Using GRADE to respond to health questions with different levels of urgency

Increasing interest exists in applying the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to environmental health evidence. While ideally applied to evidence synthesized in systematic reviews and corresponding summary tables, such as evidence profiles, GRADE's correct application requires that “the evidence that was assessed and the methods that were used to identify and appraise that evidence should be clearly described.” In this article, we suggest that GRADE could be applied to evidence assembled from narrative reviews, modelled (indirect) evidence, or evidence assembled as part of a rapid response, if the underlying judgments about the certainty in this evidence are based on the relevant GRADE domains and provided transparently. Health questions that require assessing the certainty in a body of evidence to provide trustworthy answers may range from hours, to days or weeks, to a few months to scenarios that allow assessing evidence without short-term time pressures. Time frames of emergent, urgent or rapid evidence assessments will often require relying on existing summaries or rapidly compiling the available evidence and making assessments. Even without available full systematic reviews, expressing the certainty in the evidence can provide useful guidance for users of the evidence and those who evaluate certainty in effects. The ratings also help clarifying disagreement between organizations tackling similar questions about the evidence. Using the structured GRADE domains, narrative or other summaries of the evidence can be presented transparently.     

Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes

Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Modelling the propagation of effects of chronic exposure to ionising radiation from individuals to populations

This study evaluated the potential effect of ionising radiation on population growth using simple population models and parameter values derived from chronic exposure experiments in two invertebrate species with contrasting life-history strategies. In the earthworm Eisenia fetida, models predicted increasing delay in population growth with increasing gamma dose rate (up to 0.6 generation times at 11 mGy h(-1)). Population extinction was predicted at 43 mGy h(-1). In the microcrustacean Daphnia magna, models predicted increasing delay in population growth with increasing alpha dose rate (up to 0.8 generation times at 15.0 mGy h(-1)), only after two successive generations were exposed. The study examined population effects of changes in different individual endpoints (including survival, number of offspring produced and time to first reproduction). Models showed that the two species did not respond equally to equivalent levels of change, the fast growing daphnids being more susceptible to reduction in fecundity or delay in reproduction than the slow growing earthworms. This suggested that susceptibility of a population to ionising radiation cannot be considered independent of the species' life history.     

A gender approach to understanding the differentiated impact of barriers to adaptation: responses to climate change in rural Ethiopia

While adaptation has received a fair amount of attention in the climate change debate, barriers to adaptation are the focus of a more specific, recent discussion. In this discussion, such barriers are generally treated as having a uniform, negative impact on all actors. However, we argue that the precise nature and impact of such barriers on different actors has so far been largely overlooked. Our study of two drought-prone communities in rural Ethiopia sets out to examine how female- and male-headed households adapt to climate change, particularly focusing on how a variety of barriers influence the choice of adaptation measures to varying extents. To this purpose, we built a conceptual framework based on the Sustainable Livelihood Approach. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with male- and female-headed households, community leaders and local extension workers. Our findings suggest that gender-based differences in the choice of adaptation measures at the household level are driven by cultural, social, financial and institutional barriers. Barriers to adaptation—particularly when interacting—have a differentiated impact upon different actors. This outcome hints at the need for donors and policymakers to develop intervention strategies that are sensitive to this fact.     

Morphological and biological features of plants related to their adaptation to coastal habitats

The results of studies on the biomorphological features of 22 plant species growing on the southern coast of the Russian Far East provide evidence for the diversity of pathways of their adaptation to stressful habitat conditions. An analysis of the anatomical and mesostructural characteristics of their leaves has revealed representatives of euhalophytes, crinohalophytes, and glycohalophytes among these plants. Adaptation is achieved by means of halomorphosis, haloxerophytism, and development of some heliophilic features accounted for by species-specific manifestations of succulence, the presence of salt excreting trichomes, and thick pubescence. The similarity of these adaptations to those of desert plants is discussed. Along with plants characterized by a high germination rate, species that counterbalance a low efficiency of seed reproduction by active vegetative propagation have also successfully established themselves on the coast. Adaptation to coastal habitats is also achieved due to the diversity of life forms characterized mainly by tap root systems with laterally extending branch roots, creeping shoots, and a high vegetative mobility.     

