Tributary Plunging in an Urban Lake (Onondaga Lake): Drivers,Signatures, and Implications1

Abstract: A combination of long‐term fixed‐frequency and robotic monitoring information for a polluted urban lake, Onondaga Lake, New York, and two of its tributaries is used to resolve the propensity for, and occurrences of, tributary plunging. Cooler temperatures (T) and higher salinity (S) are primarily responsible for the elevated density and plunging of one of these polluted streams for the summer through early fall interval. In‐lake transport of this plunging tributary, which receives inputs from combined sewer overflows (CSOs), is tracked by its high S during dry weather, its high turbidity (T_n) with associated lower S (dilution with rainwater) following runoff events, and by its characteristic ionic composition. These signatures are documented extending from the creek mouth, through a connecting navigation channel, through the inflow zone of the lake, and into metalimnetic depths of pelagic portions of the lake. The entry of this polluted tributary below the depth interval(s) of primary production and contact recreation has important implications for the ongoing major rehabilitation program for this lake. The plunging phenomenon diminishes the benefits previously expected for related features of the lake’s water quality from ongoing management efforts to abate CSO inputs and reduce nonpoint nutrient loading from the tributary. Previously this tributary tended to instead enter the upper layers of the lake during the operation of an adjoining soda ash manufacturing facility (closure in 1986), as a result of high lake S caused by the industry’s ionic waste discharge.     

Modeling the Fate and Transport of Plunging Inflows to Onondaga Lake

The transport and fate of two plunging tributaries, Onondaga and Ninemile Creeks, in Onondaga Lake, New York, are quantified based on application of hydrodynamic/transport models. Short‐term transport is simulated with a three‐dimensional Estuary Lake and Coastal Ocean Model (ELCOM), while the longer term fate is represented by a previously validated one‐dimensional model (UFILS4). The validation of ELCOM for the vertical distribution of tributary inflow into the lake's water column is demonstrated for four dye tracer experiments. The models are applied for three years to represent the dynamics of transport and fate for the two tributaries, with ELCOM predictions serving as input for UFILS4. The models together quantify the distribution of these inflows between the upper mixed layer (UML) and stratified depths, and the subsequent transport from stratified depths to the UML by vertical mixing. Substantial short‐term variations are predicted for both tributaries in response to variability in hydrology and weather. Increased inflow to the UML is predicted for high runoff periods. The fraction of Ninemile Creek's inflow directly entering the UML is predicted to be 50% greater than for Onondaga Creek due to Ninemile's lower negative buoyancy. The plunging phenomenon has important water quality implications, by reducing the effective loading to the UML, particularly for constituents with large rates of loss/transformation relative to the rate of vertical transport from stratified depths.     

Resolution and Analysis of Spatial Variations and Patterns in an Urban Lake with Rapid Profiling Instrumentation

Rapid response vertical profiling instrumentation was used to document spatial variability and patterns in a small urban lake, Onondaga Lake, associated with multiple drivers. Paired profiles of temperature, specific conductance (SC), turbidity (T_n), fluorometric chlorophyll a (Chl_f), and nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^?) were collected at >30 fixed locations (a “gridding”) weekly, over the spring to fall interval of several years. These gridding data are analyzed (1) to characterize phytoplankton (Chl_f) patchiness in the lake's upper waters, (2) to establish the representativeness of a single long‐term site for monitoring lake‐wide conditions, and (3) to resolve spatial patterns of multiple tracers imparted by buoyancy effects of inflows. Multiple buoyancy signatures were resolved, including overflows from less dense inflows, and interflows to metalimnetic depths and underflows to the bottom from the plunging of more dense inputs. Three different metrics had utility as tracers in depicting the buoyancy signatures as follows: (1) SC, for salinity‐enriched tributaries and the more dilute river that receives the lake's outflow, (2) T_n, for the tributaries during runoff events, and (3) NO₃^?, for the effluent of a domestic waste treatment facility and from the addition of NO₃^? solution to control methyl mercury. The plunging inflow phenomenon, which frequently prevailed, has important management implications.     

