THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON STREAM FLOW AND NUTRIENT LOADING'

ABSTRACT: This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on stream flow and nutrient loading in six watersheds of the Susquehanna River Basin using the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF). The model was used to simulate changes in stream flow and nutrient loads under a transient climate change scenario for each watershed. Under an assumption of no change in land cover and land management, the model was used to predict monthly changes in stream flow and nutrient loads for future climate conditions. Mean annual stream flow and nutrient loads increased for most watersheds, but decreased in one watershed that was intensively cultivated. Nutrient loading slightly decreased in April and late summer for several watersheds as a result of early snowmelt and increasing evapotranspiration. Spatial and temporal variability of stream flow and nutrient loads under the transient climate scenario indicates that different approaches for future water resource management may be useful.     

PREDICTING INFLUENCES OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT ON THERMAL HABITAT IN A WARM WATER STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Watershed and aquatic ecosystem management requires methods to predict and understand thermal impacts on stream habitat from urbanization. This study evaluates thermal effects of projected urbanization using a modeling framework and considers the biological implications to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) to assess changes in stream thermal habitat under altered stream‐ flow, shade, and channel width associated with low, medium, and high density urban developments in the Back Creek watershed (Roanoke County, Virginia). Flow alteration by the high density development scenario alone caused minimal heating of mean daily summer base flow (mean +0.1°C). However, when flow changes were modeled concurrently with reduced shade and increased channel width, mean daily temperature increased 1°C. Maximum daily temperatures exceeding the state standard (31°C) increased from 1.1 to 7.6 percent of the time using summer 2000 climatic conditions. Model results suggest that additional urban development will alter stream temperature, potentially limiting thermal habitat and shifting the fish community structure from intolerant to tolerant fish species in Back Creek. More research is needed on the sub‐lethal or chronic effects of increased stream temperature regimes on fish, particularly for those species already living in habitats near their upper limits.     

Phosphorus loss from an agricultural watershed as a function of storm size

Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural watersheds is generally greater in storm rather than base flow. Although fundamental to P-based risk assessment tools, few studies have quantified the effect of storm size on P loss. Thus, the loss of P as a function of flow type (base and storm flow) and size was quantified for a mixed-land use watershed (FD-36; 39.5 ha) from 1997 to 2006. Storm size was ranked by return period (<1, 1-3, 3-5, 5-10, and >10 yr), where increasing return period represents storms with greater peak and total flow. From 1997 to 2006, storm flow accounted for 32% of watershed discharge yet contributed 65% of dissolved reactive P (DP) (107 g ha(-1) yr(-1)) and 80% of total P (TP) exported (515 g ha(-1) yr(-1)). Of 248 storm flows during this period, 93% had a return period of <1 yr, contributing most of the 10-yr flow (6507 m(3) ha(-1); 63%) and export of DP (574 g ha(-1); 54%) and TP (2423 g ha(-1); 47%). Two 10-yr storms contributed 23% of P exported between 1997 and 2006. A significant increase in storm flow DP concentration with storm size (0.09-0.16 mg L(-1)) suggests that P release from soil and/or area of the watershed producing runoff increase with storm size. Thus, implementation of P-based Best Management Practice needs to consider what level of risk management is acceptable.     

Integrating contributing areas and indexing phosphorus loss from agricultural watersheds

Most states in the USA have adopted P Indexing to guide P-based management of agricultural fields by identifying the relative risk of P loss at farm and watershed scales. To a large extent, this risk is based on hydrologic principles that frequently occurring storms can initiate surface runoff from fields. Once initiated, this hydrological pathway has a high potential to transport P to the stream. In regions where hydrologically active areas of watersheds vary in time and space, surface runoff generation by "saturation excess" has been linked to distance from stream, with larger events resulting in larger contributing distances. Thus, storm-return period and P loss from a 39.5-ha mixed-land-use watershed in Pennsylvania was evaluated to relate return-period thresholds and distances contributing P to streams. Of 248 storm flows between 1997 and 2006, 93% had a return period of 1 yr, contributing 47% of total P (TP) export, while the largest two storms (10-yr return period) accounted for 23% of TP export. Contributing distance thresholds for the watershed were determined (50-150 m) for a range of storm-return periods (1-10 yr) from hydrograph analysis. By modifying storm-return period thresholds in the P Index and thereby contributing distance, it is possible to account for greater risk of P loss during large storms. For instance, increasing return period threshold from 1 (current P indices) to 5 yr, which accounted for 67% of TP export, increased the P-management restricted area from 20 to 58% of the watershed. An increase in impacted area relative to a decreased risk of P loss creates a management-policy dilemma that cannot be ignored.     