Policy sciences contributions to analysis to promote sustainability

The policy sciences, in offering the most comprehensive approach to policy analysis and the sociopolitical processes that shape policy outcomes, is particularly appropriate for guiding the analysis required to promote sustainability. This article presents the main components of the policy sciences framework and demonstrates its potency in the crucial task of deepening the problem definitions required to select and enact policies to promote sustainability. As such, it provides background for the policy sciences articles of this special feature.

农户参与生态补偿行为意愿影响因素分析

长期以来,资源无限、环境无价的观念根深蒂固地存在于人们的思维中,也渗透在社会和经济活动的体制和政策中.随着生态环境破坏的加剧和生态系统服务功能的研究,使人们更为深入地认识到生态环境的价值.而"生态补偿"是促进生态环境保护的一种经济手段,农户参与生态补偿的意愿既受到主观因素和非主观因素的影响,也受到理性和非理性因素的作用,是多因素综合影响的结果,其中内部因素即家庭生计资本.本文以黑河流域中游为例,选取300户随杌样本,分析了农户参与生态补偿的意愿与生计资本的关系研究,结果表明:自然资本对农户参与生态补偿的意愿形成星负面影响作用,人力资本、物质资本、金融资本和社会资本对农户参与生态补偿的意愿形成正面影响作用.这说明,农户在市场经济条件下正在变得越来越理性,他们参与生态补偿的核心在于最大化地获取经济利益,政府要一方面尽可能地降低农户实施生态补偿后的各种风险因素,另一方面,要尽可能地提高农户承担生态补偿风险的能力.     

Application of fuzzy models to assess susceptibility to droughts from a socio-economic perspective

By combining the concepts of environmental stress, state susceptibility and environmental crisis, “Security Diagram” (SD) provides a quantitative approach to assessing environmental change and human security. The SD is a tool that clearly presents in a diagram the security situation of a population or region affected by a particular environmental crisis. Its underlying concept emphasises that the higher the level of environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility, the higher the probability of the occurrence of crisis. Focusing on drought, this study analyses the susceptibility of case study regions in India, Portugal, and Russia from a socio-economic perspective. A conceptual framework of socio-economic susceptibility is developed based on the economic development theories of modernisation and dependency. Fuzzy set theory is used to generate susceptibility indices from a range of national and sub-national indicators, including financial resources, agricultural dependency and infrastructure development (for economic susceptibility), and health condition, educational attainment and gender inequality (for social susceptibility). Results indicate that socio-economic susceptibility over the period 1980–1995 was highest in India, followed by Russia and (since 1989) lowest in Portugal. Globalisation is likely to contribute to changes in the level of socio-economic susceptibility over time. Moreover, specific social and economic structures unique in each country (e.g., the role of women in society in India, the socialist legacy in Russia) may explain differences in susceptibility between the case study regions.

Geo-based model of intrinsic resilience to climate change: an approach to nature-based solution

A substantial amount of researches have been done on the understanding and assessment of resilience from multiple perspectives, e.g., ecological, social, economic, and disaster management; however, recent international approach is trending toward more systematic and comprehensive risk assessment processes. Pivotal element of such approach is to emphasizing on promoting resilience in the face of climate change impacts. Conceptualization and identification of parameters to assess climate change resilience is one of the remaining challenges that academia is facing. Reviewing the principles of the climate change resilience highlighted in the literature, the goal of this study is to introduce a theoretical model about the climate change resilience concept to facilitate and enhance future climate change resilience-related researches. The model proposed in this study is named as the climate change resilience of place (C-CROP) model, a geo-based model which is designed to assess climate change resilience for any geographic region with an approach to the incorporation of nature-based solution (NBS). C-CROP model considers vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity to climate change on one side; another side is co-benefit, climate proofing, and disservices of proposed NBS. An operational framework of the C-CROP model is also proposed, that allows spatially explicit assessment of climate change resilience in real world by developing an indicator-based framework and comprehensive mapping using the geospatial approach. Therefore, this model includes vulnerability hotspots identification; better understanding of the pathways of resilience; and solutions (i.e., NBS) to infer the impacts and effectiveness of resilience-building interventions.

