Sustainable development in a natural resource rich economy: the case of Chile in 1985–2004

Searching for practical means to assessing economic growth’s sustainability, we extend a standard theoretical model to calculate “true” income measures for Chile, during the 1985–2004 period, and use estimates of natural capital depreciation to obtain genuine national saving measures. We found that, for the period, Chile’s economic growth was sustainable, even when approximately 2.5% of the income recorded by national accounts corresponded to depreciation of natural resources plus costs of atmospheric pollution. This performance can be partially explained by policies implemented to force fiscal responsibility and to assure wise public investment and expending during a natural resource driven growth. This evidence reinforces recent findings contradicting the natural resource curse, and the indirect negative effect of resource abundance over growth that would operate through the quality of institutions.     

The Zambian Resource Curse and its influence on Genuine Savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainable development

The empirical evidence that economies predominantly reliant on their natural resources are characterized by slower economic growth—the so-called Resource Curse (RC)—is in many ways confirmed by the case of Zambia. Haber and Menaldo (Am Polit Sci Rev 105(1):1–26, 2011) identify Zambia’s extreme dependence on copper exports as one of the worldwide most striking examples for a country suffering from this “curse.” In topical literature, the RC is traced back to the generation of natural resource rents regardless of economic performance, which among other problems leads to suboptimal reinvestment. The World Banks indicator for the “weak” sustainable development of a country—the so-called Genuine Savings (GS)—considers exactly this reinvestment of rents from the depletion of natural capital rents into physical or human capital. Although it has been shown empirically that countries dependent on primary exports on average feature negative GS rates and that the determinants of the RC influence both present economic growth and future sustainability as measured by GS, no case studies have been conducted to confirm this. Against this background, we qualitatively survey the relationship between the most discussed determinants causing the RC in Zambia and the country’s GS rate. We show that all theoretical relationships between the GS rates of a country and RC determinants such as consumption behavior, volatile world market prices, the so-called Dutch disease as well as political and institutional structures apply to Zambia between 1964 and 2010: an extreme dependency on copper exports and insufficient reinvestments of income from the depletion of Zambia’s natural capital constitutes one of the main reasons for slow growth and negative GS until the copper price booms in the second half of the 2000s.     

On shadow prices for the measurement of sustainability

The objective of this research is to discuss the direction of the bias of the existing estimates of genuine savings (also known as adjusted net savings). Such estimates rely on observed prices and quantities of investment and natural resource extraction. This has two consequences: first, it causes an overestimation of the shadow price of productive natural resources; second, it leads to omitting the depreciation of environmental services and amenities. We use simple numerical models to determine the path of optimal development under different assumptions. We find that the existing estimates of genuine savings are likely to be biased upward for countries with high levels of pollution, and biased downward for natural resource extracting countries.     

Measuring Asset Values and Flow Benefits of Non-Traded Products and Ecosystems Services of Forest and Woodland Resources in South Africa

Conventional measures of economic output, national income and wealth highly underestimate the value and contribution of natural resources to economic welfare. This paper makes estimates of the asset values and flow benefits of non-traded goods and services from forests and woodland resources in South Africa. Four benefit categories were included, namely direct consumptive use values (timber and non-timber products), non-consumptive use values (recreation for example), indirect use values (environmental services such as carbon sequestration, watershed protection, etc.), and non-use values (based on contingent valuation by tourists). Asset values were calculated knowing the change in physical stocks and the relevant prices. In South Africa, the increase in assets was equivalent to 1.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) (forests were improving, but fynbos deteriorating), and the flow benefits were equivalent to 0.8% of GDP. These are large magnitudes.     

