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1.
Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
The current world population is 6 billion people. Even if we adopted a worldwide policy resulting in only 2.1 children born per couple, more than 60 years would pass before the world population stabilized at approximately 12 billion. The reason stabilization would take more than 60 years is the population momentum – the young age distribution – of the world population. Natural resources are already severely limited, and there is emerging evidence that natural forces already starting to control human population numbers through malnutrition and other severe diseases. At present, more than 3 billion people worldwide are malnourished; grain production per capita has been declining since 1983; irrigation per capita has declined 12% during the past decade; cropland per capita has declined 20% during the past decade; fish production per capita has declined 7% during the past decade; per capita fertilizer supplies essential for food production have declined 23% during the past decade; loss of food to pests has not decreased below 50% since 1990; and pollution of water, air, and land has increased, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of humans suffering from serious, pollution-related diseases. Clearly, human numbers cannot continue to increase.  相似文献   

2.
The very significant impact of European legislation (Directive 91/414/EEC) on the authorization of plant protection products is reviewed herein, which has resulted in withdrawal of 704 active substances (AS) out of 889 assessed so far. The list of currently approved 276 AS includes 194 AS “existing” in the market before 1993 and 82 “new” AS introduced during the last 15 years. Results of toxicity characterization of the approved AS are also summarized, utilizing several well-known databases. Although significant data gaps exist for a rather large part of the approved AS, it is found that 84 AS are positive for at least one health effect (after chronic and/or acute exposure) including carcinogenicity, reproductive and neuro-developmental disorders, as well as endocrine disruption. The toxicity characterization results of this study are compared to those of recent assessments by other organizations (KemI, the Swedish Chemicals Agency, and the Pesticide Safety Directorate of the UK), where interpretation and use is made of AS “cut-off” criteria foreseen in new EU legislation. These studies report a comparatively smaller AS number with positive toxicity characterization. The possibility of some additional AS withdrawal in the near future, combined with the rather small rate of new AS introduction (approx. 5 per year) suggest that the list of approved AS over the next 10–15 years may not change very drastically. Consideration of the above trends is necessary and instructive in evaluating results of existing health impact assessment (HIA) studies, as well as in planning new ones. Due to the very drastic change in the number and type of marketed AS, that took place within the past 8–9 years, it is suggested that new HIA studies (based on epidemiological data after year 2000) should focus on a rather short time frame and, therefore, on appropriate cohort groups, e.g. young children. For the same reason, results of epidemiological studies of the past (involving banned AS) should be carefully interpreted and used with caution.  相似文献   

3.
The correlation between climatic changes and the numbers of trees in the generations of Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.) in subgoltsy tree stands of the Southern Urals was analyzed over the past 200 years. The results showed that the most abundant generations appeared in 1809–1816, 1821–1827, 1839–1845, 1850–1867, 1875–1887, 1891–1896, 1900–1904, 1911–1918, 1923–1932, 1944–1952, 1958–1966, and 1975–1995. Their formation proved to be related to the improvement of thermal conditions of the warm season during the five to seven years before and after the emergence of trees and conditions of the cold season in the year of their emergence, as well as to the periods of increased snow depth in late April in the years 27–32 of tree growth.  相似文献   

4.
Effects of acute γ-irradiation were investigated in the aquatic microcosm consisting of green algae (Chlorella sp. and Scenedesmus sp.) and a blue–green alga (Tolypothrix sp.) as producers; an oligochaete (Aeolosoma hemprichi), rotifers (Lecane sp. and Philodina sp.) and a ciliate protozoan (Cyclidium glaucoma) as consumers; and more than four species of bacteria as decomposers. At 100 Gy, populations were not affected in any taxa. At 500–5000 Gy, one or three taxa died out and populations of two or three taxa decreased over time, while that of Tolypothrix sp. increased. This Tolypothrix sp. increase was likely an indirect effect due to interspecies interactions. The principal response curve analysis revealed that the main trend of the effects was a dose-dependent population decrease. For a better understanding of radiation risks in aquatic microbial communities, effect doses of γ-rays compared with copper, herbicides and detergents were evaluated using the radiochemoecological conceptual model and the effect index for microcosm.  相似文献   

