Calculating nuclear accident probabilities from empirical frequencies

Since there is no authoritative, comprehensive and public historical record of nuclear power plant accidents, we reconstructed a nuclear accident data set from peer-reviewed and other literature. We found that, in a sample of five random years, the worldwide historical frequency of a nuclear major accident, defined as an INES level 7 event, is 14 %. The probability of at least one nuclear accident rated at level ≥4 on the INES scale is 67 %. These numbers are subject to uncertainties because of the fuzziness of the definition of a nuclear accident.     

我国应急事故水池现状剖析与改进的研究

通过统计分析国家和行业标准以及现场勘察发现,目前在应急事故水池的定义、功能、布局、类型、容积、消防历时和降雨量等方面存在许多问题,也无法满足突发环境事件中各种污水的收集与处理。因此,应尽快研究并制定适用于各类企事业单位、工业园区的应急事故水池技术规范。研究表明:凡是生产、使用、储存危险化学品和环境风险物质并且所排放的污染物可能造成环境质量显著下降、危及公众身体健康的企事业单位,均应设置应急事故水池。应急事故水池应具有永久性、专一性、自流式、池容大、防腐蚀、防渗漏等基本属性。消防历时对应急事故水池容积的影响最大,一般应取最大设计值。对应急事故水池容积影响较大的最大降雨量,应参考最大设计消防历时或按8~12h的降雨量统计计算。工业园区应急事故水池应选择在便于收集的地势低洼之处,其容积应充分考虑近年来实际案例的消防水量。而构建企业间联用和工业园区公共应急事故水池三级防御体系,才能更有效地应对突发水污染事件。     

Sensitizing technical experts to public concerns about industrial hazards using theory, guided imaging and focused group discussion

A major reason for the discrepancy between expert and lay perceptions of risk is that risk does not mean the same thing to each group. When referring to risk, experts generally mean the probability of a serious accident occurring multiplied by the magnitude of the resulting incidence of mortality, morbidity or environmental damage, which has been referred to as hazard. When lay persons refer to risk, they generally mean hazard as well as and, often, more significantly many other outrage factors that concern them. According to one study, when carrying out a risk assessment most experts ignore outrage whereas most lay persons ignore hazard. If this is so, there is an obvious need to address these omissions through carefully designed educational and training activities. Twelve major outrage factors which come into play, independently or in combination, when lay persons are assessing risk, have been selected by the authors and are expressed in the form of 12 risk propositions. It is suggested that as well as familiarizing experts with these risk propositions it is also necessary to sensitize them to the emotional content of the outrage factors. This can best be done through the medium of experiential exercises specifically designed for this purpose. Two examples of such exercises are presented.     

突发性水污染事故应急监测体系的研究

应急监测体系作为突发性水污染事故处理的重要组成部分,对突发性水污染事故应急监测具有指导作用。本文通过对突发性水污染事故应急监测体系建设的研究,将监测体系分为应急监测预案、装备体系、技术体系、能力体系、信息体系五个部分,为我国突发性水污染事故的监测和管理提供了一种思路。     

Quantified risk assessment on life and property loss from road collision vehicle fires with hydrogen-fueled tank

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles pose hazards different from conventional vehicles. This paper performs a risk assessment on road collision vehicle fires with hydrogen-fueled tank of 70 MPa. The high voltage battery fire caused by road collision can lead to onboard hydrogen release or explosion. Events progressions are analyzed and typical hydrogen consequences are evaluated quantitatively, including hydrogen jet fires and tank catastrophic rupture. Perimeters around the accident scene are proposed for the safety of general public and first responders, respectively. Risks of fatalities, injuries, and damages are all quantified in financial terms to make it possible to combine and compare.     

The environmental impact of Chernobyl in the soviet union

Summary The author describes events subsequent to the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and something of their environmental impact as it affects the Soviet Union. He is somewhat adversely critical of the lack of information currently being released by the Soviet authorities.Dr Zhores Medvedev was born in Tbilisi, and trained firstly as a plant biochemist and subsequently as a molecular biologist in the USSR. He studied the ecological effects of the 1958 Kyshtym nuclear accident in the USSR and published his findings in a bookNuclear Disaster in the Urals in 1979. He is currently a research scientist at the National Institute of Medical Research in London. A comprehensive analysis ofSoviet Agriculture is about to appear in a book of that title under Dr. Medvedev's authorship.     

