成都入境旅游客源市场时空演变规律研究

入境旅游客源市场时空演变规律的研究是入境旅游市场研究的一个热点.依据成都市2000-2008年入境旅游市场的相关统计数据,通过分析亲景度和竞争态在时间和空间上的演变,揭示了成都入境旅游客源市场的时空演变规律.研究发现,泰国是成都最重要的入境客源市场,但自从2004年以来亲蓉度有所下降.面对入境客源市场空间分布比较均匀的状况,市场关注的重点应放在市场竞争态有所衰退的市场,以确保整体市场的稳步攀升.     

三亚入境旅游客源市场结构及演化特征研究

分析入境客源市场结构及其演化特征,可为目的地旅游国际化水平提升提供研究支撑。基于2007—2016年三亚入境旅游客源市场数据,对三亚21个入境客源市场的地理集中度、亲景度、市场竞争态进行了分析。结果表明:三亚市近十年来入境旅游客源市场逐渐趋于分散,结构较稳定,多元化竞争格局逐步形成;主要入境旅游客源市场亲景度差异明显,但年际变化不大;洲内客源市场亲景度总体较稳定,洲际市场呈现平稳向好态势;入境客源市场竞争态以瘦狗市场和幼童市场为主,且出现明显的交替现象。在此基础上,进行三亚入境客源市场亲景度和市场竞争态的关联分析,发现两者相关性不强,最后就三亚入境旅游客源市场结构优化相关问题进行了探讨。     

晋陕两省入境旅游客源市场结构对比分析——基于SSM方法

基于SSM方法,选取2005—2010年入境旅游相关数据,对晋陕两省入境旅游客源市场发展态势和结构状况进行对比分析。结果表明,两省入境旅游总体发展速度都高于全国平均水平,且市场结构具有向集中化与多元化并存发展的相似性;两者相比,陕西省入境游客增长总量大于山西省,客源市场结构也更为合理,而山西省入境旅游客源市场相对增长率要大于陕西省,更具市场发展潜力。在此基础上,有针对性地提出进一步拓展晋陕两省入境旅游客源市场的相关建议。     

黑龙江省入境旅游客源市场结构演变分析

运用转移—份额分析法(SSM)对2000-2009年黑龙江省入境旅游外国客源市场结构演变进行了分析.结果表明:①2000-2005年黑龙江省竞争力和增长率均较小,2005-2009年竞争力有所增强,但结构优势有所下降.②全省入境旅游客源市场结构在不断变化,将13个主要客源国分为兴旺市场、崛起市场、成熟市场和停滞市场,并提出相应的市场营销建议.     

中国两岸三地入境旅游发展的比较研究

通过对中国大陆、香港和台湾三地入境旅游发展的历史、旅游资源的特色、入境旅游发展的政策环境及2001—2008年三地入境旅游发展的业绩指标和客源市场的对比分析可知:香港、台湾是中国大陆入境旅游的重要客源市场,两地游客总数占大陆入境旅游总数的63.4%;香港回归后,大陆放宽居民赴港旅游的政策使大陆游客迅速占据香港入境客源市场的半壁江山;而随着两岸政治关系的缓和,大陆将成为台湾入境旅游的重要客源市场。三地的旅游合作和共赢的途径是:将三地作为整体推广针对远程外国入境游客的"一程多站"旅游模式,使每个进入其中一地的游客都成为其他两地的中转客源,从而使各方受益。由于其地缘邻近、文化同源、旅游资源的互补性强,两岸三地必将相互成为主要的客源市场。     

入境旅游在中国区域的分布特征与客源对接研究

采用市场集中度指数、区位基尼系数和统计归纳法,探究了入境旅游在中国区域的分布特征及其动态,分析它们之间的客源对接及其变化,并对入境旅游客源市场进行多维视角的科学分类。研究发现:(1)各客源市场在我国省区的集中程度差异较大,同时几乎所有客源市场的集中程度在逐渐削弱,削弱原因在于:高比例省区之间、高比例省区和低比例省区组群之间的差异逐渐缩小。(2)各客源市场的主要分布省区构成变化较小,广东、上海、北京、江苏、浙江成为各客源市场对接的主要分布密集省区。根据系统聚类、分布特征和客源对接等结果,各客源市场被划分为高度集中型、较高集中型和分布递减型。     

