安徽省耕地资源数量变化及其对粮食安全的影响

利用1978年以来30年的耕地资源统计数据，分析了安徽省耕地资源数量变化总体特征，探讨了耕地资源数量变化对粮食安全的影响。其结果表明：（1）耕地资源总量和人均耕地占有量均有呈直线递减趋势，其中耕地资源总量年均减少率为024%，人均耕地面积年均减少率为115%。（2）粮食产量总体呈增加趋〖JP2〗势，但具有较明显波动性，粮食安全仍将面临着很大挑战。（3）粮食总产量与单产水平和复种指数密切相关；而粮食总产量年变化率，则主要受耕地面积和粮食播种面积变化影响。1978年以来，耕地资源数量逐渐成为影响该省粮食产量增加的主要限制因子.     

中美两国经济发展与铜消费量对比研究

发达国家的发展过程表明,经济增长与铜消费量密切相关。本文由IPAT方程推导了铜消费指标与GDP间的关系式,得出GDP的年增长率（g）的单位GDP铜消费量的年下降率（t）是影响铜消费量变化的两个重要参数。给出了中、美两国铜消费指标与GDP间的关系曲线;中国1960-2004年间单位GDP的铜消费量并未形成明显的上升或下降趋势;美国1941-2004年间单位GDP铜消费量的变化总体上逐年降低,1941年为17.80kg/10^4USD,2003年为2.56kg/10^4USD,单位GDP的铜消费量降低近7倍。对应不同的单位GDP铜消费量年下降率的假设,估计了未来25年内中国经济增长与铜消费指标间的关系以及单位GDP铜消费量降低的倍数。     

The Dynamics of Species Composition and Abundance of Wasps from the Families Pompilidae, Sphecidae, and Vespidae (Hymenoptera: Aculeata) in Successional Pine Biogeocenoses of the Berezinskii Biosphere Reserve

The data on the dynamics of population size and species composition of wasps from the families Pompilidae, Sphecidae, and Vespidae were obtained in the course of long-term studies carried out in successional pine forests of the Berezinskii Biosphere Reserve. The abundance and species diversity of wasps were significantly higher in a polewood forest (40 years) than in a young forest (20 years) and mature moss forest (70 years). In an overgrown ride in the moss pine forest, the composition of dominant wasp species remained relatively stable during the seven-year period of observations, although the number of species and their abundance varied significantly from year to year, depending on the weather.     

Pulmonary function evaluation of cats after one year of exposure to diesel exhaust

Adult male, inbred, disease-free cats of uniform age and size were exposed eight hours per day, seven days per week to a 1 : 18 dilution of diesel exhaust emissions. After one year of exposure, the animals were removed from the chambers for measurement of lung volumes, forced expiratory flow rates, dynamic compliance and resistance, diffusing capacity, and nitrogen washout. No important changes in pulmonary function were detected with the exception of a decrease in closing volume (P < 0.05). The inability to detect decrements in pulmonary function may have been due to insufficient cocentration of exhaust, insufficient exposure length, or to the use of a species resistant to diesel exhaust. To test these possibilities, the cats are being exposed for an additional year, and another species, hamsters, are being exposed for future testing at exhaust dilutions of 1 : 18 and 1 : 9.     

