大别山五针松种群结构及动态研究

大别山五针松(Pinus dabeshanensis)是大别山区特有种,最大种群分布于安徽省岳西县大王沟。采用空间序列代替时间的方法分析种群结构,编制种群特定时间生命表,绘制死亡率曲线和消失率曲线,并用4个生存函数进行种群的生存分析;同时结合谱分析方法,分析了大别山五针松种群数量的动态变化。结果表明:大别山五针松种群数量少,结构存在波动性。幼苗阶段个体较丰富,幼树阶段个体较少,种群趋于衰退。种群死亡率和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,在第5龄级出现峰值。4个生存函数曲线表明,大别山五针松具有前期快速减少、中期稳定和后期衰退的特点。谱分析显示,大别山五针松种群动态除受基波影响外,还具有明显的小周期波动,谐波A3和A4处的周期波动与个体生长有关。     

Growth rate,reproductive capacity,and survival rate of European water voles taken from natural populations at different phases of the population cycle

Growth rate, reproductive characteristics, and survival rate of European water voles taken from the population at the peak, decline, depression, and increase phases of population cycle were compared under standard vivarium conditions. In November to March, the growth rate of decline-phase males was higher, while that of decline-phase females was lower than in other animals. Decline-phase males were also more successful in reproduction than males taken at other phases. The survival rate of decline-phase females was reduced in the winter period.     

Modelling the propagation of effects of chronic exposure to ionising radiation from individuals to populations

This study evaluated the potential effect of ionising radiation on population growth using simple population models and parameter values derived from chronic exposure experiments in two invertebrate species with contrasting life-history strategies. In the earthworm Eisenia fetida, models predicted increasing delay in population growth with increasing gamma dose rate (up to 0.6 generation times at 11 mGy h(-1)). Population extinction was predicted at 43 mGy h(-1). In the microcrustacean Daphnia magna, models predicted increasing delay in population growth with increasing alpha dose rate (up to 0.8 generation times at 15.0 mGy h(-1)), only after two successive generations were exposed. The study examined population effects of changes in different individual endpoints (including survival, number of offspring produced and time to first reproduction). Models showed that the two species did not respond equally to equivalent levels of change, the fast growing daphnids being more susceptible to reduction in fecundity or delay in reproduction than the slow growing earthworms. This suggested that susceptibility of a population to ionising radiation cannot be considered independent of the species' life history.     

Population dynamics of Great Bittern (Botaurus stellaris) in the Netherlands: interaction effects of winter weather and habitat fragmentation

The increased variability in weather as a manifestation of climate change is expected to have negative impacts on population survival in wildlife species, because it will likely lead to increased variation in vital demographic rates (mortality and reproduction) in these populations. For the effective protection of biodiversity, adaptation measures are needed to compensate for the expected increase in weather variability and the negative interaction with habitat fragmentation. As a case study, we studied the fluctuations in Great Bittern numbers (Botaurus stellaris) from 28 monitoring plots scattered over the Netherlands to explore the interaction between the effect of weather and possible remediating effects of the landscape structure. Great Bittern habitat surrounding these plots differs with respect to area, quality, and degree of isolation of this habitat. In western Europe, Great Bitterns are found to be susceptible to continuous loss of suitable habitat due to vegetation succession and fragmentation. Moreover, year-to-year fluctuations in local Great Bittern populations can be caused by severe winter weather or other weather extremes. Our results show that severe winter weather has indeed a significant negative impact on Great Bittern population growth rates. Furthermore, we found that an increased carrying capacity and spatial cohesion (i.e. inverse of habitat fragmentation) contribute to an increase in mean growth rates over the years. As growth rates are higher in large, well-connected habitats, we argue that recovery from negative effects of, e.g. severe winters on Great Bittern population numbers is enhanced in these less-fragmented habitats. We derived generic adaptation measures for enhancing the recovery rate of populations of species in general: one should invest in more large, well-connected nature areas, not only to diminish the negative effects of habitat fragmentation on wildlife populations, but additionally to reduce the impacts of climatic variability.     

Experimental Study on the Effects of Population Density of Bloodsucking Mosquito (Aedes communis Deg.) Larvae on Their Biological Characteristics

Results of laboratory experiments on the effects of population density of Aedes communis Deg. larvae on their growth, survival, and sex ratio are presented. At the highest density, larval mortality increased by factors of 1.5 and 2.2, the duration of preimaginal development increased significantly, and the weight of pupae was 11 and 14.7% smaller than in low-density populations. The sex ratio was the same in both cases. The absolute numbers and the biomass of insects per cultivation vessel were greater in high-density populations.     

