An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

UTILIZATION OF REMOTE SENSING IN RIVER BASIN STUDIES1

ABSTRACT: Remote sensing techniques have the potential for significantly reducing the level of effort in a river basin water quality study. An immediate requirement exists, however, for the formulation of the proper methodology for the application of remote sensing to this problem area. A general methodology is proposed for conduct of river basin water quality studies. The primary advantage offered by the proposed methodology is a technique for rapid evaluation of the water quality conditions of a river basin. Remote sensing techniques are a fundamental part of the methodology. The proposed methodology consists of two phases. Phase I deals with the study of the water resource characteristics of the basin as a system and identification of “critical areas.” Phase II of the methodology involves the detailed study of the critical areas by means of computerized water quality simulation models.     

尼洋河流域水环境质量现状评价研究——基于模糊综合评价法

尼洋河流域水资源十分丰富,水能蕴藏量巨大,生态环境良好。随着西藏经济的发展,必将出现大规模开发利用水资源的趋势,探讨流域水资源和环境的现状及可持续发展具有十分重要的现实意义。本文对尼洋河流域基础资料的收集与整理,分析尼洋河流域的特点与现存的问题,根据收集的水质监测资料,分析了流域污染源概况和构成,以未进行水环境功能区划为前提,选择模糊综合评价法对尼洋河流域水环境质量进行现状评价,并对超标断面进行了原因分析,通过对2012年尼洋河流域14个监测断面监测成果的评价,得出尼洋河流域水质现状良好的结论,为以后的水功能区划分、水质目标的确定以及水环境功能区划分提供依据。     

岷江流域地表水水质的模糊综合评价

岷江是长江上游的一个重要支流，其水质安全对维持成都平原正常的生产生活起着至关重要的作用。采用模糊综合评价的方法，对岷江流域14个地表水监测断面的水质状况进行了综合评价。结果表明：在14个监测断面中，处于清洁和未污染程度的断面占50％，主要位于岷江流域的上游和下游，其水质状况较好；处于重污染的断面占29％，主要位于岷江流域的中游，水质状况较差。因此，需要加强流域综合治理尤其是对岷江中游的治理，以确保岷江流域的水质安全。     

A COMPLEMENTARY TOOL TO WATER QUALITY INDEX: FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: A general methodology for fuzzy clustering analysis is developed and illustrated with a case study of water quality evaluation for Dianshan Lake, Shanghai, China. Fuzzy clustering analysis may be used whenever a composite classification of water quality incorporates multiple parameters. In such cases, the technique may be used as a complement or an alternative to comprehensive assessment. In fuzzy clustering analysis, the classification is determined by a fuzzy relation. After a fuzzy similarity matrix has been established and the fuzzy relation stabilized, a dynamic clustering chart can be developed. Given a suitable threshold, the appropriate classification is worked out. The methodology is relatively simple, and the results can be interpreted to provide valuable information to support decision making and to aid water quality management.     

基于流域视角的水环境综合治理规划研究——以江苏省淀山湖为例

以流域为单元进行水资源综合规划和管理是实现水环境改善的重要途径。本文以太湖流域第二大省界湖泊—淀山湖为例,在综合分析流域水环境质量基础上,利用GIS 分析工具划分流域治理片区并制定分区管控策略。根据流域所含骨干河流流向、骨干河流与淀山湖交汇特点、上中下游不同河段及镇域行政边界,将淀山湖流域分为吴淞江流域、千灯浦- 淀山湖流域、昆南湖荡流域、元荡湖荡流域、太浦河流域五大片区138 个子评价单元。通过水环境容量与压力两类空间叠加分析,构建形成污染重点减排区、污染综合治理区、产业绿色化提升区、生态环境保育区等四个类型区域,并提出差异化的产业准入和环境治理措施。本研究不仅为以流域为治理单元的水环境治理规划提供了较为可行的技术体系,而且为太湖流域水环境综合整治思路创新提供了可借鉴的案例。     

