Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050

Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different ‘protein futures’. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today’s species mix; intensive efficient poultry–dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture–dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on ‘ecological leftovers’ (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a ‘plant-based eating’ scenario. For each scenario, ‘projected diet’ and ‘healthy diet’ variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14–86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO₂ in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The ‘ecological leftover’ scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.     

Is pork trade good for China's greenhouse gas emissions?

China produces the largest amount of pork in the world, which emits the largest amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs). This paper calculates GHG emissions from China’s hog production at the provincial level using newly published emission factors. Empirical results show that GHG emissions from China’s hog production mainly respond to the scale intensity. Capital abundance and income contribute positively to GHG emissions from hog production. Pork trade increases GHG emissions from China’s hog production with a significantly direct effect, reduces GHG emissions through indirect technique effects.     

高炉渣资源化生产绿色建材的环境效益评估——基于生命周期的视角

高炉渣是钢铁厂高炉炼铁产生的矿渣,具有较高的资源化价值,可用于生产多种绿色建材产品。熔融高炉渣经水急冷后形成的粒化高炉矿渣,粉磨成矿渣微粉可作为水泥混合材和混凝土掺合料。以高炉渣资源化过程为研究对象,采用生命周期清单分析方法,并基于GaBi 4软件平台,对我国某建材企业综合利用高炉渣生产矿渣硅酸盐水泥和商品混凝土全过程的能源消耗、原材料消耗和温室气体排放进行了分析,进而从节能、降耗和碳减排三方面评估其环境效益。结果表明,与普通硅酸盐水泥相比,矿渣硅酸盐水泥可分别实现节约能源1 911 MJ/t(节能26%),降低原材料消耗1 158 kg/t(降耗27%),减少碳排放236 kg/t(碳减排26%);与复合硅酸盐水泥相比,矿渣硅酸盐水泥可实现节约能源352 MJ/t(节能6%),降低原材料消耗278 kg/t(降耗8%),减少碳排放47 kg/t(碳减排7%)。与不掺加矿粉的普通商品混凝土比较,掺矿粉的商品混凝土可实现节约能源97 MJ/m3(节能5%),降低原材料消耗7 kg/m3(降耗0.3%),减少碳排放12 kg/m3(碳减排5%)。高炉渣资源化生产矿渣硅酸盐水泥和商品混凝土具有明显的环境效益。     

Research on whole life cycle carbon emission model of typical buildings

Based on the theory of life cycle assessment (LCA), this article analyzes the influence factors on carbon emissions from residential buildings. In the article, the life cycle of residential buildings has been divided into five stages: building materials production period, construction period, operation and maintenance period, demolition period, and solid waste recycle and disposal period. Based on this definition, the authors provide a theoretical model to calculate carbon emissions of residential building life cycle. In particular, the factor of human activities was introduced in the calculation of carbon emissions from the buildings. Furthermore, the authors put forward a model for calculation with the unit of carbon emissions for per-capita living space.     

考虑能源、环境影响的住宅建筑节能CGE模型构建

中国承诺将于2030年左右使单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%—65%,排放总量达到峰值并争取尽早实现。我国目前的碳排放主要来自工业、交通运输业和建筑业,其中建筑业碳排放约40%,所占比重最大,而高达550亿m2的存量住宅能耗和排放是建筑业碳排放的主力。住宅建筑节能是关系到我国建筑业节能减排目标能否顺利实现的重要因素,是我国节能减排工作的重要领域。构建一个可用于衡量住宅建筑节能对资源环境及经济发展影响的可计算模型是推动住宅建筑节能工作的重要基础。本文尝试以CGE标准模型为基础,依次对住宅建筑生产模块、污染排放模块、节能住宅建筑模块、动态模块和环境福利模块进行详细构建说明。在四方面对标准模型进行扩展:第一,将生产要素扩展为资本、劳动和能源要素束,能源要素束被深化分解为清洁能源与非清洁能源束,然后再予深化细化;第二,依据差异的贸易伙伴将进出口细化为差异的国家和地区;第三,将建筑污染排放作为一个特殊部门,建立建筑污染排放模块,纳入到CGE模型中,并将污染要素纳入到效应函数中;第四,依据资本增长模型,建立动态模块。通过将住宅建筑节能作为变量扩展到标准CGE模型的方法,构建了住宅建筑节能CGE扩展模型。借助该扩展模型,可以研究非节能建筑约束、外部节能建筑与经济增长之间的内在关系,进而破解非节能建筑约束、外部节能建筑与住宅建筑节能快速发展之间难以协调的矛盾。在本文研究成果的基础上,可进一步建立相应的社会核算矩阵(SAM),并对各种函数的参数估计和敏感性检验进行实证分析。     

