ESTIMATING MEAN AND VARIANCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLES WITH BELOW DETECTION LIMIT OBSERVATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Left-censoring of data sets complicates subsequent statistical analyses. Generally, substitution or deletion methods provide poor estimates of the mean and variance of censored samples. These substitution and deletion methods include the use of values above the detection limit (DL) only, or substitution of 0, DL/2 or the DL for the below DL values during the calculation of mean and variance. A variety of statistical methods provides better estimators for different types of distributions and censoring. Maximum likelihood and order statistics methods compare favorably to the substitution or deletion methods. Selected statistical methods applicable to left-censoring of environmental data sets are reviewed with the purpose of demonstrating the use of these statistical methods for coping with Type I (and Type II) left-censoring of normally and log-normally distributed environmental data sets. A PC program (UNCENSOR) is presented that implements these statistical methods. Problems associated with data sets with multiple DLs are discussed relative to censoring methods for life and fatigue tests as recently applied to water quality data sets.     

STATISTICAL TERMINOLOGY: DEFINITIONS AND INTERPRETATION FOR FLOOD PEAK ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: Considerable effort is expended each year in making flood peak estimates at both gaged and ungaged sites. Many methods, both simplistic and complex, have been proposed for making such estimates. The hydrologist that must make an estimate at a particular site is interested in the accuracy of the estimate. Most methods are developed using either statistical analyses or analytical optimization schemes. While publications describing these methods often include some statistical measure of goodness-of-flt, the terminology often does not provide the potential user with an answer to the question,‘How accurate is the estimate?’ That is, statistical terminology often are not used properly, which may lead to a false sense of security. The use of the correct terminology will help potential users evaluate the usefulness of a proposed method and provide a means of comparing different methods. This study provides definitions for terms often used in literature on flood peak estimation and provides an interpretation for these terms. Specific problems discussed include the use of arbitrary levels of significance in statistical tests of hypotheses, the identification of both random and systematic variation in estimates from hydrologic methods, and the difference between accuracy of model calibration and accuracy of prediction.     

Can Volunteers Collect Data that are Comparable to Professional Scientists? A Study of Variables Used in Monitoring the Outcomes of Ecosystem Rehabilitation

Having volunteers collect data can be a cost-effective strategy to complement or replace those collected by scientists. The quality of these data is essential where field-collected data are used to monitor progress against predetermined standards because they provide decision makers with confidence that choices they make will not cause more harm than good. The integrity of volunteer-collected data is often doubted. In this study, we made estimates of seven vegetation attributes and a composite measure of six of those seven, to simulate benchmark values. These attributes are routinely recorded as part of rehabilitation projects in Australia and elsewhere in the world. The degree of agreement in data collected by volunteers was compared with those recorded by professional scientists. Combined results showed that scientists collected data that was in closer agreement with benchmarks than those of volunteers, but when data collected by individuals were analyzed, some volunteers collected data that were in similar or closer agreement, than scientists. Both groups’ estimates were in closer agreement for particular attributes than others, suggesting that some attributes are more difficult to estimate than others, or that some are more subjective than others. There are a number of ways in which higher degrees of agreement could be achieved and introducing these will no doubt result in better, more effective programs, to monitor rehabilitation activities. Alternatively, less subjective measures should be sought when developing monitoring protocols. Quality assurance should be part of developing monitoring methods and explicitly budgeted for in project planning to prevent misleading declarations of rehabilitation success.     

A cross-national perspective on youth environmental attitudes

The environmental attitudes of young people are a growing topic of interest for social scientists. Most research that aims to explain differences in (youth) environmental attitudes focuses on the individual as the level of measurement. There is, however, a growing body of evidence that illustrates that the context within which that individual operates can contribute to their environmental attitudes. Based on the PISA 2006 data, and while controlling for individual characteristics, we tested Inglehart’s ‘objective problems, subjective values’ hypothesis. This hypothesis divides the contextual influences on environmental attitudes into (1) objective problems in the individual’s natural environment and (2) subjective values linked to post-materialistic goals in life. We analyzed both the individual and the country level simultaneously, controlling for compositional effects, by performing a multilevel analysis on the 2006 PISA data for youth environmental attitudes (398,750 15 year olds from 56 countries). At the individual level, the results are generally consistent with the literature; at the contextual level, the stage of development of a country (as a proxy for post-materialistic values) is shown to be unrelated to environmental attitudes. Both natural riches of a country and its environmental problems are shown to positively influence the environmental attitudes of that country’s youth. These results are discussed in relation to the ‘objective problems, subjective values’ hypothesis. The results also point towards the necessity of simultaneously assessing the effect of individual- and contextual-level characteristics on environmental attitudes.     

