天然气供气业务风险分析与应急预案设计

近年来,天然气消费量迅速增长,天然气领域的投入和天然气储量、产量和贸易量也呈迅速增长态势,并显示出增长的巨大潜力。天然气市场需求量的大幅度增加与国内天然气供给不足造成的供需不平衡,给天然气供气业务带来了极大的挑战。本文根据近两年来天然气供应面临的危机,分别对天然气供气产业链的上、中、下游的突发事件风险进行分析;并针对供气业务中断带来的风险,从突发事件分级、应急处置流程等两个关键要素着手对应急预案进行优化。该研究对完善天然气供气突发事件应急预案、有效快速应对突发事件提供了参考和指导。     

天然气供气业务风险分析与应急预案设计

天然气市场需求量的大幅度增加与国内天然气供给不足造成的供需不平衡,给天然气供气业务带来了极大的挑战。根据近两年来天然气供应面临的危机,分别对天然气供气产业链的上、中、下游的突发事件风险进行分析;并针对供气业务中断带来的风险,从突发事件分级、应急处置流程等两个关键要素着手对应急预案进行优化。该研究对完善天然气供气突发事件应急预案、有效快速应对突发事件提供了参考和指导。     

The potential supply of energy minerals in Australia

Australia is a sparsely populated country that is well endowed with energy resources, and the size of coal, natural gas, and uranium reserves relative to domestic demand has given Australia the opportunity to become a major exporter of these fuels. This paper assesses Australian supply potential of these three fuels, together with crude oil, through to the early years of the next century. With the exception of crude oil, supply potential appears adequate to meet projected domestic and export demand. However, crude oil supplies are unlikely to meet domestic requirements, and to the shortfall may be considerable.     

Forecast of the demand and supply plan of China’s uranium resources till 2030

This paper’s purpose is to predict China’s uranium resources demand from 2016 to 2030 based on experimental modeling. In addition, we discuss the future supply structure of China’s uranium resources by analyzing the domestic and foreign supply capacity of China’s uranium resources. According the forecast results, Chinese uranium resource demand will reach 21385 tU in 2030 under a medium scenario. Due to the poor endowment of uranium resources, China’s domestic uranium production will increase slowly. It can be calculated that the total demand of uranium resources in China during 2016–2030 will be 216581 tU, the cumulative production of domestic production will be 37900 tU, the overseas production will be 41950 tU, and the international market purchases will be 130574 tU. Hence, the cumulative degree of dependence on foreign resources is approximately 80%. China’s foreign dependence on uranium will be greater than for oil, and the situation will become extremely serious. Therefore, we put forward several suggestions to ensure the supply of China’s uranium resources: (1) strengthening mineral exploration and increasing domestic production, (2) actively operating the “going out” strategy, (3) enhancing the enterprise competition ability, and (4) establishing uranium resource reserves. By these means, China could efficiently guarantee the domestic uranium resource security and respond to the competition of India’s uranium resources demand increased.     

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia—Pacific region

Years of strong economic growth in the Asia—Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters - Indonesia. China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010. over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil.     

Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production1

Elcock, Deborah, 2010. Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):447-460. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00413.x Abstract: This study investigates how meeting domestic energy production targets for both fossil and renewable fuels may affect future water demand. It combines projections of energy production developed by the U.S. Department of Energy with estimates of water consumption on a per-unit basis (water-consumption coefficients) for coal, oil, gas, and biofuels production, to estimate and compare the domestic freshwater consumed. Although total domestic freshwater consumption is expected to increase by nearly 7% between 2005 and 2030, water consumed for energy production is expected to increase by nearly 70%, and water consumed for biofuels (biodiesel and ethanol) production is expected to increase by almost 250%. By 2030, water consumed in the production of biofuels is projected to account for nearly half of the total amount of water consumed in the production of all energy fuels. Most of this is for irrigation, and the West North Central Region is projected to consume most of this water in 2030. These findings identify an important potential future conflict between renewable energy production and water availability that warrants further investigation and action to ensure that future domestic energy demand can be met in an economically efficient and environmentally sustainable manner.     

