Representative Landscapes in the Forested Area of Canada

Canada is a large nation with forested ecosystems that occupy over 60% of the national land base, and knowledge of the patterns of Canada’s land cover is important to proper environmental management of this vast resource. To this end, a circa 2000 Landsat-derived land cover map of the forested ecosystems of Canada has created a new window into understanding the composition and configuration of land cover patterns in forested Canada. Strategies for summarizing such large expanses of land cover are increasingly important, as land managers work to study and preserve distinctive areas, as well as to identify representative examples of current land-cover and land-use assemblages. Meanwhile, the development of extremely efficient clustering algorithms has become increasingly important in the world of computer science, in which billions of pieces of information on the internet are continually sifted for meaning for a vast variety of applications. One recently developed clustering algorithm quickly groups large numbers of items of any type in a given data set while simultaneously selecting a representative—or “exemplar”—from each cluster. In this context, the availability of both advanced data processing methods and a nationally available set of landscape metrics presents an opportunity to identify sets of representative landscapes to better understand landscape pattern, variation, and distribution across the forested area of Canada. In this research, we first identify and provide context for a small, interpretable set of exemplar landscapes that objectively represent land cover in each of Canada’s ten forested ecozones. Then, we demonstrate how this approach can be used to identify flagship and satellite long-term study areas inside and outside protected areas in the province of Ontario. These applications aid our understanding of Canada’s forest while augmenting its management toolbox, and may signal a broad range of applications for this versatile approach.     

Indigenous Systems of Forest Classification: Understanding Land Use Patterns and the Role of NTFPs in Shifting Cultivators’ Subsistence Economies

This article discusses the system of classification of forest types used by the Pwo Karen in Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in western Thailand and the role of nontimber forest products (NTFPs), focusing on wild food plants, in Karen livelihoods. The article argues that the Pwo Karen have two methods of forest classification, closely related to their swidden farming practices. The first is used for forest land that has been, or can be, swiddened, and classifies forest types according to growth conditions. The second system is used for land that is not suitable for cultivation and looks at soil properties and slope. The article estimates the relative importance of each forest type in what concerns the collection of wild food plants. A total of 134 wild food plant species were recorded in December 2004. They account for some 80–90% of the amount of edible plants consumed by the Pwo Karen, and have a base value of Baht 11,505 per year, comparable to the cash incomes of many households. The article argues that the Pwo Karen reliance on NTFPs has influenced their land-use and forest management practices. However, by restricting the length of the fallow period, the Thai government has caused ecological changes that are challenging the ability of the Karen to remain subsistence oriented. By ignoring shifting cultivators’ dependence on such products, the involvement of governments in forest management, especially through restrictions imposed on swidden farming practices, is likely to have a considerable impact on the livelihood strategies of these communities.     

Improving food security in Swaziland: The transition from subsistence to communally managed cash cropping

The Komati Downstream Development Project (KDDP), based upon the Maguga Dam has enabled 6,000 hectares of semi‐arid lowveld, in a region with low and highly variable rainfall to be converted from subsistence to irrigated commercial farming, mainly of sugar cane. This has transformed the Swazi sugar industry from one dominated by a small number of large‐scale commercial estates to one where more than 1,500 previously impoverished small‐scale Swazi farmers have been able to enter the industry by joining farmers’ associations and creating communally managed farms. Recent changes to the EU's Sugar Protocol have undermined the financial viability of the KDDP farms and undermined food security, especially for the poorest, due to the cut in sugar prices. However, some farmers’ associations have opted to keep some of their land as irrigated home gardens, rather than convert all their land to sugar cane. This model has improved food security at a time of low sugar prices and points to a more sustainable way of using water from large scale dams than the conventional model. It is argued that the EU should target support to members of the KDDP who have taken out large‐scale loans to pay for the in‐field infrastructure and encourage all farmers’ associations to adopt the food garden model. This would enable them to continue to benefit from the irrigation through improved production of subsistence crops, whilst they diversify their commercial production into novel markets.     