Of Small Streams and Great Lakes: Integrating Tributaries to Understand the Ecology and Biogeochemistry of Lake Superior

Lake Superior receives inputs from approximately 2,800 tributaries that provide nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) to the nearshore zone of this oligotrophic lake. Here, we review the magnitude and timing of tributary export and plume formation in Lake Superior, how these patterns and interactions may shift with global change, and how emerging technologies can be used to better characterize tributary–lake linkages. Peak tributary export occurs during snowmelt‐driven spring freshets, with additional pulses during rain‐driven storms. Instream processing and transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) can be rapid but varies seasonally in magnitude. Tributary plumes with elevated DOC concentration, higher turbidity, and distinct DOM character can be detected in the nearshore during times of high runoff, but plumes can be quickly transported and diluted by in‐lake currents and mixing. Understanding the variability in size and load of these tributary plumes, how they are transported within the lake, and how long they persist may be best addressed with environmental sensors and remote sensing using autonomous and unmanned vehicles. The connections between Lake Superior and its tributaries are vulnerable to climate change, and understanding and predicting future changes to these valuable freshwater resources will require a nuanced and detailed consideration of tributary inputs and interactions in time and space.     

Apportionment of bioavailable phosphorus loads entering Cayuga Lake,New York

The integration of the phosphorus (P) bioavailability concept into a P loading analysis for Cayuga Lake, New York, is documented. Components of the analyses included the: (1) monitoring of particulate P (PP), soluble unreactive P (SUP), and soluble reactive P (SRP), supported by biweekly and runoff event‐based sampling of the lake's four largest tributaries; (2) development of relationships between tributary P concentrations and flow; (3) algal bioavailability assays of PP, SUP, and SRP from primary tributaries and the three largest point sources; and (4) development of P loading estimates to apportion contributions according to individual nonpoint and point sources, and to represent the effects of interannual variations in tributary flows on P loads. Tributary SRP, SUP, and PP are demonstrated to be completely, mostly, and less bioavailable, respectively. The highest mean bioavailability for PP was observed for the stream with the highest agriculture land use. Point source contributions to the total bioavailable P load (BAP_L) are minor (5%), reflecting the benefit of reductions from recent treatment upgrades. The BAP_L represented only about 26% of the total P load, because of the large contribution of the low bioavailable PP component. Most of BAP_L (>70%) is received during high flow intervals. Large interannual variations in tributary flow and coupled BAP_L will tend to mask future responses to changes in individual inputs.     

PHOSPHORUS LOADING TO A MOUNTAIN RESERVOIR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

Phosphorus loading from precipitation and more than a dozen tributaries of Big Beat Lake, Woman, was determined for the period from January to December 1978. Direct precipitation contributed 1120 kg·P·yr^-1 (0.096 g P·m^-2·yr^-1) while tributary runoff contributed 21,560 kg for a total P loading of 1.84 g P·m^-2 Rathbone creek, although accounting for only 4 percent of the hydro-logic input to Big Bear Lake, contributed >27 percent of the annual phosphorus load. Phosphorus loading increased with increased impervious geology and increased development. Nitrogen loading exhibited similar loading patterns. Big Beat Lake is currently eutrophic and is likely to remain eutrophic. Calculations based on Vollenweider's critical phosphorus loading concept indicated that tributary P-loading would have to be reduced by >95 percent to achieve mesotrophic conditions. The completion of Big Bear Dam created a “naturally” eutrophic re mix which dl require proper management to enhance its resource potential.     

Colonies of Cliff Swallows on Highway Bridges: A Source of Escherichia coli in Surface Waters1

Sejkora, Patrick, Mary Jo Kirisits, and Michael Barrett, 2011. Colonies of Cliff Swallows on Highway Bridges: A Source of Escherichia coli in Surface Waters. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1275–1284. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00566.x Abstract: Animals, such as birds, are a source of fecal indicator bacteria and pathogens in the environment. Our objective was to determine whether a colony of cliff swallows nesting underneath a bridge would yield a measurable increase in fecal indicator bacteria (specifically Escherichia coli) in the underlying creek. When the swallows were absent, dry‐weather concentrations of E. coli upstream and downstream of the bridge (in Austin, Texas) were below the Texas contact recreation criteria. When the swallows were present, dry‐weather geometric‐mean E. coli concentrations increased significantly from upstream (43 most probable number [MPN]/100 ml) to downstream (106 MPN/100 ml) of the bridge. One exceedance and one near‐exceedance of the Texas single‐sample contact recreation criterion were observed during the swallows’ nesting phase. When the swallows were present, the downstream E. coli geometric‐mean concentration in storm events (875 MPN/100 ml) was significantly higher than the upstream concentration (356 MPN/100 ml), suggesting that runoff flushes swallow feces from the ground into the creek. Although the loading of E. coli from cliff swallows nesting under bridges can be significant (e.g., dry‐weather loading of 3.1 × 10⁸ MPN/day/nest), the zoonotic potential of the cliff swallow must be examined to determine the risk to human health from contact recreation in waters contaminated with cliff swallow feces.     

Integrating Temporal Inequality into Conservation Planning to Improve Practice Design and Efficacy

In contrast to spatial inequality, there are currently no methods for leveraging information on temporal inequality to improve conservation efficacy. The objective of this study was to use Lorenz curves to quantify temporal inequality in surface runoff and tile drainage, identify controls on nutrient loading in these flowpaths, and develop design flows for structural conservation practices. Surface runoff (n = 94 site‐years) and tile drainage (n = 90 site‐years) were monitored on 40 fields in Ohio. Results showed, on average, 80% of nitrate‐nitrogen, soluble reactive phosphorus (P), and total P loads occurred between 7 and 12 days per year in surface runoff and between 32 and 58 days per year in tile drainage. Similar temporal inequality between discharge and load provided evidence that loading was transport‐limited and highlighted the critical role hydrologic connectivity plays in nutrient delivery from tile‐drained fields. Design flow criterion for sizing structural practices based on load reduction goals was developed by combining Lorenz curves and flow duration curves. Comparing temporal inequality between fields and the Maumee River, the largest tributary to the western Lake Erie Basin, revealed challenges associated with achieving watershed load reduction goals with field‐scale conservation. In‐field (i.e., improved nutrient and water management), edge‐of‐field (i.e., structural practices), and instream practices will all be required to meet nutrient reduction goals from tile‐drained watersheds.     

Modeling Water Quantity and Sulfate Concentrations in the Devils Lake Watershed Using Coupled SWAT and CE‐QUAL‐W2

Devils Lake is an endorheic lake in the Red River of the North basin in northeastern North Dakota. During the last two decades, the lake water level has risen by nearly 10 m, causing floods that have cost more than 1 billion USD in mitigation measures. Another increase of approximately 1.5 m in the lake water level would cause spillage into the Sheyenne River. To alleviate this potentially catastrophic spillage, two artificial outlets were constructed. However, the artificial drainage of water into the Sheyenne River raises water quality concerns because the Devils Lake water contains significantly higher concentrations of dissolved solids, particularly sulfate. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was coupled with the CE‐QUAL‐W2 model to simulate both water balance and sulfate concentrations in the lake. The SWAT model performed well in simulating daily flow in tributaries with E_NS > 0.5 and |PBIAS| < 25%, and reproduced the lake water level with a root mean square error of 0.35 m for the study period from 1995 to 2014. The water temperature and sulfate concentrations simulated by CE‐QUAL‐W2 for the lake are in general agreement with the field observations. The model results show that the operation of the two outlets since August 2005 has lowered the lake level by 0.70 m. Furthermore, the models show pumping water from the two outlets raises sulfate concentrations in the Sheyenne River from ~100 to >500 mg/L. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

“Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models” by Dale M. Robertson and David A. Saad2

Richards, R. Peter, Ibrahim Alameddine, J. David Allan, David B. Baker, Nathan S. Bosch, Remegio Confesor, Joseph V. DePinto, David M. Dolan, Jeffrey M. Reutter, and Donald Scavia, 2012. Discussion –“Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models” by Dale M. Robertson and David A. Saad. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐10. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12006 Abstract: Results from the Upper Midwest Major River Basin (MRB3) SPARROW model and underlying Fluxmaster load estimates were compared with detailed data available in the Lake Erie and Ohio River watersheds. Fluxmaster and SPARROW estimates of tributary loads tend to be biased low for total phosphorus and high for total nitrogen. These and other limitations of the application led to an overestimation of the relative contribution of point sources vs. nonpoint sources of phosphorus to eutrophication conditions in Lake Erie, when compared with direct estimates for data‐rich Ohio tributaries. These limitations include the use of a decade‐old reference point (2002), lack of modeling of dissolved phosphorus, lack of inclusion of inputs from the Canadian Lake Erie watersheds and from Lake Huron, and the choice to summarize results for the entire United States Lake Erie watershed, as opposed to the key Western and Central Basin watersheds that drive Lake Erie’s eutrophication processes. Although the MRB3 SPARROW model helps to meet a critical need by modeling unmonitored watersheds and ranking rivers by their estimated relative contributions, we recommend caution in use of the MRB3 SPARRROW model for Lake Erie management, and argue that the management of agricultural nonpoint sources should continue to be the primary focus for the Western and Central Basins of Lake Erie.     

Model Calculations of Total Maximum Daily Loads of Mercury for Drainage Lakes1

Abstract: The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework watershed model was enhanced to simulate the transport and fate of mercury and to calculate the fish mercury concentrations (FMC) attained by fish through the food web. The model was applied to Western Lake Superior Basin of Minnesota, which has many peat lands and lakes. Topographic, land use, and soil data were used to set up the model. Meteorology and precipitation chemistry data from nearby monitoring stations were compiled to drive the model. Simulated flow and mercury concentrations for several stream stations were comparable to available data. The model was used to perform mercury total maximum daily load calculations for two contrasting drainage lakes (Wild Rice Lake and Whiteface Reservoir). The model results for wet deposition, dry deposition, evasion, watershed yield, and soil sequestration of mercury were comparable with available actual data. The model predicted lake ice cover from November to April and weak stratification in summer, typical of shallow lakes in cold regions. The simulated sulfate decrease and methylmercury increase near the lake bottom in late summer are caused by sulfate reduction and mercury methylation that occur in the surficial sediment. Simulated FMC were within the range of observed values and the R² of correlation between the simulated and observed FMC was 0.77. Under the 1989‐2004 base condition, the average simulated FMC of four‐year‐old walleye was 0.31 μg/g for Whiteface Reservoir and 0.15 μg/g for Wild Rice Lake. The FMC criterion in Minnesota is 0.2 μg/g. Wild Rice Lake already meets this criterion without any load reduction. The model showed that a 65% reduction in atmospheric mercury deposition will not, by itself, allow Whiteface Reservoir to meet the criterion in 15 years. Additional best management practices will be needed to reduce 50% of the watershed input.     

Persistence and Microbial Source Tracking of Escherichia coli at a Swimming Beach at Lake of the Ozarks State Park,Missouri

The Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) has closed or posted advisories at public beaches at Lake of the Ozarks State Park in Missouri because of Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration exceedances in recent years. Spatial and temporal patterns of E. coli concentrations, microbial source tracking, novel sampling techniques, and beach‐use patterns were studied during the 2012 recreational season to identify possible sources, origins, and occurrence of E. coli contamination at Grand Glaize Beach (GGB). Results indicate an important source of E. coli contamination at GGB was E. coli released into the water column by bathers resuspending avian‐contaminated sediments, especially during high‐use days early in the recreational season. Escherichia coli concentrations in water, sediment, and resuspended sediment samples all decreased throughout the recreational season likely because of decreasing lake levels resulting in sampling locations receding away from the initial spring shoreline as well as natural decay and physical transport out of the cove. Weekly MDNR beach monitoring, based solely on E. coli concentrations, at GGB during this study inaccurately predicted E. coli exceedances, especially on weekends and holidays. Interestingly, E. coli of human origin were measured at concentrations indicative of raw sewage in runoff from an excavation of a nearby abandoned septic tank that had not been used for nearly two years.     

Nutrient Response Modeling in Falls of the Neuse Reservoir

In order to study system responses of Falls of the Neuse Reservoir (Falls Lake) to varied nutrient loadings, a coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic and eutrophication model was applied. The model was calibrated using 2005 and 2006 intensive survey data, and validated using 2007 survey data. Compared with historical hydrological records, 2005 and 2007 were considered as dry years and 2006 was recognized as a normal year. Relatively higher nutrient fluxes from the sediment were specified for dry year model simulations. The differences were probably due to longer residence time and hence higher nutrient retention rate during dry years in Falls Lake. During the normal year of 2006, approximately 70% of total nitrogen (TN) and 80% of total phosphorus (TP) were delivered from the tributaries; about 20% (TN and TP) were from the sediment bottom. During the dry years of 2005 and 2007, the amount of TN released from sediment was equivalent to that introduced from the tributaries, indicating the critical role of nutrient recycling within the system in dry years. The model results also suggest that both nitrogen and phosphorus are limiting phytoplankton growth in Falls Lake. In the upper part of the lake where high turbidity was observed, nitrogen limitation appeared to dominate. Scenario model runs also suggest that great nutrient loading reductions are needed for Falls Lake to meet the water quality standard.     

Dry Weather Water Quality Loadings in Arid,Urban Watersheds of the Los Angeles Basin,California, USA1

Abstract: Dry weather runoff in arid, urban watersheds may consist entirely of treated wastewater effluent and/or urban nonpoint source runoff, which can be a source of bacteria, nutrients, and metals to receiving waters. Most studies of urban runoff focus on stormwater, and few have evaluated the relative contribution and sources of dry weather pollutant loading for a range of constituents across multiple watersheds. This study assessed dry weather loading of nutrients, metals, and bacteria in six urban watersheds in the Los Angeles region of southern California to estimate relative sources of each constituent class and the proportion of total annual load that can be attributed to dry weather discharge. In each watershed, flow and water quality were sampled from storm drain and treated wastewater inputs, as well as from in‐stream locations during at least two time periods. Data were used to calculate mean concentrations and loads for various sources. Dry weather loads were compared with modeled wet weather loads under a range of annual rainfall volumes to estimate the relative contribution of dry weather load. Mean storm drain flows were comparable between all watersheds, and in all cases, approximately 20% of the flowing storm drains accounted for 80% of the daily volume. Wastewater reclamation plants (WRP) were the main source of nutrients, storm drains accounted for almost all the bacteria, and metals sources varied by constituent. In‐stream concentrations reflected major sources, for example nutrient concentrations were highest downstream of WRP discharges, while in‐stream metals concentrations were highest downstream of the storm drains with high metals loads. Comparison of wet vs. dry weather loading indicates that dry weather loading can be a significant source of metals, ranging from less than 20% during wet years to greater than 50% during dry years.     

A HYDRODYNAMIC MODELING STUDY TO DETERMINE THE OPTIMUM WATER INTAKE LOCATION IN LAKE PALDANG,KOREA1

A three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to Lake Paldang, South Korea. The lake has three inflows, of which Kyoungan Stream has the smallest flow rate and poorest water quality. Since all drinking water intake stations are located near the confluence of Kyoungan Stream within the lake, this contaminated tributary may have a significant impact on the quality of drinking water sources. The optimum drinking water intake location was determined from the applied model. The model was calibrated and verified using the data measured under different hydrological conditions. The model results were in reasonable agreement with the field measurements in both calibration and verification. The circulation and spreading patterns of the incoming flows in the lake, as well as their composition ratios to the drinking water intakes were determined from the model, and three alternative intake locations were proposed. The simulation results suggested that the horizontal and vertical relocations of the intake aqueduct could significantly decrease the composition ratio of the contaminated water. From this study, it was concluded that the three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model could successfully simulate the temporal and spatial mixing patterns of incoming flows and become a useful tool in determining the optimum water intake location in Lake Paldang.     

SEDIMENT,NITRATE, AND AMMONIUM IN SURFACE RUNOFF FROM TWO TAHOE BASIN SOIL TYPES 1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have addressed the natural pollution potential of pristine subalpine forested watersheds on a site-specific basis. Consequently, specific source and amounts of nutrient discharge to tributaries of the Tahoe Basin are difficult to identify. The sediment content and nitrate and ammonium levels in surface runoff from two soil types (Meeks and Umpa), four plot conditions (wooded natural and disturbed, open natural and disturbed), and three slopes (gentle, moderate, and steep) were studied using rainfall simulation that applied a 9 cm h¹, 1-h event. A significant (P ≤ 0.005) two-way interaction between soil type and plot condition affected runoff nitrate concentration. Runoff from natural or disturbed open plots contained significantly (P = 0.05) greater nitrate than wooded plots. Peak concentrations of nitrate commonly occurred during early runoff, suggesting that peak nitrate discharge to Lake Tahoe tributaries can be expected during early runoff from snowmelt and summer precipitation events. The highest nitrate runoff concentration and 1-h cumulative loading from the 0.46 m² plots were 6.7 mg L-¹ (Umpa, open natural, 15–30 percent slope), and 0.7 mg (Umpa, open natural, ≥ 30 percent slope), respectively. Ammonium in surface runoff was generally below detection limits (≤ 0.05 μg L^?1). No statistical relationship between runoff nitrate and sediment discharge was detected.     

Estimating Sediment and Nutrient Loads in Four Western Lake Superior Streams

Total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) have been shown to be strongly correlated with turbidity in watersheds. High‐frequency in situ turbidity can provide estimates of these potential pollutants over a wide range of hydrologic conditions. Concentrations and loads were estimated in four western Lake Superior trout streams from 2005 to 2010 using regression models relating continuous turbidity data to grab sample measures of TSS and TP during differing flow regimes. TSS loads estimated using the turbidity surrogate were compared with those made using FLUX software, a standard assessment technique based on discharge and grab sampling for TSS. More traditional rating curve methodology was not suitable because of the high variability in the particulates vs. discharge relationship. Stream‐specific turbidity and TSS data were strongly correlated (r² = 0.5 to 0.8; p < 0.05) and less so for TP (r² = 0.3 to 0.7; p < 0.05). Near‐continuous turbidity monitoring (every 15 min) provided a good method for estimating both TSS and TP concentration, providing information when manual sample collection was unlikely, and allowing for detailed analyses of short‐term responses of flashy Lake Superior tributaries to highly variable weather and hydrologic conditions while the FLUX model typically resulted in load estimates greater than those determined using the turbidity surrogate, with 17/23 stream years having greater FLUX estimates for TSS and 18/23 for TP.     

Nutrient fluxes in a eutrophic coastal Louisiana freshwater lake

Nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in a eutrophic Louisiana freshwater lake system (Lac des Allemands) was studied. Nutrients from runoff entering the lake, as well as sediment-interstitial and lake water nitrogen and phosphorus fractions, were measured seasonally. Sedimentation rates in the lake were determined using¹³⁷Cs dating.Phosphorus levels in the lake were found to be largely dependent on concentrations in the incoming bayou water from upland drainage. Lake water concentrations appear to respond to fluctuations in incoming waters. Laboratory equilibrium studies showed bottom sediments in the lake are a major sink for the incoming dissolved orthophosphate phosphorus. Total nitrogen concentrations in the lake water generally exceeded incoming runoff concentrations, suggesting fixation by the large blue-green algae population in the lake as being the major source of nitrogen to the system.Sedimentation ranged from 0.44 cm/year to 0.81 cm/year, depending on the proximity to the inlet bayous. Even though the lake is eutrophic the sediment served as a buffer by removing large amounts of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus through sedimentation processes. Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus were accumulating in the sediment at rates of 60, 7.1, and 1.1 g/m²/year, respectively.The water quality of the lake is likely to continue to decline unless measures are taken to reduce municipal, industrial, and agricultural inputs of phosphorus into the lake.     

FACTORS AFFECTING SALINITY REDUCTION IN LAKE TARPON,PINELLAS COUNTY,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Following an enclosure of a sink-hole connecting Lake Tarpon to the Gulf of Mexico, the chloride concentration of lake waters decreased. Water and chloride budgets for the lake in 1975 were prepared, and predictions using the model of Lerman and Brunskill (1971) were made as to the time required for the lake to achieve fresh water status. Model verification indicated good agreement with predictions in 1976; however, data on [C1^-] for 1977 and 1978 are not as supportive of the model used. The information concerning the Lake Tarpon watershed provided by this latter fact is discussed.     

Evaluation of a Watershed Model for Estimating Daily Flow Using Limited Flow Measurements1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash‐Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and mean relative error values of daily flow estimations were 0.66 and 15% for calibration, and 0.56 and 4% for validation, respectively. Also, further evaluation of the model’s estimation of flow at multiple locations was conducted with parametric paired t‐test and nonparametric sign test at a 95% confidence level. Among the five main stem stations, four stations were statistically shown to have good agreement between predicted and measured flows. SWAT underestimated the flow of the fifth main stem station possibly because of the existence of complex flood control measures near to the station. SWAT estimated the daily flow at one tributary station well, but with relatively large errors for the other two tributaries. The spatial pattern of predicted flows matched the measured ones well. Overall, it was concluded from the graphical comparisons and statistical analyses of the model results that SWAT was capable of reproducing continuous daily flows based on limited flow data as is the case in the UOC watershed.