可持续发展研究的3个关键课题与中国转型发展

从数量扩张的增长模式转向质量提升的发展模式,是中国未来30年转型发展的核心问题.本文介绍了20世纪90年代以来可持续发展在3个关键课题上的研究进展.在经济增长与社会富祉的关系上,指出经济增长对于社会富祉的贡献存在着门槛,跨过这个门槛经济增长对福利贡献的边际效用开始递减；在经济增长与资源环境的关系上,指出经济增长没有导致资源环境消耗的倒U型曲线,在自然资本存在限制的情况下无限的经济增长是不可能的;在政府支出与民生发展的关系上,指出公共支出增大并不必然导致社会福利的提高,而公共支出的结构与方式对民生发展却是极其重要的.在对每个问题分析事实依据、原因解释、政策意义的基础上,针对中国转型发展提出了一些具有长期意义的理论思考与政策思考.     

贫困山区耕地利用转型对农业经济增长质量的影响

贫困山区耕地利用转型发展是推动农业经济增长、助力脱贫攻坚和促进区域协调发展的重要途径。本文基于土地边际报酬递减规律探讨了贫困山区耕地利用转型对农业经济增长质量的影响机理,构建了影响效用实证模型,以鄂西16个贫困县为例开展实证研究,从技术效率和技术进步角度进一步分析了影响发生的具体原因,并针对各县市实际发展情况提出发展建议,以期为贫困山区经济增长和区域协调发展提出科学参考。结果表明:(1)耕地利用转型从功能形态转型和空间形态转型两方面对农业经济增长质量产生影响,其中功能形态包含作物生产、生活保障、生态保护三种形态,空间形态包含景观格局和数量分布两种形态;(2)耕地利用转型在一定时期内可促进农业经济增长质量的提升,但长期来看,耕地利用转型对农业经济增长质量的影响存在边际效用递减性;(3)实证发现,房县、长阳县、建始县、来凤县等4县耕地功能形态转型对农业经济增长质量存在促进效用而空间形态转型存在边际递减效用,郧县和咸丰县则是空间形态转型存在促进效用而功能形态转型存在边际效用递减性;(4)郧西县、竹山县、丹江口市、秭归县、恩施市和巴东县等6县市耕地功能形态转型和空间形态转型对农业经济增长质量均存在促进效用,竹溪县、利川市、宣恩县和鹤峰县等4县则均存在边际递减效用,验证了机理分析的正确性。论文还从利用地租地价杠杆和土地工程技术、完善耕地政策制度等方面提出了贫困山区耕地利用与管理的政策建议。     

从增长到稳态：赫尔曼·戴利的可持续发展思想评述

赫尔曼·戴利对可持续发展的理论、指标、政策等有独到的研究,“目的-手段”框架是其可持续发展思想的集中体现,认为可持续发展应该聚焦最终目的——福利水平和最终手段——自然资本,为了能够可持续地利用自然资本来提升福利水平,现行的增长经济应该转型为稳态经济;经济增长具有生物物理属性,受到热力学定律、行星边界等制约,因此无限增长是不可能的;当边际环境和社会成本大于边际经济收益,经济增长就会成为“非经济增长”,因此无限增长是不必要的。稳态经济是增长经济的替代,主张在生态环境的承载能力内增进居民福祉,要求物质财富存量实现高效和公平合理利用,是实现可持续发展的较好途径。该研究围绕可持续发展要求增长经济转型为稳态经济这条主线,有内在逻辑地就“经济生产的新视角”“无限增长的不可能性”“无限增长的不必要性”“稳态经济与可持续发展兼容”等戴利可持续发展思想的主要方面进行评述,深化了可持续发展的理论研究。在此基础上,该研究提出戴利的可持续发展思想可以从另一个视角为中国当下的高质量发展提供理论支持和启示,为研究中国的高质量发展打开理论视野。     

社会资本与经济增长及环境影响的关系研究

"社会资本"作为一个多维度的概念,近年来引起了全世界的广泛关注。大量证据已证明,高水平的社会资本是生态、社会和经济职责和谐过程的先决条件,社会资本对于促进经济增长、缓解贫困、提高工程绩效、管理自然资源与保护环境非常关键。本文阐释了社会资本概念,分析了社会资本的主要成分、分析层次及主要类型等维度,指出社会资本的主要成分包括网络、规范、制裁,分析层次包括个体、中观、宏观,主要类型包括结合型、沟通型、联系型;在此基础上,梳理总结了社会资本与经济增长及环境影响关系的国际研究进展,阐释了社会资本促进经济增长、影响生态环境的作用机理,分析了社会资本与适应能力的关系,简要介绍了国际上理解和研究社会系统与关键资源之间的相互作用和影响的思想框架。最后,讨论分析了社会资本与经济增长、环境影响的关系研究中需要进一步完善的问题。     