Impact of different public E&P policies on natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan

Low wellhead domestic gas prices over the past few years have led to the beginning of a shortage in natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan. Gas demand steadily rises in all sectors for being an economical fuel as compare to substitutes. In the view of foregoing consumption trend, the demand for gas is expected to grow with a higher pace during the 2010s. On the contrary, indigenous gas reserves are running out and cannot keep up with the demand. This paper examines the extent of upstream activities in different petroleum policy regimes. The wellhead price for indigenous gas is compared with the prices of alternatives (for example, gas import prices). In order to put the problem in perspective, the relationship between wellhead gas price and cumulative gas reserves in Pakistan are analyzed and we find that the looming gas shortage can be ameliorated in the short-run and eliminated in the long-run through incentivized wellhead price. To put it briefly, the idea is mooted to first take advantage of huge domestic reserves to ensure competitive consumer prices for gas. The findings are applicable to several other economies with under-developed natural resources.     

Asbestos fibre supply and the regulation of asbestos exposure

The USA and Canada are each considering measures to reduce general exposure to asbestos. Product bans and workplace exposure rules may each reduce general exposure by reducing domestic asbestos demand. The effectiveness of demand-reducing measures will depend upon the elasticity of asbestos supply to the domestic market. This paper provides calculations of this elasticity for three fibre grade groupings, using a framework that recognizes international trade in asbestos and the joint product nature of most asbestos fibre production. The results suggest that reductions in North American demand result in relatively substantial changes in asbestos use but very small changes in price.     

Copper resource appraisal

Data are presented indicating the availability of copper from domestic sources in the US—what quantity can be produced and when and at what price. Included are supply and demand data, production methods and costs, geographic location of deposits in the US, by-product relationships and some problems affecting the industry.     

Natural gas pricing policies in Southeast Asia

The very dynamic economies of Southeast Asia have recently been experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand. Parallel to this development, there has been an increase in the utilization of indigenous natural gas resources. This article reviews gas-pricing policies in the region, which partly explain the rise in gas utilization. Although diverse, energy pricing policies in Southeast Asia address the common objective of enhancing domestic gas production and utilization.
The article concludes that a more rational gas-pricing policy framework is emerging in the region. In global terms, gas pricing in the region tends to converge in a market-related framework, despite the many different pricing objectives of individual countries, and the predominance of non-economic pricing objectives in certain countries (especially gas-rich nations). Specifically, governments have been flexible enough to follow global trends and initiate changes in contractual agreements (pricing and profit-sharing), giving oil companies more favourable terms, and encouraging continued private investment in gas development. At the same time, promotional pricing has also been used to increase utilization of gas, through set prices and adjusted taxes achieving a lower price level compared to substitute fuels.
For an efficient gas-pricing mechanism, refinements in the pricing framework should be undertaken, as demand for gas approaches existing and/or forecast production capacities.     

Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau—Insights from system dynamics

Recent, pre-downturn, disturbance in the global helium market can be traced to the tight supply–demand position, which characterizes today’s changing helium supply structure. A detailed System Dynamics model provides fresh insight into the helium question and suggests a production path that is closely associated with future natural gas production. Venting of un-extracted helium to the atmosphere remains a central issue. The model indicates that improving resource exploitation strategies might extend a production plateau that emerges in the 2030s. Substitution will result in more helium being vented. To mitigate this, the industry needs to ensure security of supply (particularly after the Bureau of Land Management reserve is sold).     

道路车辆电工电子设备高加速寿命试验

成熟的汽车企业已经将高加速环境应力试验引入装车电工电子设备的研发、试产和批量供货的管理中,其需求已进入国内检测市场。本文以已发布的车企文件为基础,介绍并讨论高加速寿命试验（HALT）的各项要素和实验室要求。高加速应力筛选（HASS）和稽核（HASA）另行拟文讨论。     

General equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option under the Clean Development Mechanism

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is considered a key instrument to encourage developing countries' participation in the mitigation of global climate change. Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the energy supply and demand side activities are the main options to be implemented under the CDM. This paper analyses the general equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option-the substitution of thermal power with hydropower--in Thailand under the CDM. A static multi-sector general equilibrium model has been developed for the purpose of this study. The key finding of the study is that the substitution of electricity generation from thermal power plants with that from hydropower plants would increase economic welfare in Thailand. The supply side option would, however, adversely affect the gross domestic product (GDP) and the trade balance. The percentage changes in economic welfare, GDP and trade balance increase with the level of substitution and the price of certified emission reduction (CER) units.     

