碳关税对中国制造业出口结构和社会福利影响的实证研究

近年来,碳排放逐渐从环境问题演变成政治经济问题,碳关税是发达国家推崇的新型贸易壁垒,以此来增强本国产业竞争力,这对于碳排放量较大的发展中国家无疑会产生较大的不利影响。为了提前做好准备应对发达国家碳关税,以我国出口结构中高碳产品最密集的制造业为对象,研究碳关税措施和出口贸易行业结构之间的关系,在气候变化问题和国际贸易两大体系之间建立关联。本文首先构建碳关税的局部均衡模型,从几何分析和数理分析两个维度出发,探讨美国征收碳关税对我国制造业出口贸易和社会福利产生的影响。在此基础上利用GTAP模型,模拟美国、欧盟等发达国家在四种情境下征收碳关税的情况,分析实施碳关税对我国制造业各行业出口结构的影响,以及对我国社会福利的影响。研究结果表明:美国征收碳关税会导致我国制造业产品出口市场价格下降,出口量减小;我国开征国内碳税会导致制造业产品出口市场价格上升,出口量减小,但出口减小幅度低于美国对我国制造业征收碳关税时的出口减小幅度;美、欧等发达国家征收碳关税将导致我国化工橡胶制品行业、石油煤炭加工工业以及造纸业等能源密集型行业的出口减少,其中受到冲击最严重的行业为造纸业,出口降幅在1.79%-6.05%之间,而其他非能源密集型的制造行业出口增加;我国制造业出口结构在一定程度上得到优化;我国整体福利水平下降,下降水平在21.34亿-83.47亿美元之间。最后,从国际协调、出口结构调整、绿色制造发展等方面提出对策建议,为我国制造业的发展提供借鉴。     

美国征收碳关税对中国碳减排和经济的影响

本文基于全球贸易分析-能源模型(GTAP-E),采用递归动态方法,全面分析美国在2020年针对中国和印度等未实施减排限额的发展中国家实施碳关税对中国碳减排与经济的影响。研究结果表明:美国征收碳关税对我国宏观经济将造成较显著冲击,将导致中国产品贸易流向、贸易结构和生产结构出现显著调整。其中,化学橡胶及塑料制品、机器设备制造、金属冶炼加工产品等隐含碳含量高且对美国市场依赖程度高的部门出口将较大幅度下降,生产遭受较严重的负面影响;此外,与这些产业部门紧密相关的上游资源产品等部门因需求降低也将受到一定的负面影响。但是,其他产业部门则由于生产要素价格下降,生产成本降低,出口和产出将有所增长。虽然美国实施碳关税能降低中国及全球碳排放,但是作用非常有限。基于研究结果,我们提出国家需要防范美国碳关税所导致的贸易和经济风险,并特别注意美国、欧盟和日本等发达国家同时采用碳关税的综合影响。另一方面,中国可以考虑基于"避免双重征税"的原则在国内主动实施碳税,以应对碳关税的实施;同时,需要加强在不同情景下中国主动征收碳税以应对碳关税的相关研究。     

中国农产品应对碳关税策略的理论分析

碳关税是在全球气候变暖和人类环境压力与日俱增的背景下由欧盟等发达国家提出的,是发达国家以环境保护之名的一种新型绿色贸易壁垒.中国是一个农产品生产和出口大国,碳关税的实施必将影响中国的农产品出口.本文首先运用进化博弈理论分析了发展中国家和发达国家对征收碳关税问题上可能采取的最终策略;然后采用古诺模型探讨了在发达国家征收碳关税的背景下,中国应采取哪些策略可以减少对农产品出口的影响;最后,基于情景分析和蒙特卡洛模拟的结果,提出了全球碳关税背景下中国应该采取的最优策略.研究结果显示:①发达国家很可能会强硬征收碳关税,而发展中国家很有可能会妥协.②中国可采取多种措施减轻发达国家征收碳关税对农产品出口的影响.这些措施包括向发达国家征收报复性碳关税、对内征收碳税以及开发低碳农业技术等.③在发达国家征收碳关税的情景下,中国的最优策略是对内征收碳税.基于本文的研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议.     