“跨工业化”经济增长模式分析——来自印度经济增长模式的启示

本文以印度经济增长模式为例,以竞争优势理论为分析框架,研究了跨工业化经济增长模式的内涵、生成机制与优劣势。研究表明,"基础设施薄弱、精英人才涌现"的资源禀赋结构、社会内部消费需求拉动、相关产业支撑、龙头企业带动、自由化的政策改革环境以及技术进步推动,促进了印度"跨工业化"经济增长模式的生成。基于此,通过中印两国经济增长模式的比较,指出"跨工业化"经济增长模式具有资源环境友好特征、能借助服务业的发展反向刺激工业发展等优势;并揭示了"跨工业化"增长模式的劣势,即难以提高就业率、服务业持续发展缺乏基础设施和制造业支撑等。鉴于我国服务业发展滞后,工业发展面临资源与环境高消耗的困境,我国应借鉴印度经验,培养服务业人才队伍、提高社会消费需求、优化服务业产业结构、培育服务业龙头企业、加快服务业自由化改革、提高服务业创新能力,以加快服务业的发展,增强服务业对工业的反哺效应,保障我国工业化进程在"资源与环境双约束下"又快又好地和谐推进。     

循环经济理性下的资源安全制度创新研究

循环经济是基于资源稀缺性理论产生并发展的,其思想可追溯至中国的远古时代,而有关循环经济的理论则是西方发达国家首先阐述并实践且取得了较好的经济社会效益.循环经济是后工业文明时代人类所能找到的最理想的经济发展形态,它的持续健康发展需要法律规范的明确指引与切实保障.我国的<循环经济促进法>于2008年8月29日经十一届全国人大常委会通过,于2009年1月1日正式施行.文章描绘了在<循环经济促进法>保障下的中国循环经济发展图景,以各行为主体的权利义务为基点,实现产业合理布局、区域循环有序与微观消费的生态和谐.基于资源稀缺性的理论背景与现实基础来探讨循环经济与资源稀缺性的互动关系模型,强调了边际收益与边际成本、私人边际成本与社会边际成本效应下循环经济的制度正当性.在互动关系模型的基础上,分别从社会各行动主体的行为惯性、制度安排与技术创新等方面探讨了循环经济模式下资源安全与经济社会可持续发展的理想建构.     

绿色经济新理念及中国开展绿色经济研究的思考

联合国里约20周年世界峰会的重要内容之一是倡导绿色经济。绿色经济的概念最早在1989年由英国环境经济学家Pearce提出,但现在的绿色经济却具有全新的意义。本文基于参加联合国有关绿色新政和绿色经济的政策咨询和研究报告,论述了绿色经济的基本背景、三重效益、研究模型以及绿色经济与生活质量的关系,对如何开展中国绿色经济研究进行探讨。首先,文章认为在深入探讨绿色经济前,需要了解当前发展绿色经济的基本背景,明确为什么要发展绿色经济、什么才是我们所需要的绿色经济,以及怎样促进绿色经济发展三个基本问题。其二,绿色经济与褐色经济的情景模拟表明,绿色经济发展模式具有更好的三重底线效益。联合国的T-21模型对过去40年(1970-2010)及未来40年(2010-2050)进行了绿色情景与褐色情景两种模拟,认为在自然资本的环境收益方面,绿色经济发展情景下自然资本的退化得到了基本遏制,而褐色经济发展情景下自然资本的退化会进一步增强;在物质资本的经济收益方面,绿色经济发展情景下,2020年以前经济增长率(2.5%)会低于褐色经济(3%),但从长期平均增长率看绿色经济发展模式(2.5%)可以带来比褐色经济发展模式(2%)更好的经济增长;在人力资本的社会效益方面,在2030年以前绿色经济发展情景下就业机会有小幅减少,但长期来看,绿色经济能够创造与褐色经济同样多的就业机会,甚至可以有小幅的增加(0.6%)。其三,绿色经济研究模型表明,绿色经济投资于自然资本可以实现所需要的经济社会发展与自然资本消耗的脱钩。绿色经济假说是:将资金投资于提高资源能源效率与扩大自然资本两个方面,是否能够导致更好的经济社会发展。基于该理论假设,联合国等国际组织将自然资本引入生产函数,建立了Threshold-21模型,证明绿色经济即投资于自然资本可以实现所需要的经济社会发展与自然资本消耗的脱钩。其四,绿色经济发展模式不仅有利于经济增长,同时能够增加生活质量。绿色经济假说,强调了绿色投资对生活质量有正的影响。通过生态绩效模型、结构方程模型以及典型案例研究等三种方法进行分析,研究表明:减少自然资本消耗可以减少生态环境的治理成本和维护成本、维持与增加自然资本对人类的功能;可以提高自然资本的生产效率,用较少的自然资本投入达到社会稳定所需要的人造资本;可以提高人造资本的服务效率,用一定的物质存量为更多的人服务。其五,开展深化中国绿色经济理论与绿色发展模式的系统研究。联合国等国际组织倡导的绿色经济可以给我们发展中国的绿色经济带来新的启示,笔者认为对中国绿色经济理论与绿色发展模式开展深入和系统的研究,应该包括理论内涵、实证分析、发展情景、行动领域、政策体系等五个依次递进、前后照应的研究模块。     