长江靖江段鲇形目鱼类的数量动态分析

长江靖江段处于长江下游与河口段的交汇地带,在长江河口渔业资源养护中起着重要作用。为了解该区域鲇形目鱼类(Siluriformes)的资源动态,我们于2002~2015年间在靖江沿岸设置一座定置张网,每月定期收集2份或3份渔获样本进行分析。结果显示:14 a共采集渔获样本447份,渔获尾数为144 741尾,渔获量为934 728.9 g。种类共计121种,隶属于14目28科77属。其中鲇形目鱼类共有6 160尾、48 890.5 g,隶属于4科7属15种,占总渔获尾数的4.26%(重量占比5.23%)。光泽黄颡鱼(Pseudobagrus nitidus)、瓦氏黄颡鱼(Pelteobagrus vachellii)、黄颡鱼(Pelteobagrus fulvidraco)和粗唇鮠(Leiocassis crassilabris)等4种鲿科(Bagridae)分别占鲇形目尾数的72.71%、20.55%、3.18%和1.70%,是主要的优势种。14 a的单位捕捞努力量渔获量CPUEN结果显示,光泽黄颡鱼和黄颡鱼总体上呈逐年下降趋势,瓦氏黄颡鱼呈不规则的年际波动状态,而粗唇鮠则呈逐年上升趋势。14 a鲇形目鱼类总体的相对重要指数(IRI)结果显示,光泽黄颡鱼和瓦氏黄颡鱼为这一水域的常见种,黄颡鱼为一般种,粗唇鮠为少见种。研究还显示,光泽黄颡鱼和瓦氏黄颡鱼的优势体长组分别为4~6 cm和6~10 cm,仅长江靖江段沿岸平均每年即约有342.5万尾的光泽黄颡鱼和85.3万尾的瓦氏黄颡鱼被捕获,因此该江段是宝贵的苗种资源库。建议应降低捕捞强度,控制沿岸污水排放,减少岸线码头建设,保护河岸植被,以维持幼鱼栖息、觅食和育幼环境,保护渔业资源。     

基于能值分析的武穴市耕地利用效益时空特征分析

开展耕地利用效益评价,对实现农业生态文明和耕地高效持续利用具有指导意义。结合能值分析、自相关等方法,评价和分析了2002~2011年武穴市耕地利用效益的时空演变特征。结果表明:近10a来武穴市耕地利用效益的能值投入和产出处于上升趋势,增长速度分别达58.17%和61.29%;能值投入中工业能值所占比重最大,超过总量的70%以上,2011年达到82.17%;耕地集约度增加6.60×1015sej的同时环境压力也在变大,耕地环境负载率由2002年的2.88上升至2011年的4.61;农业生产能力和农民生活水平不断提高;空间自相关结果显示武穴市各乡镇单位面积耕地能值投入和产出具有较明显的东高—南低—西平的聚集特征。研究结果对优化武穴市农业生产物化投入结构、提高产出效果,实现耕地高效持续利用具有一定的指导意义。     

基于CI指数的湖北干旱及其变化特征分析

利用湖北省71个气象台站1960～2011年地面观测资料，按照国家标准《气象干旱等级GB/T20481 2006》中的综合气象干旱指数CI对湖北省干旱特点及其气候变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：(1)西北部地区全年有近1/3的时间为干旱日，季节变化差异小，是湖北省易干旱地区；中东部地区年干旱日天数相对较少，但集中在7～10月伏秋季，是湖北典型的季节性干旱地区；(2)湖北省中旱以上干旱过程平均1 a一次；重旱过程平均2~3 a一遇，其中西北部地区2 a一遇；而特重旱过程全省平均6～7 a一遇，其中西北部地区为5 a一遇；70%重旱过程出现在伏秋季;(3)全球气候变化背景下，湖北省一般性干旱年出现频率有明显的增加，而大旱年出现频率变化不大；空间上近20 a西北部地区的大旱年出现频率增加明显；中东部地区大旱年呈减少趋势，而一般性干旱年出现频率呈增加趋势；(4)中东部地区中旱过程出现频率近20 a增多较明显，主要反映在7～10月伏秋季，重旱过程呈减少趋势；而西北部地区重旱过程增加，主要表现在11～2月冬闲季和3～6月春夏季     