甲烷排放与应对气候变化国家战略探析

甲烷的全球变暖潜势是二氧化碳的72倍(20年水平),但其在大气中的寿命短于二氧化碳,可以作为优先减排对象。中国的甲烷排放十分突出,甲烷减排在应对气候变化国家战略中具有重要的基础性地位,然而在政策研究中,甲烷受到的关注程度远低于二氧化碳。本文基于甲烷排放研究的相关进展,首次系统性地论述了中国甲烷排放与应对气候变化国家战略之间的关系。主要结论是:甲烷排放的有效控制和减缓可以成为中国温室气体减排的重要组成部分,甲烷等温室气体的减排战略要用"系统减排"思路替代传统的"末端减排"思路;甲烷系统减排的策略和实施措施不仅需要重视主要排放部门(如煤炭开采与洗选业,农业)的直接末端减排,更需要突出强调建设活动、城市消费、资本投资和出口贸易等消费端的间接体现减排;在国际气候谈判中通过纳入甲烷排放,可以至少在五个方面丰富和支撑中国的国家立场,如从承诺"单位GDP二氧化碳减排"向承诺"单位GDP温室气体减排"转变。     

Exergy efficiency analysis of a refurbished dwelling: a case study in Ljubljana,Slovenia

Buildings contribute almost half of the world's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Energy and water consumption are some of the largest and fastest growing pressures on the global environment. The use of energy is mainly attributed to the heating and cooling of buildings. The type of materials used in the construction of buildings plays a significant role in the life-cycle emissions of each dwelling. Changing the material use in the construction of an existing building and adding insulation could have a major impact on energy use and the environment of the building in its entire life cycle. This paper investigates the amount of exergy savings and the decrease in CO₂ emissions resulting from the refurbishing of an existing building in Ljubljana. This study results from the growing awareness that in the choice of building materials, the designer must consider not only the requirements of the owner and occupier of the building, but also the resulting energy savings, the resource base and the effects of the manufacturing and processing of building materials on the environment. The exergy efficiency of the material use is calculated and the environmental impact assessment of energy and material use is accounted for.     

中国城市温室气体清单研究

介绍城市温室气体排放特征和国际城市温室气体清单研究进展,研究了全球城市化和城市CO2排放的强正相关性,以及中国城市清单方法研究起步较早但发展缓慢的特点。分析了城市温室气体清单相对国家清单的特征,即城市清单编制往往采用消费模式,区别于国家清单的生产模式;国际城市清单中往往包括了由于外调电和供暖产生的CO2排放,同时城市温室气体清单编制灵活性和针对性更强。针对我国城市温室气体清单研究的不足,提出了我国城市温室气体清单方法,强调中国城市采用尺度1+尺度2的范围,暂不考虑尺度3的范围,即生产+消费的混合模式,并且在城市市域温室气体排放研究的基础上,加强狭义城市温室气体排放水平的研究。选择北京市和纽约市,对比分析了两个城市CO2排放特征,结果显示,在确定的清单体系下,北京市和纽约市具有较好的可比性。纽约市的总排放量(尺度1+尺度2)略低于北京市排放量,人均排放量略高于北京市。     

Carbon Footprint Analysis for Baby Strollers

Abstract

The increasing awareness of climate change has led organizations to demand a standard procedure to measure and communicate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions linked to their products or services. The publicly available specification PAS 2050 has been developed in response to broad community and industry desire for a consistent method-carbon footprint for assessing the life cycle GHG emissions of goods and services. Specifically, this paper illustrates the implementation of carbon footprint for a baby stroller in accordance with PAS 2050. A fial value of 321 kg per one stroller including package was calculated. Moreover, the study led to identify raw materials production of the stroller as the main source of GHS emissions where efforts need to focus for emission reduction opportunities. This case study is hoped to be a starting point for organizations to benefit from the increasing application of carbon footprint assessment.     