循环经济理论研究综述

本文在梳理相关文献的基础上,得出以下主要结论:①循环经济尚未形成完整的理论体系,理论内核不明晰,理论边界模糊,理论研究陷入"漂移状态"和"破碎困境";②资源效用是循环经济理论关注的永恒主题,循环经济的研究对象是满足人类生存和发展的资源效用的最大化与最优配置,循环经济与传统经济的本质区别在于资源效用的衡量标准不同;③循环经济的本质属性是"经济",其外延是"社会"和"环境"与"经济"的关系,循环经济的研究范围包括资源节约与社会公平、环境保护之间的关系研究,但社会公平和环境保护本身并不是循环经济的研究内容。同时,总结了循环经济理论深化研究的几个方向:①废物资源化的形成机制研究;②同类产品频繁交易产生的资源浪费问题及其治理研究;③生产过剩与过度消费产生的资源浪费问题及其治理研究;④资源效用的度量标准、数学表达及其制度设计研究;⑤物质效率的定量计算研究。     

碳强度的双重红利:环境质量改善与经济持续增长

本文构建了一个由代表性家庭、政府和八个不同行业组成的一般均衡模型,同时在模型中嵌入了碳强度、碳交易两种不同的环境政策工具,并基于2007年我国投入产出表数据进行校准。本文通过数值分析指出我国约束全行业的碳减排政策对福利损失的边际影响最小,约束重点行业的碳减排政策对实际GDP的影响存在倒"U"型关系,在碳强度目标约束不高于17%时,碳强度政策对社会福利的损失影响要低于碳交易政策;在碳强度目标约束不高于21%时,约束重点行业的碳减排政策对实际GDP的边际损失影响要低于约束全行业的政策。我国的碳减排政策在当前碳强度约束目标下实现了环境质量改善和经济持续增长的双重红利,该结论支持了环境Porter假说。双重红利产生的原因是由于碳减排政策使得资源要素使用成本上升,进而提高了劳动等低碳要素需求,使得行业之间生产要素重新配置,在一定情况下实现了经济增长和环境改善。进一步,本文给出了环境规制政策的设计方案,根据边际减排相等以实现总减排成本最小化的原理,给出了约束全行业减排的环境政策下各行业碳强度的任务分解,通过模拟计算各行业的边际减排成本,可以为政府根据行业维度制定更为科学、合理的减排方案提供理论和实践支持。此外,本文还估计了产业需求变动、行业最终消费结构变动、行业全要素生产率变动、行业需求中间投入品替代弹性技术变动等各种经济发展方式的变化对碳排放量和碳强度的边际影响,深入分析和理解经济发展方式与碳强度变化之间的内在联系,有利于识别经济系统中相互关联的各种因素如何对碳强度的政策目标产生影响。本文的研究指出我国应大力提高各项中间投入品的单位碳排放节能技术水平,这是降低碳排放强度最直接的、最有力的政策措施。政府应进一步加大投入,通过引进、消化和吸收国际先进技术、国际合作开发和自主创新等方式,鼓励企业使用清洁能源,提高工业废气、尾气的处理技术水平,鼓励低碳部门的技术研发,鼓励企业提高资本、劳动的生产技术水平,提高中间投入品的使用效率,这些对于实现我国总体的减排目标具有十分重要的意义。     

