Urban sprawl and air quality in large US cities

This study presents the results of a paper of urban spatial structure and exceedances of the 8-h national ambient air quality standard for ozone in 45 large US metropolitan regions. Through the integration of a published index of sprawl with metropolitan level data on annual ozone exceedances, precursor emissions, and regional climate over a 13-year period, the association between the extent of urban decentralization and the average number of ozone exceedances per year, while controlling for precursor emissions and temperature, is measured. The results of this analysis support the hypothesis that large metropolitan regions ranking highly on a quantitative index of sprawl experience a greater number of ozone exceedances than more spatially compact metropolitan regions. Importantly, this relationship was found to hold when controlling for population size, average ozone season temperatures, and regional emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, suggesting that urban spatial structure may have effects on ozone formation that are independent of its effects on precursor emissions from transportation, industry, and power generation facilities.     

Multi-objective analysis of ground-level ozone concentration control

To develop sound air quality plans, regional authorities should have instruments that link the complex behaviour of pollutants both in time and space with costs of emission reduction. The problem is particularly important for ground level ozone which forms kilometres away, hours later from the emission of its precursors. To approach this problem, a method (1) to identify local pollutant-precursor models on the basis of results from a large photochemical model (CALGRID), (2) to integrate them in a multi-objective mathematical program, together with an estimate of the emission reduction costs, is suggested. The method has been used to assess action priorities in Lombardy (Northern Italy). This area, characterised by a complex terrain, high urban and industrial emissions and a dense road network is often affected by severe photochemical pollution episodes during summer.     

攀枝花市区及盐边县城区城市臭氧污染状况研究

攀枝花市区臭氧污染负荷逐年上升,盐边县城区近年来臭氧污染负荷均高于20%,臭氧污染已成为影响城市空气质量的重要因素。对2017年1月~2020年2月攀枝花市区和盐边县城区臭氧污染物浓度时空变化规律和相关性进行了研究,并结合攀枝花各地太阳能和天气网记录的气象数据,统计了太阳辐射强度、紫外线辐射强度、日最高气温、日平均风向、季节气候等气象要素与出现臭氧污染的概率。研究表明,攀枝花市区和盐边县城区两地春、夏季较易出现臭氧污染,春季臭氧浓度持续高值时数最多,夏季臭氧浓度持续高值影响时数次之,两地臭氧污染物浓度变化有极强相关性。此外,臭氧浓度与气象条件密切关系,当紫外辐射强度大于30W/m²时,臭氧污染的几率为5%~8%,最高日气温值29℃~36℃之间时易出现臭氧污染,攀枝花市区臭氧污染受西向气流影响最重,盐边县城区臭氧污染受南向气流影响最重,盐边城区臭氧污染主要受攀枝花市区影响。根据臭氧污染物浓度时空变化规律和气象条件,开展区域臭氧前体物排放调控,将有效改善地区环境空气质量。     

Sensitivity analysis of ground-level ozone concentration to emission changes in two urban regions of southeast Texas

Air pollutant emission is one of the predominant factors affecting urban air quality such as ground-level ozone formation. This paper assesses the impact of changing emission inventory scenarios, based on combinations of point, mobile, area/non-road and biogenic sources, on the tropospheric ozone concentration in two southeast Texas urban areas, i.e. Houston-Galveston and Beaumont-Port Arthur, during the rapid ozone formation event (ROFE) on August 25, 2000. The EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system with 1999 national emission inventory (NEI99) estimates and updated SAPRC99 chemical mechanism are used in the sensitivity analysis for twelve different emission scenarios. Based on model results, it is found that the point source emission of NOx and VOC contributes the greatest ozone peak in the ROFE. Removing Texas point sources of VOC and NOx emission from the inventory results in a reduction in peak O3 concentration by 128 and 70 ppbv in Houston urban area, respectively. Similar but less drastic impact from point source is also observed in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. The effect on peak ozone concentration due to mobile, area and non-road sources emissions are less significant compared to that of point source emission. Reducing VOC emission appears to be more effective than reducing NOx emission in lowering peak O3 concentration in the studied region. Although biogenic emission can contribute up to 37 ppbv of peak ozone level over a large area, the affected area is away from the urban region of concern, and should not be the main cause for O3 non-attainment in the two urban areas. Removing CO emission from mobile sources does not lead to significant reduction (< 1 ppbv) in ozone concentrations. The modeled data also show that the transport of O3 precursors from adjacent states can cause a significant ozone plume near Beaumont due to its proximity to the state border based on the conditions during the August 25, 2000 O3 episode.     