5.
This paper looks at the rainfall and streamflow patterns over two distinct time periods, i.e., 1950–1970 and 1971–1991 within the two most prominent catchments in the Volta river system – White Volta and the Oti basins. The first period (1950–1970) represents relatively vegetated catchments and low population whilst the latter (1971–1990) represents intense land use practices resulting from increased population that have severely degraded the environment. These two catchments are among the most significant contributors to the Volta lake. The Volta lake, which was formed between 1962 and 1966 in Ghana and created primarily for hydroelectric power generation, will probably be one of the greatest man-made lakes for a long time. It produces 912MW of electricity at its maximum operating capacity. Recently, there have been declines in the lake levels resulting most probably from inadequate rainfall and/or runoff from the river catchments that feed the lake. Comparisons of runoffs for the two time periods show reductions in mean streamflows of 32.5% at Saboba on the Oti and 23.1% at Nawuni on the White Volta.  相似文献   

6.
The continuous growth of world population and the intensification of urbanization process create a challenge to environment quality and sustainable development around the world. In this paper I tried to conduct a forecast analysis of near-future urbanization related population growth worldwide, based on recent demographic trends. Such an analysis can provide important insights into the prospects for changes in the size and composition of world population and in urbanization process. Optimal polynomial functions were used to fit historical trajectories of population dynamics, and the detailed forecasts of the population mainly over the period 2010–2030 were conducted and analyzed. If the past pattern continues, world total population would increase to 7.94–8.33 billion in 2030 and the annual growth is expected to continually decline in the forecast period. Global total population would stop increasing during the period 2050–2060 and would not exceed 9.5 billion in the future. The total population of Africa, Asia, Oceania, South America, North & Central America would separately increase to 1.35–1.41, 4.86–5.65, 0.04–0.05, 0.44–0.45, and 0.71–0.72 billion in 2030. Europe’s total population is forecast to decline to 0.64–0.67 billion in 2030. World’s rural population is expected to grow to the maximum during the period 2015–2020 and would greatly decline after that period. Global rural population would reach 3.12–3.41 billion in 2030. Rural population in Asia and Africa is estimated to increase and achieve the maximum around 2025 and decline thereafter. For other regions, the rural population would continually decline in the forecast period. Urban population in the world would continually grow and reach 4.72–5.00 billion in 2030, an increase of 48.6–57.8%. However the annual growth of urban population is expected to increase to the maximum (6.86 million/year) during the period 2020–2025 and then decline in the following years. Urban population is projected to continually grow in all regions excepting Europe. Europe’s urban population is expected to decline in the period 2010–2030. Urbanization process worldwide, represented by the ratio urban population versus total population (RUT) and the ratio rural population versus urban population, is expected to continue during the period 2010–2030. The RUT of the world is projected to reach 0.5 before 2010 and would continue to increase in the forecast period. Global RUT is estimated to reach 0.56 in 2030. However, the regional patterns of urbanization process would be diverse. Europe’s RUT is estimated to continually decline in the forecast period and reach 0.68 in 2030. The RUT for Africa and Caribbean would continually increase before 2030, while the RUTs for Asia and South America are estimated to achieve their maximums around 2025 and decline in the following years. Oceania and North & Central America would thoroughly realize urbanization (≈1) during the periods 2020–2025 and 2025–2030. The expansion of world population and urbanization will continually exert a stronger stress to environment quality and sustainable development in a near future. However we may expect this situation would start to change from mid-21st century after total population has achieved its maximum. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.  相似文献   

