顺序为:高岭石伊利石蛭石=蒙脱石;粘土矿物层间结合比表面结合更强,可对粘粒矿物进行改性以提高吸附效果。在吸附机理方面,研究者广泛采用Langumiur、Freundlich等方程来描述矿物对铬的吸附。粘土矿物作用下铬的迁移转化机理探究,可以使我们更加深入的了解沉积物、土壤对铬的解毒原理以及矿物在其中所起的作用,这对于矿物材料吸附性能的提高、铬污染土壤的治理具有深远的意义。     

土壤水介质中Cr(Ⅵ)与Fe(Ⅱ)氧化还原反应环境动力学的研究

铬本是环境中普遍存在的微量营养元素,由于大量含铬废水、废渣排入环境,致使土壤、水体和生物遭受损害,铬污染成为公众关心的环境问题。在环境中经常以Cr(Ⅲ)及Cr(Ⅵ)两种价态存在,它们的环境化学行为及生物效应很不相同,但在不同的氧化还原环境中它们常常互相转化,因此研究Cr(Ⅲ)与Cr(Ⅵ)相互转化的反应动力学机理是十分重要的。     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.