三峡水库蓄水后长江中游宜昌江段鱼类早期资源群聚动态

基于2007～2018年葛洲坝下宜昌江段鱼类早期资源调查资料的整理分析,采用群落生态学方法对12年来长江中游鱼类早期资源群聚特性和年际变化趋势进行了研究,探讨了三峡水库蓄水后鱼类早期资源的优势种更替过程和群落结构变异.结果显示:12年间共采集到鱼卵5目9科49种,其中产漂流性卵鱼类28种.鱼卵物种数的年际变化趋势不显著,但年间变幅较大(18～30种/a).鱼卵丰度的年际变化表现出明显的趋势性上升,其中"四大家鱼"采集数量和密度呈先下降后上升的"U"型变化趋势.群落结构分析显示,12年间宜昌江段鱼卵物种多样性指数均呈缓慢下降趋势,并在2007～2008、2009～2013和2014～2018年形成三组不同的时间聚类,组间差异显著.SIMPER分析表明,各时期鱼卵群落差异主要受优势种和重要种所决定.2013年前,贝氏(鳖)(Hemiculter.bleekeri)、银鮑(Squalidus argentatus)、银鲴(Xerocypris macrolepis)、草鱼(Ctenopha-ryngodonidellus)等交替出现成为主要优势物种;2013年后,贝氏(鳖)成为主要优势物种,优势种和重要种的鱼卵数量占比进一步上升(大于90％).研究结果指出,2003年三峡水库蓄水后,葛洲坝下宜昌江段鱼类早期资源优势种更替现象逐渐消失,群落结构趋于稳定,繁殖鱼类群落结构正向"单一化"发展.     

长江近口段沿岸刀鲚生物量的时间格局

为了解长江刀鲚Coilia nasus资源的变动状况,探讨沿岸水域对刀鲚资源的保育作用,于2002~2013年间用定制张网对长江靖江段沿岸鱼类作了每月2~3个样本的采集。分析结果显示,12a采集的369份样品中,刀鲚的出现频率达94.6%,分别占总渔获数量和重量的5.18%和5.46%。刀鲚平均CPUEN和CPUEW有16.7±19.9尾和106.6±109.5g,是沿岸鱼类群聚的优势种或次优势种。但其年资源量并不稳定,最高的2010年是最低2002年的5.4陪。平均体长123.6±37.0mm,平均体重仅7.5±8.2g。0+龄组占78.9%,1+龄组占20.7%,2+龄仅出现在4、5月份,且仅占当月个体数的3.0%,幼体是沿岸刀鲚群体的主要组成成分。从0+龄个体的月度体长分布看,当年孵化的幼鱼大多栖息在河岸水域,沿岸生境在维持刀鲚幼鱼资源上具有重要作用。分析显示,4月1日至6月30日的长江禁渔期虽可保护约42.6%的幼鱼个体,但从保护效果看,还因适当延长沿岸水域的禁渔时间。维护沿岸水域的生境完整性,也是保护长江刀鲚幼鱼资源的重要措施。     

荆江分洪区土地利用时空动态变化研究

通过1986、1996 和 2002 年3期 Landsat TM＼ETM 遥感图像,分析得到荆江分洪区 1986～1996年 和 1996～2002 年土地利用变化情况及土地利用转移矩阵。17年来,荆江分洪区土地利用结构和强度发生了重大的变化。主要表现为：城乡居民及建设用地通过吞食大量耕地、林地而得到迅速增加,年均增幅达到9.66％;林地大规模减少,主要向农业用地和建设用地转变;由于研究区域水旱轮作,水田、旱地年际变化很大,主要根据市场行情决定作物种植。水域和滩涂也逐年减少,年均减幅分别为1.85％和3.34％。土地利用变化的主要驱动因素是人口的增长和经济的发展以及政策制度的激励和导向作用。根据荆江分洪区在整个长江防洪工程中的总体地位,根据分洪区应有别于非分洪区的政策和法规,采取国家扶持和引导,制定合理的规划和经济发展政策,调整区内土地利用结构和控制人口增长,实现分洪和经济可持续发展。     