Modeling sediment and nitrogen export from a rural watershed in eastern Canada using the soil and water assessment tool

Watershed simulation models can be used to assess agricultural nonpoint-source pollution and for environmental planning and improvement projects. However, before application of any process-based watershed model, the model performance and reliability must be tested with measured data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2005 (SWAT2005) was used to model sediment and nitrogen loads from the Thomas Brook Watershed, which drains a 7.84 km rural landscape in the Annapolis Valley of Nova Scotia, Canada. The Thomas Brook SWAT model was comprised of 28 subbasins and 265 hydrologic response units, most of them containing agricultural land use, which is the main nonpoint nitrogen source in the watershed. Crop rotation schedules were incorporated into the model using field data collected within Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Watershed Evaluation of Beneficial Management Practices program. Model calibration (2004-2006) and validation (2007-2008) were performed on a monthly basis using continuous stream flow, sediment, and nitrogen export measurements. Model performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) statistics. Study results show that the model performance was satisfactory (NSE > 0.4; > 0.5) for stream flow, sediment, nitrate-nitrogen, and total nitrogen simulations. Annual corn, barley, and wheat yields were also simulated well, with PBIAS values ranging from 0.3 to 7.2%. This evaluation of SWAT demonstrated that the model has the potential to be used as a decision support tool for agricultural watershed management in Nova Scotia.     

Effects of watershed-scale land use change on stream nitrate concentrations

The Walnut Creek Watershed Monitoring Project was conducted from 1995 through 2005 to evaluate the response of stream nitrate concentrations to changing land use patterns in paired 5000-ha Iowa watersheds. A large portion of the Walnut Creek watershed is being converted from row crop agriculture to native prairie and savanna by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge (NSNWR). Before restoration, land use in both Walnut Creek (treatment) and Squaw Creek (control) watersheds consisted of 70% row crops. Between 1990 and 2005, row crop area decreased 25.4% in Walnut Creek due to prairie restoration but increased 9.2% in Squaw Creek due to Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grassland conversion back to row crop. Nitrate concentrations ranged between <0.5 to 14 mg L(-1) at the Walnut Creek outlet and 2.1 to 15 mg L(-1) at the downstream Squaw Creek outlet. Nitrate concentrations decreased 1.2 mg L(-1) over 10 yr in the Walnut Creek watershed but increased 1.9 mg L(-1) over 10 yr in Squaw Creek. Changes in nitrate were easier to detect and more pronounced in monitored subbasins, decreasing 1.2 to 3.4 mg L(-1) in three Walnut Creek subbasins, but increasing up to 8.0 and 11.6 mg L(-1) in 10 yr in two Squaw Creek subbasins. Converting row crop lands to grass reduced stream nitrate levels over time in Walnut Creek, but stream nitrate rapidly increased in Squaw Creek when CRP grasslands were converted back to row crop. Study results highlight the close association of stream nitrate to land use change and emphasize that grasslands or other perennial vegetation placed in agricultural settings should be part of a long-term solution to water quality problems.     

Change point analysis of phosphorus trends in the Illinois River (Oklahoma) demonstrates the effects of watershed management

Detecting water quality improvements following watershed management changes is complicated by flow-dependent concentrations and nonlinear or threshold responses that are difficult to detect with traditional statistical techniques. In this study, we evaluated the long-term trends (1997-2009) in total P (TP) concentrations in the Illinois River of Oklahoma, and some of its major tributaries, using flow-adjusted TP concentrations and regression tree analysis to identify specific calendar dates in which change points in P trends may have occurred. Phosphorus concentrations at all locations were strongly correlated with stream flow. Flow-adjusted TP concentrations increased at all study locations in the late 1990s, but this trend was related to a change in monitoring practices where storm flow samples were specifically targeted after 1998. Flow-adjusted TP concentrations decreased in the two Illinois River sites after 2003. This change coincided with a significant decrease in effluent TP concentrations originating with one of the largest municipal wastewater treatment facilities in the basin. Conversely, flow-adjusted TP concentrations in one tributary increased, but this stream received treated effluent from a wastewater facility where effluent TP did not decrease significantly over the study period. Results of this study demonstrate how long-term trends in stream TP concentrations are difficult to quantify without consistent long-term monitoring strategies and how flow adjustment is likely mandatory for examining these trends. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how detecting changes in long-term water quality data sets requires statistical methods capable of identifying change point and nonlinear responses.     