两岸环境产品贸易增长因素研究

本文以APEC54个环境产品清单为基础,运用修正的恒定市场份额模型(Constawt Market Shave CMS),针对2001-2014年间的两岸环境产品贸易增长因素进行分解。研究显示,出口价格竞争效应是大陆对台湾环境产品出口增长的主导因素,其次是出口商品结构效应,市场需求引致效应则阻碍了大陆对台湾环境产品进一步出口增长。台湾对大陆出口环境产品增长因素与大陆对台湾相比有所异同,尽管出口价格竞争效应也是台湾对大陆环境产品出口增长的最主要因素(其次是市场需求引致效应),但出口商品结构效应对增长贡献较低。笔者为促进两岸环境产品贸易增长,实现两岸贸易与环境两者间的协调平衡发展提出有关对策建议。     

论碳关税的福利效应

哥本哈根会议上碳关税引发热议,成为发达国家和发展中国家讨论的焦点.本文从碳关税的内涵出发,梳理了有关碳关税问题的已有研究,通过建立一个简单的局部均衡模型,对征收碳关税情况下进口国、出口国的福利以及全球福利变化进行了分析,研究得出:进口国征收碳关税能提高本国福利水平,减低出口国的福利水平,但福利变化程度取决于进口国国内碳税、出口国是否征税国内碳税、进出口国国内碳密集度水平等情况.进一步.由于温室气体排放是全球公共品,用全球福利最大化代替进口国福利最大的约束条件,探讨了最优碳关税的确定方法,认为最优碳关税取决于需求函数和供给函数的值,由出口国国内碳税与外部性的差异与进口国国内碳税与外部性差异的比值来决定.温室气体减排是国际贸易面临的新问题,碳关税仅仅拉开了以气候变化之名进行国际贸易保护的序幕,如何有效地将国际气候变化规则纳入国际贸易利益的维护中是我们未来面临的重要课题.     

边境碳调节对中国EITE产业竞争力和碳泄漏的影响

碳市场碎片化状态使各国碳排放因减排力度差异而消长,不仅造成碳泄漏风险,同时对减排国家经济特别是排放密集产业的国际竞争力产生负面冲击。本文建立多区域多部门CGE模型,设计4种边境碳调节政策,模拟分析其对我国的福利、碳泄漏和出口型排放密集产业(EITE)竞争力产生的政策效应。研究显示,我国制定边境碳调节政策,既要考虑碳关税也要考虑出口返还,前者有利于改善我国的福利水平,后者可以收到抑制碳泄漏和保持EITE产业国际竞争力的效果,因而有必要把边境碳调节政策纳入我国碳市场制度设计。无论从产出还是贸易来看,我国EITE产业中的非金属矿、有色金属、钢铁产业在边境碳调节政策影响下,面临来自日本和亚洲其他国家的竞争压力,双方的碳泄漏和产业竞争力呈现此消彼长的动态变化。在我国碳市场建设过程中,边境碳调节政策与拍卖相结合,有利于在实现碳减排目标和维护产业竞争力之间实现平衡。     

大国气候博弈的中国经济与生态环境效应评估

气候变化已成为制约人类社会可持续发展的重要议题，未来拥有更多碳减排空间和先进碳技术的国家将在全球发展中处于有利地位。以美国为首的发达国家、气候变化政策的主要推动者欧盟以及以中国为代表的发展中国家等三方在全球气候变化领域的领导权与话语权争夺将更加激烈。欧美推动的碳关税政策已成为大国气候博弈的有力工具，如何在大国气候博弈中破局成为中国制定气候战略和减碳政策的重点。该研究利用全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型，以欧盟和美国对进口产品施加碳关税政策进行大国气候博弈为假设，设定八种可能情景，对中国受到的经济与生态环境影响进行评估。结果表明：(1)欧美推动的碳关税政策一定程度上造成中国国内生产总值和居民福利出现损失，同时对碳密集型商品出口有较大程度的负面影响，但对整体减排影响较为微弱。(2)欧美的碳关税政策对于欧美自身的碳减排效果并不明显，是典型的“损人不利己”行为。(3)中国出口退税政策一定程度上可以减缓碳关税政策对中国经济的负面冲击，还可以在一定程度上减少中国的碳排放。(4)中国政府需谨慎对待对进口商品施加碳关税的反制措施，其可能会带来更为严重的经济损失。建议中国采取出口退税政策主动缓解碳关税带来的...     