7.
Within the emerging concept of industrial ecology (IE) that belongs to the research and practical field of sustainable development (SD), the natural ecosystem evolution over time has been described as a metaphor that presents systems of type I, type II and type III ecology. Type I describes a situation when there was little life on earth and plenty of resources. In type II, the ecosystem starts to develop material cycles and energy cascades between organisms and species due to increasing amount of life and emerging scarcity of resources. In type III, the mature ecosystem stage, the system actors have developed nearly completely cyclic flows of matter, energy cascades and diverse interdependencies between them. This paper uses the metaphor in the three systems to develop practical models of type I, II and III industrial ecosystems for an economic system of heating energy and its evolution over time. First, the physical flows of matter and energy are described by using two contrasting case system characteristics, 'throughput' and 'roundput'. Throughput means linear material and energy flows. Roundput means material cycles, energy cascades and sustainable use of renewables, i.e., ecosystem type III. Second, the more structural and organisational features are considered with the characteristic of 'diversity' meaning diversity in resources, human involvement and economic actors and technology used. The case system development over time shown with our practical model of type I–III is radically different from the ecosystem evolution as described in the literature on the industrial ecosystem metaphor of type I–III. This conclusion as a research result, however, is tentative, because of the fuzzy and vague meaning assigned to a metaphor and its confusion with a practical model of industrial development in the industrial ecology literature.  相似文献   

8.
The identification of characteristics of noise-susceptible (S) or noise-resistant (R) individuals is necessary for the development of noise-susceptibility risk profiles. Fifty-six naval aviators, categorized as having either incurred a hearing loss, i.e., hearing threshold levels (HTLs) > 40 dB at 4–8 kHz or retained normal hearing, i.e., HTLs ≤ 25 dB at 125 Hz-8 kHz, after thousands of flight hours were compared along several auditory and non-auditory dimensions. A number of variables occurred differentially in the two groups: Minimal Auditory Intensity Differential (MAID) scores at 2 kHz (p < 0.01) and 4 kHz (p < 0.001); iris pigmentation (blue eyes were over-represented in the S group; p < 0.05); systolic blood pressure (sitting; S group was higher; p < 0.05); calcium, albumin, and LDH levels (higher in the R group; p < 0.05); and present tobacco usage (more S aviators were currently smokers; p < 0.05). The S population also tended (p < 0.10) to exhibit elevated cholesterol and triglyceride levels as well as higher contralateral acoustic reflexes, and to have fewer individuals who had never smoked. Although no classic profile of the S or R individual definitely emerged, results suggested that at least one measurement device (MAID test) may serve as an “early warning” of imminent noise-induced damage. Further research, however, is required to test this possibility.  相似文献   

9.
A dynamic linear compartment model of the global iodine cycle has been developed for the purpose of estimating radiological impacts on the world population from releases of 129I to the environment. The time-invariant fractional transfer rates, which describe the transport of 129I between environmental compartments comprising the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and terrestrial biosphere, are estimated from an analysis of available data on concentrations for naturally occurring stable iodine and data on the global hydrologic cycle. The global radiological impacts on man from a given release of 129I are estimated from the calculated compartment inventories as a function of time and models for the intake of iodine by a reference adult. For a constrant population of 12.2 billion, the estimated worldwide complete population dose commitment to the thyroid is 76 man-Sv/GBq (2.8 × 105 man-rem/Ci) released. Estimated values of the incomplete population dose commitment at various times after a global-scale release to the atmosphere are also presented.  相似文献   

10.
As a guide to the possible effects of a CO2-induced warming on the cryosphere, we review the effects of three warm periods in the past, and out theoretical understanding of fluctuations in mountain glaciers, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, ground ice, sea ice and seasonal snow cover. Between 1890 and 1940 A.D. the glaciated area in Switzerland was reduced by over 25%. In the Hypsithermal, at about 6000 BP, ground ice in Eurasia retreated northward by several hundred kilometres. In the interglacial Stage 5e, at about 120 000 BP, global sea-level rose by over 6 m. Fluctuations of mountain glaciers depend on mesoscale “weather” and on their mechanical response to it. Any melting of the Greenland ice sheet is likely to be slow in human terms. The West Antarctic ice sheet (its base below sea-level) is susceptible to an ungrounding, and such an event may have been the cause of the sea-level rise above. The East Antarctic ice sheet is susceptible to mechanical “surges”, which might be triggered by a warming at its margin. Both an ungrounding and a surge might occupy less than 100 yr, and are potetially the most important ice changes in human terms. Modelling studies suggest that a 5°C warming would remove the Arctic pack ice in summer, and this may be the most significant effect for further climatic change.  相似文献   

