THE OPTIMAL TIME TO START THE OPERATION OF A DESALTING PLANT IN ISRAEL1

The study contains the methodology of finding the optimal time to start the operation of a desalting plant or any other non conventional source of water for agricultural use in Israel. The essence of the methodology is the moving equilibrium price and quantity of agricultural products. The market of agricultural products is represented by a single demand curve and a supply curve which is derived from the agricultural sector production function. Both the demand for and the supply of agricultural products functions are shifting over time. The marginal value product of water is the critical value that determines the optimal time of a desalting plant. The study is static in the sense that dynamic aspects per se are not dealt with-e.g. learning by doing of building and operating desalting plants. The empirical results although used for illustrative purposes can be used as reference points for other detailed and more ‘exact’ studies on water desalination.     

Taxation of uranium mining in Canada and Australia

The objective of this paper is to compare the nature of the taxation schemes facing uranium mine operators in Australia's Northern Territory and in Canada's Province of Saskatchewan. The findings demonstrate that, although the Canadian system appropriates up to 85% of incremental sales revenue, it is extremely sensitive to industry profitability. Its Australian counterpart is, in contrast, a regressive scheme which, at the current selling price of yellowcake, captures a significantly larger proportion of available economic rent.     

World phosphate supply

The Bureau of Mines investigated the resources, costs, capacities, market relationships, and short- and long-run supply of phosphate rock and phosphoric acid. The 206 mines and deposits evaluated in 30 market economy countries (MECs) contain an estimated 35.1 billion tonnes of recoverable phosphate rock (demonstrated resource level). US resources are sufficient to satisfy both the domestic market and an export market for phosphate products well beyond 2000. Resource depletion at current producers, however, means new property development (with higher costs) will be required if US production levels are to be maintained. Existing worldwide capacity can satisfy expected demand through the early 1990s. Expansion at existing mines or low demand growth could mean no new property development is required before the late 1990s. Worldwide, almost $8 billion could be required for the development of new phosphate rock properties between now and 2000, given 3% annual growth in demand. Though profit may not be the principal motivation for development of government-owned operations, most properties that could develop in the 1990s would require price increases of 20–50% to break even. To earn a 15% rate of return on investment, prices must rise to nearly double the $23–271 tonne US price level of 1988. Current US phosphate rock and phosphoric acid producers appear to be competitive (on a variable cost basis) with many other suppliers in major markets. New US properties will have higher variable costs than current producers; however, they are competitive with most projected new foreign development. The US phosphoric acid industry will most likely face increased competition as more of the foreign phosphate rock producers develop the capacity to process rock into phosphoric acid and other fertilizer products.     

基于市场机制的农产品生态敏感度识别与政策建议——以云南西双版纳为例

关于生态农业的研究,已经在农学、生物学、地理学等领域积累了丰硕的成果。但是,这些研究大都着眼于生态农业的生产过程,即更多关注供给的角度,而很少从需求的角度来分析。本文从市场机制的角度出发,构建了消费者偏好与生产者策略的"传导模型",依据消费者对农产品生态敏感度的不同对其进行区分。对于"生态不敏感"的农产品,消费者对产品的生态敏感度低,这一偏好通过价格信号传导到生产者,使生产者采取大规模标准化的生产策略,对生态环境造成损耗;对于"生态强敏感"的农产品,消费者对产品的生态敏感度高,这一偏好能够通过价格信号传导到生产者,并使生产者采取生态化生产的策略,是绿色可持续的;对于"生态弱敏感"的农产品,市场存在分层现象,使得上述两种传导机制同时并存。消费者的偏好与愿意支付的溢价,生产者采用生态化生产方式的成本,以及证明产品品质的交易费用,是决定农产品生产能否在市场环境下自发实现绿色可持续的三个关键环节。培育绿色消费观念、提高生态农业的产出、健全产品质量监督体系是促进生态农业发展的三个着力点。     

Gold demand and supply

Western mine production of gold has been declining in the past five years — at the same time as the price of gold has risen dramatically. Predictions of a continued high demand for gold and the current US interest in adopting some form of ‘gold standard’ have focused attention on the supply of new gold. This paper discusses the structure of gold supply and demand, the present pattern of production of new gold and the possible effect of future price changes on Western gold mine production in the 1980s.     

协议出让国有土地使用权最低价的确定方法

合理确定协议出让国有土地使用权的最低价,是促进经济与社会发展,防止土地资产流失的重要措施．本文以国家土地管理局的有关现定为依据,在阐述基准地价内涵、基准地价与国有土地使用权出让价相互关系的基础上,探讨了协议出让国有土地使用权最低价的具体确定方法,并将它初步应用在山西省祁县城区土地使用权协议出让最低限价的确定中．     

A note on empty bottles

This note examines the second-order conditions of the Massel-Parrish (M-P) model of a beverage market in which a monopolist producer of beverages packaged in ‘private mould’ bottles has monopsony power in the market for the empty bottles. Customers pay only the shelf price if they return the empty bottle; and, the shelf price plus the forfeited deposit if they discard it. The analysis determines directional changes in the optimal shelf price, deposit levels, and unit sales resulting from changes in each of five demand and three supply parameters. Potential effects of current legislation requiring mandatory deposits on all beverage containers are also analysed.     