Performance evaluation of solar photovoltaic electricity-generating systems: an Indian perspective

The present work seeks to assess the sustainability of different solar photovoltaic (SPV) electricity-generating systems based upon energy, environment and economics. The sustainability indicators evaluated for energy, environment and economics are electrical output, life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and life-cycle cost of electricity generated per kilowatt hour. The selected SPV-based electricity generation technologies for sustainability evaluation are amorphous, monocrystalline and polycrystalline at different locations and tilt angles across India. For SPV systems, most of the emissions are the result of electricity use during manufacturing. In these cases, an average grid mix for the region of manufacture is typically used to calculate energy use and emissions. Based upon these three indicators, a figure of merit (FM) has been proposed. The results proposed that polycrystalline gives the maximum electrical output, minimum GHG emission, minimum cost and maximum FM at a radiation level of 6 kWh/m²/day with latitude and tilt angle of 34° and 35°, respectively. This work will be helpful to users of solar energy, academicians, researchers and other concerned persons, in understanding the importance, severity and benefits obtained by the application and implementation of the SPV electricity-generating systems.     

Assessment of uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission profiles of livestock sectors in Africa,Latin America and Europe

The global animal food chain has a large contribution to the global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but its share and sources vary highly across the world. However, the assessment of GHG emissions from livestock production is subject to various uncertainties, which have not yet been well quantified at large spatial scale. We assessed the uncertainties in the relations between animal production (milk, meat, egg) and the CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions in Africa, Latin America and the European Union, using the MITERRA-Global model. The uncertainties in model inputs were derived from time series of statistical data, literature review or expert knowledge. These model inputs and parameters were further divided into nine groups based on type of data and affected greenhouse gas. The final model output uncertainty and the uncertainty contribution of each group of model inputs to the uncertainty were quantified using a Monte Carlo approach, taking into account their spatial and cross-correlation. GHG emissions and their uncertainties were determined per livestock sector, per product and per emission source category. Results show large variation in the GHG emissions and their uncertainties for different continents, livestock sectors products or source categories. The uncertainty of total GHG emissions from livestock sectors is higher in Africa and Latin America than in the European Union. The uncertainty of CH₄ emission is lower than that for N₂O and CO₂. Livestock parameters, CH₄ emission factors and N emission factors contribute most to the uncertainty in the total model output. The reliability of GHG emissions from livestock sectors is relatively high (low uncertainty) at continental level, but could be lower at country level.     

Recalculating GHG emissions saving of palm oil biodiesel

In 2010, the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) came into force in the EU and establishes a framework for achieving legally binding greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. Only sustainable biofuels can be counted towards Member State targets. The aim of this paper is to calculate realistic and transparent scenario-based CO₂-emission values for the GHG emissions savings of palm oil fuel compared with fossil fuel. Using the calculation scheme proposed by the RED, we derive a more realistic overall GHG emissions saving value for palm oil diesel by using current input and output data of biofuel production (e.g. in South-East Asia). We calculate different scenarios in which reliable data on the production conditions (and the regarding emission values during the production chain) of palm oil diesel are used. Our results indicate values for the GHG emissions savings potential of palm oil biodiesel not only above the 19 % default and 36 % typical value published in RED but also above the 35 % sustainable threshold. Our findings conclude the more accurate GHG emissions saving value for palm oil feedstock for electricity generation to be 52 %, and for transportation biodiesel between 38.5 and 41 %, depending on the fossil fuel comparator. Our results confirm the findings by other studies and challenge the official typical and default values published in RED. As a result, the reliability of the Directive to support the EU’s low-carbon ambitions is being undermined, exposing the EU and commission to charges of trade discrimination and limiting the ability of Member States to achieve their legally binding GHG emission reductions.     