     

Deposition of gaseous radionuclides to fruit

14C, 35S and 3H are released to the environment during the operation of gas-cooled reactors and were identified as radionuclides of interest by the BIOMASS Fruits Working Group. This paper provides a review of the deposition, uptake, allocation and loss of these radionuclides with respect to fruit and conceptual models for gaseous radionuclides. It is concluded that the mechanisms for the uptake of CO35S, HTO and 14CO2 are well understood and that their deposition velocities have been quantified. There is also a reasonable body of work on the translocation of 14C once in the crop, but much less for 35S and 3H, which are considered to follow source-sink relationships. The loss rates of the three radionuclides show large differences, with tritium lost rapidly in the form of HTO but retained longer when converted to OBT. The losses of 14C are less and those of sulphur are minimal post fixation. When fruit crops alone are considered, the quantity of information is further reduced but predictions on possible behaviour of these radionuclide species can be made from the current knowledge.     

Possible underestimations of risks for the environment due to unregulated emissions of biocides from households to wastewater

The aim of this study was to investigate the role of household products as possible sources of biocidal active substances in municipal wastewater and their regulation under the Biocidal Products Regulation (EU) 528/2012. In 131 households, we investigated the prevalence of products used to control pests, washing and cleaning agents and select personal care products with high release to wastewater. Inventories of these products were established with the help of barcode scanning. All uses of biocidal active substances were evaluated regarding their assessment under the Biocidal Products Regulation.2963 products were scanned in total, with 48% being washing and cleaning agents, 43% personal care products and 9% products used to control pests. Biocidal active substances were found in each household. These were observed primarily in washing and cleaning agents and personal care products (90%), while only a small percentage of the observations of biocidal active substances was in biocidal products. 64% of the observations of biocidal active substances were in applications that do not fall under the Biocidal Products Regulation and are thus not subject to its environmental risk assessment.This study shows clearly that risks for the environment are underestimated because unregulated emissions to wastewater occur. It demonstrates that there are gaps in the current chemical legislation that lead to a release of substances into wastewater that were not subject to environmental risk assessment under the Biocidal Products Regulation. This is one example of the limitations of scientific risk assessment of chemicals – its complexity is immense. From our point of view, the results underline the importance of a sustainable use of the substances as this is the only way to decrease yet unidentified risks.     

Enhanced transfer of arsenic to grain for Bangladesh grown rice compared to US and EU

A field survey was conducted in arsenic impacted and non-impacted paddies of Bangladesh to assess how arsenic levels in rice (Oryza sativa L.) grain are related to soil and shoot concentrations. Ten field sites from an arsenic contaminated tubewell irrigation region (Faridpur) were compared to 10 field sites from a non-affected region (Gazipur). Analysis of the overall data set found that both grain and shoot total arsenic concentrations were highly correlated (P<0.001) with soil arsenic. Median arsenic concentrations varied by 14, 10 and 3 fold for soil, shoot and grain respectively comparing the two regions. The reason for the sharp decline in the magnitude of difference between Gazipur and Faridpur for grain arsenic was due to an exponential decline in the grain/shoot arsenic concentration ratio with increasing shoot arsenic concentration. When the Bangladesh data were compared to EU and US soil-shoot-grain transfers, the same generic pattern could be found with the exception that arsenic was more efficiently transferred to grain from soil/shoot in the Bangladesh grown plants. This may reflect climatic or cultivar differences.     

Five reasons why it is difficult to talk to Australian farmers about the impacts of,and their adaptation to,climate change

Some recent funding programmes in Australia on climate adaptation have expected active engagement with farmers in research projects. Based on our direct experience with 30 farmers and their advisors, we list five reasons why it is difficult to gain traction with farmers in discussing the likely impacts of climate change on their farms and the possible adaptation options they should be considering in preparation for a future changed climate. The reasons concern the slow and uncertain trajectory for changes in climate relative to the time horizon for farm decision-making, when set against short-term fluctuations in weather, prices, costs and government policy. Farmers have optimism for ongoing technological progress keeping abreast of any negative impacts of climate on their production. As one moves from incremental to transformational adaptation options, biophysical research has less to offer because decisions become based more on business structure, portfolio management, off-farm investments and geographical diversification. Some farmers also doubt the intentions of climate change researchers and are wary of anything they may have to offer. We propose there is an actionable decision space where agricultural science and economics can contribute to meaningful analysis of impacts and adaptation to climate change by farmers. This will involve emphasising the principles of farm management rather than defining optimal farm plans; the use of scenario planning to explore possible futures in a turbulent environment for farming; a focus on short-term adjustments as a path to longer term adaptation; re-gaining the trust of some farmers towards climate change scientists through better communication strategies; and understanding the linkages between adaptation options and enabling factors and technologies.     

