生活垃圾焚烧飞灰及其稳定化产物的长期浸出行为

采用柱浸出实验方法,考察了飞灰、磷酸盐稳定和自然老化稳定后飞灰的长期浸出特性.结果表明:灰样浸出液的pH值从初始的较低值快速上升到较高值后趋于稳定,3种飞灰都有较强的酸中和能力;Ca的浸出浓度远高于Pb,Cd,Zn,Cr和Ni等重金属,在浸出初期甚至达到100g·1-1以上;重金属均呈现初期快速溶出的现象;对比稳定化处理前后飞灰的柱浸出实验结果,表明磷酸盐稳定及自然老化稳定后飞灰具有更好的长期稳定性;对比柱浸出实验和国标GB5086.1-199r7的浸出结果,表明后者可能低估了稳定后飞灰处置初期重金属的浸出风险     

镍钴采选行业废石和尾矿中重金属淋溶释放规律研究

镍钴采选废石和尾矿中重金属的溶出释放规律对矿区的重金属污染防治具有重要意义。但目前,国内还没有对镍钴行业采选产生的尾矿和废石中重金属的溶出规律开展研究。本文以镍钴采选企业的尾矿和废石作为样本,开展了毒性浸出实验。研究了不同pH值、离子强度、温度等实验条件对重金属溶出的影响,探讨了镍钴采选过程中所产生的尾矿和废石中重金属的溶出特性和释放规律。实验结果表明,尾矿样品中Ni的浸出浓度为42.28 mg·L^-1,是最大允许排放浓度的8.86倍,为具有浸出毒性特征的危险废物;废石样品中重金属Ni和Cu的溶出浓度分别为4.72 mg·L^-1和26.2 mg·L^-1,超过最大允许排放浓度,属于第Ⅱ类一般工业固体废物。pH对样品中Ni、Cr、Pb、Co和As的溶出量影响较大,其中尾矿中Ni和Cu在pH较低的条件下,可达到44.28 mg·L^-1和53 mg·L^-1,远高于最大允许排放浓度,而Hg、Cd和Cu的溶出量随pH值的变化不大。除As以外,样品中大多数重金属的溶出质量浓度在酸性条件下比在中性条件下高,这表明在酸性环境条件下,这些重金属对周围生态环境的潜在风险更大。离子强度的变化对Cd和Co的溶出量的变化并不明显,而当离子强度变化时,Ni、Cr、Pb、Hg、Cu和As的溶出量可能达到最大,使周围环境的潜在生态风险增大。当温度达到35~40℃时,部分重金属如Co、Pb、Cd 等,溶出量将达到最大;当温度低于25℃时,除 Ni 以外,大部分重金属溶出量很低。而温度变化对重金属Cu、As、Cr和Hg的溶出量的影响不明显,波动范围较小,对周围生态环境产生的潜在生态风险较小。     

城市生活垃圾焚烧发电飞灰中重金属的固定化研究

垃圾焚烧发电飞灰排放是重金属污染的一个重要来源之一。选用实验室合成的含硫有机稳定剂(DT)并优选无机固化剂(DF),组成有机-无机复合固定剂体系,进行飞灰中重金属的固定化实验,研究一种经济、有效的飞灰无害化处理方法,以满足生活垃圾填埋污染控制标准对飞灰填埋的处理要求。以广州市生活垃圾焚烧发电产生的飞灰为研究对象,分别考察了DT和DF单一添加处理以及混合联用处理对飞灰中重金属的固定化效果。浸出数据表明,随着DT和DF的投料量的增加,飞灰固化体的浸出浓度相应降低。当DT和DF投加量质量分数分别为1.0%和2.4%时,飞灰固化体的重金属浸出浓度均低于生活垃圾填埋浓度限值,说明DT和DF可以实现药剂配伍,提高飞灰中重金属固定化效果,同时减少有机药剂的使用量,从而降低处理成本。该研究同时做了药剂固定化试验和水泥固化试验,通过对比发现药剂固定化法具有增容少、养护时间短和稳定化效果好的优点。采用分级提取法对飞灰中重金属的形态进行了分析,结果表明经混合药剂处理后飞灰中的重金属的形态均呈现出由不稳定态向稳定态转化的趋势。采用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)对固定化前后的飞灰进行了分析,结果表明经混合药剂处理后的飞灰颗粒变大,且颗粒表面变得致密,空隙减少,从而减少与浸提剂的接触面积,降低其浸出毒性。     