重庆市温室气体排放清单研究与核算

城市化进程所带来的大量能源消费和温室气体排放已成为制约城市健康快速发展的瓶颈因素,亟需进行定量核算和分析。开展温室气体清单研究对节能减排和低碳城市建设具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文以重庆市为案例,通过清单方法分析主要温室气体排放源和碳汇,考虑主要能源活动、工业、废弃物处置、农业、畜牧业、湿地过程和林业碳汇,核算排放总量和强度,剖析重庆温室气体排放结构和现状。结果显示:1997-2008年重庆市温室气体排放总量呈现出上升趋势,2008年比1997年增长了2.31倍,其中增长幅度较大的是一次能源消费过程、外购电力和工业非能源过程。此外,随着温室气体排放量的增加,单位产值温室气体排放量却呈现下降的趋势,反映重庆市温室气体排放控制取得了一定效果。最后根据重庆市温室气体排放结果进行分析,提出了改变能源结构和工业结构、提高能效和加强"森林重庆"建设等政策建议,为重庆市转型低碳经济发展提供参考。     

The impacts of local farming system development trajectories on greenhouse gas emissions in the northern mountains of Vietnam

The northern mountain region of Vietnam (NMR) is dominated by swidden/fallow farming systems. The fallow land of these systems is populated by small trees and bushes. Since the 1960s the government of Vietnam has tried to limit or stop swiddening and replace it with permanent upland agricultural fields, paddy, fruit trees and animal husbandry. Discussion in the policy debate and literature focuses on the impacts these changes have on local people’s livelihoods. There have been no attempts to evaluate the impact of these changes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper examines the realities of current farming system changes taking place at the hamlet level and other changes that could take place due to government land use policies and extension programs. The paper answers the following questions: How could farming system changes influence net GHGs? Which farming system changes in the NMR, the trajectories of changes that are currently observed or those that would be followed if farmers adhere strictly to government policies and programs, will have a greater affect on the GHG contributions from agriculture in the region? Could ‘clean development mechanism’ (CDM) projects make a difference in the profitability of the pathways mentioned? Results show: (1) if farming systems in the NMR continue along currently observed change trajectories there will be increases in GHG emissions; (2) if the NMR farming systems change according to government policies and programs there will be a net sequestration of carbon in regrowing vegetation during the initial 20 years; (3) over the longer term, in areas where systems change to fit government policies, increased GHG emissions from other changes in the farming systems (e.g. increased paddy and increased pig raising in sties) will overtake the amounts of carbon sequestered in vegetation; (4) CMD projects only make a difference if (a) maximum biomass potential of regrowing fallow can be reached; (b) a favourable baseline is chosen; (c) timing and length of the accounting period is correct; and (d) farmers do not take compensatory action in response to government policies. Given these conditions it does not appear that currently envisioned clean development mechanisms would be beneficial to farmers in the NMR.     

Evaluation of food industry by-products as feed in semi-arid dairy farming systems: the case of Jordan

Dairy feeding systems in many semi-arid countries are based on imported concentrates and forages. This has economic and ecological implications given the increase in global feed prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use change. This paper aims to explore alternative dairy feeding systems under semi-arid conditions, using Jordan as an example. The feedings systems under investigation vary in their share of food industry by-products (replacing concentrates in the diet) and are compared against the current concentrate-based feeding systems. The systems are evaluated against three criteria: their nutritional value, their impact on the cost of milk production, and their GHG mitigation potential. Feed samples from eleven food industry by-products and ten conventional feeds were collected from food factories and from three typical dairy farms, representing the typical large-, medium- and small-scale farm types, respectively. Feed samples were analysed for their chemical composition and metabolisable energy contents. In addition, economic and production farm data were collected and entered into a model for GHGs calculation and economic evaluation. The results suggest that inclusion of locally available food industry by-products in the rations of milk cows in semi-arid production systems can be instrumental in reducing production costs and mitigating GHG emissions. Cost of milk production in the model farms can be lowered by up to 14 %; mitigation of CO₂ eq. emission ranged between 70 and 290 g CO₂ eq./kg milk. The degree to which these benefits can be reaped is positively related to the level of inclusion of by-product feeds in lactating cows’ diets.     

中国海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放时序分析与因素分解

综合渔获量规模、作业方式结构、作业方式能耗强度和燃油排放系数等因素对温室气体排放的影响，在对2006～2011年海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放核算和时序分析基础上，利用LMDI方法对温室气体排放进行了因素分解。结果表明：海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放量呈现出稳定的增长趋势，平均每年温室气体排放量增长2666万t；拖网、刺网两种作业方式产生的温室气体占相应年份海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放量的比重最大，约占80%，且温室效应最强。渔获量规模效应是驱动我国海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放的最主要因素。建议通过采取“捕捞配额”或实施较长期的禁渔休渔制度来降低渔获量总量，不仅有利于保护海洋渔业资源，还能减少温室气体排放，也可以通过建立海洋捕捞生态补偿制度的方式来调整作业方式结构向低温室气体排放转变     