Prenatal exposure to organochlorine compounds and neuropsychological development up to two years of life

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and dichlorodiphenyl dichloroethylene (pp′DDE) are persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic environmental pollutants with potential neurotoxic effects. Despite a growing body of studies investigating the health effects associated with these compounds, their specific effects on early neuropsychological development remain unclear. We investigated such neuropsychological effects in a population-based birth cohort based in three regions in Spain (Sabadell, Gipuzkoa, and Valencia) derived from the INMA [Environment and Childhood] Project. The main analyses in this report were based on 1391 mother–child pairs with complete information on maternal levels of organochlorine compounds and child neuropsychological assessment (Bayley Scales of Infant Development) at age 14 months. We found that prenatal PCB exposure, particularly to congeners 138 and 153, resulted in impairment of psychomotor development (coefficient = − 1.24, 95% confidence interval = − 2.41, − 0.07), but found no evidence for effects on cognitive development. Prenatal exposure to pp′DDE or HCB was not associated with early neuropsychological development. The negative effects of exposure to PCBs on early psychomotor development suggest that the potential neurotoxic effects of these compounds may be evident even at low doses.     

An approach to comparative assessments of potential health risks from exposure to radionuclides and hazardous chemicals

The need to compare potential health risks to the public associated with different activities that can result in releases of hazardous substances to the environment is becoming increasingly important in decision-making. In making such comparisons, it is desirable to use equivalent indicators of potential health risks for radionuclides, chemical carcinogens, and noncarcinogenic hazardous chemicals. Current approaches to risk assessment that were developed for purposes of protecting human health do not provide equivalent indicators of potential risks from exposure to radionuclides and hazardous chemicals. Comparisons of environmental concentrations or calculated exposures or risks with standards for protection of public health also do not provide equivalent indicators of potential risks. We propose a simple approach to comparative risk assessments in which calculated exposures to any hazardous substances are expressed relative to no-observed-effect levels (NOELs) or, preferably, lower confidence limits of benchmark doses (BMDLs) in humans. This approach provides an equivalent, science-based indicator of the relative risks posed by different exposures to any hazardous substances.     

A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought

In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance of the differences.

Contribution to the characterisation of eco-design projects

Lots of eco-designed projects were carried out successfully, and eco-designed products are now on the market. However, it is very difficult for designers and engineers to compare their design projects to those already done and consequently to reuse the knowledge gained. In a more general perspective, a method to take advantage of previous experiences in eco-design is needed. This paper is a contribution to develop a standard for eco-design practices and proposes a framework to characterise both eco-design projects and eco-tools. Forty case studies from the literature were exploited to extract criteria and options to define the framework. The proposed usage-oriented classification of eco-tools, associated with the practical analysis frame of the design projects, was implemented and finally robust enough to characterise 40 projects.     

Assessment of groundwater quality impacts due to use of coal combustion byproducts to control subsidence from underground mines

Coal combustion byproducts are to be placed in an underground coal mine to control subsidence. The materials were characterized to determine potential groundwater impacts. No problems were found with respect to heavy or toxic metals. Coal combustion byproduct leachates are high in dissolved solids and sulfates. Chloride and boron from fly ash may also leach in initially high concentrations. Because the demonstration site is located beneath deep tight brine-bearing aquifers, no problems are anticipated at the demonstration site.     

Thyroid disruption at birth due to prenatal exposure to beta-hexachlorocyclohexane

OBJECTIVE: Thyroid hormones play an important role in human brain development, and some organochlorine compounds (OCs) act as thyroid disruptors. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the association between prenatal exposure to organochlorine compounds and thyroid function in newborns from a general population birth cohort in Menorca, with an a-priori specific focus on beta-HCH. METHODS: Levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB congeners 28, 52, 101, 118, 138, 153 and 180), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), beta-hexachlorocyclohexane (beta-HCH), dichlorodiphenyl dichloroethylene (p'p'-DDE) and dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane (p'p-DDT) in cord serum, and thyrotropin (TSH) concentration in plasma three days after birth were measured in 387 newborns from Menorca. The TSH concentration was categorized (high or low), except for 27 children whose TSH levels were quantified. RESULTS: Levels of beta-HCH and PCB-153 were positively related to TSH concentrations (gestational age-adjusted coefficient (p-value): 0.26 (p = 0.006) and 0.31 (p = 0.050), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: beta-HCH is potentially a new thyroid disrupting compound, deserving special interest in future studies given its high body burden in humans.