Effects of 17alpha-ethinylestradiol on the reproduction of the cladoceran species Ceriodaphnia reticulata and Sida crystallina

Single-species tests allow the assessment of chronical effects of endocrine disruptors on organisms under laboratory conditions. In the current study, three-generation tests with Ceriodaphnia reticulata and Sida crystallina were carried out to examine the influence of the synthetic hormone 17alpha-ethinylestradiol (EE) on the reproduction of these cladoceran species. For each species, six different concentrations (10-500 microg/l EE) and two controls were tested with eight replicates for a duration of 4 weeks. The test was initiated by transferring one neonate individual into a test vessel which was incubated under standardized conditions. Every 2 days, the medium was renewed and life history parameters such as survivorship of the adults and juveniles, clutch size, first appearance and number of produced offspring were investigated. Acute toxicity tests showed that C. reticulata (EC50 (24 h) 1814 microg/l) was more sensitive towards the substance compared to S. crystallina (EC50 (24 h) >4100 microg/l). The juvenile phase of S. crystallina was significantly shorter at concentrations above 100 microg/l EE. For C. reticulata, 17alpha-ethinylestradiol caused a higher mortality of the newly hatched juveniles at EE concentrations above 200 microg/l. No effects were found for mortality of adult animals, birth rate, number of juveniles per female and net reproduction rate of S. crystallina and C. reticulata. Thus, sublethal effects on parental generation exposed to EE lead to disturbances in reproduction and to affection of their offspring. Negative consequences for the population dynamic cannot be excluded, e.g. the decrease of a population.     

Comparative Analysis of Coat Color Morphs in a Polymorphic Population of the Northern Mole Vole

Long-term stationary observations (1985–2000) on a polymorphic population of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.) in Kurgan oblast were performed using the mark-recapture method. Original data were obtained on the abundance and structure of this population, which comprised individuals of three color morphs: black, brown, and intermediate (bicolor). Each morph proved to have its specific features with respect to abundance, age and sex composition, migration, birthrate, mortality, and life span. In general, this polymorphism contributes to population heterogeneity and the maintenance of population homeostasis.     

The Toad-Headed Agama Phrynocephalus guttatus (Reptilia: Agamidae): The Correlates of Survival in a Translocated Population in the Southwestern Kalmyk Republic

Observations of a translocated population of toad-headed agamas (Phrynocephalus guttatus) in the south of the Kalmyk Republic (1998–2001) have shown that seasonal differences in animal survival are manifested only in juveniles and the survival rate of juveniles is higher than that of adult individuals. A significant correlation between survival rate and sex is also characteristic only of juveniles: survival rate is higher in females than in males. In adult males, survival positively correlates with the level of activity; in juvenile males, with body size. In adult females, survival inversely correlates with body size and weight.     

Assessment of the reproductive capacity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> trees growing under conditions of chronic exposure to radionuclides of uranium and thorium series

The reproductive capacity of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) has been estimated in trees from the population growing in an area used to store tailings from uranium ore processing and radium production. Under such conditions, 12- to 15-year-old trees produce seeds of a quality inferior to that in areas with a normal background radiation level. As the weighted absorbed dose rate (at a weighting coefficient of 5) for generative organs increases from 0.002 ± 0.0003 to 0.344 ± 0.059 mGy/day, a proportional increase is observed in the proportion of empty seeds and the frequency of cytogenetic disturbances in the root meristem of seedlings, while the survival rate of seedlings decreases. The minimum absorbed dose rate leading to these changes in the pine population is 0.027 mGy/day, i.e., 12 times as high as the control value.     

长江靖江段沿岸似鳊生长及种群参数估算

2012年1月~2013年12月连续24个月在长江靖江段沿岸收集似鳊标本2 334尾,采用基于体长频率数据的ELEFAN I技术估算长江近口段沿岸似鳊的生长参数与种群参数。结果表明:似鳊体长(L,cm)与体质量(W,g)幂函数关系为:W=0.0182×L~(2.948)(r=0.9823,n=2334)。Von Bertalanffy生长方程描述的似鳊生长参数为:极限体长(L_∞)=19.25 cm,生长系数(K)=0.2/a,理论生长起点年龄(t_0)为-1.59 a,体质量的生长拐点年龄为3.55 a。采用Pauly的经验公式估算似鳊自然死亡系数(M)为0.556/a。由长度变换渔获曲线法估算出的似鳊总死亡系数(Z)为1.638/a,捕捞死亡系数(F)和开发率(E)分别为1.082/a和0.66/a。2012~2013年长江靖江段沿岸似鳊年均资源重量和资源数量分别为120.59 t和947.4万尾。经相关估算参数和相对单位补充渔获量分析得出,当前长江靖江段沿岸似鳊已处于过度捕捞状态。建议将沿岸水域禁渔期延长至9月(即4~9月),以实现似鳊资源的恢复和可持续发展。     