山西省城乡统筹发展效率的DEA分析

基于2009年山西省11个地级市城乡统筹发展的面板数据,运用数据包络分析（DEA）评价了各区域的城乡统筹发展效率,对其空间差异变化特征与规律进行了分析。结果表明,山西省城乡统筹发展效率总体上呈＂中部较高,普遍分化＂的分布特征,并存在两大＂DEA有效＂集群。自改革开放以来,山西省逐渐形成了中、东、西三大经济地带,即中部盆地区、东部山地区和西部高原丘陵区。规模效率是当前制约山西省城乡统筹发展综合效率的主要方面。全省普遍存在投入冗余现象,可通过优化环境、产业结构高级化、突出特色产业、提升产业技术、提高劳动力素质和城市化水平等途径来提高区域的城乡统筹发展效率。各区域之间城乡统筹发展效率的空间差异显著;对2009年山西省11个地级市进行相对效率分析,得出相对有效值为1的城市居多,北部朔州市和南端运城市相对效率差异明显,最后提出了相关政策建议。     

Growth Management in the Vancouver Region

The Vancouver Region is widely recognised as one North American jurisdiction where strong growth management plans and policies have been put in place in order to control urban sprawl. While many authors have lauded the region for its good planning intentions, there has been little in the way of assessment of actual performance. This paper attempts to identify some quantitative growth management goals that have been (officially and unofficially) espoused by planning authorities in the region, and to measure these against actual trends. The results are mixed: on the one hand, some key growth management goals adopted by the region are not ambitious compared with existing trends and even these goals are not being met. For instance, the supposedly compact scenario adopted by the region deviates hardly at all from existing growth trends, which regional planners had clearly identified as untenable and requiring drastic change. On the other hand, the region's goal of preserving extensive green areas has been achieved without being watered down during goal formulation or implementation. Whereas these findings may appear contradictory, they are not: conservation in the region has not compromised the potential for growth in the region--at least for the time being. The real test of regional growth management efforts will come in the near future when further expansion meets the 'green wall' on the periphery and NIMBY resistance against densification within existing urban areas. The study suggests that the current structure of regional planning, relying on a partnership between municipal and regional governments, has served the region fairly well in building support for the need for growth management and in elaborating growth management vision. However, there is serious doubt about the ability of this system to set ambitious growth management objectives and to see through the implementation of those objectives in the face of social forces attempting to preserve business-as-usual trends in the region.     

The cost of crop damage caused by ozone air pollution from motor vehicles

The effects of ozone air pollution on the agricultural sector are an important environmental challenge facing policy makers. Most studies of the economic impact of air pollution on agriculture have found that a 25% reduction in ambient ozone would provide benefits of at least $1–2 billion annually in the United States. This paper extends existing research by estimating the benefits of a reduction in emissions from a major source of ozone formation: motor-vehicle emissions. An agricultural production model is combined with an analysis of motor-vehicle emissions and air quality to estimate the impacts of emissions from six different motor-vehicle classes, at both the regional and national level. The benefits to the agricultural sector from completely eliminating ozone precursor emissions from motor vehicles ranges between $3·5 and $6·1 billion annually.     

USE OF THE KRIGING METHOD FOR STUDYING CHARACTERISTICS OF GROUND WATER DROUGHTS1

round water drought events were derived by taking a truncation level through the time series of daily ground water depth that are recorded elevation differences between the water table and land surface at a well site. Droughts of various truncation levels at 70, 80, 90, and 95 percent, were obtained, where a 70 percent truncation level means that 70 percent of ground water depth data are less than or equal to the truncated value. The conditional probability that a drought occurring at a certain truncation level will prolong and advance to that of the next higher level was estimated. The regionalization analysis was conducted assuming that conditional probabilities estimated at selected wells are regionalized variables. Contour lines of conditional probabilities for each truncation level were constructed to express their spatial variability in the region. Estimation errors associated with the regionalization were reasonably small.     

Growth Management in the Vancouver Region

The Vancouver Region is widely recognised as one North American jurisdiction where strong growth management plans and policies have been put in place in order to control urban sprawl. While many authors have lauded the region for its good planning intentions, there has been little in the way of assessment of actual performance. This paper attempts to identify some quantitative growth management goals that have been (officially and unofficially) espoused by planning authorities in the region, and to measure these against actual trends. The results are mixed: on the one hand, some key growth management goals adopted by the region are not ambitious compared with existing trends and even these goals are not being met. For instance, the supposedly compact scenario adopted by the region deviates hardly at all from existing growth trends, which regional planners had clearly identified as untenable and requiring drastic change. On the other hand, the region's goal of preserving extensive green areas has been achieved without being watered down during goal formulation or implementation. Whereas these findings may appear contradictory, they are not: conservation in the region has not compromised the potential for growth in the region—at least for the time being. The real test of regional growth management efforts will come in the near future when further expansion meets the 'green wall' on the periphery and NIMBY resistance against densification within existing urban areas. The study suggests that the current structure of regional planning, relying on a partnership between municipal and regional governments, has served the region fairly well in building support for the need for growth management and in elaborating growth management vision. However, there is serious doubt about the ability of this system to set ambitious growth management objectives and to see through the implementation of those objectives in the face of social forces attempting to preserve business-as-usual trends in the region.     