Low-carbon transitions in world regions: comparison of technological mitigation potential and costs in 2020 and 2030 through bottom-up analyses

This study focuses on low-carbon transitions in the mid-term and analyzes mitigation potentials of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030 in a comparison based on bottom-up-type models. The study provides in-depth analyses of technological mitigation potentials and costs by sector and analyzes marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves from 0 to 200 US $/tCO₂ eq in major countries. An advantage of this study is that the technological feasibility of reducing GHG emissions is identified explicitly through looking at distinct technological options. However, the results of MAC curves using the bottom-up approach vary widely according to region and model due to the various differing assumptions. Thus, this study focuses on some comparable variables in order to analyze the differences between MAC curves. For example, reduction ratios relative to 2005 in Annex I range from 9 % to 31 % and 17 % to 34 % at 50 US $/tCO₂ eq in major countries. An advantage of this study is that the technological feasibility of reducing GHG emissions is identified explicitly through looking at distinct technological options. However, the results of MAC curves using the bottom-up approach vary widely according to region and model due to the various differing assumptions. Thus, this study focuses on some comparable variables in order to analyze the differences between MAC curves. For example, reduction ratios relative to 2005 in Annex I range from 9 % to 31 % and 17 % to 34 % at 50 US /tCO₂ eq in 2020 and 2030, respectively. In China and India, results of GHG emissions relative to 2005 vary very widely due to the difference in baseline emissions as well as the diffusion rate of mitigation technologies. Future portfolios of advanced technologies and energy resources, especially nuclear and renewable energies, are the most prominent reasons for the difference in MAC curves. Transitions toward a low-carbon society are not in line with current trends, and will require drastic GHG reductions, hence it is important to discuss how to overcome various existing barriers such as energy security constraints and technological restrictions.     

Global Research Trends Related to CO2 Emissions and Their Enlightenment to China

Given the growing awareness of the likely catastrophic impacts of climate change and close association of climate change with global emissions of greenhouse gases (of which carbon dioxide is more prominent) , considerable research efforts have been devoted to the analysis of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and its relationship to sustainable development. Now GHG reduction programs have been coming into effect in many developed countries that have more responsibility for historical CO2 emissions, and the studies have become mature. First, the GHG emissions accounting system is more all-inclusive and the methods are more rational with the effort of IPCC from 1995 and all other researchers related. Second, the responsibility allocation is more rational and fair. Along with the clarity of "carbon transfer" and "carbon leakage", the perspective and methodology for allocating regional CO2 emissions responsibility is turning from production base to consumption base. Third, the decomposition method has become more mature and more complex. For example, the decomposition formulas are including KAYA expression and input-output expression and the decomposition techniques are developed from index analysis to simple average divisia and then adaptive-weighting divisia. Fourth, projection models have become more integrated and long-term. The top-down model and bottom-up model are both inter-embedded and synergetic. Trends above give some advice for the research on CO2 in China, such as emissions factors database construction, deeper-going research on emissions responsibility and structure analysis, promotion of modeling technology and technology-environment database.     

崇明岛中长期碳排放预测及其影响因素分析

为更好地推动崇明低碳生态岛的建设,在应用以自下而上的部门法为基础的区域范围温室气体排放评估核算方法,全面核算崇明岛能源消费及温室气体排放现状的基础上,应用LEAP模型,通过情景分析预测崇明岛中长期能源消费需求以及温室气体排放水平,并进一步应用对数平均指数法(LMDI)对影响崇明岛未来温室气体排放的主要因素进行了定量分析。研究表明:参考情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量从2010年的101万吨标煤增加到2050年的533万吨标煤,净碳足迹从2010年的238万吨CO2e增加到2050年的579万吨CO2e。崇明岛能源消费需求和碳排放增加的主要驱动因素是未来的经济发展、人口增长和生活水平的提高,但是通过一系列的优化,尤其是能源结构的变化和能耗强度的下降,减排情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量有可能在2039年左右达到峰值,并有望在2050年左右实现"零碳岛"的长期发展目标。结合定量分析的结论,进一步提出了实现崇明岛低碳发展中长期目标的可能性和重点发展领域。     

Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N₂O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO₂e ha^?1 y^?1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO₂e y^?1. Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.