Energy Conservation in Rapid-Growth Economies of Asia

Energy demand, including demand for petroleum, is expected to increase at a faster rate in the rapidly-developing nations of East and Southeast Asia than elsewhere in the world through the turn of the century. In the aggregate, the countries of this region are heavily dependent on imported oil, coal and natural gas. Rapid industrialization, electrification and increased consumer demand for energy-consuming durable goods and housing underlie the expected strong growth in energy consumption. Substantial scope for greater economy in energy-use exists in the industrial and transport sectors but effects in these areas will require effective management and institutional support in addition to getting prices right. In the context of balance of payments and external debt considerations, and the continued growth of energy consumption in East and Southeast Asia, improving energy conservation will be of great importance in lessening the likelihood that future economic development will be constrained by energy problems.     

Toward a CO2 zero emissions energy system in the Middle East region

Climate change and energy security are global challenges requiring concerted attention and action by all of the world’s countries. Under these conditions, energy supplier and exporter countries in the Middle East region are experiencing further challenges, such as increasing domestic energy demand while energy exports have to concurrently be kept at high levels. Middle East countries process the largest proven oil and gas reserves in the world and contribute a large fraction of the world’s CO₂ emissions from the use of these as fuels both domestically and internationally. This paper addresses different policies that could dramatically change the future course of the Middle East region toward a zero CO₂ emission energy system. To this aim, an integrated energy supply–demand model has been developed to analyze required commitments including renewable energy and energy efficiency targets and the potential of nuclear power, all of which should need to be considered in order to reduce CO₂ emissions by 2100. The results indicate that nearly 43% of the global energy of the Middle East region can be supplied from non-fossil fuel resources in 2100.     

Acid rain in Asia

Acid rain has been an issue of great concern in North America and Europe during the past several decades. However, due to the passage of a number of recent regulations, most notably the Clean Air Act in the United States in 1990, there is an emerging perception that the problem in these Western nations is nearing solution. The situation in the developing world, particularly in Asia, is much bleaker. Given the policies of many Asian nations to achieve levels of development comparable with the industrialized world—which necessitate a significant expansion of energy consumption (most derived from indigenous coal reserves)—the potential for the formation of, and damage from, acid deposition in these developing countries is very high. This article delineates and assesses the emissions patterns, meteorology, physical geology, and biological and cultural resources present in various Asian nations. Based on this analysis and the risk factors to acidification, it is concluded that a number of areas in Asia are currently vulnerable to acid rain. These regions include Japan, North and South Korea, southern China, and the mountainous portions of Southeast Asia and southwestern India. Furthermore, with accelerated development (and its attendant increase in energy use and production of emissions of acid deposition precursors) in many nations of Asia, it is likely that other regions will also be affected by acidification in the near future. Based on the results of this overview, it is clear that acid deposition has significant potential to impact the Asian region. However, empirical evidence is urgently needed to confirm this and to provide early warning of increases in the magnitude and spread of acid deposition and its effects throughout this part of the world.     

Identifying the major players behind increasing global carbon dioxide emissions: a decomposition analysis

The paper using data on 114 countries during 1992–2004 identifies the major perpetrators of escalating global emissions. Using the LMDI decomposition technique, we examine the contribution of the major factors in changing the level of emissions. The effect of GDP on emission is found to be substantially more than that of population. However, the income effect shows high fluctuation over time, while the population effect has been roughly constant. The upper middle-income countries, particularly of Europe and Central Asia, despite high economic growth have reduced their emissions substantially, while in the countries of North America, East Asia Pacific and South Asia increase in income have been significantly accompanied by increase in emission. Apart from few low emitting countries, almost all others have been successful in increasing emission efficiency, but their energy efficiencies have not been remarkable. Although emission efficiency has been more instrumental in curtailing emission, in some cases the path of change in emission follows that of change in energy intensity. Thus, both energy and emission intensity have crucial roles in determining the level of emissions. It may be suggested that emphasis should be given on policies oriented towards sufficient counteractive energy and emission efficiencies before embarking on a path towards economic growth.     

