Consistent assessments of pathways toward sustainable development and climate stabilization

Many of the numerous difficult issues facing the world today involve relationships entailing trade‐offs and synergies. This study quantitatively assesses some alternative scenarios using integrated assessment models, and provides several indicators relating to sustainable development and climate change, such as indicators of income (per capita GDP), poverty, water stress, food access, sustainable energy use, energy security, and ocean acidification, with high consistencies among the indicators within a scenario. According to the analyses, economic growth helps improve many of the indicators for sustainable development. On the other hand, climate change will induce some severe impacts such as ocean acidification under a non‐climate intervention scenario (baseline scenario). Deep emission reductions, such as to 2°C above the pre‐industrial level, could cause some sustainable development indicators to worsen. There are complex trade‐offs between climate change mitigation levels and several sustainable development indicators. A delicately balanced approach to economic growth will be necessary for sustainable development and responses to climate change.     

Trends in the intensity of copper use in Japan since 1960

Between 1960 and 2000, Japan's real GDP grew 620%. However, its consumption of copper increased only 345%, thanks to a 38% decline in the country's intensity of copper use. In light of concerns today over the possible impact of future economic development in China, India, and other developing countries on the long-run availability of mineral resources, this study proposes to explore the causes for this dramatic decline in the Japanese intensity of copper use.For some time, we have known that the intensity of metal use within a country depends on its level of economic development, usually measured by per capita income, as well as on technological change, long-run price trends, and other factors whose influence varies, more or less, with time. This study finds that rising per capita income has increased the intensity of copper use in Japan over the entire period examined. Moreover, this positive effect is expected to continue until per capita income—$44,830 in 2000—reaches $53,000. Thereafter, further advances will tend to reduce the intensity of copper use. Conversely, new copper-saving technologies and other time-related variables have on average reduced the intensity of copper use by 2.9% a year, an amount sufficient not only to offset the positive effects of growing per capita income but also to reduce intensity of use by 38%.     

上海文化产业及贸易发展影响因素的灰色关联度分析

在经济全球化浪潮的推动下，文化影响力日益加大，文化产业成为各国竞相争抢的战略高地。文化贸易作为一种新的贸易形态实现了迅猛增长，而国与国竞争的焦点在于主要节点城市实力的较量。采用灰色关联方法，从经济发展、产业规模、市场需求和科研创新四个方面选取14个指标，对上海文化产业及贸易发展的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明，城乡居民家庭人均可支配收入等因素对上海文化产业发展有着重要的关联影响，而人均生产总值和互联网用户普及率等因素对上海文化贸易有着重要的影响，但科技成果与文化产业及贸易的关联度均较小，尤其是外贸依存度的关联影响不显著。     

Operational Indicators for Measuring Agricultural Sustainability in Developing Countries

This paper reviews relevant literature on the sustainability indicators theoretically proposed and practically applied by scholars over the past 15 years. Although progress is being made in the development and critical analysis of sustainability indicators, in many cases existing or proposed indicators are not the most sensitive or useful measures in developing countries. Indicator selection needs to meet the following criteria: relative availability of data representing the indicators, sensitivity to stresses on the system, existence of threshold values and guidelines, predictivity, integratability and known response to disturbances, anthropogenic stresses, and changes over time. Based on these criteria, this paper proposes a set of operational indicators for measuring agricultural sustainability in developing countries. These indicators include ecological indicators involving amounts of fertilizers and pesticides used, irrigation water used, soil nutrient content, depth to the groundwater table, water use efficiency, quality of groundwater for irrigation, and nitrate content of both groundwater and crops. Economic indicators include crop productivity, net farm income, benefit–cost ratio of production, and per capita food grain production. Social indicators encompass food self-sufficiency, equality in food and income distribution among farmers, access to resources and support services, and farmers knowledge and awareness of resource conservation. This article suggests that the selection of indicators representing each aspect of sustainability should be prioritized according to spatial and temporal characteristics under consideration.     

