AN EVALUATION OF FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATES BASED ON RAINFALL/RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation of flood frequency estimates simulated from a rainfall/runoff model is based on (1) computation of the equivalent years of record for regional estimating equations based on 50 small stream sites in Oklahoma and (2) computation of the bias for synthetic flood estimates as compared to observed estimates at 97 small stream sites with at least 20 years of record in eight eastern states. Because of the high intercorrelation of synthetic flood estimates between watersheds, little or no regional (spatial) information may be added to the network as a result of the modeling activity. The equivalent years of record for the regional estimating equations based totally on synthetic flood discharges is shown to be considerably less than the length of rainfall record used to simulate the runoff. Furthermore, the flood estimates from the rainfall/runoff model consistently underestimate the flood discharges based on observed record, particularly for the larger floods. Depending on the way bias is computed, the synthetic estimate of the 100-year flood discharge varies from 11 to 29 percent less than the value based on observed record. In addition, the correlation between observed and synthetic flood frequency estimates at the same site is also investigated. The degree of correlation between these estimates appears to vary with recurrence interval. Unless the correlation between these two estimates is known, it is not possible to compute a weighted estimate with minimum variance.     

ESTIMATION OF VOLUME-DURATION-FREQUENCY RELATIONS OF UNGAGED SMALL URBAN STREAMS IN OHIO1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes methods for estimating volume-duration-frequency relations of urban streams in Ohio with drainage areas less than 6.5 square miles. The methods were developed to assist engineers in the design of hydraulic structures on urban streams for which temporary storage of water is an important element of the design criteria. Multiple-regression equations were developed for estimating maximum flood volumes of d-hour duration and T-year recurrence interval (dV_T). Maximum annual flood-volume data for all combinations of six durations (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32 hours) and six recurrence intervals (2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years) were analyzed. The significant explanatory variables in the resulting 36 volume-duration-frequency equations are drainage area, average annual precipitation, and basin-development factor. Standard errors of prediction for the 36 dV_T equations range from ±28 percent to ±44 percent.     

THE USE OF FLOOD POTENTIAL INDICES FOR FLOOD PEAK ESTIMATION ON UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

: The construction of a flood peak index map was attempted for use by hydrologists in the simple format of rainfall maps. Since flood peaks are highly dependent on watershed area, the effect of area was removed. By regression analysis flood peaks of 2.33 and 100-year return periods were found to be proportional to watershed area to the 0.8 and 0.7 powers, respectively. Therefore, indices C_{2 33}= Q_{2 33}/_A0.7 were completed at each gage and plotted on a Pennsylvania map. It was attempted to further remove some of the scatter by regression of C with several other watershed parameters like slope, percent forest cover, and watershed shape, but no significant correlation could be found. The index maps, drawn without attenuation of the scatter, can be used by hydrologists to compute flood peaks as Q = CAⁿ (with n = 0.8 and 0.7 for the 2.33 and 100-year flood peaks, respectively). Flood peak safety factors can be based on visual observation of the index variation in the vicinity of the location for which the flood peak estimate is needed.     

Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation for Flood Frequency Curve Derivation: An Application to a Korean Watershed1

Abstract: A mix of causative mechanisms may be responsible for flood at a site. Floods may be caused because of extreme rainfall or rain on other rainfall events. The statistical attributes of these events differ according to the watershed characteristics and the causes. Traditional methods of flood frequency analysis are only adequate for specific situations. Also, to address the uncertainty of flood frequency estimates for hydraulic structures, a series of probabilistic analyses of rainfall‐runoff and flow routing models, and their associated inputs, are used. This is a complex problem in that the probability distributions of multiple independent and derived random variables need to be estimated to evaluate the probability of floods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to develop a flood frequency curve derivation method driven by multiple random variables and to develop a tool that can consider the uncertainties of design floods. This study focuses on developing a flood frequency curve based on nonparametric statistical methods for the estimation of probabilities of rare floods that are more appropriate in Korea. To derive the frequency curve, rainfall generation using the nonparametric kernel density estimation approach is proposed. Many flood events are simulated by nonparametric Monte Carlo simulations coupled with the center Latin hypercube sampling method to estimate the associated uncertainty. This study applies the methods described to a Korean watershed. The results provide higher physical appropriateness and reasonable estimates of design flood.     