鄱阳湖子湖“堑秋湖”渔业资源结构特征分析

"堑秋湖"是广泛存在于鄱阳湖湖区且与鄱阳湖水文节律特征相顺应的一种渔业方式。为了解"堑秋湖"渔获物组成特征及其产量与水位之间的关系,于2011~2013年"堑秋湖"期间对江西鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区的子湖大湖池和沙湖进行了连续3年的渔业调查。2011年,大湖池和沙湖与修河分别相通23d和10d,鄱阳湖属旱涝急转气候;2012年鄱阳湖水势较大,大湖池和沙湖与修河分别相通124d和108d。2013年鄱阳湖再现旱情,大湖池和沙湖均未能与修河连通。2011年渔业调查开展7次,2012年调查9次,2013年调查5次。3a调查累计获得鱼类59种隶属于6目12科43属。3年研究结果表明渔获物以鲤科鱼类为主,在种类上变化不大但优势物种有所改变且渔获物产量呈下降趋势,无度量多维排序结果(MSD)显示鱼类群落在不同年度和子湖间分离明显。经济鱼类的单位捕捞努力量(CPUE)与水位变化的线性回归分析结果表明,2011年经济鱼类产量与当日水位呈正相关性,但2012年和2013年两者的相关性却不明显。     

Value of Ecosystem Services in Conventional and Organic Rice Paddies： A Case Study in Wannian, Jiangxi, China

In the current study,the ecosystem services(ES)of conventional and organic rice paddies in Wannian,Jiangxi Province,China are investigated.First,the ES at the field level under organic and conventional paddies were investigated.Total economic value of ES in organic rice paddies was 30093.08yuan RMB/ha per year and that of conventional rice paddies was22 793.31 yuan RMB/ha per year.The total indirect value of ES was 14 813.7 yuan RMB/ha per year in organic rice paddies and12 424.56 yuan RMB/ha per year in conventional ones.There were significant differences between organic and conventional rice paddies for the economic values.Then,this economic information was used to extrapolate and to calculate the total and indirect value of ES from rice paddies in Wangnian.The total and indirect economic values of ES from conventional rice paddies in Wannian were6791 million and 3702 million yuan RMB per year respectively,and the total and indirect economic values of ES from organic rice paddies in Wannian were 1311 million and 646 million yuan RMB per year.If half the area had being converted to organic farming in Wannian,the total and indirect economic values of ES from conventional rice paddies were 3397 million and 1851 million yuan RMB per year,and the total and indirect economic values of ES from organic rice paddies were 5794 million and 2852 million yuan RMB per year.Finally,the total economic value of ES in rice paddies in Wannian was demonstrated through geographic information system techniques.     

Irregularity in frequency of mast seed years in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus floribunda</Emphasis> a late successional species of Central Himalaya

The mid altitudinal oak, Quercus floribunda forms predominantly evergreen forest in Central Himalaya between 2000–2400 m. It is late successional, mature phase species that has limited regeneration on disturbance prone sites. This oak produces mast seed crops at an interval of 2–3 years. During masting in Q. floribunda the seed fall and germination is upto ten times greater than in normal years, emphasizing the importance of mast year crop in forest maintenance. However, no mast year in this species since the last nine years (1997–2005) is a matter of serious concern. The rise in the summer and winter temperature over a period of 15 years appear to have affected the frequency of masting in this oak. The importance of masting can be adjudged from the fact that 97% of the surviving seedlings m⁻² are of the mast year crop.     

Spatial and temporal variation of energy carbon emissions in Yantai from 2001 to 2011

In order to understand the characteristics of spatial and temporal variation, as well as provide effective ideas on carbon emissions and regulatory policy in Yantai, this article analyzed spatial and temporal variation of carbon emissions in Yantai based on energy consumption statistics for a variety of energy sorts together with industrial sectors from 2001 to 2011. The results were as following: First of all, Yantai’s carbon emissions grew by an average of 5.5% per year during the last 10 years, and there was a peak of 10.48 million carbon in the year of 2011. Second, compared with the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, the figures for energy carbon emissions growth rate were smaller; however the problem of carbon emissions were still more obvious. Furthermore, carbon emissions in Yantai increased rapidly before 2008; while after 2008, it increased more slowly and gradually become stable. Third, the energy consumption was different among regions in Yantai. For instance, the energy consumption in Longkou city was the largest, which occupied 50% of the total carbon emissions in Yantai; and the energy consumption in Chang Island was generally less than 1% of the Longkou consumption. Finally, there were relative close relationships among the spatial difference of carbon emissions, regional resources endowment, economic development, industrial structure, and energy efficiency.     