Integrated rice-fish culture: Coupled production saves resources

Rice is a key component in global food security, as it is the main ingredient in the daily diets of around 3 billion people, especially in Asia. Like all agricultural production, rice cultivation depends on scarce natural resources. This article briefly outlines the utilization of land and water in rice production, and suggests an approach for optimizing use efficiency, namely through the combination of rice and fish culture. The authors argue that the utilization of land and fresh water is optimized through integrated and complementary production of rice and fish — two basic foods items in daily local diets. The article reviews currently available scientific literature on integrated rice‐fish systems. Rice‐fish culture systems are briefly characterized, and respective yield potential and interactions between rice and fish are discussed. Results of socio‐economic surveys regarding the adoption of integrated rice‐fish culture are summarized. The article also reviews literature on the impact of fish culture on rice field ecology as outlined in studies on weed infestation, insect populations, and greenhouse gas emissions. The article concludes that rice‐fish culture can be an option to help rice producing countries keep pace with soaring domestic demand for food, especially fish. Integrated rice and fish culture optimizes the benefits of scarce land and water resources through complementary use, and exploits the synergies between fish and plant.     

Water resources management in small island countries Cost recovery and demand management

The concepts of cost recovery and demand management in the context of water resources for small island countries are introduced. Water pricing mechanisms which could be used to achieve the goal of cost recovery are discussed. Regulatory and economic measures, and pricing policies for limiting increases in demand ('demand management') are also presented. Examples from island countries are used to illustrate the policies discussed.     

Impact of forest policies on timber production in India: a review

Until the 20th century, forest policies across the globe focused primarily on effective forest utilization for timber production. Subsequent loss of forest land prompted many countries to review and amend such policies, in an attempt to incorporate the principles of conservation and sustainable forest management. One of the countries to implement such changes was India, which introduced new policies, acts and programmes to regulate forest conversion and degradation, beginning in the 1980s. These policies, acts, and programmes included the Forest Conservation Act of 1980, the National Forest Policy of 1988 and the Hon. Supreme Court Order of 1996. All of these regulations affected the timber supply from government forest areas, and created a huge gap in timber supply and demand. Currently, this deficit is met through imports and trees outside forests (TOFs). Timber production from government forest areas is abysmally low (3.35% of total demand) compared to potential timber production from TOFs, which fulfil 45% of the total timber demand in India. This implies that TOFs have immense potential in meeting the growing timber demand; however, they have not been fully utilized due to discrepancies in state level TOFs’ policies. The present paper provides a review of different forest policies, acts and guidelines in relation to timber production in India, and provides specific recommendations in order to maximize timber production in the context of increasing demand for timber products.     

An economic appraisal of the Australian oil and gas industry

The author assesses Australian oil and gas production within the context of overall domestic energy supply and demand. Future domestic production of petroleum is unlikely to meet more than 60% of domestic demand after this decade, although gas reserves should be adequate until 2000. Important economic issues - leasing, royalties, taxation, pricing, and exploration incentives - and their relationship to future supply and demand, are identified and evaluated.     

Oil to 2000

Current surplus oil production capacity had its origins in the price increases of the 1970s. Those increases encouraged both energy conservation and the entry of new producers. Recent increases in oil demand reflect the belief among energy users that in real terms in the long term, prices will be stable. There is good reason to believe that this will be so, even at the current rate of increase it will be 15 years before demand matches current capacity. Given that situation it is difficult to see OPEC following any other pricing policy than the one currently in place. In the meantime market prices will further encourage vertical integration.     

ENERGY DEMAND MANAGEMENT

The article sets out the global framework and the World Bank's current projections of future energy demand by the developing countries. It examines the role of energy pricing policies in achieving a reduction of this demand without a reduction in economic growth. The article then discusses the relative roles of government and the private sector in energy demand management and follows this with a discussion of potential energy savings through pricing and other means in the four major energy using sectors: the household sector, transport, industry and electric power. The paper concludes with an assessment of the overall impact of energy demand management in the next ten years. Cet article établit le cadre global et les projections actuelles de la Banque Mondiale concernant la demande future en énergie des pays en développement. II examine le rôle que joue la politique des prix dans la réduction de cette demande sans toutefois entraïner une diminution de la croissance économique. L'article traïte ensuite des rôles relatifs du gouvernement et du secteur privé en ce qui concerne la gestion de la demande énergétique et se poursuit par une discussion des économies réalisables en matière d'énergie par un système de prix et par d'autres moyens dans les secteurs utilisateurs d'énergie les plus importants: les ménages, le transport, l'industrie et l'electricité. L'article se termine par une évaluation de la portée générale de la gestion de la demande énergétique dans les dix prochaines années. El articulo expone el marco global y las proyecciones de demanda futura de energia realizadas por el Banco Mundial para los países en desarrollo. Examina el rol de la política de precios para alcanzar la reducción de esta demanda sin reducir el crecimiento economico. El articulo analiza luego los roles relativos del gobierno y del sector privado en la administración de la demanda de energía y continúa con la discusion del ahorro potencial de energia a través de política de precios y otros medios én los cuatro sectores mayores consumidores de energía: doméstico, transporte, industria y electricidad. El articulo termina con una evaluación del impacto general de la administración de la demanda en los próximos 10 años.     