Nonstationarity: Flood Magnification and Recurrence Reduction Factors in the United States1

Vogel, Richard M., Chad Yaindl, and Meghan Walter, 2011. Nonstationarity: Flood Magnification and Recurrence Reduction Factors in the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):464‐474. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00541.x Abstract: It may no longer be reasonable to model streamflow as a stationary process, yet nearly all existing water resource planning methods assume that historical streamflows will remain unchanged in the future. In the few instances when trends in extreme events have been considered, most recent work has focused on the influence of climate change, alone. This study takes a different approach by exploring trends in floods in watersheds which are subject to a very broad range of anthropogenic influences, not limited to climate change. A simple statistical model is developed which can both mimic observed flood trends as well as the frequency of floods in a nonstationary world. This model is used to explore a range of flood planning issues in a nonstationary world. A decadal flood magnification factor is defined as the ratio of the T‐year flood in a decade to the T‐year flood today. Using historical flood data across the United States we obtain flood magnification factors in excess of 2‐5 for many regions of the United States, particularly those regions with higher population densities. Similarly, we compute recurrence reduction factors which indicate that what is now considered the 100‐year flood, may become much more common in many watersheds. Nonstationarity in floods can result from a variety of anthropogenic processes including changes in land use, climate, and water use, with likely interactions among those processes making it very difficult to attribute trends to a particular cause.     

SIMULATION OF TEMPORAL CHANGES IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF CHARACTERISTICS,COON CREEK BASIN,WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: Streamflow for 67 years was simulated for Coon Creek at Coon Valley, Wisconsin, for three conditions in the drainage basin: (1) conditions in the 1930s; (2) conditions in the 1970s, excluding flood-detention reservoirs; and (3) conditions in the 1970s, including flood-detention reservoirs. These simulations showed that the changes in agricultural practices over 40 years (1940–80) reduced the 100-year flood by 53 percent (from 38,900 to 18,300 cubic feet per second). The flood-detention reservoirs reduced the 100-year flood by an additional 17 percent (to 15,100 cubic feet per second). The simulation was accomplished by calibrating a precipitation-runoff model to observed rainfall and runoff during two separate periods (1934–40 and 1978–81). Comparisons of model simulations showed that differences between the model calibrations for the two periods were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level.     

FACTORS AFFECTING FLOODS FROM WATERSHEDS IN HUMID REGIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OHIO1

This paper describes the results of a study of hydrologic factors affecting floods from humid region in northeastern Ohio. Statistical multiple correlation analysis was used to relate floods to hydrologic and basin characteristics. Results of the study emphasize that the characteristics of floods from small and large watersheds are so significantly different that the two problems cannot be combined into one solution. The studies show that the most important hydrologic characteristics in large watersheds were: drainage area size and main channel slope. For small watersheds the most important hydrologic characteristics were: drainage area size, rainfall intensity and soil index. For watershed effect by reservoir storage it was found that: (1) small drainage areas are relatively more affected by storage than large drainage areas; (2) storage of less than 25 acre feet per square mile will not have significant effect on the mean annual flood (for drainage area above 70 square miles).     

A Framework to Develop Nationwide Flooding Extents Using Climate Models and Assess Forecast Potential for Flood Resilience

The methods used to simulate flood inundation extents can be significantly improved by high‐resolution spatial data captured over a large area. This paper presents a hydraulic analysis methodology and framework to estimate national‐level floodplain changes likely to be generated by climate change. The hydraulic analysis was performed using existing published Federal Emergency Management Agency 100‐year floodplains and estimated 100‐ and 10‐year return period peak flow discharges. The discharges were estimated using climate variables from global climate models for two future growth scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5. River channel dimensions were developed based on existing regional United States Geological Survey publications relating bankfull discharges with channel characteristics. Mathematic relationships for channel bankfull topwidth, depth, and side slope to contributing drainage area measured at model cross sections were developed. The proposed framework can be utilized at a national level to identify critical areas for flood risk assessment. Existing hydraulic models at these “hot spots” could be repurposed for near–real‐time flood forecasting operations. Revitalizing these models for use in simulating flood scenarios in near–real time through the use of meteorological forecasts could provide useful information for first responders of flood emergencies.     

UNIT HYDROGRAPHS FOR DEVELOPING DESIGN FLOOD HYDROGRAPHS1

ABSTRACT: In Illinois, a procedure has been developed to derive unit hydrographs for generating 100-year and probable maximum flood hydrographs, on the basis of 11 parameters that define the hydrograph shape very well. Regional regressions of these parameters with basin factors show very high correlation. Thus satisfactory values of parameters can be determined for ungaged areas or those with a few years' record. The nonlinearity in unit hydrographs derived from usual floods is largely attributed to mixing within-channel and overbank-flow flood events. To minimize the effects of nonlinearity and to derive unit hydrographa suitable for calculating spillway design floods, use of the proposed method of developing such hydrographs is recommended.     

GENERALIZED LOW-FLOW FREQUENCY RELATIONSHIPS FOR UNGAGED SITES IN MASSACHUSETTS1

ABSTRACT: Regional hydrologic procedures such as generalized least squares regression and streamflow record augmentation have been advocated for obtaining estimates of both flood-flow and low-flow statistics at ungaged sites. While such procedures are extremely useful in regional flood-flow studies, no evaluation of their merit in regional low-flow estimation has been made using actual streamflow data. This study develops generalized regional regression equations for estimating the d-day, T-year low-flow discharge, Q_{d, t}, at ungaged sites in Massachusetts where d = 3, 7, 14, and 30 days. A two-parameter lognormal distribution is fit to sequences of annual minimum d-day low-flows and the estimated parameters of the lognormal distribution are then related to two drainage basin characteristics: drainage area and relief. The resulting models are general, simple to use, and about as precise as most previous models that only provide estimates of a single statistic such as Q_7,10. Comparisons are provided of the impact of using ordinary least squares regression, generalized least squares regression, and streamflow record augmentation procedures to fit regional low-flow frequency models in Massachusetts.     

A New Flood Index for Use in Evaluation of Local Flood Severity: A Case Study of Small Ungauged Catchments in Korea1

Ahn, Jae Hyun and Hyun Il Choi, 2013. A New Flood Index for Use in Evaluation of Local Flood Severity: A Case Study of Small Ungauged Catchments in Korea. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 49(1): 1‐14. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12025 Abstract: The aim of this article is to develop a new index measuring the severity of floods in small ungauged catchments for initial local flood information by the regression analysis between the new flooding index and rainfall patterns. Although a rapid local flood caused by heavy storm in a short period of time is now one of common natural disasters worldwide, such a sudden and violent hydrologic event is difficult to forecast. As local flooding rises rapidly with little or no advance warning, the key to local flood forecasting is to quickly identify when and where local flooding above a threshold is likely to occur. The new flooding index to characterize local floods is measured by the three normalized relative severity factors for the flood magnitude ratio, the rising curve gradient, and the flooding duration time, quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs. The new flooding index implemented for the two selected small ungauged catchments in the Korean Peninsula shows a very high correlation with logarithm of the 2‐h maximum rainfall depth. This study proposes 30 mm of rainfall in a 2‐h period as a basin‐specific guidance of precaution for the incipient local flooding in the two study catchments. It is expected that the best‐fit regression equation between the new flooding index and a certain rainfall rate can provide preliminary observations, the flood threshold, and severity information, for use in a local flood alert system in small ungauged catchments. Editor's note: This paper is part of a featured series on Korean Hydrology. The series addresses the need for a new paradigm of river and watershed management for Korea due to climate and land use changes.     

A MODIFIED RATIONAL FORMULA FOR FLOOD DESIGN IN SMALL BASINS1

ABSTRACT: New formulas and procedures under the framework of the Rational Formula are presented that are applicable to flood design problems for a small basin if the geometry of the basin can be approximated as an ellipse or a rhombus. Instead of making the assumption in the traditional rational formula that the rainfall is uniformly distributed in the whole duration (D_w) of a design storm, the new method modifies that assumption as: the rainfall is uniformly distributed only in each time interval CD) of the design storm hyetograph, thus extending the rational formula applicable to the case that the rainfall duration is less than the basin concentration time (T_c). The new method can be applied to estimate the flood design peak discharge, and to generate the flood hydrograph simultaneously. The derivation of the formulas is provided in detail in this paper, and an example is also included to illustrate how to apply the new formulas to the flood design problems in small basins.     

RAINFALL POINT INTENSITIES IN AN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT: WALNUT GULCH,ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: Point rainfall intensities for a given return period are often used to formulate design storms for rainfall/runoff models to simulate design floods. These design floods are in turn used to design bridges, culverts, and a variety of drainage and flood control structures. The projected rapid growth in the southwestern United States will require very substantial monetary investments in drainage infrastructure. Accurate estimates of point rainfall intensities are critical to ensure both safe designs while not wasting dollars in overdesign. Rainfall point intensities (accumulated rainfall depth over a specified duration) for 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐minute durations for the 2‐, 5‐, 10‐, 25‐, 50‐, and 100‐year return periods were determined for southeast Arizona. Thirty‐five years of rainfall record (1961 to 1995) were used in this study. The records came from 20 stations that were grouped into five sets of four independent stations to extend the rainfall records. The stations are in the USDA‐ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW), which is representative of large portions of the Southwest whose runoff generation is dominated by air‐mass thunderstorms. The 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐minute maximum intensities per year followed log‐normal distributions. The mean point rainfall intensities of the five sets of gages are very close (between 0 and 11 percent) to the NOAA values of the 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐minute durations for all return periods. Much larger differences between the mean point rainfall intensities for all durations were found when these results were compared to those of a previous study done with a shorter rainfall record (between 14 and 33 percent for the 25‐, 50‐, and 100‐year return‐periods). The difference between the largest and the smallest values of point rainfall intensities recorded by each group, for all durations, usually increases as the return period increases.     

Improved Bankfull Discharge Prediction Using 2‐Year Recurrence‐Period Discharge1

Abstract:  Knowledge of bankfull discharge (Q_bf) is essential for planners, engineers, geomorphologists, environmentalists, agricultural interests, developments situated on flood prone lands, surface mining and reclamation activities, and others interested in floods and flooding. In conjunction with estimating Q_bf, regionalized bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships, which relate Q_bf and associated channel dimensions (i.e., width, depth, and cross‐section area) to drainage basin area (A_da), are often used. This study seeks to improve upon the common practice of predicting Q_bf using A_da exclusively. Specifically, we hypothesize that predictions of Q_bf can be improved by including estimates of the 2‐year recurrence‐period discharge (Q₂) in regression models for predicting Q_bf. For testing this hypothesis, we used Q_bf estimates from 30 reports containing data for streams that span 34 hydrologic regions in 16 states. Corresponding values of Q₂ and A_da were compiled from flood‐frequency reports and other sources. By comparing statistical measures (i.e., root mean squared error, coefficient of determination, and Akaike’s information criterion), we determined that predicting Q_bf from Q₂ rather than A_da yields consistently better estimates of Q_bf. Other principal findings are (1) data are needed for at least 12 sites in a region for reliable hydraulic geometry model selection and (2) an approximate range of values for Q_bf/Q₂ is 0.10‐3.0.     

ESTIMATING PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD PROBABILITIES1

ABSTRACT: Methods of computing probabilities of extreme events that affect the design of major engineering structures have been developed for most failure causes, but not for design floods such as the probable maximum flood (PMF). Probabilities for PMF estimates would be useful for economic studies and risk assessments. Reasons for the reluctance of some hydrologists to assign a probability to a PMF are discussed, and alternative methods of assigning a probability are reviewed. Currently, the extrapolation of a frequency curve appears to be the most practical alternative. Using 46 stations in the Mid-Atlantic region, the log-gamma, log-normal, and log-Gumbel distributions were used to estimate PMF probabilities. A 600,000-year return period appears to be a reasonable probability to use for PMFs in the Mid-Atlantic region. The coefficient of skew accounts for much of the variation in computed probabilities.     

ESTIMATING THE Q100 IN BRITISH COLUMBIA: A PRACTICAL PROBLEM IN FOREST HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT. Estimates of peak flows, with specified return periods, are needed in practice for the design of works that affect streams in forested areas. In the province of British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, the new Forest Practices Code specifies the 100-year instantaneous peak flow (Q100) for the design of bridges and culverts for stream crossings under forest roads; and many practitioners are engaged in making such estimates. The state of the art is still quite primitive, very similar to the state of urban hydrology 30 years ago, when popular estimating techniques were used with little consideration given to their applicability. Urban hydrology then evolved on a much more scientific basis, such that within about a 10-year period, standard approaches to design were developed. Forest hydrology should follow the same pattern, at least as far as estimating design flows is concerned. Popular present day design procedures include the rational method and other empirical approaches based on rainfall data, as use of the standard flood frequency approach is limited by the paucity of relevant flow data. Estimating procedures based on peak streamflow measurements and statistics are likely to evolve, and these will include distinctions for rain, snowmelt, and rain on snow floods. Guidelines will also be developed for selecting and applying appropriate procedures for particular areas.     