Understanding and Integrating Local Perceptions of Trees and Forests into Incentives for Sustainable Landscape Management

We examine five forested landscapes in Africa (Cameroon, Madagascar, and Tanzania) and Asia (Indonesia and Laos) at different stages of landscape change. In all five areas, forest cover (outside of protected areas) continues to decrease despite local people's recognition of the importance of forest products and services. After forest conversion, agroforestry systems and fallows provide multiple functions and valued products, and retain significant biodiversity. But there are indications that such land use is transitory, with gradual simplification and loss of complex agroforests and fallows as land use becomes increasingly individualistic and profit driven. In Indonesia and Tanzania, farmers favor monocultures (rubber and oil palm, and sugarcane, respectively) for their high financial returns, with these systems replacing existing complex agroforests. In the study sites in Madagascar and Laos, investments in agroforests and new crops remain rare, despite government attempts to eradicate swidden systems and their multifunctional fallows. We discuss approaches to assessing local values related to landscape cover and associated goods and services. We highlight discrepancies between individual and collective responses in characterizing land use tendencies, and discuss the effects of accessibility on land management. We conclude that a combination of social, economic, and spatially explicit assessment methods is necessary to inform land use planning. Furthermore, any efforts to modify current trends will require clear incentives, such as through carbon finance. We speculate on the nature of such incentive schemes and the possibility of rewarding the provision of ecosystem services at a landscape scale and in a socially equitable manner.     

Land-Use Planning in the Chaco Plain (Burruyacú, Argentina). Part 1: Evaluating Land-Use Options to Support Crop Diversification in an Agricultural Frontier Area Using Physical Land Evaluation

The Burruyacú district (Tucumán province, Argentina) is a farming frontier in the western Chaco plain, at the foothills of the sub-Andean mountain ranges, where agricultural land-uses are in conflict with the conservation and management of the Chaco forest. Over the last decades, large-scale farming rapidly expanded due to population pressure, attractive market prices, easy accessibility, favourable annual rainfall, fertile soils, and flexible land tenure. Cropland extension, mainly for heavily mechanized soybean production, has resulted in important reduction of the Chaco forest and also caused physical soil degradation, especially soil compaction, and soil erosion. Land suitability was assessed using the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) framework for a set of crops ecologically adapted to the area, including soybean, maize, wheat, sugarcane, citrus, and safflower. Only 16% of the study area has high suitability for most of the selected crops. Major limitations for cropping are low annual rainfall and flooding in the east of the study area, and topography (slope) and flooding in the west. As climate varies over relatively short periods of time, with recurrent cycles of dry and rainy years, land suitability for the selected crops was also assessed under extreme but realistic climatic conditions. Under rainy-year conditions, almost all the study area is unsuitable or marginally suitable for most of the crops. Under dry-year conditions, the study area is unsuitable for all crops, except safflower, which is more drought-resistant. This article proposes alternatives to the mono-cropping of soybean with the aim to help farmers make adequate decisions on land-use and management under deteriorating environmental conditions and for addressing the issue of competitive land uses in the context of land-use planning.     

Potential coastal impacts of contemporary changing climate on South Asian seas states

The threat of man-induced global change on the nations of the South Asian seas region varies from place to place because of differences in exposure to monsoons and stoms, differences in local tectonics and subsidence, and variations in air and sea climates. Because several nations are involved, some having subsistence budgets, and given the cost of deriving independently a comprehensive response to global change, the similarities and differences between national settings must be identified soon. These comparisons will form the basis for local response strategies: the similarities provide a basis for responses similar to that of other nations and the differences provide for local adaptation. That climate change on the South Asian coastal region will have an impact is certain: its economics, environment, and coastal land uses are dominated to a certain extent by this marine influence. The extent of these impacts, however, is uncertain. Accompanying global change will be changes in sea level, differences in storm climate, and altered precipitation patterns; science cannot define today what pattern these changes will take. Because global change is inevitable—although its magnitude, timing, and geographic distribution are unknown—the South Asian seas region should begin the appropriate research and planning studies to set forth a reasoned response to global change, for implementation when scientific evidence for global change is more quantitative.     