Panel heterogeneous distribution analysis of trade and modernized agriculture on CO2 emissions: The role of renewable and fossil fuel energy consumption

In line with the global target of reducing climate change and its impact, this study explored the causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, modernized agriculture, trade openness, aggregate and disaggregate energy consumption in 14 African countries from 1990–2013 using a panel quantile estimation procedure. The empirical results showed that value addition to agricultural commodities declines CO₂ emissions in countries with high pollution levels. The study revealed a positive nexus between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption homogeneously distributed across quantiles. Trade openness was found to lower CO₂ emissions in countries with lower and higher levels of environmental pollution. While fossil fuel energy consumption was found to exacerbate CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption confirmed its mitigating effect on environmental pollution. The institution of climate‐smart agricultural options will sustainably increase productivity and income while adapting to climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Diversification of energy technologies with clean and modern energy sources like renewables avoid the over‐dependence on fossil fuels for agricultural purposes. Trade policies can stimulate flows of technology and investment opportunities for specialization in production and economies of scale. Hence, the consideration of policies that boost agricultural sector productivity and create an efficient market for international trade in Africa will help in improving livelihoods.     

The Asia-Pacific petroleum market

The late 1980s saw an astonishing turnaround in the Asian oil market. After years of stagnation, three main factors - economic dynamism, lower oil prices and reduced government regulation of the market - resulted in a consumption surge that surprised even those analysts who had predicted such a recovery. The chronically capacity-surplus refining industry saw a leap in profitability, and new construction began. Rapid demand growth spread from the middle distillates to such formerly depressed products as gasoline and fuel oil, and naphtha markets began to expand again as the petrochemical industry resumed rapid growth. At the same time that demand has been rising and demand patterns have been shifting, other changes have begun. A new environmental awareness has taken root in Asia, and new environmental standards are being set almost daily, not only in the richer countries of East Asia, but also in many of the region's developing nations. Unfortunately, traditional sources of low-sulphur oil for power generation may be limited in the coming decade. Despite many new discoveries within the region, Asian crude availability is shrinking, both in terms of availability on the international market and in terms of percentage contribution to regional oil demand. After years of decreasing reliance, the region will face rapid increases in imports from the Persian Gulf in the 1990s.     

遗传资源获取与惠益分享:在兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区的机遇与挑战

在分析兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区生物资源和生物贸易特点基础上,本文就《国际生物多样性公约》框架下的《名古屋议定书》在本地区实施的主要机遇和挑战进行了分析。研究认为,本地区各国在具体执行议定书时面临的困难依然严峻,应该不断在议定书的法律框架下规范遗传资源以及相关传统知识的贸易、使用与共享机制。同时,不断完善法律体系建设,提高全民资源保护意识、建立良好信用制度,提高遗传资源获取和鉴定的科学技术水平。     

Effect of crude oil carbon accounting decisions on meeting global climate budgets