Baseflow nitrate in relation to stream order and agricultural land use

Management of agricultural nonpoint-source pollution continues to be a challenge because of spatial and temporal variability. Using stream order as an index, we explored the distribution of nitrate concentration and load along the stream network of a large agricultural watershed in Pennsylvania-the East Mahantango Creek Watershed and two of its sub-watersheds. To understand nitrate concentration variation in the stream water contributed from ground water, this study focused on baseflow. Impacts of agricultural land use area on baseflow nitrate in the stream network were investigated. Nitrate concentration showed a general decreasing trend with increasing stream order based on stream order averaged values; however, considerable spatial and temporal variability existed within each snapshot sampling. Nitrate loads increased with stream order in a power function because of the dominant effect of stream flow rate over the nitrate concentration. Within delineated sub-watersheds based on stream orders, positive linear functions were found between agricultural land use area percentage and the baseflow nitrate concentration and between agricultural drainage area and the nitrate load. The slope of the positive linear regression between the baseflow nitrate concentration and percent agricultural land area seems to be a valuable indicator of a watershed's water quality as influenced by agricultural practices, watershed size, and specific physiographic setting. Stream order seems to integrate, to a certain degree, the source and transport aspects of nonpoint-source pollution on a yearly averaged basis and thus might provide a quick estimate of the overall trend in baseflow nitrate concentration and load distribution along complex stream networks in agricultural watersheds.     

Testing of the Modified Streambank Erosion and Instream Phosphorus Routines for the SWAT Model

In some watersheds, streambanks are a source of two major pollutants, phosphorus (P) and sediment. P originating from both uplands and streambanks can be transported and stored indefinitely on floodplains, streambanks, and in closed depressions near the stream. The objectives of this study were to (1) test the modified streambank erosion and instream P routines for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the Barren Fork Creek watershed in northeast Oklahoma, (2) predict P in the watershed with and without streambank‐derived P, and (3) determine the significance of streambank erosion P relative to overland P sources. Measured streambank and channel parameters were incorporated into a flow‐calibrated SWAT model and used to estimate streambank erosion and P for the Barren Fork Creek using modified streambank erosion and instream P routines. The predicted reach‐weighted streambank erosion was 40 kg/m vs. the measured 42 kg/m. Streambank erosion contributed 47% of the total P to the Barren Fork Creek and improved P predictions compared to observed data, especially during the high‐flow events. Of the total P entering the stream system, approximately 65% was removed via the watershed outlet and 35% was stored in the floodplain and stream system. This study successfully applied the SWAT model's modified streambank erosion and instream P routines and demonstrated that streambank‐derived P can improve P modeling at the watershed scale. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Nitrate and sediment fluxes from a California rangeland watershed

Long-term water quality records for assessing natural variability, impact of management, and that guide regulatory processes to safeguard water resources are rare for California oak woodland rangelands. This study presents a 20-yr record (1981-2000) of nitrate-nitrogen (NO(3)-N) and suspended sediment export from a typical, grazed oak woodland watershed (103 ha) in the northern Sierra Nevada foothills of California. Mean annual precipitation over the 20-yr period was 734 mm yr(-1) (range 366-1205 mm yr(-1)). Mean annual stream flow was 353 mm y(-1) (range 87-848 mm yr(-1)). Average annual stream flow was 48.1 +/- 16% of precipitation. Mean annual NO(3)-N export was 1.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (range 0.18-3.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Annual NO(3)-N export significantly (P < 0.05) increased with increasing annual stream flow and precipitation. Mean daily NO(3)-N export was 0.004 kg ha(-1) d(-1) (range 10(-5) to 0.55 kg ha(-1) d(-1)). Mean annual suspended sediment export was 198 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (range 23-479 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). There was a positive relationship (P < 0.05) between annual suspended sediment export, annual stream flow and precipitation. Mean daily suspended sediment export was 0.54 kg ha(-1) d(-1) (range 10(-4) to 155 kg ha(-1) d(-1)). Virtually no sediment was exported during the dry season. The large variation in daily and annual fluxes highlights the necessity of using long-term records to establish quantitative water quality targets for rangelands and demonstrates the difficulty of designing a water quality monitoring program for these ecosystems.     