Long memory and chaotic models of prices on the London Metal Exchange

Many financial time series exhibit irregular behaviour. Economic theory suggests that this irregular behaviour might be due to the existence of nonlinear dependence in the markets. Thus, economic time series are governed by nonlinear dynamics.The purpose of this paper is to investigate price behaviour in the London Metal Exchange market. Thus, this study will test the two most attractive nonlinear models—long memory and chaos—on six metal commodities to ascertain which model is consistent with the observed metal price nonlinear dynamics.Application of long memory and chaos analysis provides new approaches for assessing the behaviour of metal prices. We identified, in tin, a case of chaos. Our empirical results in the case of aluminium support the long memory hypothesis. A short memory model explains the underlying processes of the nickel and lead returns series, while zinc returns reflect an anti-persistent process. To our knowledge, this is one of the first attempts to apply long memory and chaos analysis in the evaluation of the behaviour of metal prices.     

GROUND WATER DROUGHT MANAGEMENT BY A FEEDFORWARD CONTROL METHOD1

ABSTRACT: Management of a regional ground water system to mitigate drought problems at the multi‐layered aquifer system in Collier County, Florida, is the main topic. This paper developed a feedforward control system that consists of system and control equations. The system equation, which forecasts ground water levels using the current measurements, was built based on the Kalman filter algorithm associated with a stochastic time series model. The role of the control equation is to estimate the pumping reduction rate during an anticipated drought. The control equation was built based on the empirical relationship between the change in ground water levels and the corresponding pumping requirement. The control system starts with forecasting one‐month‐ahead ground water head at each control point. The forecasted head is in turn used to calculate the deviation of ground water heads from the monthly target specified by a 2‐in‐10‐year frequency. When the forecasted water level is lower than the target, the control system computes spatially‐varied pumping reduction rates as a recommendation for ground water users. The proposed control system was tested using hypothetical droughts. The simulation result revealed that the estimated pumping reduction rates are highly variable in space, strongly supporting the idea of spatial forecasting and controlling of ground water levels as opposed to a lumped water use restriction method used previously in the model area.     

SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS IN GROUND WATER LEVEL1

ABSTRACT: Water level data at 16 ground water wells and two sea water gauging stations, coupled with barometric measurements in an alluvial plain in the central‐west region of Taiwan, are analyzed using spectral analysis in the time and frequency domains. The semi‐diurnal component from water level station is observed to be the most noticeable signal while the diurnal component is the less distinct signal recorded at the water level stations. Both semidiurnal and diurnal components are coupled with atmospheric pressure measurements. From the atmospheric pressure data, spectral analysis indicates that both the raw and the pressure adjusted water levels are almost in phase and retain the same amplitude in this area. It implies that the effect of pressure variations is not significant for the sea water and ground water level nearby; the astronomical tidal components, as expected, are the main factor causing fluctuation of ocean water and ground water levels in the Choshuihsi alluvial plain.     

GROUND WATER/SURFACE WATER RESPONSES TO GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS,SANTA CLARA‐CALLEGUAS BASIN,VENTURA, CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara‐Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate‐driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM‐RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM‐RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.     

Assessment of ambient ozone effects on vegetation using snap bean as a bioindicator species

Tropospheric ozone is an air pollutant that is toxic to plants, causing visible injury to foliage and a reduction in growth and yield. The use of plant bioindicators is one approach to assess the ozone impacts in diverse geographical areas. The objective of this study was to evaluate snap bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) as a potential bioindicator species. Three snap bean genotypes known to exhibit a range of ozone sensitivity were grown in pots under charcoal-filtered (CF) or nonfiltered (NF) treatments in open-top chambers, or under ambient air (AA) conditions. Treatment effects on biomass were not significant at 56 days after planting (DAP), but midseason foliar injury increased in the NF and AA treatments relative to CF controls. An increase in ozone from 25 to 30 nL L(-1) in CF controls to approximately 50 nL L(-1) in the NF and AA treatments was found to suppress final pod dry weight per plant by 40 to 60% in the most sensitive genotype S156. The same treatments suppressed final pod dry weight by 20 to 30% in a moderately sensitive genotype Oregon-91, and by 10% or less in a tolerant genotype R123. An S156 to R123 yield ratio of approximately one was observed under CF conditions. The S156 to R123 yield ratio declined to 0.6 to 0.7 in the NF treatment and declined further to 0.4 to 0.5 in the AA treatment, suggesting that ozone impact was underestimated in the open-top chambers. The results suggest that a snap bean bioindicator system has the potential to detect ambient ozone effects at present-day ozone concentrations.     