The cost-effectiveness of residential radon remediation programmes: assumptions about benefits stream profiles over time

A recent cost-effectiveness analysis of a residential radon remediation programme considered and highlighted many areas of uncertainty in the parameters chosen for the analysis. One assumption not challenged in the study was the benefits stream profile adopted. There are several different ways of loading the benefits in terms of life years into the cost-effectiveness model and several of these are explored and the results are reported in this study. The benefits profile depends upon the lead-time to cancer manifestation post environmental carcinogen (radon) exposure. The literature reviewed suggests that there are many options for loading benefits to radon-induced lung cancer prevention programmes. In this study, the alternative benefits stream profiles are explored and their implications for the cost-effectiveness ratio are examined. Adopting different benefits stream profiles to the model results in a range of cost-effectiveness ratios from 14912.90 pounds per life year gained to 52416.27 pounds per life year gained. The preferred model is reported where the life years gained are assumed to be equally distributed over the last 15 years of the 40-year time horizon of the analysis (Y25-40) and the corresponding cost-effectiveness ratio is 37,943 pounds per life year gained.     

Sediment deposition rate in the Falefa River basin, Upolu Island, Samoa

The (137)Cs method was employed to investigate the recent historical rate of sediment deposition on a lowland alluvial floodplain in the Falefa River basin, Upolu Island, Samoa. Caesium stratigraphy in the floodplain sediment profile was clearly defined, with a broad peak at 145-175 cm depth. The measured rate of vertical accretion over the last 40 years is 4.0+/-0.4 cm per year. This rate exceeds observations in humid environments elsewhere, but is similar to that recorded on other tropical Pacific Islands. Available flow data for the Vaisigano River in Samoa give a 'near-catastrophic' index value of 0.6 for flood variability. This is associated with the occurrence of tropical cyclones and storms in the Samoa area. Large floods therefore probably contribute to the high rate of floodplain sedimentation on Upolu Island. A small but growing body of evidence suggests that fluvial sedimentation rates on tropical Pacific islands are some of the highest in the world.     

鄱阳湖越冬鸟类种群动态与保护研究

目前为止缺少对鄱阳湖全湖冬候鸟的种群动态和群落方面的研究分析，拟通过对鄱阳湖冬候鸟群落多样性和种群动态的分析，为该地区冬候鸟及其栖息地保护提出建设性建议。2010～2012年冬季，通过采用直接计数法和样线法调查鄱阳湖湿地冬季碟形湖内的越冬鸟类群落结构。总共记录到越冬鸟类88种，另有29种属于文献报道但本次调查中未发现的种类。总共117种鸟类分别属于目、鹈形目、鹳形目、雁形目、鹤形目、鸻行目和佛法僧目。在鄱阳湖，种类和数量分布最多的是冬候鸟，达到78种。小天鹅、鸿雁、豆雁、白额雁、绿翅鸭和斑嘴鸭是鄱阳湖湿地越冬鸟类中的绝对优势种，鸟类个体数量最多的冬季蝶形湖泊主要包括鄱阳湖自然保护区的蚌湖、大湖池、沙湖和大汊湖，都昌县的黄金嘴，南矶山湿地自然保护区的白沙湖，余干县的林充湖和南湖，以及鄱阳县的珠湖。各种越冬鸟类在鄱阳湖湿地的种群数量分布差异主要是与各碟形湖水位的高低和食物的分布密切相关。只有在冬季开始后，使碟形湖洼地的水位逐渐降低，越冬鸟类才能够更有效的利用湖泊中的食物     