Evaluation of a denitrification wall to reduce surface water nitrogen loads

Denitrification walls have significantly reduced nitrogen concentrations in groundwater for at least 15 yr. This has spurred interest in developing methods to efficiently increase capture volume to reduce N loads in larger watersheds. The objective of this study was to maximize treatment volume by locating a wall where a large groundwatershed was funneled toward seepage slope headwaters. Nitrogen concentration and load were measured before and after wall installation in paired treatment and control streams. Beginning 2 d after installation, nitrogen concentration in the treatment stream declined from 6.7 ± 1.2 to 3.9 ± 0.78 mg L and total N loading rate declined by 65% (391 kg yr) with no corresponding decline in the control watershed. This wall, which only comprised 10 to 11% of the edge of field area that contributed to the treatment watershed, treated approximately 60% of the stream discharge, which confirmed the targeted approach. The total load reduction measured in the stream 155 m downstream from the wall (340 kg yr) was higher than that found in another study that measured load reductions in groundwater wells immediately around the wall (228 kg yr). This indicated the possibility of an extended impact on denitrification from carbon exported beyond the wall. This extended impact was inauspiciously confirmed when oxygen levels at the stream headwaters temporarily declined for 50 d. This research indicates that targeting walls adjacent to streams can effectively reduce N loading in receiving waters, although with a potentially short-term impact on water quality.     

DETERMINING THE SOURCE OF STREAM CONTAMINATION IN A KARST‐WATER SYSTEM,SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,USA1

ABSTRACT: Karst terrane provides a linkage between surface water and ground water regimes by means of caves, sinkholes and swallets, and sinking streams, and facilitates the inter‐watershed transfer of water and contaminants through these subsurface systems. The goal of this study was to develop procedures to identify the sources of degradation of a creek situated in a complex karst‐water system. The study approach consisted of using dye tracing technique to determine subsurface flow paths through the karst system, a water‐sampling network to identify and characterize pollution sources within the surface watershed and subsurface flow regime, and evaluation of analytical data for several water quality parameters. The results of this study provide an interesting perspective of water and contaminant movement in karst‐water systems and pinpoint the sources of stream contamination for a case study site in southwest Virginia where two springs supply water to a contaminated freshwater stream.     

Assessment of manure phosphorus export through turfgrass sod production in Erath County, Texas

A best management practice (BMP) for exporting manure phosphorus (P) in turfgrass sod from the North Bosque River (NBR) watershed in central Texas was assessed using a geographic information system (GIS). The NBR watershed has a mandate to reduce the total annual P load to the NBR by 50% as a result of total maximum daily load regulation. Since dairy waste applications to fields are identified as the major nonpoint source of P to the river, innovative BMPs, such as export of manure P in turfgrass, will be needed to achieve the 50% reduction. However, methods are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these innovative management practices prior to their implementation. A geospatial database of suitable turfgrass production sites was developed for Erath County using GIS. Erath County largely encompasses the upper portion of the NBR watershed. Information from field experiments, production practices, and ground-truthing was used to search, analyze, and verify a geospatial database developed from national and regional sources. The integration and analyses of large databases supports the search by turf producers for sites suitable for turfgrass sod production in Erath County. In addition, GIS enables researchers and regulators to estimate manure P exports and reduced P loading due to implementation of the manure export BMP on a county scale. Under optimal conditions 198,000 kg manure P yr(-1) could be used and 114,840 kg manure P yr(-1) exported from the NBR watershed through implementation of a system using dairy manure to produce turfgrass sod. This is the equivalent of the manure P applied from 10,032 dairy cows yr(-1) and exported from 5808 dairy cows yr(-1). Application of GIS to large-scale planning and decision-making transcends traditional field-scale applications in precision agriculture.     

Nitrogen loads through baseflow, stormflow, and underflow to Rehoboth Bay, Delaware

A detailed study of water and nitrogen (N) discharge from a small, representative subwatershed of Rehoboth Bay, Delaware, was conducted to determine total N loads to the bay. The concentrations of ammonium (NH4(+)), nitrate + nitrite (NO3(-) + NO2(-)), and dissolved and particulate organic N were determined in baseflow and storm waters discharging from Bundicks Branch from October 1998 to April 2002. A novel hydrographic separation model that accounts for significant decreases in baseflow during storm events was developed to estimate N loads during unsampled storms. Nitrogen loads based on gauged flows alone (7100-19,100 kg/yr) significantly underestimated those based on land use-land cover (LULC) and estimated N export factors from different classes of LULC (32,000-40,600 kg/yr). However, when ungauged underflow and associated N loads were included in the total loads (25,500-33,800 kg/yr), there was much better agreement with LULC export models. This suggests that in permeable coastal plain sediments, underflow contributes significantly to N fluxes to estuarine receiving waters, particularly in drier years. Based on the similarity in LULC, N loads from the Bundicks Branch subwatershed were used to estimate upland loads to the entire Rehoboth Bay Watershed (259,000-316,000 kg/yr). These N loads from the watershed were much greater than those from direct atmospheric deposition (49,000-64,500 kg/yr) and from a local wastewater treatment plant (9700-13,700 kg/yr). While the watershed was the principal source of N at all times during the year, the relative contributions from the watershed, wastewater, and direct atmospheric deposition varied predictably with season.     

MODELING FECAL COLIFORM CONTAMINATION IN THE RIO GRANDE1

This study examines sources of fecal coliform in Segment 2302 of the Rio Grande, located south of the International Falcon Reservoir in southern Texas. The watershed is unique because the contributing drainage areas lie in Texas and Mexico. Additionally, the watershed is mostly rural, with populated communities known as “colonias.” The colonias lack sewered systems and discharge sanitary water directly to the ground surface, thus posing an increased health hazard from coliform bacteria. Monitoring data confirm that Segment 2302 is not safe for contact recreation due to elevated fecal coliform levels. The goal of the study was to simulate the observed exceedences in Segment 2302 and evaluate potential strategies for their elimination. Fecal coliform contributions from ranching and colonia discharges were modeled using the Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF). Model results indicated that the regulatory 30‐day geometric mean fecal coliform concentration of 200 colony forming units (cfu) per 100 milliliters is exceeded approximately three times per year for a total of 30 days. Ongoing initiatives to improve wastewater facilities will reduce this to approximately once per year for 14 days. Best management practices will be necessary to reduce cattle access to streams and eliminate all exceedences. The developed model was limited by the relatively sparse flow and fecal coliform data.     

STATISTICAL LOW FLOW ESTIMATION USING GIS ANALYSIS IN HUMID MONTANE REGIONS IN PUERTO RICO1

ABSTRACT: Statistical analysis of watershed parameters derived using a Geographical Information system (GIS) was done to develop equations for estimating the 7d–10yr, 30d–10yr, and 7d–2yr low flow for watersheds in humid montane regions of Puerto Rico. Digital elevation models and land use, geology, soils, and stream network coverages were used to evaluate 21 geomorphic, 10 stream channel, 9 relief, 7 geology, 4 climate, and 2 soil parameters for each watershed. To assess which parameters should be used for further investigation, a correlation analysis was used to determine the independence and collinearity among these parameters and their relationship with low flows. Multiple regression analyses using the selected parameters were then performed to develop the statistical models of low flows. The final models were selected in the basis of the Mallow Cp statistic, the adjusted R², the Press statistic, the degree of collinearity, and an analysis of the residuals. In the final models, drainage density, the ratio of length of tributaries to the length of the main channel, the percent of drainage area with northeast aspect, and the average weighted slope of the drainage were the most significant parameters. The final models had adjusted standard errors of 58.7 percent, 59.2 percent, and 48.6 percent for the 7d–10yr, 30d–10yr, and 7d–2yr low flows respectively. For comparison, the best model based on watershed parameters that can be easily measured without a GIS had an adjusted standard error of 82.8 percent.     