生态安全评价研究述评

随着人口的快速增长以及人类工农业活动的加剧，生态环境不断受到人类活动的干扰和损害，生态安全问题日益突出，引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。综述了国内外对生态安全内涵、生态安全评价的机理、生态安全评价方法的研究现状，对生态安全评价的发展趋势和研究方向进行了分析     

Energy and immune parameters of northern red-backed voles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clethrionomys rutilus</Emphasis>) at different population densities in the Kolyma River basin

Several parameters of energy and immune homeostasis in immature red-backed voles at different phases of the population cycle have been evaluated and compared over three cycles (2002–2009). It has been found that a specific morphophysiological type of population is characteristic of each phase of the cycle. The values of all physiological parameters recorded at high and low population densities significantly differ from each other, with their values being usually intermediate at a medium density. The level of most energy and immune parameters at the phase of population peak corresponds to that observed under stress. Supposedly, stress contributes to suppression of reproduction and increased mortality of the voles.     

Problems of Population Dynamics of the White-Eyed Pochard (Aythya nyrocaGuld., 1770) in the Eastern Sea of Azov Region

The long-term population dynamics of the white-eyed pochard (Aythya nyroca) in the eastern Sea of Azov region was analyzed. It was found that the local population of this species tends to decrease in size. Clutch size, egg size, reproductive behavior, intraspecific clutches, embryonic mortality, and hatching success in this population were studied. The contents of PCDD and PCDF in the eggs of waterfowl were estimated. The eggs of white-eyed pochard, compared to other waterfowl, proved to contain abnormally high concentrations of xenobiotics. Possible causes of A. nyrocapopulation decline, including the impact of superecotoxicants, are discussed.     

What are distributed lag models of particulate matter air pollution estimating when there are populations of frail individuals?

The three-state (healthy, frail, and dead) population model is commonly used in time-series investigations of mortality displacement and particulate matter air pollution (PM). In this paper, the author proposes a new population model, called the mixture population model, that by allowing PM to have differential effects on individuals in the population, extends the population models currently used in investigations of mortality displacement. Using this new model, the properties of distributed lag models (DLM) of PM are investigated. In particular, the author derives a relationship between the parameters of the proposed population model and the estimates obtained from a DLM fitted to mortality arising from the model. This relationship provides insight into the interrelationships between the size of the frail population, the number of lags of PM included in a DLM and the proportion of the effect of PM on the healthy population that is estimable. The relationship will guide and contextualize future investigations by providing researchers with the knowledge to assess the consequences of the number of lags of PM included in a DLM in terms of what they can plausibly infer about the effect of PM on mortality based on this choice of lag.     

Effect of toxic pollution on fish populations and mechanisms for maintaining population size

The effect of pollution on fish populations has been analyzed. It has been demonstrated that the strategy of the fish life cycle changes in the direction corresponding to r-selection. Smaller individuals that mature at an earlier age and are preadapted to energy allocation for maintaining a higher metabolic rate and activating detoxification gain a survival advantage under toxic conditions. If young females whose gametogenesis is within the normal range join the spawning stock, the population size is successfully maintained but its parameters and gene pool are changed.     

Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes

Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992–2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks.     

基于GIS与栅格数据的安徽省人居环境自然适宜性测评

科学度量人居环境自然背景的适宜性，有助于合理引导人口分布与流动，促进区域人口、资源环境协调发展。运用GIS技术，以250 m×250 m栅格为基本单元，选取气候、地形、水文、地被、自然灾害等因子，构建人居环境自然适宜性评价模型，定量测评安徽省人居环境自然适宜程度，剖析各类型区的适宜性和限制性。研究表明：安徽省人居环境指数介于33.64～74.58之间，人居环境自然适宜性总体较好，绝大部分地区适宜人类居住，适宜性在空间上大体呈现南高北低的态势，与现有人口分布格局相反。一般适宜区面积最广，占安徽省总面积的46.08%；比较适宜区次之，占31.29%；高度适宜区占22.54%；临界适宜区面积最小，仅占0.08%。安徽省近61.16%的人口分布在一般适宜区，高度适宜区与比较适宜区人口所占比例不足40%，临界适宜区人口极为稀少。地形起伏度和水文指数是造成全省人居环境自然适宜性分异的主要因子，测评结果较为客观地反映了安徽省人居环境的自然本底。全省人口生存与发展的空间较大，人口流动与集聚的适宜范围较广。 关键词： 人居环境；自然适宜性；栅格；GIS；安徽省     