Soil erosion and risk-assessment for on- and off-farm impacts: A test case using the Midhurst area,West Sussex,UK

Soil erosion on agricultural land is a growing problem in Western Europe and constitutes a threat to soil quality and to the ability of soils to provide environmental services. The off-site impacts of runoff and eroded soil, principally eutrophication of water bodies, sedimentation of gravel-bedded rivers, loss of reservoir capacity, muddy flooding of roads and communities, are increasingly recognised and costed. The shift of funding in the European Union (EU) from production-related to avoidance of pollution and landscape protection, raises issues of cross-compliance: public support for agriculture has to be seen to give value-for-money. In this context risk-assessment procedures have been introduced to help farmers recognise sites where either certain crops should not be grown or anti-erosion measures are required. In England, Defra [Defra, 2005a. Controlling Soil Erosion: a Manual for the Assessment and Management of Agricultural Land at Risk of Water Erosion in Lowland England. Revised September 2005. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London] sets out a system of risk-assessment, including ranking of crops susceptible to erosion and anti-erosion measures, that may be selected. We assess this system using field data for an area of erodible soils in the Rother valley, Sussex. The Defra approach correctly identifies most at-risk fields and, taken together with land-use maps, allows non-compliance with advice to be highlighted. We suggest a simple extension to the system which would further identify at-risk fields in terms of possible damage to roads and rivers from muddy runoff. The increased risk of erosion in the study area is associated with certain crops: potatoes, winter cereals, maize and grazed turnips and seems unlikely to be the result of changes in rainfall which over the last 130 years are minimal. We have not evaluated proposed anti-erosion measures in the area because few have been put into practice. The European Water Framework Directive will increasingly focus attention on agricultural fields as a source of river pollution. Assessing the risk of erosion and the need for field testing of suggested approaches, are not simply issues for the EU, but for the management of global agricultural systems.     

The Impact of Policy and Institutional Environment on Costs and Benefits of Sustainable Agricultural Land Uses: The Case of the Chittagong Hill Tracts,Bangladesh

As in other mountain regions of Asia, agricultural lands in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh are undergoing degradation due primarily to environmentally incompatible land-use systems such as shifting cultivation (jhum) and annual cash crops. The suitable land-use systems such as agroforestry and timber tree plantation provide benefit to the society at large, but they might not provide attractive economic benefits to farmers, eventually constraining a wide-scale adoption of such land-use systems. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate agricultural land-use systems from both societal and private perspectives in the pursuit of promoting particularly environmentally sustainable systems. This article evaluated five major land-use systems being practiced in CHT, namely jhum, annual cash crops, horticulture, agroforestry, and timber plantation. The results of the financial analysis revealed the annual cash crops as the most attractive land use and jhum as the least attractive of the five land-use systems considered under the study. Horticulture, timber plantation, and agroforestry, considered to be suitable land-use systems particularly for mountainous areas, held the middle ground between these two systems. Annual cash crops provided the highest financial return at the cost of a very high rate of soil erosion. When the societal cost of soil erosion is considered, annual cash crops appear to be the most costly land-use system, followed by jhum and horticulture. Although financially less attractive compared to annual cash crops and horticulture, agroforestry and timber plantation are the socially most beneficial land-use systems. Findings of the alternative policy analyses indicate that there is a good prospect for making environmentally sustainable land-use systems, such as agroforestry and timber plantation, attractive for the farmers by eliminating existing legal and institutional barriers, combined with the provision of necessary support services and facilities.

Impacts of Public Policies and Farmer Preferences on Agroforestry Practices in Kerala,India

Agroforestry systems are fundamental features of the rural landscape of the Indian state of Kerala. Yet these mixed species systems are increasingly being replaced by monocultures. This paper explores how public policies on land tenure, agriculture, forestry and tree growing on private lands have interacted with farmer preferences in shaping land use dynamics and agroforestry practices. It argues that not only is there no specific policy for agroforestry in Kerala, but also that the existing sectoral policies of land tenure, agriculture, and forestry contributed to promoting plantation crops, even among marginal farmers. Forest policies, which impose restrictions on timber extraction from farmers’ fields under the garb of protecting natural forests, have often acted as a disincentive to maintaining tree-based mixed production systems on farmlands. The paper argues that public policies interact with farmers’ preferences in determining land use practices.     