企业绿色供应链管理实践的阶段性及其特征研究

本文在总结绿色供应链管理(GSCM)的现有研究成果与实践经验的基础上,提出可将企业在推进GSCM的实践划分为4个阶段:生存需求阶段、初步合作阶段、源头绿色化阶段、自我价值实现阶段。设计了调查问卷,对165家国内企业在推进GSCM的实践情况进行了调研。研究结果表明:这些企业在GSCM方面尚处于初级阶段,具体表现为由"消极应对"向"有所策划和初步实践"过渡;这一阶段的主要实施手段包括"回收利用生产过程中产生的废料"、"要求供应商提供清洁环保的产品"、"为消费者提供产品相关的环境信息"、"推进清洁生产审核"等。通过该实证研究以期为政府有关部门制定促进可持续发展的相关政策提供参考。     

Water Use for Hydraulic Fracturing of Oil and Gas in the South Platte River Basin,Colorado

Water use for oil and gas development (i.e., hydraulic fracturing) is a concern in semiarid basins where water supply is often stressed to meet demands, and oil and gas production can exacerbate the situation. Understanding the impacts of water use for hydraulic fracturing (HF) on water availability in semiarid regions is critical for management and regulatory decisions. In the current work, we quantify water use for HF at several scales — from municipal to state‐wide — using the IHS Enerdeq database for the South Platte Basin. In addition, we estimate produced water (a by‐product of oil and gas production), using data from the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to explore reuse scenarios. The South Platte River Basin, located in northeastern Colorado, encompasses the Denver‐Metro area. The basin has one of the most productive oil and gas shale formations in Colorado, with much of the production occurring in Weld County. The basin has experienced higher horizontal drilling rates coupled with an increasing population. Results show water use for horizontal and vertical wells averages 11,000 and 1,000 m³, respectively. Water use for HF in the South Platte Basin totaled 0.63% of the basin's 2014 total water demand. For Weld County, water use for HF was 2.4% of total demand, and for the city of Greeley, water use was 7% of total demand. Produced water totaled 9.4 Mm³ in the basin for 2014, which represents 42% of the total water used for HF.     

US strategic minerals: Policy options

The USA is becoming increasingly dependent on key strategic metals (such as chrome, cobalt, manganese and platinum-group metals) from politically unstable regions of the world. This dependence is the result of an inconsistent and fragmented US non-fuel minerals policy. Neglect of the US minerals industry has led to a decline in US mineral production and processing capabilities. Options for a comprehensive US non-fuel minerals policy include increased domestic production; increased substitution and recycling; a domestic stockpiling programme; and diversification of, and ensured access to, foreign sources of supply. These four options are examined and recommendations are made for increased mineral surveys of public lands, a regulatory review, domestic production of strategic minerals, tax incentives, conservation, stockpiling, and a foreign policy that will ensure security of supply.     

集中供热锅炉烟气脱硝技术的开发与应用

通过锅炉结构的改进、SCR工艺装置的优化、快速跟踪负荷变化的还原剂制备及控制调节技术的开发和应用等系统性的工作,有效满足了集中供热锅炉房烟气脱硝工程的技术要求,成功开发了集中供热锅炉烟气脱硝技术。在实际工程应用中,确保了在不同负荷段下,锅炉至SCR装置入口段的温度满足脱硝要求,SCR工艺装置能够在不同负荷下连续稳定运行并很好地跟踪负荷的变化,确保氨逃逸率满足设计要求,保证锅炉的安全稳定运行。     

有色金属行业CO2排放估算方法研究

通过对国内外有色金属行业温室气体排放估算方法研究现状的分析，将联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）温室气体排放清单指南、国际有色行业协会和环境科学研究中的一些常用算法，总结归纳应用于有色金属行业温室气体的排放量估算，从估算方法和结果上分析各种方法的优缺点和使用条件。以原铝生产CO2排放估算为例，对有色金属温室气体排放进行实证分析，为有色金属行业温室气体排放估算提供参选方法，促进有色金属工业的节能减排。     

Geological supply and economic demand: The unresolved equation

Whereas the ultimate world supply of minerals is controlled by geological factors, the actual supply at any particular time is controlled by economic factors. Mineral production is a function of investment in exploration, mining, and processing - and research in these fields. Given the long lead time between a decision to explore and actual production from any deposit found, the increasing difficulty of finding deposits in the well prospected parts of the world, the political barriers to exploration in the less developed countries, the energy barriers to mining and processing ever lower grade ores, and the lengthy time required to develop new exploration, extraction, and processing techniques, adjustments in supply in response to changes in demand cannot be assumed to be automatic.     

Gold demand and supply

Western mine production of gold has been declining in the past five years — at the same time as the price of gold has risen dramatically. Predictions of a continued high demand for gold and the current US interest in adopting some form of ‘gold standard’ have focused attention on the supply of new gold. This paper discusses the structure of gold supply and demand, the present pattern of production of new gold and the possible effect of future price changes on Western gold mine production in the 1980s.