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change quantified a cumulative remaining carbon budget beyond which there is a high likelihood global average temperatures will increase more than 2 °C above preindustrial temperature. While there is global participation in mitigation efforts, there is little global collaboration to cooperatively mitigate emissions. Instead, countries have been acting as individual agents with independent emission reduction objectives. However, such asymmetric unilateral climate policies create the opportunity for carbon leakage resulting from the shift in embodied carbon emissions within trade networks. In this analysis, we use an optimization-based model of the global crude trade as a case study to demonstrate the importance of a cooperative, system-level approach to climate policy in order to most effectively, efficiently, and equitably achieve carbon mitigation objectives. To do this, we first characterize the cost and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with the 2014 crude production and consumption system by aggregating multiple data sources and developing a balanced trade matrix. We then optimize this network to demonstrate the potential for carbon mitigation through more efficient use of crude resources. Finally, we implement a global carbon cap on total annual crude emissions. We find that such a cap would require crude consumption to drop from 4.2 gigatons (Gt) to 1.1 Gt. However, if each country had an individual carbon allocation in addition to the global cap consistent with the nationally determined contribution limits resulting from the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, allowable consumption would further decrease to approximately 770 million metric tonnes. Additionally, the carbon accounting method used to assign responsibility for embodied carbon emissions associated with the traded crude further influences allowable production and consumption for each country. The simplified model presented here highlights how global cooperation and a system-level cooperative approach could guide climate policy efforts to be more cost effective and equitable, while reducing the leakage potential resulting from shifting trade patterns of embodied carbon emissions. Additionally, it demonstrates how the spatial distribution of crude consumption and production patterns change under a global carbon cap given various carbon accounting strategies.     

World coal outlook: 1990s

In the 1990s for the newly industrializing nations of the Pacific Rim and for the OECD countries as well, the demand for energy is expected to increase at a rate in excess of that of the increase in GNP. The demand for coal is likely to increase as well but probably to a lesser degree than GNP. This is because coal can expect increasing competition not from oil, but from natural gas. For a whole host of reasons, economic as well as environmental, gas could be the preferred fuel of the 1990s. Nevertheless, coal prices can be expected to increase but low cost production due to come on stream shortly, is likely to keep those increases modest.     

Changing Approaches to Mountain Watersheds Management in Mainland South and Southeast Asia

Mountain watersheds, comprising a substantial proportion of national territories of countries in mainland South and Southeast Asia, are biophysical and socioeconomic entities, regulating the hydrological cycle, sequestrating carbon dioxide, and providing natural resources for the benefit of people living in and outside the watersheds. A review of the literature reveals that watersheds are undergoing degradation at varying rates caused by a myriad of factors ranging from national policies to farmers' socioeconomic conditions. Many agencies—governmental and private—have tried to address the problem in selected watersheds. Against the backdrop of the many causes of degradation, this study examines the evolving approaches to watershed management and development. Until the early 1990s, watershed management planning and implementation followed a highly centralized approach focused on heavily subsidized structural measures of soil conservation, planned and implemented without any consultation with the mainstream development agencies and local people. Watershed management was either the sole responsibility of specially created line agencies or a project authority established by external donors. As a consequence, the initiatives could not be continued or contribute to effective conservation of watersheds. Cognizant of this, emphasis has been laid on integrated, participatory approaches since the early 1990s. Based on an evaluation of experiences in mainland South and Southeast Asia, this study finds not much change in the way that management plans are being prepared and executed. The emergence of a multitude of independent watershed management agencies, with their own organizational structures and objectives and planning and implementation systems has resulted in watershed management endeavors that have been in complete disarray. Consistent with the principle of sustainable development, a real integrated, participatory approach requires area-specific conservation programs that are well incorporated into integrated socioeconomic development plans prepared and implemented by local line agencies in cooperation with nongovernment organizations (NGOs) and concerned people.     

Indicators for sustainable energy development in Mexico

This article presents a summary of a study on the application to the Mexican energy sector of a core set of indicators for sustainable energy development (ISED), developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The study focused on the elaboration of socio‐economic and environmental indicators related to energy production and use, and was aimed at assessing Mexico's existing energy policies and identifying strategies and possible policies that could bring about improvements in major priority areas: energy intensity, atmospheric emissions, energy import dependency and use of renewables. While positive trends have been observed in relation to energy intensity and atmospheric emissions, Mexico is becoming more dependent on imports of gasoline, natural gas and other high‐value secondary energy sources, while exporting significant amounts of primary fuels, such as crude oil. Also, no significant increase has been observed in the use of renewable sources of energy. Social, economic and environmental policies need to be formulated for the energy sector and related investments (public and private) reinforced so that all economic sectors have access to energy from cleaner and more diverse sources.     

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia—Pacific region

Years of strong economic growth in the Asia—Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters - Indonesia. China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010. over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil.