Energy Conservation in Rapid-Growth Economies of Asia

Energy demand, including demand for petroleum, is expected to increase at a faster rate in the rapidly-developing nations of East and Southeast Asia than elsewhere in the world through the turn of the century. In the aggregate, the countries of this region are heavily dependent on imported oil, coal and natural gas. Rapid industrialization, electrification and increased consumer demand for energy-consuming durable goods and housing underlie the expected strong growth in energy consumption. Substantial scope for greater economy in energy-use exists in the industrial and transport sectors but effects in these areas will require effective management and institutional support in addition to getting prices right. In the context of balance of payments and external debt considerations, and the continued growth of energy consumption in East and Southeast Asia, improving energy conservation will be of great importance in lessening the likelihood that future economic development will be constrained by energy problems.     

The outlook for oil

Between now and 2000, the demand for oil is expected to be moderate and the supply abundant. Economic growth is almost twice as slow as in 1973 and requires 25–30% less energy per unit of GNP. The demand for oil is therefore growing at a rate of two to three times slower. Meeting the demand for oil between now and 2000 is within the capability of the oil-producing countries, in many cases with modest additional investment. Gas and coal will be very cost competitive in relation to oil and will serve as a break on future explosive price increases.     

World phosphate supply

The Bureau of Mines investigated the resources, costs, capacities, market relationships, and short- and long-run supply of phosphate rock and phosphoric acid. The 206 mines and deposits evaluated in 30 market economy countries (MECs) contain an estimated 35.1 billion tonnes of recoverable phosphate rock (demonstrated resource level). US resources are sufficient to satisfy both the domestic market and an export market for phosphate products well beyond 2000. Resource depletion at current producers, however, means new property development (with higher costs) will be required if US production levels are to be maintained. Existing worldwide capacity can satisfy expected demand through the early 1990s. Expansion at existing mines or low demand growth could mean no new property development is required before the late 1990s. Worldwide, almost $8 billion could be required for the development of new phosphate rock properties between now and 2000, given 3% annual growth in demand. Though profit may not be the principal motivation for development of government-owned operations, most properties that could develop in the 1990s would require price increases of 20–50% to break even. To earn a 15% rate of return on investment, prices must rise to nearly double the $23–271 tonne US price level of 1988. Current US phosphate rock and phosphoric acid producers appear to be competitive (on a variable cost basis) with many other suppliers in major markets. New US properties will have higher variable costs than current producers; however, they are competitive with most projected new foreign development. The US phosphoric acid industry will most likely face increased competition as more of the foreign phosphate rock producers develop the capacity to process rock into phosphoric acid and other fertilizer products.     

The world energy situation

The oil crisis has ended on a worldwide scale. Risks of excessive price rises have disappeared. Between now and the year 2000, oil resources costing less than $15/bbl (1988 dollars) will be abundant. Twenty to 25% of the oil consumed in 2000 for thermal uses will be replaced by less costly natural gas and coal. Consumption of these last two energy sources will increase if the cost of oil rises above $20/bbl (1988 dollars). The cost of oil will rise sharply when it becomes reserved for the uses for which it is irreplaceable, ie transport, petrochemicals, the Third World and non-energy uses — probably after 2010.     

Price prospects in Western Europe for internationally traded fossil fuels until 2000

A methodology for the long-term assessment of prices is designed and applied to the international markets for coal, oil and natural gas and likely price developments between 1990 and 2000 are explored. The coal market will remain competitive, and the long-term price will be determined by the total cost of marginal supply. The oil price will be set, even in the long term, substantially above the competitive level, by those who control the exceptional Middle East resource base. The traditional link between gas and oil prices will erode in the 1990s, and gas will be independently and competively priced by the turn of the century. Resource constraints are not expected to push prices upwards within the time horizon of the study. The relative price of gas will fall over the forecast period, and its market share will increase as a consequence.     

The Asia-Pacific petroleum market

The late 1980s saw an astonishing turnaround in the Asian oil market. After years of stagnation, three main factors - economic dynamism, lower oil prices and reduced government regulation of the market - resulted in a consumption surge that surprised even those analysts who had predicted such a recovery. The chronically capacity-surplus refining industry saw a leap in profitability, and new construction began. Rapid demand growth spread from the middle distillates to such formerly depressed products as gasoline and fuel oil, and naphtha markets began to expand again as the petrochemical industry resumed rapid growth. At the same time that demand has been rising and demand patterns have been shifting, other changes have begun. A new environmental awareness has taken root in Asia, and new environmental standards are being set almost daily, not only in the richer countries of East Asia, but also in many of the region's developing nations. Unfortunately, traditional sources of low-sulphur oil for power generation may be limited in the coming decade. Despite many new discoveries within the region, Asian crude availability is shrinking, both in terms of availability on the international market and in terms of percentage contribution to regional oil demand. After years of decreasing reliance, the region will face rapid increases in imports from the Persian Gulf in the 1990s.     

Energy consumption trends in high growth Asian economies before and after 1986

In 1986, world oil prices declined sharply. Lower oil prices have been favourable to economic growth and price stability in Asia. However, oil consumption has also been growing rapidly in developing Asian countries including those dependent on imported oil. The increasing dependence on oil as a source of energy since 1986 is a striking reversal of the previous trend. In their pursuit of rapid industrialization, Asian countries have neglected energy conservation and diversification strategies. Unless energy policy is redirected, countries like Korea, Thailand and the Philippines could be seriously hurt by a sharp rise in oil prices. An increase in oil prices is almost inevitable in the next few years.     

Alternative natural gas contract and pricing structures and incentives for the LNG industry

Gas conversion to liquefied gas (LNG) and transport by LNG tankers is one option for meeting expanding gas consumption and for gas traded internationally. This paper examines the impact of the traditional gas contract provisions of indefinite pricing, market out price ceilings, and take-or-pay requirements on the profitability of LNG projects in the context of markets characterized by price and quantity uncertainty. Simulation experiments are used to examine and calibrate the effects of those provisions. The results provide guidance to operators, host countries and purchasers in structuring such contracts. The paper also assesses prospects of future expansion of world LNG capacity.     

An economic appraisal of the Australian oil and gas industry

The author assesses Australian oil and gas production within the context of overall domestic energy supply and demand. Future domestic production of petroleum is unlikely to meet more than 60% of domestic demand after this decade, although gas reserves should be adequate until 2000. Important economic issues - leasing, royalties, taxation, pricing, and exploration incentives - and their relationship to future supply and demand, are identified and evaluated.     

Road transport fuel demand in the LDCs

Over the last decades, oil consumption in the developing countries hus been increasing rapidly. Road transport has accounted for most of this increase in demand. It is the thesis of this paper that future growth in oil demand in developing countries will occur mainly in the road transport sector and that this growth will be surprisingly strong. Estimated income and price elasticities for several developing countries are presented and forecasts for oil consumption in road transport in the developing countries up to 2010 are given.     

The prospects for nickel What price new capacity?

The average LME nickel price in 1988 was $6.26/lb and in 1989 was $6.00/lb. This contrasts with an average price of $2.11/lb over the period 1982–87. The reasons for this run up on price include increased demand for stainless steel (the largest use of nickel), reflecting the period of sustained economic growth in the OECD countries, and the decline in market stocks which reached unusually low levels in 1987 and 1988. Forecasts of nickel supply and demand for 1990 and beyond are presented and the need for additional capacity estimated. In general new greenfield capacity will not be needed until the late 1990s.     

Trace Gas Emissions from Biomass Burning from Northeast Region in India—Estimates from Satellite Remote Sensing Data and GIS

Biomass burning associated with shifting cultivation areas from the northeastern region of India is an important source of trace gas emissions in the Southeast Asian region. In the present study, satellite data pertaining to IRS-P4 OCM data and DMSP-OLS has been used to quantify the intensity, areal extent and amount of biomass burnt in the northeastern region states at district level. Trace gas emissions have been quantified both by using IPCC based emission ratios and ground based emission ratios obtained from field based studies. Areal estimates with respect to shifting cultivation areas from IRS-P4 OCM satellite data of 4th April 2000 suggested nearly 112.99 km² of the northeastern region of India affected due to shifting cultivation. In the study, DMSP OLS nighttime data has been used to capture the real time fires during the dry season. The results suggested high amount of fires during the March season when compared to April and May. Using the emission ratios obtained from the ground-based studies and IPCC emission ratios, the emissions for the individual non-CO₂ trace gases have been computed in a GIS framework using the biomass data, combustion factors and emission ratios. Results suggested emissions of 2.063 Mt CH₄, 17.94 Mt CO, 1.419 Mt N₂O, and 51.28 Mt NO _x and 2.643 Mt release of CH₄, 3.7204 Mt CO, 0.145 Mt N₂O, and 8.477 Mt NO _x , respectively, from biomass burning due to shifting cultivation for the year 2000, from the northeastern region in India. The study highlights the importance of Satellite Remote sensing data and GIS in quantifying the trace gas emissions from biomass burning.     

Integrating renewable and nonrenewable energy sources

Using renewable energy sources along with fossil fuels can help reduce our dependency on imported oil while also cutting greenhouse gas emissions. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

影响中国碳价的能源价格因素灰关联研究

本文选取中国碳排放价格数据和8种能源价格指数为研究变量,运用灰色关联方法研究了中国能源价格对中国碳价的影响。研究结果发现,化石能源价格对中国碳排放价格的影响较大,特别是煤炭、成品油和基础油价格对碳价的影响最大;低污染能源中,与天然气相比,液化气价格对中国碳排放价格影响明显。研究结果指出了保持碳市场价格稳定、防范价格异常波动的重要性,并从能源价格体系和能源消费结构角度提出了政策建议。     

Oil to 2000

Current surplus oil production capacity had its origins in the price increases of the 1970s. Those increases encouraged both energy conservation and the entry of new producers. Recent increases in oil demand reflect the belief among energy users that in real terms in the long term, prices will be stable. There is good reason to believe that this will be so, even at the current rate of increase it will be 15 years before demand matches current capacity. Given that situation it is difficult to see OPEC following any other pricing policy than the one currently in place. In the meantime market prices will further encourage vertical integration.     

JAMAICA - A CASE STUDY OF ENERGY PLANNING

The analysis shows the impact of the 'New International Energy Order' on Jamaica, a developing country almost totally dependent on imported oil for satisfying national energy demand. The energy supply/demand situation between 1961 and 1976 and the structure of energy consumption by major sectors of the economy are discussed. The high income elasticity of commercial energy demand and the increase in the energy intensity of the economy is directly related to expansion of the alumina industry. The structural problems of decoupling GDP and energy growth are indicated. In particular, the impact of the 'New Energy Order' on the development prospects of major bauxite/alumina producing countries which are deficient in indigenous primary energy resources is assessed. Finally, the indigenous resource base is outlined and the major elements of the five-year (1978–1982) national energy plan summarized.     

China

For the first time since the mid-1960s, China became a net oil importer in 1993. That the country will remain a net oil importer is inevitable and probably irreversible for the foreseeable future. In the period to 2000, its crude oil production is projected to increase only 2% annually, while demand for refined oil products is expected to grow at 6.6% per annum. As a result, China's net oil imports are expected to reach 1.3 million barrels per day in 2000, accounting for almost one-third of its projected oil consumption. Most of the imports will come from the Middle East, and China's dependence on Middle Eastern oil is expected to increase significantly in the future .     

不同生态区域油气田开发对土地覆盖变化的影响

利用RS-GIS技术,分析了四川合兴场气田周围1988年和2000年TM影像和新疆艾桑油气田周围1992年和2000年TM影像土地变化情况。分析结果表明:生态发达的四川合兴场气田周围在油田田开发前后主要为耕地,而建设用地在1988年占区域面积的12.6%,到2000年增加到17.8%。位于生态脆弱区的艾桑油气田,兴建前后主要土地利用类型均为戈壁荒漠、盐碱地,建设用地面积则明显增加,从1992年占总面积的0.02%增加到2000年的0.24%。由此可见,大面积分布式的油气田开发改变了油气田周围土地利用类型的分布。景观格局分析指数表明,四川合兴场周围多样性指数及均匀度指数均呈增加趋势,而艾桑油气田周围多样性指数及均匀度指数均呈现下降趋势。四川合兴场气田周围空间景观呈多样化发展,而新疆艾桑油气田周围空间景观多样性下降,荒漠土地呈扩大化发展趋势。     

LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS - SOME MYTHS DEBUNKED

With natural gas being flared in major producing countries in volumes that would more than satisfy the entire energy needs of developing Africa, world attention is focusing on ways of shipping this premium fuel from sources where it is in surplus to destinations where it is urgently needed. Development and successful operation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) systems provide the means for achieving the purpose. The author reviews six misconceptions that have caused energy planners to underestimate the potential of this new transportation mode. He concludes that, given the necessary financing, international LNG movements could reach some 18 billion cubic feet daily by 1985, representing a ten-fold jump in the traffic.     

Natural gas pricing policies in Southeast Asia

The very dynamic economies of Southeast Asia have recently been experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand. Parallel to this development, there has been an increase in the utilization of indigenous natural gas resources. This article reviews gas-pricing policies in the region, which partly explain the rise in gas utilization. Although diverse, energy pricing policies in Southeast Asia address the common objective of enhancing domestic gas production and utilization.
The article concludes that a more rational gas-pricing policy framework is emerging in the region. In global terms, gas pricing in the region tends to converge in a market-related framework, despite the many different pricing objectives of individual countries, and the predominance of non-economic pricing objectives in certain countries (especially gas-rich nations). Specifically, governments have been flexible enough to follow global trends and initiate changes in contractual agreements (pricing and profit-sharing), giving oil companies more favourable terms, and encouraging continued private investment in gas development. At the same time, promotional pricing has also been used to increase utilization of gas, through set prices and adjusted taxes achieving a lower price level compared to substitute fuels.
For an efficient gas-pricing mechanism, refinements in the pricing framework should be undertaken, as demand for gas approaches existing and/or forecast production capacities.