贵州城市生活垃圾焚烧过程中重金属分布和迁移特征

为了探明城市生活垃圾焚烧过程中重金属分布和迁移特征,采集贵州遵义市3个城市生活垃圾焚烧场的进场垃圾、渗滤液、飞灰、底渣和烟气样品,采用ICP-AES分析了城市生活垃圾各组分中Cu、Pb、Zn、Ni、Cd、Cr和Hg重金属含量,研究其重金属的分布和迁移特征,为实现生活垃圾焚烧无害化处理提供基础数据。研究结果表明,(1)生活垃圾渗滤液中Zn、Ni、Cu和Pb含量较高,各重金属含量基本表现为垃圾场二垃圾场一垃圾场三,各组分重金属含量基本表现为ZnCuNiPbCrCdHg。(2)底渣中Cu、Zn、Cr含量较高,Cd和Hg含量较低,飞灰中Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr含量较高,Hg含量较低。(3)底渣和飞灰重金属浸出含量均未超标,其中Pb和Cu属于潜在污染,烟气排放含量低于0.2 mg·kg~(-1),Cr、Cu、Ni和Zn重金属在烟气中均无检出。(4)重金属向渗滤液的迁移相对较弱(低于1%),底渣、飞灰和烟气等与焚烧相关的产物是重金属的主要迁移途径,Cu、Ni、Cr、Zn主要迁移至底渣中,Pb和Cd主要迁移至底渣和飞灰中,Hg主要迁移至飞灰和烟气中(27.1%~34.6%随烟气排出),综上可知,生活垃圾中Hg的治理和脱毒仍需要进一步提高。     

红枫湖水源地附近粉煤灰堆积场重金属存在形态及静态淋溶规律

酸雨对露天粉煤灰堆积场的淋滤作用导致周围环境产生重金属污染是一种广泛现象.为研究酸雨对贵阳市水源地红枫湖周边一大型粉煤灰堆积场的重金属迁移影响,本文以这一粉煤灰堆积场为研究对象,通过静态淋溶实验探讨了粉煤灰中Cr、Ni、CU、Zn、AS、Cd、Pb等7种重金属元素的含量、存在形态、淋溶时间、堆积时间、粒度对重金属溶出规律的影响.结果表明,粉煤灰中Ni、Cu、Zn、Pb、As和Cd等6种重金属的含量随堆积时间增加而增大,Cr含量变化与上述反之;在淋溶实验中,堆积时间的增加使Cr、Ni、Cu和Zn重金属元素的可溶态减小;在淋溶第28—48天期间,Cr、Ni和Cu元素溶出浓度降低的粒度顺序为细粒度>中粒度和粗粒度、Cd元素溶出浓度降低的粒度顺序为中粒度>粗粒度>细粒度.本研究对红枫湖水源地和周边地下水的重金属防控提供一定的参考依据.     

成都市城乡结合部大气水中重金属污染特征

通过对成都市城乡结合部的大气水进行定点周期性采集和监测,并采用火焰原子吸收光谱法和原子荧光光度法测定样品中表征大气水样受污染程度的重金属含量,包括Cu、Pb、Fe、Mn、Zn、Cd、Hg、As、Cr等9种重金属元素。分析结果表明,成都市城乡结合部大气水中主要污染重金属元素为Cu、Zn、As、Hg、Fe,其中Hg、As含量在秋冬季以及阴雨雾霾的特殊天气条件下尤其高,东郊监测最高As浓度为12.86mg/L,西郊监测Hg浓度高达17.55mg/L。从区域污染程度上说,西郊大气水重金属污染较为严重,东郊较之稍轻。     

不同粒径垃圾焚烧飞灰中重金属富集特性表征

针对杭州市生活垃圾焚烧飞灰按粒径级别进行其重金属特性表征,主要展开飞灰组成元素和矿物成分、重金属含量分布、以及重金属与飞灰颗粒的微观结合行为等研究.结果表明,＂SiO2-CaO-Al2O3-金属氧化物＂体系构成了重金属的富集载体;Zn、Pb、Cu、Mn、Ni、Cr、Sb等重金属在75—125μm飞灰颗粒中的占有率最高,达52%;Zn、Cu、Cr随着粒径减小其含量显著增加,其它重金属未见此趋势;通过SEM-EDX对飞灰颗粒表面和断面进行扫描电镜观察和面、线扫描元素能谱分析,在飞灰断面发现了更多类型、更密集的重金属分布.通过结合XRF、ICP-MS、SEM-EDX等仪器手段分析飞灰中重金属富集特性,深入探索重金属在飞灰颗粒中富集特征.     