矿业权集聚、经济增长与区域贫困减缓

本文基于泰尔指数法,计算并测度了中国资源富集区的城乡收入差距与行业(矿业)收入差距,然后结合矿业权集聚度的测度结果和中国资源税改革的变动特征,建立面板数据回归模型,考察了2004—2014年中国资源富集区矿业权集聚与经济增长、贫困减缓的长期关系。本文的主要结论是:资源税对矿业权集聚水平和矿业经济增长具有正向刺激作用,但矿业经济增长并不利于地区经济的整体改进,也不利于区域贫困减缓。资源税低水平征收对"资源诅咒"和"区域贫困"具有传导效应,进而对资源富集区的贫困减缓形成阻滞作用。另外,矿业权集聚对地区贫困的影响存在异质性,异质性揭示了区域资源性收益分配存在的差异。短期来看,矿业权集聚使中央企业惠及更多,是引致"富饶中的贫困"怪圈的重要原因;但长期来看,随着矿业权集聚度的提升,地方政府获得的累积性资源性收益不断上升,渐次增强了地方政府通过社会保障支出实施收入调节的能力,总体上有利于区域贫困的减缓。因此,为实现资源富集区的精准扶贫,资源主管部门在制定减贫措施前,应根据不同区域特点区别对待,短期内应着力于调整资源性收益分配机制,赋予地方更多资源性收益,并加大对社会的保障性支出;长期来看,应探索建立合理有效的资源税体制,促进经济增长方式的多样化,并鼓励科技创新,进一步提高社会群体的受教育程度,从根本上改变区域贫困产生的内生性环境和外生性环境。     

中国资源富集地区资源禀赋影响经济增长的机制研究

自然资源禀赋对经济增长来说究竟是“财富”还是“诅咒”是一个存在争议的问题.我国资源富集地区经济发展过程中呈现了对自然资源的高度依赖,自然资源禀赋与经济增长总体上呈现负相关关系,但资源禀赋通过何种渠道影响经济增长尚缺乏理论和实证检验.本文以“条件收敛”假说为基础,构建了资源禀赋对人均收入影响的理论模型,并将自然资源对经济增长所产生的影响区分为直接效应和间接效应；在此基础上,以我国煤炭、石油、天然气和铁矿石地域分布与储量前十名的18个省(区)19年的自然资源储量以及经济社会面板数据为研究对象,在分析了自然资源对经济增长所产生直接、间接和总效应大小的同时,对我国资源富集地区资源禀赋影响经济增长的渠道和机制进行了比较.研究结果显示:自然资源禀赋对我国经济增长的影响既存在正面的直接效应,也存在负面的间接效应,且间接效应大于直接效应；自然资源禀赋主要是通过影响投资、受教育水平、开放度、R&D等社会经济变量,降低了自然资源对经济增长的促进作用.     

基于能值的中国农业绿色经济增长与空间收敛

构造合理的评价指标,对农业绿色经济增长现状及其演变进行客观评估与分析,是实现传统农业向绿色农业转变,促进农业经济可持续发展的迫切要求。本文基于能值理论,对2003—2014年中国及各省域单元农业绿色GDP进行了测算,在此基础上,利用空间分析方法研究我国农业绿色经济增长的空间格局与收敛特征。结果表明:1相较于传统农业GDP,中国人均农业绿色GDP增长相对缓慢,农业绿色GDP占农业传统GDP的比重在80%—85%之间,并呈下降趋势。2我国农业绿色经济增长存在显著的空间集聚,且集聚效应逐渐增强。3人均农业绿色GDP并未打破传统经济增长东部高、西部低的整体格局。东部经济发达地区更高的农业生产效率和西部相对粗放的生产方式是形成这种空间格局的主要原因。4农业人均绿色GDP的收敛分析适用于空间误差自回归模型,考虑了空间自相关因素后得出的收敛速度快于普通收敛分析的收敛速度。因此,准确评价农业经济增长水平需要充分考虑农业增长中的资源环境代价。在今后的发展过程中,我国应实施差别化的农业绿色发展政策,经济发达地区需要进一步减少农业经济增长中的资源环境成本,在继续扩大高增长优势下,促进农业发展的绿色转型。而欠发达地区则应在稳定粮食生产的同时更加注重生态环境保护,努力实现整体跨越式发展。各地区还应加快现代农业技术的转移与扩散,通过增强技术知识的空间溢出效应来提高农业绿色经济增长的收敛速度,尤其是农业发展落后地区应加强与先进地区的交流合作,大力引进先进的农业生产技术与管理经验,提升人力资本水平,以逐步缩小差距,促进农业绿色经济的协调发展。     

城市化水平、工业化水平对空气质量的影响分析——基于湖北省16城市2005～2017年数据的时空模型

基于湖北省16城市2005~2017年数据，应用空间计量模型研究城市化水平、工业化水平对空气SO2、NO2、PM10含量的影响。结果显示，在城市化水平中，人均GDP对空气中SO2含量有显著负向影响，对NO2有显著正向影响，民用汽车的数量、公路里程对城市空气中SO2、NO2、PM10含量有显著正向影响，工业化水平对空气中SO2、NO2显著负向影响，对PM10含量有显著正向影响，人均绿地面积对空气中SO2的含量有显著负向影响，对NO2、PM10的影响不显著。为此，必须加快产业转型升级，做好产业发展规划；必须强化城市民用汽车尾气排放检测，加强城市配套园林建设；必须建立城市绿色发展联动机制，做好区域巡查监管。     