RISK IN IRRIGATION WATER SUPPLY AND THE EFFECTS ON FOOD PRODUCTION1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines irrigation water supply deficit and associated risk indicators due to random climate events and potential effects on irrigated food production during the period 1996 to 2025 for seven river basins in the USA, China, and India. An integrated water and food model with global scope is applied for the analysis. The global climate regime during 1961 to 1990 is used to generate 30 climatic scenarios for the time period 1996 to 2025, and these scenarios are applied to the model in order to characterize the randomness of precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration, which affects both irrigation water supply and demand. The risk with random climate events is represented by reliability, variability, and vulnerability from different perspectives. Regarding irrigation water supply, Colorado will bear an increasingly unstable situation although the average water supply relative to the demand will maintain at a relatively high level; selected basins in China and India indicate that significantly lower levels of reliability and more deleterious affects from drought can be expected, but under a less variable condition due to assumed water storage increase. From 1996 to 2025, the effects of water deficits on irrigated food production are characterized with a nonlinear phenomenon and food production loss will be more sensitive to irrigation water supply deficit in the future. Future work following this paper needs to consider the impact of global climate change and the water quality of the irrigation return flow and result verification by local studies.     

Factor demand flexibility in the primary aluminium industry: Evidence from stagnating and expanding regions

The purpose of the paper is to analyse and compare short-run factor demand responses to price changes in the primary aluminium industry in Western Europe and the Africa-Middle East (AME) region. We outline a Translog variable cost function model, which is estimated employing a panel data set at the individual smelter level over the time period 1990-2003. The empirical results show evidence of limited - but far from insignificant - price-induced factor demand responses in the short-run. Overall aluminium smelters in the AME-region show evidence of higher estimated short-run own- and cross-price elasticities than their competitors in Western Europe, at least when it comes to labour and electricity demand. One important reason for this result is the greater number of pot lines with slightly different technologies at each smelter as well as the more intense use of the Prebake technology in the AME-region making retrofits in existing plants less costly than in Western Europe. The results also suggest that in both regions the demand for electricity has over time become less sensitive to short-run price changes, while the labour and material demand responses to price changes have increased but only in the AME-region. The liberalisation of the Western European electricity markets in combination with the rigid labour markets in this part of the world suggest that the shift in production capacity from the western world to the AME-region as well as China may continue.     

Impact of different public E&P policies on natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan

Low wellhead domestic gas prices over the past few years have led to the beginning of a shortage in natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan. Gas demand steadily rises in all sectors for being an economical fuel as compare to substitutes. In the view of foregoing consumption trend, the demand for gas is expected to grow with a higher pace during the 2010s. On the contrary, indigenous gas reserves are running out and cannot keep up with the demand. This paper examines the extent of upstream activities in different petroleum policy regimes. The wellhead price for indigenous gas is compared with the prices of alternatives (for example, gas import prices). In order to put the problem in perspective, the relationship between wellhead gas price and cumulative gas reserves in Pakistan are analyzed and we find that the looming gas shortage can be ameliorated in the short-run and eliminated in the long-run through incentivized wellhead price. To put it briefly, the idea is mooted to first take advantage of huge domestic reserves to ensure competitive consumer prices for gas. The findings are applicable to several other economies with under-developed natural resources.     

RURAL RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND: AN ECONOMETRIC AND SIMULATION ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: This study proposes that demand management through pricing policies can be used in conjunction with supply management to solve water supply problems. Economic principles are shown to apply to rural residential water use. A demand function for water was developed based on cross-sectional water use data collected in Kentucky. Price was found to be a significant determinant of the quantity of water demanded. A constant price elasticity of -0.92 was found. The demand function was used in a simulation analysis to determine reservoir capacity needed to supply water needs of a rural community. The simulation revealed that price can significantly affect required reservoir storage.     

A simple mineral market model: Can it produce super cycles in prices?

This paper develops a stylized supply–demand model for a mineral/nonrenewable commodity. It embodies important distinctions between short-run and long-run mineral supply and the derived demand for minerals as intermediate goods in production sectors with differing intensities of use. This framework is used to address the question: under what conditions might one expect to observe super cycles (i.e. cycles with a period of 20–70 years) in minerals prices? A plausible time path for GDP$GDP$ growth and the structural transformation that accompanies economic development in an emerging region is specified. Using these drivers and reasonable supply and demand parameters, price dynamics are simulated. The result is an asymmetric price cycle with a peak price that is about 250% above trend and an expansion phase that lasts for about 20 years. Thus, this simple model is capable of producing a single cycle with a frequency and amplitude in the range estimated in the empirical literature on super cycles. As other regions reach the development ‘take-off' phase, additional super cycles should emerge.     