11.
Comparison of the current approaches to human ecology shows a contradiction between certain views on the subject and the methodology of its analysis. The notion of human ecology as the ecology of the species Homo sapiens is being developed in terms of modern general ecology and should be considered at all organizational levels, from individual to global. Material and spiritual cultures, which are the main adaptations of human beings represent a continuation of the general trend of living matter towards progressive evolution and are accompanied by an increase in orderliness related to the intensification of energy consumption. This superindividual adaptation determines the human capacity for occupying new ecological niches without changing the hereditary background. Therefore, consideration of Homo sapiens at the superorganismal level is of special importance in human ecology. Analysis of this issue shows that the functional patterns of systems belonging to this level have certain characteristics in common with those of the population systems of other species.__________Translated from Ekologiya, No. 3, 2005, pp. 163–170.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Kryazhimskii, Bolshakov.  相似文献   

12.
In this paper we develop a novel, comprehensive method for estimating the global human carrying capacity in reference to food production factors and levels of food consumption. Other important interrelated dimensions of carrying capacity such as energy, non-renewable resources, and ecology are not considered here and offer opportunities for future work. Use of grain production (rain-fed/irrigated), animal product production (grazing/factory farm), diet pattern (grain/animal products), and a novel water accounting method (demand/supply) based on actual water consumption and not on withdrawal, help resolve uncertainties to find better estimates. Current Western European food consumption is used as a goal for the entire world. Then the carrying capacity lies in the range of 4.5–4.7 billion but requiring agricultural water use increase by 450–530% to 4725–5480 km3, the range based on different estimates of available water. The cost of trapping and conveying such water, will run 4.5–13.5 trillion over 50 years requiring an annual spending increase of 150–400%, straining the developing world where most of the population increase is expected. We reconfirm estimates in the literature using a dynamic model. ‘Corner scenarios’ with extreme optimistic assumptions were analyzed using the reasoning support software system GLOBESIGHT. With a hypothetical scenario with a mainly vegetarian diet (grazing only with 5% animal product), the carrying capacity can be as high as 14 billion. Ecological deterioration that surely accompanies such a population increase would negatively impact sustainable population. Using our approach the impact of ecological damage could be studied. Inter- and intra-regional inequities are other considerations that need to be studied.  相似文献   

13.
Observations of a translocated population of toad-headed agamas (Phrynocephalus guttatus) in the south of the Kalmyk Republic (1998–2001) have shown that seasonal differences in animal survival are manifested only in juveniles and the survival rate of juveniles is higher than that of adult individuals. A significant correlation between survival rate and sex is also characteristic only of juveniles: survival rate is higher in females than in males. In adult males, survival positively correlates with the level of activity; in juvenile males, with body size. In adult females, survival inversely correlates with body size and weight.  相似文献   

14.
The air quality in a newly built preschool was investigated in a longitudinal study. Typical air contaminants emanating from building materials were determined, their variation over time (0–18 months) was measured, and the influence of the ventilation system (81%–91% recirculation of return air) on contaminant concentrations was studied. Volatile organic compounds were sampled by adsorption on porous polymer, analysed by a GC/FID system, and identified by MS. A spatial build-up in concentration (ppb or μg/m3 levels) is evident for all the organic compounds, as well as for CO2, from the outdoor air, through the ventilation system, and through the rooms to the exhaust air. The longitudinal comparison over time shows that all the organic compounds decline in concentration mainly within the first 6 months of occupancy: 1-butanol 4–14 times, toluene and pentanal + hexanal 2–4 times, while formaldehyde remained at a constant low level of 90 ppb (110 μg/m3). It is difficult to believe that the problems of poor air quality in 100 preschools in Stockholm are caused by the organic compounds alone unless interactions occur. A preschool building needs to be gassed off during the first 6 months after its construction with no recirculation of return air allowed (outdoor air rate approx 4–5 ach). During at least 1–2 additional years, it is desired that the recirculation rate of return air is restricted, perhaps to 50%.  相似文献   