Parental concern about children's traffic safety in residential neighborhoods

One hundred and five parents and nonparents responded to a questionnaire consisting of evaluative ratings (general evaluation, social status and safety concern) of six familiar residential neighborhoods; ratings of the traffic accident risk children in the age ranges 2–4, 5–6, 7–9 and 10–12 years run in these neighborhoods; and, finally, ratings of the strengths attributed to factors as causes of traffic accidents (environment, children, parents, drivers and chance). Across neighborhoods and age ranges of children, risk perceptions were found to be related to the rated strengths of the causes. Low-traffic volume neighborhoods were perceived as less risky and were attributed as less strong causes than high-traffic volume neighborhoods were. Perceived risk increased with age of child to a maximum, then decreased. The same relationship with age was found for the attributed causes environment and drivers. The strength of parents as cause was rated to decrease while the strength of child as cause was rated to increase with age. Chance was rated as the weakest cause and the rated strength did not vary across neighborhoods or age. Neither parentship nor gender, singly or in combination, had any clear effects. For parents and nonparents alike the general evaluation of the neighborhoods was influenced by safety concern but not by the particular aspect investigated, i.e. perceived traffic accident risk to children.     

Data search and environmental hazard assessment for post-seveso chemicals

After the serious accident with a chemical industrial plant at Seveso (Italy) in 1976, the Commission of the European Communities has made a directive on major accidents, usually called the Post-Seveso Guideline. In its annex III, a list of 178 substances is given for which potentially dangerous volumes in case of an accident are defined on the basis of human health criteria. For the implementation of environmental criteria, information on toxicity to aquatic organisms, dilution, and physical behavior in water is needed. A literature search for relevant data on these 178 substances revealed aquatic toxicity data for 116 substances, but only for 87 substances sufficient data were available to make a hazard assessment. As an example, the River Rhine was used to calculate the critical quantities that, after a sudden discharge in the Swiss part, could cause damage at the Dutch part some 800 km downstream. In the absence of a common opinion on the criteria for being a major accident and a serious environmental hazard, the impact of different criteria quantities is discussed. If, for example, in the whole River Rhine a mortality of 5% of the aquatic species is chosen as the criterion for damage to the ecosystem, the critical quantities as mentioned in the EEC directive have to be lowered drastically for the majority of the substances. For 18 substances it could be shown that release of the mentioned quantities would be catastrophic for aquatic life in the whole river.     

海洋石油污染处理方法优化配置

溢油是石油进入海洋的主要方式之一,如何对溢油事故进行有效的预防和处理成为有效预防海洋污染、保护海洋环境的重要举措。文章从三个方面介绍了如何进行溢油防治,并对溢油处理措施进行了详细说明,论证了不同海面状况下各种处理方法的优化组合,并以辽河油田浅海石油开发公司导管架平台溢油事故为例进行了说明。     

低温供热堆选址阶段的环境影响评价与分析

根据低温供热堆选址阶段环境影响评价的要求,结合工程具体设计方案,对低温供热堆在正常运行和事故工况下可能造成的环境影响进行分析、预测与评价,以作为审管当局决策的重要依据。低温供热堆在正常运行状态时,放射性气载流出物在大气中迁移和扩散及对公众的辐射剂量估算采用的是IAEA安全系列19号报告中给出的筛选模式(稀释模式);事故工况下保守考虑全堆熔事故作为选址假想事故,采用USNRC RG1.4中给出的最大可信事故(30d)的大气扩散因子计算方法,估算假想事故各时段的大气扩散因子。正常运行工况下,在半径1km的环形区域内烟囱排放和蒸发池排放叠加的最大个人有效剂量为7.84×10^-6 Sv/a,小于本工程对公众的剂量约束值0.03mSv/a;事故工况下,两厂址所致公众个人(成人)在整个事故持续时间内厂址边界处(150m)最大个人有效剂量为5.66mSv,甲状腺当量剂量为7.43mSv,均小于《小型压水堆核动力厂安全审评原则(试行)》要求。低温供热堆在正常运行和事故工况下,对周围环境和公众的影响均满足参考的相关标准要求,是可以接受的。     

河流污染带特征参数预测模型及其软件化研究

本文建立了连续点源和瞬时点源两种常见排污工况下河流污染带的特征参数预测模型，模型预测的污染带特征参数包括污染物达到全断面均匀混合的距离、污染带最大长度、最大宽度及其出现的位置、污染带面积等，并能利用污染带的特征参数反演推算允许排污量和削减量。模型所用方法简便易行，且具有较高精度，可用于常规连续排污和突发事故排污情况下的河流污染带预测。在此基础上，研制开发了河流污染带特征参数预测系统（RPZS），方便实用。     

一起农用薄膜老化的案例分析

广东沿海某地发生了一起由农用聚乙烯薄膜材料老化破裂引起的质量问题事故,直接经济损失达200多万元.事件发生后,我中心分别接受南方电视台、当地工商所和当地法院的委托,对农用薄膜进行了相关测试,分析事件发生的原因.     