Spectroscopic approaches for phosphorus speciation in soils and other environmental systems

In the past decades, environmental scientists have become increasingly involved in developing novel approaches for applying emerging spectroscopic techniques to complex environmental matrices. The objective of this review is to convey the most common chemical species of phosphorus reported for soils, sediments, model systems, and waste materials based on analyses by four spectroscopic techniques: X-ray absorption near-edge structure, nuclear magnetic resonance, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy. Unique information is provided by each technique at a level of specificity that depends in part on matrix complexity. The X-ray absorption near-edge structure and nuclear magnetic resonance techniques reveal inorganic and organic P species in intact environmental matrices or in chemical extracts, whereas the Fourier transform infrared and Raman techniques can provide more specific bonding information about mineral or adsorbed P species in model analogs of matrix components. The most common P species in soils and sediments as indicated by spectroscopy are hydroxyapatite and octacalcium phosphate minerals, phosphate adsorbed on Fe- and Al-oxides, pyrophosphates and polyphosphates, phosphate mono- and di-esters, and phosphonates. Continued advancements in spectroscopic methods should improve speciation-based models of P mobilization and transformations in the environment.     

浅析国际环境公约对石油工业的影响

随着人类环境意识、资源意识的不断深化,越来越多的国家签署了国际环境公约。中国石油企业若要进一步参与国际化竞争,在环境保护方面就势必面临更大的挑战与压力。对气候变化框架公约、巴塞尔公约、湿地公约、海洋环境保护公约以及酸雨问题等与石油工业相关的国际环境公约进行了分析及探讨,以期为石油工业适应环境保护工作发展的需要及提高国际竞争力制定相应对策提供参考。     

人工增雨（雪）效果评估方法探索

人工增雨（雪）常用的评估方法为统计检验和物理检验,统计检验需要大量试验样本,且随机化试验在我国难以实现,大量样本无从获得。物理检验目前主要是雷达观测演变状况和飞机直接观测云内微物理参数,由于技术和能力有限,这些方法都难以实现。为了在人工影响天气作业后尽快得出评估结果供政府及环境保护等部门参考,利用雨滴谱记录数据对一次人工增雪作业后的效果进行了评估,发现这些数据在没有常规降雪记录情况下具有一定的参考价值。从评估结果看,人工增雪作业后,降水强度有明显增大的趋势。     

What do significance tests really tell us about the environment?

Routine application of significance tests does not extract the maximum information from environmental data and can lead to misleading conclusions. Reasons leading to this are: a significant result can often be reached merely by collecting enough samples; a statistically significant result is not necessarily practically significant; and reports of the presence or absence of statistically significant differences for multiple tests are not comparable unless identical sample sizes are used. These problems are demonstrated by application to pH data for grazed and retired fields, and by discussion of significance tests used in recent US regulations for groundwater quality. The advantages of equivalence tests, where the tester must state the difference of practical difference, are discussed and applied to the field pH problem. We recommend that environmental managers and scientists pay more attention to statistical power and decide on what is a practical difference. Confidence intervals for the size of the differences, accompanied where necessary by equivalence tests, are the preferred means of addressing the question: “is there a difference of practical significance?”     

Remotely Sensed Data for Ecosystem Analyses: Combining Hierarchy Theory and Scene Models

Remotely sensed data have been used extensively for environmental monitoring and modeling at a number of spatial scales; however, a limited range of satellite imaging systems often constrained the scales of these analyses. A wider variety of data sets is now available, allowing image data to be selected to match the scale of environmental structure(s) or process(es) being examined. A framework is presented for use by environmental scientists and managers, enabling their spatial data collection needs to be linked to a suitable form of remotely sensed data. A six-step approach is used, combining image spatial analysis and scaling tools, within the context of hierarchy theory. The main steps involved are: (1) identification of information requirements for the monitoring or management problem; (2) development of ideal image dimensions (scene model), (3) exploratory analysis of existing remotely sensed data using scaling techniques, (4) selection and evaluation of suitable remotely sensed data based on the scene model, (5) selection of suitable spatial analytic techniques to meet information requirements, and (6) cost–benefit analysis. Results from a case study show that the framework provided an objective mechanism to identify relevant aspects of the monitoring problem and environmental characteristics for selecting remotely sensed data and analysis techniques.     

Evaluation of procedures to estimate biomass on surface coal mine lands reclaimed under the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977

Current surface mine regulations as ascribed under the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 require that mine lands be returned to the approximate original contours (AOC) with an area coverage of at least 70% and to biological productivity equal to or greater than that which existed prior to mining. Six different procedures were evaluated on nine mine sites in northwestern Pennsylvania as to their suitability to estimate aboveground biomass on mines reclaimed as hayland and pastures. Biomass estimates determined by different procedures were compared to those obtained by random clip plots and with landowner estimates of the annual yield from each site. Biomass estimates determined from a disk meter and landowner interviews varied approximately ±10% from those obtained from random clip plots compared to a variation of ±8%–37% for the other procedures. The number of samples required to obtain reliable estimates within ±10% of the mean at 95% confidence intervals varied among the different sampling procedures according to the variance in biomass on the site. Although all procedures may be used either singly or in combination to estimate above ground biomass on reclaimed mine lands, the combination of the disk meter, profile board, and vegetation height is recommended because of their ease of measurement compared to the other procedures.     

Streamflow Depletion Modeling: Methods for an Adaptable and Conjunctive Water Management Decision Support Tool

Groundwater pumping depletes streamflow, which can have significant ecological impacts depending on the magnitude of depletion relative to environmental flow needs. Streamflow depletion estimates from groundwater pumping have been quantified using both analytical and numerical methods, but are not routinely compared to environmental flow needs or used in practical water management tools. Decision support tools that incorporate groundwater dynamics are becoming increasingly necessary for water managers as groundwater regulations become more important in environmental policy, particularly concerning the preservation of environmental flow needs. We develop and apply methods for a web‐based decision support tool for conjunctive groundwater and surface water management, demonstrated using a case study watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Open‐source data are analyzed with a combination of spatial algorithms and previously developed analytical models, such that the tool can be applied to other regions. Streamflow depletion estimates are calculated in four regions in the largely undeveloped Bulkley Valley, British Columbia. Our transparent methodology has geographic and data input flexibility which is a significant improvement on currently existing water management tool methods.     

A multi-disciplinary framework to monetize financial consequences arising from CCS projects and motivate effective financial responsibility

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) holds promise as a safe and effective approach for addressing climate change. However, concern about potential “liability” associated with CCS often is cited as a significant barrier to project deployment. The authors contend that, in this context, the term “liability” is poorly defined and conflates concerns about the uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of potential damages with the need for financial responsibility for long-term stewardship of certified closed sites. This paper offers an analytic framework drawn from damages estimation methodologies used in comparable contexts and incorporates risk-based probabilistic modeling to assist stakeholders in evaluating the potential environmental, human health and financial consequences of CCS projects. Application of the proposed framework will achieve four distinct objectives. First, the outputs of the analyses – monetized damages estimates for adverse impact scenarios coupled with expected loss calculations that reflect scenario probabilities and identify the statistical range of possible outcomes, including “most likely” loss estimates – will help interested stakeholders consider the viability of various investment and financial risk management strategies. Second, the results can be used to develop or negotiate financial assurance instruments for analyzed projects. Third, the results will inform the public policy debate regarding the degree and magnitude of potential financial consequences resulting over the long-term, beyond an established post-closure period. And, fourth, while the detailed conceptual framework, resulting models, impact calculations and valuation analyses may be applied on a site-by-site basis, the site-specific results could be pooled to assess regional and national implications of various risk mitigation and financial risk management policies.     

Using biological data from field studies with multiple reference sites as a basis for environmental management: the risks for false positives and false negatives

Field surveys of biological responses can provide valuable information about environmental status and anthropogenic stress. However, it is quite usual for biological variables to differ between sites or change between two periods of time also in the absence of an impact. This means that there is an obvious risk that natural variation will be interpreted as environmental impact, or that relevant effects will be missed due to insufficient statistical power. Furthermore, statistical methods tend to focus on the risks for Type-I error, i.e. false positives. For environmental management, the risk for false negatives is (at least) equally important. The aim of the present study was to investigate how the probabilities for false positives and negatives are affected by experimental set up (number of reference sites and samples per site), decision criteria (statistical method and α-level) and effect size. A model was constructed to simulate data from multiple reference sites, a negative control and a positive control. The negative control was taken from the same distribution as the reference sites and the positive control was just outside the normal range. Using the model, the probabilities to get false positives and false negatives were calculated when a conventional statistical test, based on a null hypothesis of no difference, was used along with alternative tests that were based on the normal range of natural variation. Here, it is tested if an investigated site is significantly inside (equivalence test) and significantly outside (interval test) the normal range. Furthermore, it was tested how the risks for false positives and false negatives are affected by changes in α-level and effect size. The results of the present study show that the strategy that best balances the risks between false positives and false negatives is to use the equivalence test. Besides tests with tabulated p-values, estimates generated using a bootstrap routine were included in the present study. The simulations showed that the probability for management errors was smaller for the bootstrap compared to the traditional test and the interval test.     

Estimation of upper centile concentrations using historical atrazine monitoring data from community water systems

A survey sampling approach is presented for estimating upper centiles of aggregate distributions of surface water pesticide measurements obtained from datasets with large sample sizes but variable sampling frequency. It is applied to three atrazine monitoring programs of Community Water Systems (CWS) that used surface water as their drinking water source: the nationwide Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) data, the Syngenta Voluntary Monitoring Program (VMP), and the Atrazine Monitoring Program (AMP).The VMP/AMP CWS were selected on the basis of atrazine monitoring history (CWS having at least one annual average concentration from SDWA ≥ 1.6 ppb atrazine since 1997 in the AMP). Estimates of the raw water 95th, 99th, and 99.9th centile atrazine concentrations for the VMP/AMP CWS are 4.82, 11.85, and 34.00 ppb, respectively. The corresponding estimates are lower for the finished drinking water samples, with estimates of 2.75, 7.94, and 22.66 ppb, respectively. Finished water centile estimates for the VMP/AMP CWS using only the SDWA data for these sites are consistent with the results. Estimates are provided for the April through July period and for CWS based on surface water source type (static, flowing, or mixed). Requisite sample sizes are determined using statistical tolerance limits, relative SE, and the Woodruff interval sample size criterion. These analyses provide 99.9% confidence that the existing data include the 99.9th centile atrazine concentration for CWS raw and finished water in the Midwest atrazine high-use areas and in the nationwide SDWA dataset. The general validity of this approach is established by a simulation that shows estimates to be close to target quantities for weights based on sampling probabilities or time intervals between samples. Recommendations are given for suitable effective sample sizes to reliably determine interval estimates.     

Diversity in Current Ecological Thinking: Implications for Environmental Management

Current ecological thinking emphasizes that systems are complex, dynamic, and unpredictable across space and time. What is the diversity in interpretation of these ideas among today’s ecologists, and what does this mean for environmental management? This study used a Policy Delphi survey of ecologists to explore their perspectives on a number of current topics in ecology. The results showed general concurrence with nonequilibrium views. There was agreement that disturbance is a widespread, normal feature of ecosystems with historically contingent responses. The importance of recognizing multiple levels of organization and the role of functional diversity in environmental change were also widely acknowledged. Views differed regarding the predictability of successional development, whether “patchiness” is a useful concept, and the benefits of shifting the focus from species to ecosystem processes. Because of their centrality to environmental management, these different views warrant special attention from both managers and ecologists. Such divergence is particularly problematic given widespread concerns regarding the poor linkages between science (here, ecology) and environmental policy and management, which have been attributed to scientific uncertainty and a lack of consensus among scientists, both jeopardizing the transfer of science into management. Several suggestions to help managers deal with these differences are provided, especially the need to interpret broader theory in the context of place-based assessments. The uncertainty created by these differences requires a proactive approach to environmental management, including clearly identifying environmental objectives, careful experimental design, and effective monitoring.     

Geographic pollution mapping of power plant emissions to inform ex-ante environmental justice analyses

Federal and many state agencies are required to perform environmental justice analyses of their policies prior to implementing them to prevent undue impacts on low income and minority populations. However, little academic attention has been paid to the quality of these ex-ante environmental justice analyses. This investigation evaluates the methods used to perform environmental justice analyses during siting and permitting processes. The study uses both the California Energy Commission guidelines for environmental justice analyses and a method that geographically maps air pollution to perform ex-ante environmental justice analyses of three power plants. The objective is to see if results from using these two analysis methods differ substantially. Findings indicate that the mapping technique employed represents a substantial improvement over defining the impacted population using proximity methods because it accounts for the geographical distribution of the hazard. Furthermore, using multiple comparison benchmarks to determine whether the impacted population constitutes an environmental justice population improves upon existing methods by accounting for the spatial distribution of minority and low income populations and for the possibility that there is a relatively high or relatively low percentage of low income and minority persons in both the impacted and comparison regions.     

Agricultural Production Monitoring in the Sahel Using Remote Sensing: Present Possibilities and Research Needs

The main objective is to review the current status of research related to the monitoring of agricultural production in the Sahel (west Africa). The Sahel suffers from frequent shortages of food. It is therefore important to have a tool to monitor environmental variables, and thus crop production, during the agricultural season. Satellite remote sensing can contribute significantly to such a system by collecting information on crops and on environmental variables at a sub-continental geographical scale and with a high temporal frequency. One part of the problem is to estimate crop acreage. The technique of area-sampling frame has to adapted to the Sahelian landscape, which is dominated by traditional farming systems. The second part is to estimate crop yields. Three main approaches exist: statistical, semi-deterministic or deterministic. The use of vegetation indices is discussed as well as techniques to derive biophysical variables from remotely-sensed data. Finally, the integration of these remote-sensing techniques with crop-growth models is discussed and some research needs are identified. It is argued that the quantitative assessment of agricultural production in the Sahel should be based on the integration of remotely-sensed data with semi-deterministic agrometeorological models. This approach will allow a regionalization of the production estimates.     

Stakeholder Perceptions of Scientists: Lake Tahoe Environmental Policy from 1984 to 2001

What factors explain stakeholders’ perceptions of scientists in environmental politics? Questionnaire data are used to examine stakeholders’ views of scientific experts in the context of Lake Tahoe environmental policy from 1984 to 2001. Stakeholders’ perceptions of scientists have remained the same over time – despite a shift from adversarial to collaborative policymaking and after decades of mounting scientific evidence showing water quality declines. On average, stakeholders perceive scientists with limited influence on Lake Tahoe environmental policy and view them with mixed levels of skepticism. Stakeholders’ evaluation of scientists is best explained by their beliefs about development versus the environment. Stakeholders in favor of more land development express distrust of scientists and negatively evaluate university researchers and consultants. Stakeholders in favor of environmental protection are more likely to trust scientists and positively evaluate university researchers and consultants.     

Revolution or inch-by-inch? Campaign approaches on climate change by environmental groups

Climate change is a significant environmental, social and environmental problem that has been identified by scientists in consensus internationally. The Australian Government’s response is considered by environmental non-government organisations (NGOs) to be inadequate. NGOs are ‘change agents’ of society, and in this role they are agitating to influence political decision-making on climate change response. This paper outlines the campaign strategies being used by Australian NGOs to attract public and political attention to the issue of climate change. Using seven NGOs as case studies, the archival materials of these organisations were accessed and analysed. Current academic and other literature also was used to reflect on their effectiveness. Four campaign themes and, within these, fifteen activities were identified. The results indicate that the notion of whether NGOs are undertaking an ‘revolutionary’ or ‘incremental’ approach, or any other narrow strategic approach put forward by various scholars is too simple for analysing campaigns: none of the NGOs appear to intentionally favour one type of strategy. The question raised by this finding is whether the NGOs’ current ‘multi-strategic’ approach is effective. This research contributes to filling the information gap with regard to NGO campaign strategies on environmental issues, and highlights the need for further research.     

EVALUATION OF A STREAM AQUIFER ANALYSIS TEST USING ANALYTICAL SOLUTIONS AND FIELD DATA1

ABSTRACT: Considerable advancements have been made in the development of analytical solutions for predicting the effects of pumping wells on adjacent streams and rivers. However, these solutions have not been sufficiently evaluated against field data. The objective of this research is to evaluate the predictive performance of recently proposed analytical solutions for unsteady stream depletion using field data collected during a stream/aquifer analysis test at the Tamarack State Wildlife Area in eastern Colorado. Two primary stream/aquifer interactions exist at the Tamarack site: (1) between the South Platte River and the alluvial aquifer and (2) between a backwater stream and the alluvial aquifer. A pumping test is performed next to the backwater stream channel. Drawdown measured in observation wells is matched to predictions by recently proposed analytical solutions to derive estimates of aquifer and streambed parameters. These estimates are compared to documented aquifer properties and field measured streambed conductivity. The analytical solutions are capable of estimating reasonable values of both aquifer and streambed parameters with one solution capable of simultaneously estimating delayed aquifer yield and stream flow recharge. However, for long term water management, it is reasonable to use simplified analytical solutions not concerned with early‐time delayed yield effects. For this site, changes in the water level in the stream during the test and a varying water level profile at the beginning of the pumping test influence the application of the analytical solutions.