攀枝花市城市基础设施与土地收益关联度分析

以攀枝花市为例,综合运用GIS空间分析技术和变异系数权重分析、灰色关联度等方法建立了城市基础设施与土地收益的关联度模型,定量分析城市基础设施与土地收益的关联关系,揭示两者间的关联规律和作用机理.结果表明：①城市基础与土地收益存在较大关联性;②城市基础设施与土地收益关联度在时间序列上具有明显的波动性且呈周期性变化;③城市基础设施与土地收益关联度在空间上呈分异特征.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the current assessment of climate impacts on water resources, including aquatic ecosystems, agricultural demands, and water management, in the U.S. Great Plains. Climate change in the region may have profound effects on agricultural users, aquatic ecosystems, and urban and industrial users alike. In the central Great Plains Region, the potential impacts of climate changes include changes in winter snowfall and snow-melt, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperature, and summer time average temperature. Specifically, results from general circulation models indicate that both annual average temperatures and total annual precipitation will increase over the region. However, the seasonal patterns are not uniform. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region. Research is needed to better address the current competition among the water needs of agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems, and then to look at potential changes. These diverse demands on water needs in this region compound the difficulty in managing water use and projecting the impact of climate changes among the various critical sectors in this region.     

If not here,then perhaps not anywhere: urban growth management as a tool for sustainability planning in British Columbia's capital regional district

In 1995 the provincial government of British Columbia, Canada, passed new legislation encouraging regional districts to prepare Regional Growth Strategies. The strategies were to be means of coordinating municipal action on regional issues. They were also meant to facilitate pursuit of sustainability objectives, including reducing urban sprawl, protecting environmentally sensitive areas, providing affordable housing and decreasing pollution. This paper examines the experience so far in one region that chose to prepare a growth strategy: the Capital Regional District (CRD) at the south end of Vancouver Island. Growth‐management planning in the CRD has been and remains both critical and difficult. The region expects a substantial population increase over the next couple of decades and has a limited land base for urban expansion. Many citizens recognise that their quality of life is high, but vulnerable and, as a result, public support for effective growth management is stronger in the CRD than in many other provincial growth areas. However, BC does not have a tradition of strong regional governance and the CRD as a regional authority is the creature of sixteen municipalities and electoral areas. Seven years into the process, effective growth management still faces substantial challenges, including the persistent jurisdictional protectionism of CRD municipalities. Nevertheless, there have been positive achievements and an admirable diversity of individuals, organisations and initiatives continue to push municipal and regional officials towards a more sustainable future.     

If not here, then perhaps not anywhere: urban growth management as a tool for sustainability planning in British Columbia's capital regional district

In 1995 the provincial government of British Columbia, Canada, passed new legislation encouraging regional districts to prepare Regional Growth Strategies. The strategies were to be means of coordinating municipal action on regional issues. They were also meant to facilitate pursuit of sustainability objectives, including reducing urban sprawl, protecting environmentally sensitive areas, providing affordable housing and decreasing pollution. This paper examines the experience so far in one region that chose to prepare a growth strategy: the Capital Regional District (CRD) at the south end of Vancouver Island. Growth-management planning in the CRD has been and remains both critical and difficult. The region expects a substantial population increase over the next couple of decades and has a limited land base for urban expansion. Many citizens recognise that their quality of life is high, but vulnerable and, as a result, public support for effective growth management is stronger in the CRD than in many other provincial growth areas. However, BC does not have a tradition of strong regional governance and the CRD as a regional authority is the creature of sixteen municipalities and electoral areas. Seven years into the process, effective growth management still faces substantial challenges, including the persistent jurisdictional protectionism of CRD municipalities. Nevertheless, there have been positive achievements and an admirable diversity of individuals, organisations and initiatives continue to push municipal and regional officials towards a more sustainable future.     

我国三大地区城市发展现状及差异

通过采用相关年份有关城市方面的资料,从城市化水平,城市数量、体系和空间分布,城市社会经济发展状况,城市设施水平和城市经济效益5个方面,比较分析了我国三大地区城市发展现状,总结了我国三大地区的特征和城市发展差异,指出今后要积极缩小三大地区间的城市发展差距,推进区域经济的协调发展和可持续发展.     

Application of Index Procedures to Flood Frequency Analysis in Turkey1

Abstract: This study investigates the regional analysis of annual maximum flood series of 48 stream gauging stations in the basins of the West Mediterranean Region in Turkey. The region is divided into three homogeneous subregions according to both Student‐t test and Dalrymple homogeneity test. The regional relationships of mean annual flood per unit area‐drainage area and coefficient of skew‐coefficient of variation are obtained. Two statistically meaningful relationships of the mean flood per unit area‐drainage area and a unique relationship between skewness and variation coefficients exist. Results show that the index‐flood method may be applicable to each homogenous subregion to estimate flood quantiles in the study area.