15.
Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.  相似文献   

16.
In this study, we investigate whether traditional swidden agriculture on nutrient-poor tropical soils can sustainably support a growing indigenous population within Manu National Park, Peru. Based on interviews with 50 Matsigenka farmers, as well as GPS mapping and field visits, we established the location and size of all 124 swidden gardens cultivated in 2000 and 2001. Using a GIS-based soil map of Manu Park, we identify the total extent of potential arable land (1) throughout the park zones currently available for Matsigenka habitation, and (2) within the vicinity of the two study communities. Taking into account current per capita garden size, cultivation and fallow practices, we calculate the maximum human carrying capacity of swidden agriculture for (1) all available park zones and (2) the immediate vicinity of the two current communities. Even given the second, highly limited scenario, the sustainable human carrying capacity is estimated to be 2,138 individuals, which is far higher than the current population of about 420 people. Thus, arable land does not appear to be a limiting factor for the growth of the indigenous population in Manu Park at the current time. Other possible limiting factors for population growth are identified and discussed. We conclude that a conservation policy of population stabilization around the current settlements is viable in that it will not result in reduced resource availability over the next few decades, and that the challenge is to identify and mitigate the forces causing population fissioning and spread. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.  相似文献   

17.
Human breast milk samples collected in 2007–2008 from four countries, Vietnam (Hanoi), China (Beijing), Korea (Seoul) and Japan (Sendai, Kyoto and Takayama), were analyzed for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs), chlordane-related compounds (CHLs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Comparing with previous surveys, the present study indicates that the DDTs in breast milk from China and Vietnam had gradually decreased during the last decade, but were still 5–10 times higher than those in other nations. The ratios of p,p′-DDE/p,p′-DDT and o,p′-DDT/p,p′-DDT were higher in Beijing than in the other countries, suggesting that there is less fresh intake of commercial DDT products and a possible exposure to dicofol in China. CHL and PCB levels were relatively higher in mothers from Japan, whereas β-HCH and HCB were more common in Chinese women. In Japan, it is suspected that mothers in the urban/coastal area (Sendai) were more continuously exposed to organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) than mothers in the rural/inland area (Takayama). In addition, OCP levels in primiparae were significantly higher than those in multiparae from Japan and Korea. These indicate that both parity and regional factors are major determinants of the levels of OCPs and PCBs in human milk. On the other hand, higher concentrations of PBDEs were observed in mothers' milk from Korea. The congener was dominated by BDE-47 (43–54%), followed by BDE-153 (23–33%) in all regions except for Beijing where BDE-28 (23%) was relatively abundant. In Japanese breast milk, regional and parity-dependent distributions were not observed for PBDEs. Among PBDE congeners, age-dependency was observed for BDE-153, which was negatively correlated (p < 0.05) to the age of mothers in Kyoto (17 participants were housewives), while it increased with age in Sendai (10 participants were clerks). No such correlation was seen for BDE-47, indicating that BDE-47 was ingested and assimilated via different kinetics or routes from BDE-153 in Japan.  相似文献   

18.
The concentrations of Fe, Mn, Zn, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Cd, and Ag were determined in soft tissue and shell material of mussel Mytilus edulis collected in the winter season from five coastal sites in the northeast of England. The trace metal levels observed were significantly high, particularly at locations affected by past coal mining activities (Blackhall) and present industrial sources (Middleton). The mussels from the chosen control site (Holy Island), a shellfish-designated area, were particularly enriched in Cu and Ag. The metal pollution index for the Bran Sands site, a heavily industrialised area on the Tees Estuary, was relatively low. At four sites out of five, the levels of Fe and Cu were negatively correlated with mussel size. No significant correlation with size was found for the other metals. With few exceptions, the elements Fe, Zn, and Mn accumulated preferentially in the soft tissue, whereas Pb, Cd, Cr, Ag, and Ni were more abundant in the hard part of the mussels. The Ag values in shell material were remarkably similar (about 6 mg kg−1 – 7 mg kg−1, dry wt) at all sites studied. In general, the data show that the mussels from the coastline studied accumulate metal concentrations comparable to or higher than the most contaminated sites reported in the literature.  相似文献   