天然气资源现状、安全保障与法律调控

天然气资源安全是国家能源安全的重要组成部分。为了保障天然气资源安全，我国不仅应尽快完善技术、经济、行政等方面的保障手段和措施，更要切实加强法律的调控，建立健全天然气资源安全法律保障体系。结合我国国情和天然气行业发展的要求，应从立法层面构筑一个涵盖天然气上游、中游、下游产业链的统一完整的资源安全法律保障体系。具体而言，可以分为天然气生产（上游）资源安全法律保障体系、天然气流通（中游）资源安全法律保障体系、天然气消费（下游）资源安全法律保障体系。     

湖南省经济增长的资源环境代价评估

应用“含资源与环境项目的社会会计矩阵”（SAMRE）方法及其数学模型计算湖南省1991～1999年资源净产值、环境净产值和真实储蓄值。结果显示,湖南省资源净产值与环境净产值每年损失幅度为4.00亿～99.01亿元,占全省每年GDP比重的0.48％～3.18％,平均占2.35％。真实国民储蓄比传统国民经济核算体系的净储蓄减少10.41亿～109.60亿元,占全省每年GDP比重的1.25％～3.52％,平均占2.84％。分析表明自然资源损失与环境污染已成为湖南省经济总量增长的沉重代价,其发展呈弱可持续性特征。分析结果还同时显示,近年来资源与环境净产值损失占全省GDP的比重总体呈下降趋势,真实储蓄比重逐渐上升。     

国家战略经济区风险和对策

近2年国家批准了20个国家发展战略经济区.在这些地区,随各自自然环境的变化其自然灾害风险有所不同.该文基于对国家战略发展区域的历史(1949-2009年)灾情调查统计,构建了以人均损失、地均损失、损失占GDP的比重及人均GDP、地均GDP等5个指标为主的自然灾害风险评价体系.研究结果表明:天津市滨海新区、上海浦东新区为低度风险区;深圳市综合配套改革试验区、珠江三角洲地区、长江三角洲地区、辽宁沿海经济带、江苏沿海地区、沈阳经济区、武汉城市圈、黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为中度风险区;关中-天水经济区、海峡西岸经济区、广西北部湾、中部地区、长吉图开发开放先导区、海南国际旅游岛综合试验区为较高度风险区;成渝统筹城乡发展综合配套改革试验区、甘肃省、长株潭城市群、鄱阳湖生态经济区为高度风险区.该文针对各区域自然灾害风险特点提出了发展对策.     

中国的人口与发展

人口多、耕地少、人均资源相对不足,是中国的基本国情。因此,解决人口与发展之间的矛盾在我国就更为迫切。我们不能等待经济发展来引发人口出生率的自然下降,只能在大力推动社会经济发展的同时,积极推行计划生育,控制人口过快增长。     

江汉平原土地资源诅咒效应研究

将资源诅咒的研究领域由传统的矿产资源转向土地资源研究问题域,以近10a江汉平原18个县(市)的统计数据为依据,运用诅咒系数对其进行资源诅咒的实证分析。结果显示,近年来发展滞后的荆州市所辖的监利县、江陵县以及其他7个县市的土地资源诅咒系数大于1,确实存在资源诅咒现象,且江陵县与监利县还属于严重诅咒区。通过对选取指标作进一步的计算分析,得出导致其产生资源诅咒的原因主要为:以土地资源为依托的农业没有得到高效发展,而受到发展观念与投入等束缚,其二、三产业发展同样滞后。根据影响资源诅咒地区产业发展的具体因素,有针对性地给出化解土地资源诅咒的对策建议,为今后资源诅咒地区打破诅咒束缚,持续快速发展指明方向。     

How much real cost has China paid for its economic growth?

China’s economic growth has a serious impact on the environment and resources. How much real cost did China pay for its economic growth? This paper estimates the monetary costs of resource depletion, environmental pollution, and ecological degradation. The paper examines the geographic distribution of resource and environmental losses across 31 provinces. The findings allow us to reach the following conclusions. First, the national cost of resource depletion, environmental pollution, and ecological degradation in 2005 was 2.5 trillion RMB. It accounted for 13.5% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP). Secondly, the cost of resource depletion, ecological degradation, and environmental pollution has a different spatial distribution. The cost of resources depletion mainly distributes in the central area, the cost of environmental pollution is in the eastern area, and the cost of ecological degradation lies in the western area. Thirdly, the cost of natural resources depletion is 1,672.5 billion RMB, accounting for 67.8% of the total cost of resource and environment. It indicates that economic development has a high cost of resource depletion.     