Meeting Heterogeneity in Consumer Demand for Animal Welfare: A Reflection on Existing Knowledge and Implications for the Meat Sector

The legitimacy of the dominant intensive meat production system with respect to the issue of animal welfare is increasingly being questioned by stakeholders across the meat supply chain. The current meat supply is highly undifferentiated, catering only for the extremes of morality concerns (i.e., conventional vs. organic meat products). However, a latent need for compromise products has been identified. That is, consumer differences exist regarding the trade-offs they make between different aspects associated with meat consumption. The heterogeneity in consumer demand could function as a starting point for market segmentation, targeting and positioning regarding animal welfare concepts that are differentiated in terms of animal welfare and price levels. Despite this, stakeholders in the meat supply chain seem to be trapped in the dominant business model focused on low cost prices. This paper aims to identify conflicting interests that stakeholders in the meat supply chain experience in order to increase understanding of why heterogeneous consumer preferences are not met by a more differentiated supply of meat products produced at different levels of animal welfare standards. In addition, characteristics of the supply chain that contribute to the existence of high exit barriers and difficulty to shift to more animal-friendly production systems are identified. Following the analysis of conflicting interests among stakeholders and factors that contribute to difficulty to transform the existing dominant regime, different routes are discussed that may help and motivate stakeholders to overcome these barriers and stimulate the creation of new markets.     

Dynamic metals demand model

Studies by Nutting, Jacobson and Evans and Georgentalis et al. have all concluded, using panel data sets, that a number of metals appear to share a common demand curve that is stable over time. However, these studies have a number of theoretical and econometric limitations. This paper addresses these concerns and reassesses the hypothesis that some metals share such a common demand curve with the same price elasticity of demand. This is achieved within the framework of a random coefficients model. This model was applied to a dynamic metals demand function (DLR) and various estimation techniques were used including OLS, IV, Empirical Bayes (EB) and Instrumental Variables Empirical Bayes (IV-EB). It was found that each metal had its own individual short run demand function with statistically different own price and industrial activity elasticities of demand. In the long run, each metal appeared to be equally unresponsive to price changes, but had different industrial activity elasticities. The speeds of price adjustment to periods of market disequilibrium differed substantially between metals.     

Changing Trends in World Metal Demand: The Case of Tin

This paper examines the changing trends in world tin demand for the period 1962–1985. In the early 1970s tin production peaked, and has since declined. The reasons for the decline are examined in terms of changes in product composition of income (i.e. mix of goods and services), changes in material composition of products, decline in gross domestic investment and the rising price of tin.     

Managing Congestion: Economics of Price and Lottery Rationing

It is not uncommon for the carrying capacity for congestible facilities to be estimated before the allocation method is known. This paper shows how efficient capacity differs between two competing resource allocation mechanisms, one which is efficient (price) and one which is fair (lottery). The welfare theoretic implications of adopting lottery allocation rather than price allocation are illustrated from the perspectives of economic efficiency and the benefits obtained by resource users and suppliers. It is found that risk-neutral resource users will always prefer lottery allocation to price allocation. While price allocation is efficient, it is never in risk-neutral resource users» interests to have price allocation imposed. Conclusions are tested using a linear constant crowding demand function, in which case it is found that the efficient capacity for lottery rationing exceeds the efficient capacity where price is to be used to allocate a congestible resource. Objectives may be better met by joint use of allocation mechanisms, the implications of which are investigated using the linear demand model.     

The role of co-products in stabilizing the metal mining industry

The objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis that cyclical metal mining activity is more stable when multi-metal products are produced. A theoretical short-run supply curve for a metal is developed showing by-product, co-product, and main product behaviour. This curve is used to illustrate co-product pricing trends that are indicative of different cyclical behaviour patterns. The non-parametrical sign test is used to test co-product price trends for the US metal mining industry. The results indicate that multi-metal production stabilizes the mining industry in the short run but not in the long run.     

土地价格评估体系的整合

在介绍宗地价格评估、基准地价评估、地价指数编制和地价动态监测体系建立等我国现行土地价格评估体系的基础上,分析了该评估体系存在的问题,提出了土地价格评估体系整合的概念及实施的建议.     

INDUSTRIAL WATER DEMAND WITH WATER REUSE1

ABSTRACT: This work establishes an industrial water demand (IWD) model for a short term estimate, which considers water reuse technologies and discharge regulations, for the integrated circuit (IC) industry in northern Taiwan. Based on the optimization of an industrial water cost system, a computerized system dynamics model (SD model) is developed to generate individual firm IWD using data from year 2000. A market IWD is further constructed for 25 1C firms in the study area and is approximated by an inverse logistic curve. Analytical results demonstrate that price elasticity varies with water price in cases involving water reuse.