石家庄市主要农作物灌溉节水潜力研究

利用田间作物灌溉试验数据，对作物单产产量与需水量的关系进行了模拟，并据此以县域为单元，计算了1984～2001年石家庄市主要农作物冬小麦、夏玉米和棉花获得逐年实际产量的理论总需水量、理论灌溉总需水量、实际灌溉用水量，测算了3种作物灌溉节水的空间。结果表明，1984～2001a。按照节水高效试验所得的产量需水模式。获得石家庄市3种主要作物产量的理论需水总量为23-29亿m^3／a，理论灌溉需水总量为8．8-13．8亿m^3／a，实际灌溉用水量平均约为17亿m^3／a，农业年均超采地下水5．67亿m^3／a。按照目前的种植结构和产量水平，石家庄市今后作物灌溉节水的理论上限为9亿m^3／a。即使加大节水投入，实现最大节水潜力的一半。仍不能弥补目前地下水的超采量。在2010年实现南水北调，部分城市用水归还农业用水，且实现最大节水潜力的一半的情况下，水资源方能勉强维持平衡。因此，石家庄市今后应一方面加大农业节水投入和管理。另一方面，也应根据水资源承载力适当减少高耗水的冬小麦播种面积，同时全面建设节水型社会，方能实现可持续发展。     

Reproduction of the Siberian spruce in the timberline ecotone of the Iremel’ Massif

Quantitative and qualitative characteristics of cones and seeds and the emergence and survival of seedlings in the Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.) were studied in different parts of the timberline ecotone on the Iremel’ Massif, the Southern Urals, from 2003 to 2006. In the productive year 2003, a decrease in the number of cones (from 110000 to 3000 per hectare), the yield of seeds (from 13 × 10⁶ to 0.09 × 10⁶ per hectare), and their laboratory germination rate (from 34 to 14%) with an increase in elevation above sea level was recorded. In 2004, significant differences in the number of seedlings per hectare were revealed between the lower, middle, and upper parts of the ecotone (85 200, 19 800, and 0–400 ind., respectively). It has been shown that the greater part of seedlings (76–96%) perish during the first cold period. New generations of spruce trees are formed only after productive years. Seed production and seedling mortality in spruce apparently depend not only on air temperature and soil moistening but also on snow depth and soil temperature, which change more abruptly along the altitudinal gradient.     

Effects of non-human species irradiation after the Chernobyl NPP accident

The area affected by the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in 1986 has become a unique test site where long-term ecological and biological consequences of a drastic change in a range of environmental factors as well as trends and intensity of selection are studied in natural settings. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident for biota varied from an enhanced rate of mutagenesis to damage at the ecosystem level. The review comprehensively brings together key data of the long-term studies of biological effects in plants and animals inhabiting over 20 years the Chernobyl NPP zone. The severity of radiation effects was strongly dependent on the dose received in the early period after the accident. The most exposed phytocenoses and soil animals' communities exhibited dose dependent alterations in the species composition and reduction in biological diversity. On the other hand, no decrease in numbers or taxonomic diversity of small mammals even in the most radioactive habitat was shown. In a majority of the studies, in both plant and animal populations from the Chernobyl zone, in the first years after the accident high increases in mutation rates were documented. In most cases the dose-effect relationships were nonlinear and the mutation rates per unit dose were higher at low doses and dose rates. In subsequent years a decline in the radiation background rate occurred faster than reduction in the mutation rate. Plant and animal populations have shown signs of adaptation to chronic exposure. In adaptation to the enhanced level of exposure an essential role of epigenetic mechanisms of gene expression regulation was shown. Based on the Chernobyl NPP accident studies, in the present review attempts were made to assess minimum doses at which ecological and biological effects were observed.