再生水补给城市河道的生态服务价值预测

为了充分认识再生水用于城市河道补水后的潜在正面环境价值,构建了案例区规划水系的水量水质模型,并筛选了7项景观生态河流的生态服务价值指标,对案例区的河流生态服务价值进行了评估。以规划补水量为基础条件,规划水系的潜在服务价值总量约为1.995亿元,每增加1倍补水量可增加约0.4~0.5亿元的服务价值。气候调节、洪水调蓄和水量存贮是总量中占比最高的前三位指标,在规划情景下分别占总量的43.2%、41.6%、15.0%。生态服务价值总量和前三位指标的计算结果均能与再生水补水量拟合形成较好的响应关系,因此研究结果可以为预测评估不同补水量条件下的潜在河流生态服务价值提供一定的依据。     

DECISION SUPPORT FOR ALLOCATION OF WATERSHED POLLUTION LOAD USING GREY FUZZY MULTIOBJECTIVE PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: This paper uses the grey fuzzy multiobjective programming to aid in decision making for the allocation of waste load in a river system under versatile uncertainties and risks. It differs from previous studies by considering a multicriteria objective function with combined grey and fuzzy messages under a cost benefit analysis framework. Such analysis technically integrates the prior information of water quality models, water quality standards, wastewater treatment costs, and potential benefits gained via in‐stream water quality improvement. While fuzzy sets are characterized based on semantic and cognitive vagueness in decision making, grey numbers can delineate measurement errors in data collection. By employing three distinct set theoretic fuzzy operators, the synergy of grey and fuzzy implications may smoothly characterize the prescribed management complexity. With the aid of genetic algorithm in the solution procedure, the modeling outputs contribute to the development of an effective waste load allocation and reduction scheme for tributaries in this subwatershed located in the lower Tseng‐Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Research findings indicate that the inclusion of three fuzzy set theoretic operators in decision analysis may delineate different tradeoffs in decision making due to varying changes, transformations, and movements of waste load in association with land use pattern within the watershed.     

SCREENING THE RELOCATION STRATEGIES OF WATER QUALITY MONITORING STATIONS BY COMPROMISE PROGRAMMING1

Water quality monitoring network designs historically have tended to use experience, intuition, and subjective judgment in siting monitoring stations only sporadically. Better design procedures for optimizing monitoring systems with respect to multiple criteria decision analysis had rarely been put into practice up front when the needs for intensive monitoring became critical. This paper describes a systematic relocation strategy that is organized to identify several significant planning objectives and consider a series of inherent constraints simultaneously. The planning objectives considered in this analysis are designed to enhance the detection possibility for lower compliance areas, reflect the emphasis for different attainable water uses at different locations, promote the potential detection for the lower degradation areas of pollutants, increase the protection degree of those areas with higher population density in the proximity of the river system, and strengthen the pre‐warning capability of water quality for water intakes. The constraint set contains the limitations of budget, the equity implication, and the detection sensitivity in the water environment. A case study in the Kao‐Ping River Basin, South Taiwan, demonstrates the application potential of this methodology based on a seamless integration between the optimization and the simulation models. It enables identification of the optimal locational pattern stepwise using the embedded screening and sequencing capacity in a compromise programming model. However, a well calibrated and verified water quality model is an indispensable tool in support of this multiobjective evaluation. Extra sampling procedures become necessary for the sites with sparse environmental information. Comparison of planning outcomes of compromise programming is made against previously achieved analyses by using weighted programming and fuzzy programming.     

基于模糊综合评判法评价地下水环境质量的探讨——以新疆某市为例

模糊综合评判法是以模糊数学为基础,应用模糊关系合成的原理,将一些边界不清,不易定量的因素定量化,进行综合评价的一种方法。从其原理分析,在地下水环境质量评价方面可能取得更准确的结果。首先介绍了模糊综合评判法的计算步骤,然后以新疆某市2008年第4季度2个水质监测采样点的监测资料为依据,选择5种污染物为评价因子,运用模糊综合评判法进行运算,得出综合评价结果。评价结果表明,运用模糊综合评判法评价地下水质量是合理的,其评价结果能全面反映水质的综合状况。     