长江口溯河鳗苗开发率估算

利用长江口南支上段东风西沙调查站位(121°15′45′′E;31°40′18′′N)2015年度鳗苗捕捞数据,通过CPUE波动趋势分析,确定当年日本鳗鲡鳗苗溯河汛期特征;进而采用Leslie和Delury两种方法估算东风西沙站位鳗苗资源指标。结果显示,2015年度东风西沙站位出现6个明显的鳗苗补充汛期,两种方法估算的汛期波动规律一致。各汛期捕捞持续时间5~27 d,平均为10.17 d。Leslie法估算的各汛期捕捞开发率43.38%~96.30%,平均77.14%;Delury法估算结果为43.36%~105.37%,平均81.43%;均为较高水平。高开发率表明东风西沙水域樯张网作业方式致使溯河迁移鳗苗处于高度开发状态,减少溯河鳗苗数量,影响长江流域成鳗资源。Leslie法估算日捕捞死亡系数和日捕捞死亡率平均值分别为0.23和20.02%,均分别低于De Lury法估算平均值0.27和22.79%;捕捞死亡系数将为采用年渔获量估算鳗苗资源量提供基础数据。     

The Outcome of Northern Fur Seal Harvesting: The Results of Calibration of Mathematical Models Based on Observation Data (the Example of Tyulenii Island Population)

Tendencies in the dynamics of harvested northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population on the Tyulenii Island have been analyzed in detail. The results show that retardation of reproduction (decrease in the numbers of pups) and decline in the survival of young females (up to 3 years of age) by the late 1980s resulted in a reduction of the total number of females and a significant increase in the proportion of older females. This tendency changed during the later observation period (after 1988–1989) due to increase in the survival of young females: the female population has gradually recovered, with the proportion of young females increasing at the expense of old females (aged over 10 years). The age composition of males has also changed: the proportion of young animals has decreased, while that of large mature males (bulls) has increased. Moreover, the number of bulls continues to increase and has already exceeded the level that formerly provided for the well-being of the population. This, a paradoxical situation has arisen: the numbers of females and bulls are increasing, whereas pup production remains at a low level.

     

Cumulative health risk assessment of 17 perfluoroalkylated and polyfluoroalkylated substances (PFASs) in the Swedish population

Humans are simultaneously exposed to a multitude of chemicals. Human health risk assessment of chemicals is, however, normally performed on single substances, which may underestimate the total risk, thus bringing a need for reliable methods to assess the risk of combined exposure to multiple chemicals. Per- and polyfluoroalkylated substances (PFASs) is a large group of chemicals that has emerged as global environmental contaminants. In the Swedish population, 17 PFASs have been measured, of which the vast majority lacks human health risk assessment information. The objective of this study was to for the first time perform a cumulative health risk assessment of the 17 PFASs measured in the Swedish population, individually and in combination, using the Hazard Index (HI) approach. Swedish biomonitoring data (blood/serum concentrations of PFASs) were used and two study populations identified: 1) the general population exposed indirectly via the environment and 2) occupationally exposed professional ski waxers. Hazard data used were publicly available toxicity data for hepatotoxicity and reproductive toxicity as well as other more sensitive toxic effects. The results showed that PFASs concentrations were in the low ng/ml serum range in the general population, reaching high ng/ml and low μg/ml serum concentrations in the occupationally exposed. For those congeners lacking toxicity data with regard to hepatotoxicity and reproductive toxicity read-across extrapolations was performed. Other effects at lower dose levels were observed for some well-studied congeners. The risk characterization showed no concern for hepatotoxicity or reproductive toxicity in the general population except in a subpopulation eating PFOS-contaminated fish, illustrating that high local exposure may be of concern. For the occupationally exposed there was concern for hepatotoxicity by PFOA and all congeners in combination as well as for reproductive toxicity by all congeners in combination, thus a need for reduced exposure was identified. Concern for immunotoxicity by PFOS and for disrupted mammary gland development by PFOA was identified in both study populations as well as a need of additional toxicological data for many PFAS congeners with respect to all assessed endpoints.