基于亲景度分析的山东省入境旅游市场研究

入境旅游作为山东省旅游业发展的工作重点,其入境客源市场的变化应作为山东省旅游业发展战略制定的重要基础条件进行分析和研究。依据山东省1998—2007年间的入境旅游相关统计数据,通过亲景度分析,探讨山东省入境旅游市场的年际变化、亲景度国别差异及空间演变,在此基础上提出了山东未来拓展入境旅游市场的对策与建议。     

基于亲景度和竞争态的京沪陕入境旅游市场研究

依据1999-2008年相关统计数据,选取我国入境旅游市场份额前13位的客源国,以北京、上海、陕西等三大入境旅游热点地区为研究对象,利用亲景度指标,分析总结了其入境旅游市场的时空动态变化规律及深层原因,并引入竞争态模型,重点选取日本、韩国、美国三大客源市场进行京沪陕三地的比较研究.     

滨海城市入境旅游的区域差异对比分析

采用SSM数学模型分析方法和变异系数,以入境旅游人数和旅游外汇收入为样本数据,从客源市场结构和旅游竞争力两个方面对比分析了1996—2007年大连、青岛我国北方两个具有代表性的滨海城市入境旅游的区域发展差异。结果表明,从客源市场和相对差异都可发现两个城市入境旅游的区域差异经历了"减小—增大"的演变过程,原因在于青岛便利的交通、独特的文化和区位优势,使青岛由落后效仿者变为领先者,充分发挥了厚积薄发的优势。     

西藏入境旅游市场消费结构演化研究

把握入境旅游者的消费行为特征和消费结构特征,对目前西藏旅游业和区域经济实现可持续发展具有重要意义.以1997-2011年《中国旅游统计年鉴》和中国入境旅游者抽样调查资料为基础,对西藏入境旅游市场结构和消费结构演化特征进行分析,得出入境旅游消费结构不合理等相关结论,并在此基础上提出西藏入境旅游市场开发建议:加强旅游客源市场开发,及时调整旅游消费结构.     

AN APPLICATION RUNOFF MODEL STRATEGY FOR UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models for predicting watershed surface flow responses are available, most of which are elaborate nonlinear numerical surface and channel flow models linked with infiltration models. Such models may be used to make predictions for ungaged areas, assuming an acceptable fitting of the model to the topography and roughness of the real system. For some application purposes, these models are impractical because of their complexity and expensive computer solutions. A procedure is developed that uses a complex model of an ungaged area to derive a simpler parametric nonlinear system model for repetitious simulation with input sequences. The predicted flow outputs are obtained with the simpler model at significant savings of money and time. The procedures for constructing a complex kinematic model of a 40 acre (161,880 m²) reference watershed and deriving the simpler system model are outlined. The results of predictions from both models are compared with a selected set of measured events, all having essentially the same initial conditions. Peak discharges ranged from 3 to 118 ft³/sec (0.085 to 3.34 m³/sec), which includes the largest event of record. The inherent limitations of lumped systems models are demonstrated, including the bias caused by their inability to model infiltration losses after rainfall ceases. Computer costs and times for the models were compared. The derived simple model has a cost advantage when repeated use of a model is required. Such an applications hydrologic model has an engineering tradeoff of reduced accuracy, and lumping bias, but is more economical for certain design purposes.     

Conversion of temperate forests into heaths: Role of ecosystem disturbance and ericaceous plants

Fire and logging in nutrient-poor temperate forests with certain ericaceous understory plants may convert the forests into heaths. The process of disturbance-induced heath formation is documented by using examples ofCalluna in western Europe,Kalmia in Newfoundland, andGaultheria (salal) in coastal British Columbia. In a cool, temperate climate, rapid vegetative growth ofCalluna, Kalmia, and salal following disturbance results in increasing organic accumulation (paludification), nutrient sequestration, soil acidification, and allelochemicals. These are thought to be the main reasons to conifer regeneration failure in disturbed habitats. If continuation in forest is a land-use objective, then temperate forests with an ericaceous understory should not be logged unless effective silvicultural methods are devised to control the ericaceous plants and restore forest regeneration. Preharvest vegetation control may be considered as an option. Failure to control the understory plants may lead to a long-term vegetation shift, from forest to heathland, particularly in nutrient-poor sites. Successful methods of controllingKalmia andGaultheria, however, have yet to be developed. While theKalmia- andGaultheria- dominated heathlands are undesirable in Canada and the Pacific Northwest, a wide range ofCalluna heathlands of western Europe are being conserved as natural and seminatural vegetation.     

Urban ecological systems: scientific foundations and a decade of progress

Urban ecological studies, including focus on cities, suburbs, and exurbs, while having deep roots in the early to mid 20th century, have burgeoned in the last several decades. We use the state factor approach to highlight the role of important aspects of climate, substrate, organisms, relief, and time in differentiating urban from non-urban areas, and for determining heterogeneity within spatially extensive metropolitan areas. In addition to reviewing key findings relevant to each state factor, we note the emergence of tentative "urban syndromes" concerning soils, streams, wildlife and plants, and homogenization of certain ecosystem functions, such as soil organic carbon dynamics. We note the utility of the ecosystem approach, the human ecosystem framework, and watersheds as integrative tools to tie information about multiple state factors together. The organismal component of urban complexes includes the social organization of the human population, and we review key modes by which human populations within urban areas are differentiated, and how such differentiation affects environmentally relevant actions. Emerging syntheses in land change science and ecological urban design are also summarized. The multifaceted frameworks and the growing urban knowledge base do however identify some pressing research needs.     

Neighbourhood characteristics and urban gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area: staffing and voluntarism,food production,infrastructure, and sustainability practices

Urban gardens are important sources of sustenance for communities with limited access to food. Hence, this study focuses on food production in gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area in Northwest Ohio. We administered surveys to 150 garden managers from November 2014 to February 2015 in our attempt to better understand how neighbourhood racial composition and poverty levels are related to staffing and voluntarism, food production and distribution, the development of infrastructure, and the adoption of sustainability practices in urban gardens. The results from 30 gardens are presented in this paper. We used Geographic Information Systems to map the gardens and overlay the map with 2010 census data so that we could conduct demographic analyses of the neighbourhoods in which the gardens were located. Though the gardens were small – two acres or less – up to 46 varieties of food were grown in a single garden. Gardens also operated on small budgets. Food from the gardens was gifted or shared with friends, family, and neighbourhood residents. Gardens in predominantly minority neighbourhoods tended to have fewer institutional partners, less garden infrastructure, and had adopted fewer sustainable practices than gardens in predominantly White neighbourhoods. Nonetheless, residents of predominantly minority and high-poverty neighbourhoods participated in garden activities and influenced garden operations. Volunteering and staffing were racialised and gendered.     

Predicting deer-vehicle collisions in an urban area

Collisions with deer and other large animals are increasing, and the resulting economic costs and risks to public safety have made mitigation measures a priority for both city and wildlife managers. We created landscape models to describe and predict deer-vehicle collision (DVCs) within the City of Edmonton, Alberta. Models based on roadside characteristics revealed that DVCs occurred frequently where roadside vegetation was both denser and more diverse, and that DVCs were more likely to occur when the groomed width of roadside right-of-ways was smaller. No DVCs occurred where the width of the vegetation-free or manicured roadside buffer was greater than 40 m. Landscape-based models showed that DVCs were more likely in more heterogeneous landscapes where road densities were lower and speed limits were higher, and where non-forested vegetation such as farmland was in closer proximity to larger tracts of forest. These models can help wildlife and transportation managers to identify locations of high collision frequency for mitigation. Modifying certain landscape and roadside habitats can be an effective way to reduce deer-vehicle collisions.     

BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS AND BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF ESTUARINE/COASTAL POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: Sustained interest in and concern about the health status of the aquatic environment has resulted in extensive research focused on (1) effects of pollution on survival, growth, and reproduction of resource species at all life stages; (2) diseases of fish and shellfish, as they may be related to pollution and as they may serve as indicators of environmental stress; and (3) contaminant body burdens in fish and shellfish - their effects on the aquatic animals and their potential effects on humans. Effects, lethal and sublethal, of pollutants on life history stages of fish and shellfish have been documented, as have impacts on local stocks in badly degraded habitats, but as yet there has been no adequate quantitative demonstration of effects on entire aquatic species - probably because of the difficulty in sorting out relative effects of the many environmental factors that influence abundance. Sublethal effects, especially those that result in disease, have been examined intensively, and some diseases and disease syndromes have been associated statistically with pollution. Other pollution indicators (biochemical, physiological, genetic, behavioral, and ecological) have also received some attention, as have body burdens of contaminants in aquatic species. Research, especially that conducted during the past decade, has done much to clarify the many pathways and toxic effects of contaminants on aquatic animals, and has also helped to identify mechanisms for survival of fish and shellfish in the presence of environmental changes caused by human activities.     

Biodiversity and biotechnology

The maintenance of biodiversity is urged from many quarters and on grounds ranging from aesthetic considerations to its usefulness, particularly for biotechnology. But regardless of the grounds for preserving biodiversity, writers are generally in agreement that it should be preserved. But, in examining the various references biodiversity, such as species diversity, genetic diversity, and habitat diversity, it is apparent that we cannot aim to preserve biodiversityas such, since there are a number of conflicts in any such undertaking. In preserving one aspect of biodiversity, we damage another aspect. Five arguments which attempt to ground our moral concern for biodiversity are reviewed and critiqued, not only for their consistency but also for their power to move us to action. The final section of the paper shows how conflicts in the values of personal and environmental health can impair ethical action and especially policy formation.An earlier version of this paper was read at the conference on Agriculture, Food, and Human Values: Tradition and Change, Orlando, Florida, October 7–9, 1987.     

Journalists' views of advertiser pressures on agricultural news

All major journalism ethical codes explicitly state that journalists should protect editorial copy from undue influence by outside sources. However, much of the previous research on agricultural information has concentrated on what information various media communicate (gatekeeping studies) or communication's role in increasing innovation adoption (diffusion studies). Few studies have concentrated specifically on organizational and structural constraints that might adversely affect agricultural journalists' ethical standards; those that have, focus largely on farm magazines. A study of newspaper reporters who cover agricultural news found that the most pressing ethical concern is the effect of advertiser (agri-business) pressure on editorial copy, and that their concerns in general parallel those of farm magazine writers and editors. The majority reported being in situations in which they might be exposed to advertiser pressure, including pressures to change or withhold editorial copy. Large minorities suggested that advertising pressures affect the overall environment in which agricultural journalists work, and more than one in ten said they allow advertiser pressures to influence editorial decisions. The newspaper reporters who cover agricultural beats showed slightly more resistance to advertiser pressure than did farm magazine editors in a parallel study.     

Definition Procedures Have Little Effect on Performance of Environmental Classifications of Streams and Rivers

Mapped environmental classifications are defined using various procedures, but there has been little evaluation of the differences in their ability to discriminate variation in independent ecological characteristics. We tested the performance of environmental classifications of the streams and rivers of France that had been defined from the same environmental data using geographic regionalization and numerical classification of individual river valley segments. Test data comprised invertebrate assemblages, water chemistry, and hydrological indexes obtained from sites throughout France. Classification performance was measured by analysis of similarity (ANOSIM). Geometric regions defined by a regular grid and without regard to environmental variables and a posteriori classifications based on clustering the test datasets defined lower and upper bounds of performance for a given number of classes. Differences in classification performances were generally small. The ANOSIM statistics for the a posteriori classifications were around twice that of all environmental classifications, including geometrically defined regions. The hydro-ecoregions performed slightly better for the invertebrate data and the network classification performed slightly better for the chemistry and hydrological data. Our results indicate that environmental classifications that are defined using different procedures can be comparable in terms of their ability to discriminate variation of ecological characteristics and that alleged differences in performance arising from different classification procedures can be small relative to unexplained variation. We conclude that definition procedures might have little effect on the performance of large-scale environmental classifications and decisions over which procedures to use should be based primarily on pragmatic considerations.     

A Social Contract for Biotechnology: Shared Visions for Risky Technologies?

Future technological developmentsconcerning food, agriculture, and theenvironment face a gulf of social legitimationfrom a skeptical public and media, in the wakeof the crises of BSE, GM food, and foot andmouth disease in the UK (House of Lords, 2000). Keyethical issues were ignored by the bioindustry,regulators, and the Government, leaving alegacy of distrust. The paper examinesagricultural biotechnology in terms of a socialcontract, whose conditions would have to be fulfilled togain acceptance of novel applications. Variouscurrent and future GM applications areevaluated against these conditions. Successwould depend critically on how far a sharedvision can be found with the public. Tore-establish trust, significant changes areidentified in the planning and pursuit ofbiotechnology.