STATEWIDE EMPIRICAL MODELING OF BACTERIAL CONTAMINATION OF SURFACE WATERS1

ABSTRACT: Bacterial contamination of surface waters is attributed to both urban and agricultural land use practices and is one of the most frequently cited reasons for failure to meet standards established under the Clean Water Act (CWA) (P.L. 92–500). Statewide modeling can be used to determine if bacterial contamination occurs predominantly in urban or agricultural settings. Such information is useful for directing future monitoring and allocating resources for protection and restoration activities. Logistic regression was used to model the likelihood of bacterial contamination using watershed factors for the state of Maryland. Watershed factors included land cover, soils, topography, hydrography, locations of septic systems, and animal feeding operations. Results indicated that bacterial contamination occurred predominantly in urban settings. Likelihood of bacterial contamination was highest for small watersheds with well drained and erodible soils and a high proportion of urban land adjacent to streams. The number of septic systems and animal feeding operations and the amount of agricultural land were not significant explanatory factors. The urban infrastructure tends to “connect” more of the watershed to the stream network through the creation of roads, storm sewers, and wastewater treatment plants. This may partly explain the relationship between urbanization and bacterial contamination found in this study.     

IDW‐Plus: An ArcGIS Toolset for Calculating Spatially Explicit Watershed Attributes for Survey Sites

Watershed characteristics such as land‐use and land‐cover affect stream condition at multiple scales, but it is widely accepted that conditions in close proximity to the stream or survey site tend to have a stronger influence. Although spatially weighted watershed metrics have existed for years, nonspatial lumped landscape metrics (i.e., areal mean or percentage) are still widely used because relatively few technical skills are needed to implement them. The Inverse Distance Weighted Percent Land Use for Streams (IDW‐Plus) custom ArcGIS toolset provides the functionality to efficiently calculate six spatially explicit watershed metrics which account for the Euclidean or flow length distance to the stream or outlet, as well as the probability for overland runoff. These include four distance‐weighted metrics, those being inverse Euclidean distance to the stream or outlet, and the inverse flow length to the stream or outlet. Two tools are also included to generate hydrologically active (i.e., runoff potential), inverse flow length to the stream or outlet metrics. We demonstrate the tools using real data from Southeast Queensland, Australia. We also provide detailed instructions, so readers can recreate the examples themselves before applying the tools to their own data.     

GIS-based spatial regression and prediction of water quality in river networks: A case study in Iowa

Nonpoint source pollution is the leading cause of the U.S.’s water quality problems. One important component of nonpoint source pollution control is an understanding of what and how watershed-scale conditions influence ambient water quality. This paper investigated the use of spatial regression to evaluate the impacts of watershed characteristics on stream NO₃NO₂-N concentration in the Cedar River Watershed, Iowa. An Arc Hydro geodatabase was constructed to organize various datasets on the watershed. Spatial regression models were developed to evaluate the impacts of watershed characteristics on stream NO₃NO₂-N concentration and predict NO₃NO₂-N concentration at unmonitored locations. Unlike the traditional ordinary least square (OLS) method, the spatial regression method incorporates the potential spatial correlation among the observations in its coefficient estimation. Study results show that NO₃NO₂-N observations in the Cedar River Watershed are spatially correlated, and by ignoring the spatial correlation, the OLS method tends to over-estimate the impacts of watershed characteristics on stream NO₃NO₂-N concentration. In conjunction with kriging, the spatial regression method not only makes better stream NO₃NO₂-N concentration predictions than the OLS method, but also gives estimates of the uncertainty of the predictions, which provides useful information for optimizing the design of stream monitoring network. It is a promising tool for better managing and controlling nonpoint source pollution.     

SPARROW Modeling of Nitrogen Sources and Transport in Rivers and Streams of California and Adjacent States,U.S.

The SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) model was used to evaluate the spatial distribution of total nitrogen (TN) sources, loads, watershed yields, and factors affecting transport and decay in the stream network of California and portions of adjacent states for the year 2002. The two major TN sources to local catchments on a mass basis were fertilizers and manure (51.7%) and wastewater discharge (15.9%). Other sources contributed < 12%. Fertilizer use is widespread in the Central Valley region of California, and also important in several other regions because of the diversity of California agriculture. Precipitation, sand content of surficial soils, wetlands, and tile drains were important for TN movement to stream reaches. Median streamflow in the study area is about 0.04 m³/s. Aquatic losses of nitrogen were found to be most important in intermittent and small to medium sized streams (0.2‐14 m³/s), while larger streams showed less loss, and therefore are important for TN transport. Nitrogen loss in reservoirs was found to be insignificant, possibly because most of the larger ones are located upstream of nitrogen sources. The model was used to show loadings, sources, and tributary inputs to several major rivers. The information provided by the SPARROW model is useful for determining both the major sources contributing nitrogen to streams and the specific tributaries that transport the load.