中国城市空间重构对经济增长的效应机制分析

基于空间经济理论对中国城市空间重构影响经济增长的模式机理、效应机制进行阐述,分别从生产要素——土地、资本、劳动力空间配置对提高要素利用效率的微观机制,及传统经济学考察经济增长目标的宏观层面——产业结构、就业和居民收入来讨论空间重构对于经济增长的影响,以发展传统城市经济理论对城市重构效应的经济学解释,丰富中国城市空间的研究体系。分析表明:①城市空间集中和分异是中国城市经济增长的动力;②土地利用和分配过程导致城市地域分异,而城市空间增长的区位形态决定土地功能结构,土地价值空间分布也相应发生变化;③生产空间再造引起的劳动力地域重组是引发城市重构的重要原因,劳动力区位过程应遵循效用平衡条件,避免空间失配造成的效率损失;④每一轮城市扩展都将带来居民收入的提升,城市重构应为低收入居民在居住空间上预留适当位置和配置合理资源。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

How Do Groups Solve Local Commons Dilemmas? Lessons from Experimental Economics in the Field

The use of experimental settings to observe human behaviour in a controlled environment of incentives, rules and institutions, has been widely used by the behavioural sciences for sometime now, particularly by psychology and economics. In most cases the subjects are college students recruited for one to two hour decision making exercises in which, depending on their choices, they earn cash averaging US$ 20. In such exercises players face a set of feasible actions, rules and incentives (payoffs) involving different forms of social exchange with other people, and that in most cases involve some kind of externalities with incomplete contracts, such as in the case of common-pool resources situations. Depending on the ecological and institutional settings, the resource users face a set of feasible levels of extraction, a set of rules regarding the control or monitoring of individual use, and sometimes ways of imposing material or non-material costs or rewards to those breaking or following the rules. We brought the experimental lab to the field and invited about two hundred users of natural resources in three Colombian rural villages to participate in such decision making exercises and through these and other research instruments we learned about the ways they solve - or fail to - tragedies of the commons with different social institutions. Further, bringing the lab to the field allowed us to explore some of the limitations of existing models about human behaviour and its consequences for designing policies for conserving ecosystems and improving social welfare.     

Comparative analysis of the effect of predator odor on morphological and physiological parameters of adult male Campbell hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus campbelli</Emphasis>) and dwarf hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus sungorus</Emphasis>)

The effect of long-term exposure to natural excretions of the European polecat on the morphological parameters and hormonal status of adult male Campbell hamsters (Phodopus campbelli) and dwarf hamsters (Ph. sungorus) was studied. Exposure to volatile components of natural excreta of a potential predator did not have any significant effect on hamsters. The combined influence of volatile and nonvolatile components of the polecat’s excretions caused physiological stress in Ph. campbelli, while in Ph. sungorus, on the contrary, an increase in thymus weight and the plasma testosterone level was recorded.     

Human exposure to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE), as evidenced by data from a duplicate diet study, indoor air, house dust, and biomonitoring in Germany

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) are used as flame retardants in a wide variety of products. As part of the Integrated Exposure Assessment Survey (INES), this study aimed to characterize the exposure of an adult German population using duplicate diet samples, which were collected daily over seven consecutive days, and indoor air and house dust measurements. Our study population consisted of 27 female and 23 male healthy subjects, aged 14–60 years, all of whom resided in 34 homes in southern Bavaria. In these 34 residences the air was sampled using glass fiber filters and polyurethane foams and the dust was collected from used vacuum cleaner bags.The median (95th percentile) daily dietary intake of six Tetra- to HeptaBDE congeners was 1.2 ng/kg b.w. (3.3 ng/kg b.w.) or 67.8 ng/day (208 ng/day) (calculated from the 7-day median values of each study subject). Concentrations in indoor air and dust (cumulative Tri- to DecaBDE congener readings) ranged from 8.2 to 477 pg/m³ (median: 37.8 pg/m³) and 36.6 to 1580 ng/g (median: 386 ng/g), respectively. For some congeners, we identified a significant correlation between air and dust levels.The median (95th percentile) blood concentration of total Tetra- to HexaBDE congener readings was 5.6 (13.2) ng/g lipid. No significant sex differences were observed, but higher blood concentrations were found in younger participants. Using a simplified toxicokinetic model to predict the body burden from exposure doses led to results that were of the same order of magnitude as the measured blood concentrations.Based on these measurements and given our exposure assumptions, we estimated for the total tetra- to heptabrominated congener count an average (high) comprehensive total daily intake of 1.2 ng/kg b.w. (2.5 ng/kg b.w.). Overall, our results suggest that dietary exposure is the dominant intake pathway at least in our study population, responsible for 97% (average intake) and 95% (high intake) of the total intake of an adult population.