环境外部性对出口结构和贸易政策选择的影响——基于中国高耗能产业的证据

出口贸易在促进技术和资金快速积累的同时引入了环境污染,经济增长与绿色发展之间的矛盾逐渐凸显。在经济高质量发展阶段,产业出口优势和贸易政策设计需要新的定义和依据。为此,首先结合理论机制,利用市场供需和中央-地方政府博弈等框架从环境排放输入国的角度分析环境成本对一国出口结构和政策倾斜的影响,并探讨具有显著环境外部性的高耗能产业在我国迅速发展的原因和现实特征。其次,使用1997—2017年的投入产出数据,从增加值和环境污染两方面测算高耗能产业出口的隐含社会福利变化。研究结果表明,对环境外部性的忽视会刺激高耗能产业的生产和出口,阻碍出口结构的优化升级。全球金融危机后高耗能产业出口对企业经营、财政收入及劳动岗位创造的带动作用持续减弱,而隐含成本却不断增加,造成了约3%的福利损失。若将这部分成本内部化于比较优势衡量体系中,高耗能产业出口的净经济效益将明显下降,市场竞争力减弱。同时,对环境外部性的忽视也会影响环境规制的力度,导致政策设计中"明降暗补"现象的出现。相比于国际平均水平,我国较低的环境标准会导致对环境损失的低估,从而影响贸易政策的精准制定。基于主要结论,在优化出口结构和设计贸易政策时,通过调整环境税和碳市场的方式提高环境成本可以减少企业决策与社会效率的偏离;加强对高耗能产业的调控并针对不同产业特点实施过渡性政策有助于向高附加值、低污染的结构转型;重建贸易优势判断标准能够引导"污染天堂"的关闭。将环境成本内部化于经济决策,是建设现代化经济体系的关键选择之一。     

碳标签对中国农产品进出口贸易的影响及对策建议

在分析总结国际碳标签制度实施发展状况的基础上,研究了中国农产品进出口贸易的格局、结构与数量现状,结果表明,随着国际贸易中碳标签制度的日益完善,中国未来对发达国家农产品的进口量将增加,对外出口农产品的价格优势将被削弱,出口空间极大压缩。为更好地应对碳标签制度对中国农产品贸易的冲击,中国应尽快建立并完善碳标签体系,发展低碳农业,提高贸易竞争力,对农产品企业绿色转型提供政策支持,加强国际间合作,改善贸易环境,同时发展国内农业,降低对进口农产品的依赖,以缓减碳标签对贸易的冲击,改善未来中国农产品的贸易格局。     

中国出口退税政策对环境保护有正面影响吗?

经济全球化背景下,我国对外贸易在推动经济高速发展的同时,产生的环境问题也日趋严重。出口退税政策作为调节贸易的重要工具,分析其能否促进环境保护,对优化退税政策、推动贸易绿色发展具有重要意义。文章使用2005—2017年部分贸易出口商品的出口额数据,采用双重差分法实证研究2007年出口退税政策对环境保护产生的影响。研究表明:相比于出口退税率没有下降的商品,出口退税率明显下降的"两高一资"型商品出口额显著下降。通过分布滞后回归发现,出口退税政策对"两高一资"型商品出口额的抑制效果呈现显著递增的持续滞后效应。因而,出口退税政策明显抑制了"两高一资"型商品的出口额增长,降低了该类型商品的环境污染,其主要原因有:①随着出口退税政策的调整,要素资源逐渐向创新型企业流动,有利于解决传统重工业的环境污染问题。②出口退税政策将具有外部性的环境成本内部化,降低了"两高一资"型产品的低成本优势。③出口退税政策能合理引导贸易产业结构由低技能向高技能转变,有效促进产业优化升级,减少环境污染。同时,文章通过证伪实验与改变窗口方法进行进一步检验。检验结果表明,我国2007年出口退税政策确实降低了"两高一资"型商品的出口额。因此,为了优化出口退税政策并提高环境保护作用,文章从设置差异化的出口退税政策,进一步细化退税税率与税目结构,完善相关配套措施等三个方面提出政策建议。     

Empirical analysis of carbon tariff’s effect on the export structure of China’s manufacturing industry and social welfare based on the GTAP model

In recent years, carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one. Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries, and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries, it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries. Concentrated on the manufacturing industry, which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China’s export structure, this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade. First, by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model, it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China’s manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China’s manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax. Furthermore, with the application of the GTAP model, it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China’s manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways, and then analyzes the influence on China’s manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well. The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China’s export price and export volume, and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China. However, the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff. In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China’s energy-intensive industries, such as chemical rubber products, oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry, whose export would be reduced, the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest, which will decrease the paper industry’s export ranging from 1.79% to 6.05%, whereas the other industries’ export will increase. Anyhow, it will promote China’s manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent. In addition, it will lead to a decrease in China’s welfare, with a decrease between $2.134 billion and $8.347 billion. Finally, this paper provides information on international coordination, export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China’s manufacturing industry.     

Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

Abstract

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%–6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%–1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6–73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encouraged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%-6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%-1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6-73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encour-aged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

Carbon Embodied in International Trade of China and Its Emission Responsibility

Carbon emissions embodied in international trade of China during 1997-2007 are accounted by input-output method based on Chinese input-output table and global trade analysis project database.It is revealed that carbon emissions embodied in imports and exports both increased during 1997-2007,but carbon emissions embodied in exports are greater than those embodied in imports,China is a net export nation in embodied carbon.The net exports of embodied carbon account for about 10.82% of the total carbon emissions in 1997,dropped to 7.15% in 2002,increased to13.13% in 2006,and slightly dropped to 12.64% in 2007.Low-end position of international industry division is an objective factor of being a net exporter of embodied carbon for China,and usage of a large amount of obsolete energy-using equipments wasted much energy and increased carbon emissions embodied in exports.Importers should take more responsibilities for carbon emissions embodied in trade,and China should take a certain responsibility for unreasonable energy dissipations too.     

Carbon emissions of china’s industrial sectors based on input–output analysis

This study uses an input–output model presenting the embodied carbon emission in the import–export procedure, as well as the responsibility allocation between China’s 35 sectors and 7 main trade partners from 1995 to 2011. Results indicate that the amount of carbon emissions in China’s industrial sectors is immense and that the industrial sectors are in serious imbalance. Such imbalance exists mainly in textiles, basic and fabricated metal, electrical and optical equipment, and machinery, among others. Based on the consumer-responsibility principle, the responsibility of 29 departments is reduced. Correspondingly, foreign sectors become more responsible. America, as China’s largest trading partner, should account for most of the total responsibility, followed by developed countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Germany.     

An Interpretation of the Influential Power of China Development

Through the analysis on China’s economic development, utilization of resource environment and soft power, a basic judgment was made of the influence of "China development". The overall influential power of China development on international community was misunderstood. What we see is the role of "China Factor" in different fields. In the process of economic globalization, what economic system of capitalist market has seen is "China’s cheap labor", "China’s loose economic system environment", "earlier abuse of unlimited resource environment", "China’s broad consumption market" and "demographic dividend". In global or Asian financial crisis, what other countries valued was China’s "foreign currency" accumulated over the years. In global governance or crisis management, what international community expected was "China’s obligations and responsibilities" without the right of speech, etc.. All these are the "passive" roles produced by "a single factor" in definite fields. The active and initiative role China will play in international community still needs time and the continuous efforts of several generations. China once was a big country that had significant influential power on the world, and China’s renaissance is a normal process of development of things. What excessive talks about its influential power reflect may be the lack of China’s influence.     

Carbon Embodied in International Trade of China and Its Emission Responsibility

Abstract

Carbon emissions embodied in international trade of China during 1997–2007 are accounted by input–output method based on Chinese input–output table and global trade analysis project database. It is revealed that carbon emissions embodied in imports and exports both increased during 1997–2007, but carbon emissions embodied in exports are greater than those embodied in imports, China is a net export nation in embodied carbon. The net exports of embodied carbon account for about 10.82% of the total carbon emissions in 1997, dropped to 7.15% in 2002, increased to 13.13% in 2006, and slightly dropped to 12.64% in 2007. Low-end position of international industry division is an objective factor of being a net exporter of embodied carbon for China, and usage of a large amount of obsolete energy-using equipments wasted much energy and increased carbon emissions embodied in exports. Importers should take more responsibilities for carbon emissions embodied in trade, and China should take a certain responsibility for unreasonable energy dissipations too.     

部分国家碳减排方案及其基本依据

二氧化碳是导致全球气候变暖最重要的温室气体．碳减排是缓解温室效应的一项重要措施．因而成为全球变化研究中的热点。在分析国际上主要利益集团中主要代表国家的碳减排方案的基础上．分析各个集团不同减排方案的基本依据。欧盟主张对灵活性机制的运用予以严格限制．强调发达国家应将主要精力放在本土的减排上．强烈反对允许以参与灵活机制来替代降低排放指标。伞形集团要求实施自由的排放权交易和灵活执行KP，主张对其应用不加任何限制．这是伞型国家的主要利益交合点。发展中国家共有的主要观点为：支持严格执行京都议定书．强调“共有但有区别的责任”的减排原则，认为发达国家应对温室气体排放负最大的责任并应率先减排。     

Low-carbon society creation and socio-economic structural transition in China

China is facing the problem of climate change, environment protection and energy security. Therefore, China has to create a low-carbon society to address them. The purpose of this paper is to make a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of China’s reality and transition to a low-carbon society. The research indicates that China’s transition to low-carbon society will inevitably meet many difficulties under the relatively backward situation of China’s socio-economic structure and technologies at the current stage. Therefore, China has to take concrete policies and countermeasures to promote its development gradually. In particular, China has to vigorously promote the innovation of low carbon system, technologies, subsidy and tax, financing and investment to lay groundwork for comprehensive development of low-carbon society.