Public and occupational risks of the Nevada (USA) Test Site

The Nevada Test Site (NTS), north of Las Vegas, was the scene of hundreds of nuclear weapons tests over four decades, both above- and belowground. There is considerable interest, both in neighboring communities and elsewhere, in the risks it poses. Overall, the greatest risks are nonradioactive in origin, with occupational risks to employees and accident risks in transporting low-level nuclear wastes to the NTS from other Department of Energy (DOE) sites ranking highest. For radiation risks, that to workers handling radioactive materials is much higher than that to the surrounding population, either present or future. Overall, annual risks are small, with all fatalities approximately 0.008% of total Nevada deaths. At the NTS, the government spends about 5000 times more on radiation as opposed to nonradiation deaths. This suggests that at least some resources may be misallocated towards cleanup of public risks and that the occupational risk of cleanup may be much higher than the public risk. Thus risk may be multiplied by well-meaning programs.     

突发性环境污染事故应急监测准备与响应

突发性环境污染事故具有不确定性，因此要求应急监测准备工作常备不懈；应急监测准备和响应贯穿于事前、事发、事后几个阶段，包括日常准备、应急监测、结果发布、跟踪监测、经验总结等主要环节。     

跨江桥梁项目环境风险概率计算及影响因素分析

跨江大桥项目由于存在对跨越水体水环境影响的特征,故而应该就风险概率的限制因素进行深入的分析.跨江桥梁对项目区域水环境风险产生的最大可信事故是危化品在跨越水体时发生事故进而产生侧翻、坠河、泄露等引起的对水环境的影响,本次研究在对项目区域交通事故基础数据统计的基础上,计算得到了具有代表性的事故概率基数,并在综合考虑了车型比、道路线形特征、事故区域及形态比例、防护措施等各项限制因素的情况下,计算出了大桥项目发生最大可信事故的概率.     

工业园区氯碱项目环境风险预测评价——以新疆某城市工业园区氯碱项目为例

对工业园区引入的化工项目进行环境风险评价,是园区规划的重点工作之一。对氯碱生产项目潜在的环境风险环节进行识别和风险类型的确定,对发生泄漏性事故进行环境风险评价,预测了事故发生对环境的影响程度及范围。对事故发生后的风险提出防范和应急减缓措施,并对项目提出规划建议。     

油气管线带压不停输封堵技术在长庆油田的应用

长庆油田通过对管道不停输带压封堵施工技术的探索,在改扩建工程施工中取得了良好的效果。实践证明,与常规施工方法相比可有效缩短维护抢修作业工期20%～30%。它在油气田风险管理、事故预防、环境污染治理方面是积极安全有效的。     

海上溢油事故应急反应系统的框架研究

一旦发生海上溢油事故,溢油事故应急反应系统将有效地组织溢油事故的各种应急处理,以确保海洋生态系统的安全和减少经济损失。文章对海上溢油事故应急反应系统的总体框架进行了分析,并详细介绍了以溢油信息收集子系统、溢油模拟子系统、环境与资源信息数据库、溢油应急指挥中心及溢油应急处理系统五大部分为主体的框架及其主要功能。该框架可作为建立海上溢油事故应急反应系统的基础。     

我国推进环境污染责任保险的系统性风险及对策

环境污染责任保险是以企业发生的污染事故对第三者造成的损害依法应负的赔偿责任为标的的保险.本文在对我国环境污染责任保险30年发展历程进行全面回顾的基础上,从立法、模式、技术等层面出发,结合2019年底以来新型冠状病毒引发的公共卫生紧急事件挑战,分析了新时期政策实践面临的系统性风险,提出通过促进自上而下的立法推进与自下而上的自主试点良性互动、"低保额、低保障、广覆盖"的强制基本险与"高保额、高保障、个性化"的商业附加险灵活结合、经验数据积累与技术标准完善双管齐下、企业常态自主投保与特殊应急响应投保相互助力等方式妥善化解相关风险,为补齐生态短板、打好污染防治攻坚战、全面建成小康社会提供助力.     

A COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING LOW FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Four methods for estimating the 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 20-year low flows for streams are compared by the bootstrap method. The bootstrap method is a Monte Carlo technique in which random samples are drawn from an unspecified sampling distribution defined from observed data. The nonparametric nature of the bootstrap makes it suitable for comparing methods based on a flow series for which the true distribution is unknown. Results show that the two methods based on hypothetical distributions (Log-Pearson III and Weibull) had lower mean square errors than did the Box-Cox transformation method or the Log-Boughton method which is based on a fit of plotting positions.