Assessment of surface water quality of selected estuaries of Malaysia: multivariate statistical techniques

Multivariate statistical techniques such as cluster analysis (CA), factor analysis (FA) were used for the evaluation of spatial variations and the interpretation of a large complex water quality data set of two selected estuaries of Malaysia. The two locations of interest with 10 sites in each location were Kuala Juru (Juru estuary) and Bukit Tambun (Jejawi estuary). Cluster analysis showed that some sites in both locations have similar sources of pollution from point or non-point sources whereas FA yielded four factors which are responsible for water quality variations explaining more than 80% of the total variance of the data set and allowed to group the selected water quality. Correlation analysis of the data showed that some parameters have strong association with other parameters and they share a common origin source. This study illustrates the usefulness of multivariate statistical analysis for evaluation and interpretation of complex data sets to get better information about the pollution sources/factors and understanding the behavior of the parameters in water quality for effective river water quality management.     

制度变迁视角下对河长制的实施动因分析——以江苏省为例

河长制作为一种综合管理制度,明确了河湖治理的权利和责任,实现了外部性的内化与交易费用的降低,河长制的起源是内生性变化的结果,其制度变迁的过程受制于路径依赖的惯性及其所处的社会环境变化,河湖水质的改善和水治理能力现代化的提升验证了河长制是制度创新的成功实践。中国河湖治理制度的演进符合制度变迁的进程,河长制的实施是历史的必然选择。基于制度变迁理论,以首创河长制的江苏省为例,通过展开江苏省河湖治理政策的演变过程分析河长制的成效和实施动因,进而总结制度变迁理论为河长制变迁提供的启示。     

A two-dimensional water-quality model for a winding and topographically complicated river

In this paper, a two-dimensional numerical calculation algorithm for water-quality modeling is presented. The algorithm is designed specifically for river systems with complicated geometric conditions. When velocity field data of the river are not available, the numerical calculation algorithm for the water-quality modeling can be used to project river-water quality by using a topographic map of the river course and a finite element method. The calculation results of the water-quality model can show the concentration fields of various pollutants. The water-quality model was applied to a case-study in the Hengyang City section of Xiangjiang River in Hunan Province, China. The river under consideration is winding and has an isle between two branches. In 1995, Chinese government secured a World Bank loan to conduct a Waterways Project in the study region. It was expected that construction works in the river section might affect water quality. Given that the project would change the hydrological regime of the river system and discharges, and so would affect water quality, there would be a need for model results that would predict the water-quality impacts of the Waterways Project. In particular, the study intended to apply the model to identify changes in river-water quality associated with the construction of Dayuandu navigation key project. It is hoped that the numerical calculation algorithm for the water-quality modeling presented in this paper can also be applied to other shallow rivers with similar topographical conditions.     

A WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE SENEGAL RIVER BASIN1

A study was made to determine the impact on water quality due to water resource development in a large river basin in a semi-arid region of West Africa. Mathematical modeling and the examination of case histories were used to project impacts. The impacts associated with changes in water quality were shown to be slight assuming that modern basin and agricultural management practices are adopted. Analytical techniques normally implemented in studies of more highly developed basins are useful for analysis of water quality impacts in relatively undeveloped basins.     

Application of Multiobjective Programming to Water Quality Management in a River Basin

In this work on the management of water quality in a river basin by means of multiobjective programming, the programming model consists of three objectives that include simultaneously both economic and environmental factors. These objectives are the water quality of the rivers, the cost of wastewater treatment and the assimilative capacity of the rivers. In particular, this research is the first to take into account the last objective. For practical application, this paper proposes two methods of multiobjective programming, the constraint method and the step method. Furthermore, to illustrate the application of these techniques to water quality management problems, we use the basin of Tzeng-Wen River, Taiwan, as a case study. The results show that these methods work satisfactorily to improve the water quality, to ascertain the economic cost of wastewater treatment, and to allocate allowable loading in a manner of equality from non-inferior solutions. Alternatively, these methods provide important information for regulatory agencies to implement pollution control of river water.     