Institutional,Individual, and Socio-Cultural Domains of Partnerships: A Typology of USDA Forest Service Recreation Partners

Federal land management agencies, such as the USDA Forest Service, have expanded the role of recreation partners reflecting constrained growth in appropriations and broader societal trends towards civic environmental governance. Partnerships with individual volunteers, service groups, commercial outfitters, and other government agencies provide the USDA Forest Service with the resources necessary to complete projects and meet goals under fiscal constraints. Existing partnership typologies typically focus on collaborative or strategic alliances and highlight organizational dimensions (e.g., structure and process) defined by researchers. This paper presents a partner typology constructed from USDA Forest Service partnership practitioners’ conceptualizations of 35 common partner types. Multidimensional scaling of data from unconstrained pile sorts identified 3 distinct cultural dimensions of recreation partners—specifically, partnership character, partner impact, and partner motivations—that represent institutional, individual, and socio-cultural cognitive domains. A hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis provides further insight into the various domains of agency personnel’s conceptualizations. While three dimensions with high reliability (RSQ = 0.83) and corresponding hierarchical clusters illustrate commonality between agency personnel’s partnership suppositions, this study also reveals variance in personnel’s familiarity and affinity for specific partnership types. This real-world perspective on partner types highlights that agency practitioners not only make strategic choices when selecting and cultivating partnerships to accomplish critical task, but also elect to work with partners for the primary purpose of providing public service and fostering land stewardship.     

Land-Use Planning in the Chaco Plain (Burruyacú, Argentina): Part 2: Generating a Consensus Plan to Mitigate Land-Use Conflicts and Minimize Land Degradation

The Burruyacú district (Tucumán province, Northwest Argentina) has been traditionally an area with rural activities based on the exploitation of the Chaco forest for timber and livestock browsing. Since the 1960s, local institutions started promoting soybean due to favorable land conditions and good market prices. Soybean extension, as from the 1970s, has resulted in important reduction of the Chaco forest and also caused physical soil degradation, especially soil compaction and erosion. A land-use-planning exercise was carried out using the Land-Use Planning and Information System (LUPIS) as a spatial decision support system. LUPIS facilitates the generation of alternative land-use plans by adjusting the relative importance attributed by multiple stakeholders to preference and avoidance policies. The system leads to the allocation of competing land uses to land map units in accordance with their preferred resource requirements, conditional upon the resource base of the area and the stakeholders' demands. After generating a land use plan for each stakeholder category identified in the study area, including commercial farmers, conservative/conventional farmers, and conservationists, a consensus plan was established to address the land-use conflicts between mechanized agriculture, traditional agriculture and forest conservation, and to mitigate soil degradation caused by extensive dry-farming. Although the planning exercise did not directly involve the stakeholders, the results are sufficiently practical and realistic to suggest that the approach could be extended to the entire Chaco plain region.     

From Forest Landscape to Agricultural Landscape in the Developing Tropical Country of Malaysia: Pattern,Process, and Their Significance on Policy

Agricultural expansion and deforestation are spatial processes of land transformation that impact on landscape pattern. In peninsular Malaysia, the conversion of forested areas into two major cash crops—rubber and oil palm plantations—has been identified as driving significant environmental change. To date, there has been insufficient literature studying the link between changes in landscape patterns and land-related development policies. Therefore, this paper examines: (i) the links between development policies and changes in land use/land cover and landscape pattern and (ii) the significance and implications of these links for future development policies. The objective is to generate insights on the changing process of land use/land cover and landscape pattern as a functional response to development policies and their consequences for environmental conditions. Over the last century, the development of cash crops has changed the country from one dominated by natural landscapes to one dominated by agricultural landscapes. But the last decade of the century saw urbanization beginning to impact significantly. This process aligned with the establishment of various development policies, from land development for agriculture between the mid 1950s and the 1970s to an emphasis on manufacturing from the 1980s onward. Based on a case study in Selangor, peninsular Malaysia, a model of landscape pattern change is presented. It contains three stages according to the relative importance of rubber (first stage: 1900–1950s), oil palm (second stage: 1960s–1970s), and urban (third stage: 1980s–1990s) development that influenced landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity. The environmental consequences of this change have been depicted through loss of biodiversity, geohazard incidences, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. The spatial ecological information can be useful to development policy formulation, allowing diagnosis of the country’s “health” and sustainability. The final section outlines the usefulness of landscape analysis in the policy-making process to prevent further fragmentation of the landscape and forest loss in Malaysia in the face of rapid economic development.