应用物种敏感性分布评估重金属对海洋生物的生态风险

应用生态风险评价中的物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distributions,SSD)方法构建了8种常见重金属元素(As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Mn、Pb、Zn)对海洋生物的SSD曲线。在此基础上计算了8种重金属对海洋生物的5%危害浓度(HC5)及其不同暴露浓度对海洋生物的潜在影响比例(PAF),比较了海洋脊椎动物和无脊椎动物对8种重金属的敏感性以及不同重金属的急性生态风险。结果表明,重金属对甲壳类的生态风险均比鱼类大。8种重金属元素对所研究的海洋生物全部物种的HC5值的排序为Pb>Mn>Zn>Cr>Cu>Hg>Cd>As。暴露浓度小于10μg·L-1时,Cr和Hg的生态风险差异不大。在10μg·L-1的暴露浓度下,As、Cd、Cu和Hg均使全部物种中超过10%的生物受到影响。随着浓度升高,不同重金属的生态风险有不同幅度的增大,当浓度达到1000μg·L-1时,分别有82.49%、87.31%和85.90%的物种受到As、Cu和Hg的损害。不同生物的敏感性顺序会随重金属的浓度范围发生变化。     

环境条件对采矿废石中重金属溶出特性的影响

采矿废石中的重金属元素会由于废石长时间的露天堆放,受到风化、雨水侵蚀等的作用而释放出来,从而对环境产生一定的危害.以广西某锡钽铌多金属矿区采矿废石为研究对象,对采矿废石样品进行了性质鉴别,并考察了pH、温度和离子强度等环境条件对采矿废石中铅、砷、镉等重金属溶出的影响.结果表明:实验所选取的废石样品为第I类的一般工业固体废物.采矿废石中的铜、铅、镍在pH=4,镉和锌在pH=5,而砷在pH=6的条件下溶出较为明显;重金属元素砷,锌,铜,铅在离子强度为1 ms?cm-1时,浸出浓度最大,而镍和镉元素则是在0.1 ms?cm-1时出较多;砷,镉和铜在温度为35℃,镍元素在30℃,铅元素在25℃的条件下溶出质量浓度达到最大值,而锌元素的浸出质量浓度受温度的影响较小.     

喀斯特山区燃煤型电厂周边农业土壤中重金属的污染特征及评价

以喀斯特山区燃煤型电厂周边不同方向的土壤及农作物为研究对象,探讨了火电厂周边随距电厂水平方向、垂直剖面土壤中8种重金属总量及污染分布特征,并分析了土壤中重金属元素之间及其与p H、有机质的相关性。结果表明,与贵州省土壤背景值相比,土壤样品中除了Cd和Cr之外,其它元素均有不同程度的超标现象,以Hg元素的超标最为严重;土壤中大多数重金属元素主要以残渣态为主,而Cd主要以酸可提取态和可还原态存在,容易发生环境迁移;土壤剖面中重金属含量均表现为20~50 cm土层大于0~20 cm,土壤重金属在次表层出现富集现象。相关分析表明,除了Zn以外,其它元素间的相关关系较高,p H与土壤Hg、As、Cu元素之间存在正相关关系,有机质与As、Ni之间也存在着显著正相关,电厂不同方向上的p H变化与8种重金属含量变化的差异相一致。采用内梅罗综合污染指数法进行环境污染评价,发现电厂周围土壤中的重金属含量具有方向性,不同方向上的污染程度表现为正北西南东北东南西北正东。对比农业土壤采样点,森林土壤中的Hg、Pb和Ni含量明显较低,推测森林植被可能对电厂重金属的沉降有一定的减缓作用;电厂周边研究区内卷心菜的Hg、Pb、Ni元素的超标最为严重,而卷心菜对Cd元素的富集能力明显高于其它重金属。     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.