FSILP: fuzzy-stochastic-interval linear programming for supporting municipal solid waste management

Although many studies on municipal solid waste management (MSW management) were conducted under uncertain conditions of fuzzy, stochastic, and interval coexistence, the solution to the conventional linear programming problems of integrating fuzzy method with the other two was inefficient. In this study, a fuzzy-stochastic-interval linear programming (FSILP) method is developed by integrating Nguyen's method with conventional linear programming for supporting municipal solid waste management. The Nguyen's method was used to convert the fuzzy and fuzzy-stochastic linear programming problems into the conventional linear programs, by measuring the attainment values of fuzzy numbers and/or fuzzy random variables, as well as superiority and inferiority between triangular fuzzy numbers/triangular fuzzy-stochastic variables. The developed method can effectively tackle uncertainties described in terms of probability density functions, fuzzy membership functions, and discrete intervals. Moreover, the method can also improve upon the conventional interval fuzzy programming and two-stage stochastic programming approaches, with advantageous capabilities that are easily achieved with fewer constraints and significantly reduces consumption time. The developed model was applied to a case study of municipal solid waste management system in a city. The results indicated that reasonable solutions had been generated. The solution can help quantify the relationship between the change of system cost and the uncertainties, which could support further analysis of tradeoffs between the waste management cost and the system failure risk.     

An Interval-Parameter Waste-Load-Allocation Model for River Water Quality Management Under Uncertainty

A simulation-based interval quadratic waste load allocation (IQWLA) model was developed for supporting river water quality management. A multi-segment simulation model was developed to generate water-quality transformation matrices and vectors under steady-state river flow conditions. The established matrices and vectors were then used to establish the water-quality constraints that were included in a water quality management model. Uncertainties associated with water quality parameters, cost functions, and environmental guidelines were described as intervals. The cost functions of wastewater treatment units were expressed in quadratic forms. A water-quality planning problem in the Changsha section of Xiangjiang River in China was used as a study case to demonstrate applicability of the proposed method. The study results demonstrated that IQWLA model could effectively communicate the interval-format uncertainties into optimization process, and generate inexact solutions that contain a spectrum of potential wastewater treatment options. Decision alternatives can be generated by adjusting different combinations of the decision variables within their solution intervals. The results are valuable for supporting local decision makers in generating cost-effective water quality management strategies.     

Factorial fuzzy programming for planning water resources management systems

In this paper, we propose a factorial fuzzy programming (FFP) approach for planning water resources management systems. The conventional fuzzy method cannot reflect the interactions among uncertain system parameters nor quantify their interactive effects. This may lead to important interrelationships among system parameters being neglected in systems analysis, and the derived decisions may not be robust enough to support the management under uncertainties. The objective of this study is to develop an FFP approach to deal with such interactive uncertainties. Factorial analysis (FA) was integrated with the fuzzy technique to quantify the effects of multiple fuzzy modeling parameters on the system performance and to reveal their implicit interrelationships. A flood-diversion planning case was studied to illustrate the applicability of the FFP approach. The individual and interactive effects of fuzzy parameters on the system objectives were evaluated. The influential effects were identified and the implicit interrelationships within influential interactions were revealed.     

Adverse Effects on Alfeios River Basin and an Integrated Management Framework Based on Sustainability

The Alfeios River, the longest and highest flow-rate river in Peloponnisos, constitutes an important water resource and ecosystem in Greece. In the present study, human activities in the Alfeios River Basin are described, and their impacts on water quality and the ecosystem are analyzed; effects resulting from interventions on river geomorphology between Flokas Dam and the river delta are determined. These actions have caused significant adverse impacts on the infrastructure (the dam, railroad, and road bridges), the level of aquifer water table and area water uses, and the aquatic and riparian ecosystem. A general integrated management strategy is formulated and a master management plan is proposed for resolving management problems in river basins. The plan considers local conditions and national requirements and complies with the European Communities legislation; it would help prevent further basin deterioration, improve water quality, and protect water resources and ecosystems in the area in accordance to sustainable development. The Alfeios River Basin serves as a case study in the development of the plan.Published online Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.