19.
The expansion of so-called evergreen conifers (EGCs), including Siberian stone pine, spruce, and fir, along the transect oriented from the boundary of the larch-dominated zone (LDZ; mixed forests of the Yenisei Ridge) to its center has been studied. The normalized dispersal coefficient calculated as K i = (n i N i )/(n i + N i ), where n i and N i are the relative numbers of the ith species in the undergrowth and the upper layer, respectively, serves as an indicator of the expansion. It has been found that the K i values for EGCs (and birch) are higher than the K i of larch even in the zone absolutely dominated by larch, where the relative numbers of EGCs in the upper layer is less than 1%. The EGC undergrowth has mainly been formed during the past 20–30 years, which is correlated with the trend of summer temperatures The spread of EGCs in the LDZ depends on the frequency of forest fires. The decrease in the time intervals between fires in the 20th century to 65 years (versus 100 years in the 19th century) may have prevented the expansion of competing species in the LDZ. The results obtained indicate that EGCs and birch penetrate into the zone traditionally dominated by larch, which is related to climatic changes during the past three decades. At the same time, tree stand density is increasing in the forest-tundra ecotone, and larch is spreading further into the tundra zone.__________Translated from Ekologiya, No. 3, 2005, pp. 186–193.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Kharuk, Dvinskaya, Ranson, Im.  相似文献   

20.
A small part of the scientific community is seeking hard to enhance the contribution of science, knowledge and capacity building to environmentally sustainable and socially fair human development around the world. Many researchers over the globe share the same commitment – anchored in concerns for the human condition. They believe that science and research can and have influenced sustainability. Therefore their main goals are to seek and build up knowledge, know-how and capacity that might help to feed, nurture, house, educate and employ the world's growing human population while conserving its basic life support systems and biodiversity. They undertake projects, that are essentially integrative, and they try to connect the natural, social and engineering sciences, environment and development of communities, multiple stakeholders, geographic and temporal scales. More generally, scientists engaged in sustainable development are bridging the worlds of knowledge and action. This pro-active, heavily ethics- and wisdom-based "science for sustainability" can be seen as the conclusion of all dialogues and discussions amongst scientists at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) 2002 in Johannesburg. The "Plan of Implementation" after WSSD will be based on political will, practical steps and partnerships with time-bound actions. Several "means of implementation" are going to be proofed and initiated: finance, trade, transfer of environmentally sound technology, and, last but not least, science and capacity building.Some characteristics of working scientific sustainability initiatives are that they are regional, place-based and solution-oriented. They are focusing at intermediate scales where multiple stresses intersect, where complexity is manageable, where integration is possible, where innovation happens, and where significant transitions toward sustainability can start bottom-up. And they have a fundamental character, addressing the unity of the nature – society system, asking how that interactive system is evolving and how it can be consciously, if imperfectly, steered through the reflective mobilization and application of appropriate knowledge and know-how. The aims of such sustainability-building initiatives conducted by researchers are: first to make significant progress toward expanding and deepening the research agenda of science and knowledge-building for sustainability; secondly to strengthen the infrastructure and capacity for conducting and applying science, research and technology for sustainability – everywhere in the world where it is needed; and thirdly, to connect science, policy and decision-making more effectively in pursuit of a faster transition towards real sustainable development. The overall characteristic is, that sustainability initiatives are mainly open-ended networks and dialogues for the better future. A world society that tries to turn towards sustainable development has to work hard to refine their clumsy technologies, in "earthing" their responsibility to all creatures and resources, in establishing democratic systems in peace and by heeding human rights, in building up global solidarity through all mankind and in commit themselves to a better life for the next generations.  相似文献   

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