Survey of household waste composition and quantities in Abuja,Nigeria

Inadequate management of household solid waste is a serious problem in many developing cities. The study aimed to evaluate the quantities and composition of household solid waste generation in Abuja within different socioeconomic groups. The wastes from 74 households across different socioeconomic levels in Abuja were collected, weighted and classified on a daily basis for seven days in February 2012. The result showed that the average daily per capita household waste generation is 0.634 kg/capita/day. The characteristic of solid waste in Abuja are typical for the developing cities and dominated by organic waste. Households waste consisted of 63.6% organic waste, 9.7% paper, 8.7% plastics, 3.2% metal, 2.6% glass, 1.6% textile and 10.6% others (unclassified) and the bulk density was 240 kg/m³. The evaluation of relationship between income and daily per capita household waste generation showed a positive relationship. The study revealed a statistically significant difference between household size and daily per capita household waste generation in high-income group; a slight significant difference between household size and daily per capita household waste generation in medium income group and no statistically significant difference between household size and daily per capita household waste generation in low-income group.     

昆明市特征污染物增长的环境库兹涅茨特征研究

本文通过对昆明市主城区2002~2007年人均GDP与城市污染物增长数据进行分析并拟合,计算表明:昆明市主城区工业废水排放倒"U"型曲线的转折点位于人均GDP 24785.72元处,对应的工业废水峰值,约1426.77万吨。SO2排放倒"U"型曲线转折点位于24005元处,而对应的SO2排放峰值,约29417.6吨。说明昆明市工业废水及SO2污染已经越过EKC的理论计算转折点,将来一段时间昆明市污染物排放总量将会继续减缓。     

Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for water footprint indicator: a cross-sectional study

The water footprint analysis has become a rapidly growing field of research although little attention has been paid to its relationship with economic growth. Using the available cross-section data, this study examines how the per capita water footprint varies as a function of per capita income within the environmental Kuznets curve framework at both aggregated and disaggregated level of water footprint. In addition, the issue of omitted variables is investigated by incorporating a number of control variables. Estimation results show no evidence in favour of an inverted-U environmental Kuznets curve, but they yield, in most cases, an evolution into an N-shaped relationship. This means that water footprint rises in the beginning with incomes, then falls as nations grow wealthier to rise again at very high income levels. This calls into question the traditional economic view of income growth sustainability as it applies to water.     

Poverty and biodiversity in rural areas based on two investigations in Pujiang County,China

This study presents an integrated framework for the analysis of options of agricultural development and natural resource management at the ecosystem level. Pujiang County in Zhejiang Province, China, is used as a case-study area. The IMGLP model is applied to maximize regional agricultural economic surplus and labor market conditions in Pujiang. The consequences of four poverty reduction strategies (intensification of production, diversification toward livestock production, land expansion, and exit from agriculture) are determined for a set of regional poverty and biodiversity indicators. Diversification seems to be the most promising poverty reduction strategy, but requires an efficient use of animal manure in cropping systems to avoid environmental problems. Improved nutrient management in cropping systems is effective in reducing the regional nitrogen surplus, but less effective in increasing per capita income. The exit strategy is beneficial for reducing poverty and achieving biodiversity, but may have important social consequences that are not addressed in this study. Further reduction of rural poverty is hampered by labor constraints during the harvesting period for high-value crops such as vegetables and fruits. These constraints can be overcome by intensive research and development in the field of agricultural mechanization.     

Environmental regionalization for the management of township and village enterprises in China.

Environmental regionalization (ER) is the basis of environmental assessment, prediction, planning and decision-making. ER techniques were applied to the management of Township and Village Enterprises (TVEs) in China. TVEs are generally middle and small-scale enterprises widely distributed in rural areas with rapid development and high discharge rates of pollutants, which impact heavily on the environment. A set of 13 indicators was chosen to evaluate TVEs in China: (1) runoff depth (P = 75%); (2) rainfall; (3) atmospheric pollution coefficient; (4) percent of forest coverage; (5) national income per capita; (6) economic density of TVEs; (7) population density; (8) environmental management staff at county level; (9) cultivated area per capita; (10) technical advancement of TVEs; (11) environmental impact of TVE industrial structure; (12) ratio of waste water to runoff; and (13) coal consumption density. Fuzzy cluster analysis was employed to conduct quantitative classification. Four zones and seven subzones were obtained. The classification system was adapted to the requirements of environmental management for TVEs at national level.     

贵州普定后寨河流域岩溶生态脆弱性的模糊综合评价

本文介绍了基于模糊数学理论的岩溶生态脆弱性评价方法，选取了平均坡度、森林覆盖率、石山裸露、耕地面积、水土流失、人口密度、．人均耕地、人均粮食、人均收入9个主要因素作为评价因素，并以贵州省普定县后寨河流域为例进行了具体计算与分析。评判结果表明：该研究区生态脆弱形势较为严重，在13个典型喀斯特村中有7个属于强度脆弱或极强度脆弱区，2个属于中度脆弱，属于轻度脆弱的有4个，因而需大力加强生态环境保护和重建工作。     

Total-factor water efficiency of regions in China

Water is a limited and unevenly distributed resource in China, with the per capita amount of water resource there only about one-fourth of the world's average. However, water is an essential resource for people's lives and economic development. Over the past two decades China has seen the fruit of its rapid economic growth; nevertheless, a severe water shortage is behind this prosperous scenario and is becoming worse. Efficient water supply is certainly essential for the sustainable development of human beings. This paper analyzes water efficiency by incorporating water as an input as well as using conventional inputs such as labor employment and capital stock. An index of a water adjustment target ratio (WATR) is established from the production frontier constructed by data envelopment analysis (DEA) including water as an input. The water efficiency of regions is obtained from a total-factor framework with both residential and productive water use. A U-shape relation is discovered between the total-factor water efficiency and per capita real income among areas in China. The central area has the worst water efficiency ranking and the total adjustment amount of water used there is around three-fourths of China's total. More efficient production processes and advanced technologies need to be adopted in the central area to improve its water efficiency, especially for its productive use of water.     

The economics of adoption and management of alley cropping in Haiti

The Haitian people are facing serious problems of environmental degradation that threaten the economic livelihoods of many resource-poor farmers. Structures to retard the process of soil loss have been adopted reluctantly and, even when adopted, the management and maintenance have been less than desirable. We evaluate the factors that influence the adoption and management of alley cropping in Haiti. Results of the adoption model show that institutional factors, such as membership in a local peasant organization and training in soil conservation practices, favorably influence adoption. Socio-economic factors such as gender, per capita income, and interaction between education and per capita income also significantly influence adoption of alley cropping in Gaita and Bannate. The management of alley cropping is influenced by demographic, socio-economic, institutional, and physical factors. The relative importance of each factor on the probability of adoption and management of alley cropping varies from one variable to another. The study generates important information for resource allocation in the establishment of alley cropping as a soil conservation structure.     

1980--2009年中国经济增长对化石能源消耗的依赖关系

随着中国经济的发展，我国高化石能源消耗问题也越来越突出。计算了1980--2009年中国人均化石能源足迹，并将其与人均GDP联系起来进行研究，发现在这30年中我国人均化石能源消耗和人均GDP都呈现逐步增长趋势，在用E—G两步法进行协整检验的过程中发现两者存在长期稳定的均衡关系；采用格兰杰因果检验进行进一步的验证分析发现，我国人均化石能源足迹和人均GDP之间互为因果关系，进一步说明我国经济发展对能源消耗尤其是化石能源消耗具有依赖性，且经济发展会进一步刺激化石能源使用的增加。因此，采取节能降耗措施应从调整产业结构和能源消费结构入手，在降低能耗期间我国会出现经济增长放缓的现象。     

Household solid waste generation and characteristic in a Mekong Delta city,Vietnam

This study was undertaken to evaluate the quantity and composition of household solid waste to identify opportunities for waste recycling in Can Tho city, the capital city of the Mekong Delta region in southern Vietnam. Two-stage survey of 100 households was conducted for dry season and rainy season in 2009. Household solid waste was collected from each household and classified into 10 physical categories and 83 subcategories. The average household solid waste generation rate was 285.28 g per capita per day. The compostable and recyclable shares respectively accounted for 80.02% and 11.73%. The authors also analyzed the relations between some socioeconomic factors and household solid waste generation rates by physical categories and subcategories. The household solid waste generation rate per capita per day was positively correlated with the population density and urbanization level, although it was negatively correlated with the household size. The authors also developed mathematical models of correlations between the waste generation rates of main physical categories and relevant factors, such as household size and household income. The models were proposed by linear models with three variables to predict household solid waste generation of total waste, food waste, and plastic waste. It was shown that these correlations were weak and a relationship among variables existed. Comparisons of waste generation by physical compositions associated with different factors, such as seasonal and daily variation were conducted. Results presented that the significant average differences were found by the different seasons and by the different days in a week; although these correlations were weak. The greenhouse gas baseline emission was also calculated as 292.25 g (CO₂ eq.) per capita per day from biodegradable components.     

Mining and corruption

This study examines the links between mineral dependency and corruption. Specifically, it develops a cross-section econometric model that estimates the effects of per capita income, fuel exports, non-fuel exports, and average per unit value of mineral exports on corruption.     

INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND FOR WATER IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES1

ABSTRACT: The income and proce elasticity of demand for domestic water is estimated for Penang Island, Malaysia. A cross-sectional analysis of a random sample of 1400 households indicated an income-elasticity of zero for low-income families (per capita income less than US$300) and an elasticity of 0.2-0.4 for higher-income families. A time-series analysis of a subsample of individuals of varying income levels suggests a short-run price elasticity of -0.1 to -0.2. The implications of these results for demand forecasting are discussed.     

Resource exploitation and cross-region growth trajectories: nonparametric estimates for Chile

As a sector of primary concern for national development strategies, mining keeps stimulating an intensive debate in Chile, regarding its role for long-term growth. Partly drawn on theoretical contributions to growth and mineral resource accounting, this analysis assesses patterns of economic growth across Chilean regions. The theoretical and methodological rationale for focusing on weak sustainability, by testing convergence across regions in a distribution dynamics perspective, is first discussed. This is followed by a brief review of policy issues and previous empirical findings of concern to Chile's mining and regional growth. Panel data over the period 1960-2001 are analysed, with growth measured in terms of both income per capita as such, and sustainable measures of this variable. Kernel density and quantile regression estimates indicate persistent bimodal (if not possibly trimodal) distribution of nationally standardised regional incomes per capita, whereby conditions for cross-region convergence are matched only within the inner range of this distribution.     

基于聚类分析的我国各地化石能源足迹与经济发展定量研究

利用改进后的化石能源足迹公式计算了2000—2009年我国30个地区的人均化石能源足迹,并分别对2000年和2009年中国各地区的数据进行聚类分析,发现我国地区人均化石能源足迹由无明显地域特征转变为东部高于中西部,经济发达地区高于欠发达地区,且能源使用效率和经济发展水平间联系逐渐加强。通过对不同类别代表性地区人均化石能源足迹的分析判断,以北京、上海和广东为代表的发达地区化石能源消耗增长开始趋于缓和甚至出现小幅下降。     

浙江省环境污染与经济发展关系的实证研究

本文在环境库兹涅茨曲线假设基础上,采用1991—2014年浙江省环境和经济数据,运用回归模型对其环境污染与经济发展的关系进行实证检验。结果表明:浙江工业废水、工业废气、工业SO2排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量均符合EKC假设,其中工业SO2和工业废水人均排放量与人均GDP呈倒U形关系,拐点分别出现在2005年与2010年;工业废气排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量尚处于倒U形左侧上升阶段,其中工业固体废弃物人均产生量已接近拐点。而生活污水排放量与EKC假设并不相符,人均生活污水排放量与人均GDP呈单调递增的线形关系。对EKC驱动因子的分析表明,加强政府环境治理,以不断完善的环境法规推动产业结构升级调整,以持续的技术进步与创新促进关键行业节能减排,有利于克服规模效应,推动浙江环境污染与经济发展的关系早日实现解耦。     

China's Minerals Future: 1985–2005

China has embarked on major economic and social changes to revitalize the Chinese economy, increase labor productivity, and improve the material standard of living of the Chinese people. This paper assumes that China will achieve its goal of a per capita income of US$800 in 2000, open-door policies will be maintained, and nonfuel mineral commodity consumption will increase as GDP per capita increases. Projections are made of production, trade and consumption of 14 nonfuel minerals for the period 1985–2005. China is projected to increase its net imports to these 14 minerals from about US$5000 million in 1985 to about US$12000 million in constant dollars in 2005. China's investment climate will become more favorable for those multinational companies that bring with them clear comparative advantages in minerals exploration, mining and processing technologies and marketing, and are prepared to develop in-depth Chinese expertise.