土地利用变化的数学模型解析

归纳了目前在研究土地利用变化中广泛采用的一些数学模型，解析了每种模型的涵义和意义。按照模型反映的内容不同，将其分为三大类：土地资源数量变化模型、土地资源质量变化模型和土地资源空间变化模型，总结了每类模型的特点和不足之处。     

Farmers’ Perceptions of Land Degradation and Their Investments in Land Management: A Case Study in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

To combat land degradation in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, farmers are of crucial importance. If farmers perceive land degradation as a problem, the chance that they invest in land management measures will be enhanced. This study presents farmers’ perceptions of land degradation and their investments in land management, and to what extent the latter are influenced by these perceptions. Water erosion and fertility depletion are taken as main indicators of land degradation, and the results show that farmers perceive an increase in both indicators over the last decade. They are aware of it and consider it as a problem. Nevertheless, farmers’ investments to control water erosion and soil fertility depletion are very limited in the CRV. Results also show that farmers’ awareness of both water erosion and soil fertility decline as a problem is not significantly associated with their investments in land management. Hence, even farmers who perceive land degradation on their fields and are concerned about its increase over the last decade do not significantly invest more in water erosion and soil fertility control measures than farmers who do not perceive these phenomena. Further research is needed to assess which other factors might influence farmers’ investments in land management, especially factors related to socioeconomic characteristics of farm households and plot characteristics which were not addressed by this study.     

Commercialization of Perennial GE Crops: Looming Challenges for Regulatory Frameworks

Overall, the deregulation of genetically engineered (GE) crops for commercial cultivation in North America has been a success story. In several cases, however, GE crops have sparked concerns and disagreements among the stakeholders and there are incidences of court lawsuits, including a recent one on glyphosate resistant (GR) alfalfa (Medicago sativa, L.). While GE crops can provide operational benefits to farmers, challenges are looming from commercialization of perennial GE crops. The unique ecology and biology of these crops and GE alfalfa in particular can facilitate adventitious presence (AP) of GE traits and it makes more visible that economic risks for conventional growers and food/feed producers have not been adequately addressed by the GE regulatory system in the United States (US). Asynchronous market approvals and the existence of a number of GE sensitive export markets create uncertainties among the exporters. Policy development in these fields may be helpful for ensuring a broader acceptance and market success of GE agriculture in general. The analysis is focusing on the US, although many diagnosed problems are also relevant to other jurisdictions—in particular if no co-existence policy is in place.     

TMDL Implementation in Agricultural Landscapes: A Communicative and Systemic Approach

Increasingly, total maximum daily load (TMDL) limits are being defined for agricultural watersheds. Reductions in non-point source pollution are often needed to meet TMDL limits, and improvements in management of annual crops appear insufficient to achieve the necessary reductions. Increased adoption of perennial crops and other changes in agricultural land use also appear necessary, but face major barriers. We outline a novel strategy that aims to create new economic opportunities for land-owners and other stakeholders and thereby to attract their voluntary participation in land-use change needed to meet TMDLs. Our strategy has two key elements. First, focused efforts are needed to create new economic enterprises that capitalize on the productive potential of multifunctional agriculture (MFA). MFA seeks to produce a wide range of goods and ecosystem services by well-designed deployment of annual and perennial crops across agricultural landscapes and watersheds; new revenue from MFA may substantially finance land-use change needed to meet TMDLs. Second, efforts to capitalize on MFA should use a novel methodology, the Communicative/Systemic Approach (C/SA). C/SA uses an integrative GIS-based spatial modeling framework for systematically assessing tradeoffs and synergies in design and evaluation of multifunctional agricultural landscapes, closely linked to deliberation and design processes by which multiple stakeholders can collaboratively create appropriate and acceptable MFA landscape designs. We anticipate that application of C/SA will strongly accelerate TMDL implementation, by aligning the interests of multiple stakeholders whose active support is needed to change agricultural land use and thereby meet TMDL goals.     