Climate Change,Atmospheric Rivers,and Floods in California – A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes1

Dettinger, Michael, 2011. Climate Change, Atmospheric Rivers, and Floods in California – A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):514‐523. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00546.x Abstract: Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7‐model ensemble of historical‐climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher‐than‐historical water‐vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm‐temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood‐hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes.     

AutoRAPID: A Model for Prompt Streamflow Estimation and Flood Inundation Mapping over Regional to Continental Extents

This article couples two existing models to quickly generate flow and flood‐inundation estimates at high resolutions over large spatial extents for use in emergency response situations. Input data are gridded runoff values from a climate model, which are used by the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) model to simulate flow rates within a vector river network. Peak flows in each river reach are then supplied to the AutoRoute model, which produces raster flood inundation maps. The coupled tool (AutoRAPID) is tested for the June 2008 floods in the Midwest and the April‐June 2011 floods in the Mississippi Delta. RAPID was implemented from 2005 to 2014 for the entire Mississippi River Basin (1.2 million river reaches) in approximately 45 min. Discretizing a 230,000‐km² area in the Midwest and a 109,500‐km² area in the Mississippi Delta into thirty‐nine 1° by 1° tiles, AutoRoute simulated a high‐resolution (~10 m) flood inundation map in 20 min for each tile. The hydrographs simulated by RAPID are found to perform better in reaches without influences from unrepresented dams and without backwater effects. Flood inundation maps using the RAPID peak flows vary in accuracy with F‐statistic values between 38.1 and 90.9%. Better performance is observed in regions with more accurate peak flows from RAPID and moderate to high topographic relief.     

FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT NEEDS PECULIAR TO ARID CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Many practices followed uniformly nationwide in the federal flood control and floodplain management programs are inappropriate or even counter productive in the arid Utah climate. An analysis of the 130-year Utah flood history, the structural and nonstructural flood programs in the state, and local perceptions obtained by field visits and interviews in 35 Utah communities revealed a number of such inefficiencies. Since flood flows dissipate quickly when they emerge from mountain watersheds onto desert lowlands, risks are concentrated near the apex of alluvial fans, include hazard from mud as well as water flow, and are compounded by canal interception of flood waters. Because of variation in the area flooded from one event to the next, floodplain mapping has tended to show risks too high in mapped areas and too low outside. Traditional channelization carries floods downstream past where they would dissipate naturally. The federal government needs to become more active in developing better flood hazard delineation and structural and nonstructural designs for arid areas. State government can help by providing a forum where communities can exchange experiences, reviewing structural designs prepared by local government, and providing local communities with technical expertise for dealing with federal agencies.     

Braided River Flow and Invasive Vegetation Dynamics in the Southern Alps, New Zealand

In mountain braided rivers, extreme flow variability, floods and high flow pulses are fundamental elements of natural flow regimes and drivers of floodplain processes, understanding of which is essential for management and restoration. This study evaluated flow dynamics and invasive vegetation characteristics and changes in the Ahuriri River, a free-flowing braided, gravel-bed river in the Southern Alps of New Zealand’s South Island. Sixty-seven flow metrics based on indicators of hydrologic alteration and environmental flow components (extreme low flows, low flows, high flow pulses, small floods and large floods) were analyzed using a 48-year flow record. Changes in the areal cover of floodplain and invasive vegetation classes and patch characteristics over 20 years (1991–2011) were quantified using five sets of aerial photographs, and the correlation between flow metrics and cover changes were evaluated. The river exhibits considerable hydrologic variability characteristic of mountain braided rivers, with large variation in floods and other flow regime metrics. The flow regime, including flood and high flow pulses, has variable effects on floodplain invasive vegetation, and creates dynamic patch mosaics that demonstrate the concepts of a shifting mosaic steady state and biogeomorphic succession. As much as 25 % of the vegetation cover was removed by the largest flood on record (570 m³/s, ~50-year return period), with preferential removal of lupin and less removal of willow. However, most of the vegetation regenerated and spread relatively quickly after floods. Some flow metrics analyzed were highly correlated with vegetation cover, and key metrics included the peak magnitude of the largest flood, flood frequency, and time since the last flood in the interval between photos. These metrics provided a simple multiple regression model of invasive vegetation cover in the aerial photos evaluated. Our analysis of relationships among flow regimes and invasive vegetation cover has implications for braided rivers impacted by hydroelectric power production, where increases in invasive vegetation cover are typically greater than in unimpacted rivers.