Climate change and adoption of sustainable land management practices in the Niger basin of Benin

Due to the important role that the agricultural sector plays in sustaining growth and reducing poverty in developing countries, the adoption of practices that have the potential to simultaneously improve agricultural productivity while minimizing environmental impacts is essential. This paper examines the determinants of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and subsequent adoption of sustainable land management practices in the Niger basin of Benin. Binary and multivariate probit models are applied in a two‐stage regression procedure to cross‐sectional data collected through a survey of 545 randomly selected farm households in 28 villages. The findings indicate that there are substitutabilities among three pairs of sustainable land management practices being used by the farmers. Climate change perception is positively related to land tenure, experience in farming, number of relatives, tractor use, and membership in farmers’ organizations, and negatively related to household size, remoteness, and plough use. Moreover, the findings reveal that the uptake of land management practices is related to assets, land tenure, education level of the household head, remoteness, social network, non‐irrigated land size, having a farm located near a river/lake/stream, tractor and plough use, being a subsistence farmer or not, and memberships in farmers’ organizations. The adoption of sustainable land management practices could be encouraged through improving access to markets, adequate roads, and technologies, as well as by promoting membership in farmers’ organizations.     

A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households’ income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.     

Local Irrigation Management Institutions Mediate Changes Driven by External Policy and Market Pressures in Nepal and Thailand

This article assesses the role of local institutions in managing irrigation water use. Fifty irrigation systems in each country were studied in Nepal and Thailand to compare the influence of local institutions on performance of irrigation systems amid changes in external policy and market pressures. Nepal’s new irrigation policy after the re-instatement of multiparty democracy in 1990 emphasized participatory irrigation management transferring the management responsibility from state authorities to water users. The water user associations of traditional farmer-managed irrigation systems were formally recognized by requiring registration with related state authorities. In Thailand also government policies encouraged people’s participation in irrigation management. Today water users are directly involved in management of even some large irrigation systems at the level of tertiary canals. Traditional communal irrigation systems in northern Thailand received support for system infrastructure improvement but have faced increased interference from government. In Thailand market development supported diversification in farming practices resulting in increased areas under high water-demanding commercial crops in the dry season. In contrast, the command areas of most irrigation systems in Nepal include cereal-based subsistence farming with only one-third having commercial farming. Cropping intensities are higher in Nepal than in Thailand reflecting, in part, differences in availability of land and management. In both countries local institutions play an important role in maintaining the performance of irrigation systems as external drivers and local contexts change. Local institutions have provided alternative options for irrigation water use by mediating external pressures.     

The Influence of Agroforestry and Other Land-Use Types on the Persistence of a Sumatran Tiger (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Panthera tigris sumatrae</Emphasis>) Population: An Individual-Based Model Approach

The importance of preserving both protected areas and their surrounding landscapes as one of the major conservation strategies for tigers has received attention over recent decades. However, the mechanism of how land-use surrounding protected areas affects the dynamics of tiger populations is poorly understood. We developed Panthera Population Persistence (PPP)—an individual-based model—to investigate the potential mechanism of the Sumatran tiger population dynamics in a protected area and under different land-use scenarios surrounding the reserve. We tested three main landscape compositions (single, combined and real land-uses of Tesso-Nilo National Park and its surrounding area) on the probability of and time to extinction of the Sumatran tiger over 20 years in Central Sumatra. The model successfully explains the mechanisms behind the population response of tigers under different habitat landscape compositions. Feeding and mating behaviours of tigers are key factors, which determined population persistence in a heterogeneous landscape. All single land-use scenarios resulted in tiger extinction but had a different probability of extinction within 20 years. If tropical forest was combined with other land-use types, the probability of extinction was smaller. The presence of agroforesty and logging concessions adjacent to protected areas encouraged the survival of tiger populations. However, with the real land-use scenario of Tesso-Nilo National Park, tigers could not survive for more than 10 years. Promoting the practice of agroforestry systems surrounding the park is probably the most reasonable way to steer land-use surrounding the Tesso-Nilo National Park to support tiger conservation.