退田还湖后替代生计的经济评估研究——以洞庭湖西畔山洲垸为例

分析了“湿地保护项目是如何改善民众生计的”这一问题。采用2000～2005年1 474个农户调查问卷作为基本数据，其中964个农户位于洞庭湖西畔山洲垸。得出6个结论：①WWF在西畔山洲垸的替代生计示范项目增加了农户的收入和福利，降低了脆弱性，增强可持续利用的自然资源基础；②妇女、老人以及低收入群体从项目中获益；③参加项目的农户比未参加项目的农户拥有更多的收入和财产；④与2000年项目开始时相比，生计水平有了持续的改善；⑤生计改善的原因是当地社区的积极参与、国家政策机遇、伙伴关系的建立、社区基层组织建设以及适应性管理方法的应用；⑥鱼类和水鸟等返回已恢复的湿地。表明该示范项目达到了自然保护目标。     

国家资源安全及其系统分析

资源安全是一个国家或地区可以持续、稳定、及时、足量和经济地获取所需自然资源的状态或能力。影响资源安全的因素主要包括结构、质量、数量、空间、价格、技术、制度等。分析了国家资源安全的主体目标导向性、实现过程可调控性、发展演化的长期性、空间层次差异性和系统内外互动性等特性。构建了包括社会、经济、资源、生态环境、政策法律等子系统在内的国家资源安全的系统分析框架。运用PSR模型，进行了国家资源安全系统动力学分析。     

中国2020年碳减排目标下若干关键经济指标研究

《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》将能源消耗强度和CO2排放强度作为约束性指标。实现2020年单位GDP碳排放强度下降40-45%的自主减排目标是中国今后发展的战略性任务。"十一五"期间,中国以能源消费年均6.6%的增速支撑了国民经济年均11.2%的增长,累计节能量达到6.3亿t标煤,CO2减排量达到14.6亿t,为全球应对气候变化做出了积极贡献。但单位GDP的能耗强度和碳强度下降与温室气体排放总量的上升还将是中国当前和未来很长时期温室气体排放的主要特征。根据历史数据分析,GDP增长、经济结构、产业结构、能源结构等都会对中国的碳减排产生重要影响。GDP增速高必然呈现高能耗、高排放的特征。经济结构方面,影响能耗和碳排放的是GDP(最终需求)的组成变化,即消费、投资和净出口的变化。由于第二产业在国民经济中所占的较大比重以及重化工产业长期存在,除了继续依靠技术进步提高能源使用效率外,必须重视产业结构调整对降低碳排放强度的贡献。能源结构对节能和碳减排的影响集中体现在资源禀赋不平衡、供需分布不平衡、消费种类不平衡。文章提出实现碳减排目标,必须控制和达到以下关键指标:控制GDP增速在6-8%之间;调整出口结构,提升服务贸易比重至30%左右;提高第三产业比例至47%以上,控制高能耗工业比重在22%以下;提高非化石能源比重至15%。此外,实现碳减排目标还必须:充分认识碳减排对转方式、调结构的重要意义;切实加强对不同区域碳减排工作的分类指导;提前部署重大低碳技术和重点领域技术研发;大力倡导绿色低碳消费和生活方式等。研究表明,中国实现2020年CO2自主减排目标还需付出更大的努力。     

Inside and beyond the Petro-State frontiers: geography of environmental conflicts in Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution

Venezuela is well known for its century-old oil economy, which has significantly shaped its social fabrics, territories, and eco-systems. Since 1999, the Bolivarian Revolution has led to important transformations in the context of the ‘Socialism of the 21st century’ project, but the extractivist model has deepened. This situation has created or intensified several ecological distribution conflicts, which have been further exacerbated by an extraordinary national crisis unleashed in the period 2013–2016. In this paper, a geography of the 20 most emblematic and representative socio-environmental conflicts in the period of the Bolivarian Revolution is presented. From a comparative political ecology perspective, this article aims to understand how power relations are expressed through territorial configurations and spatial dynamics of resistance, and what are the implications for sustainability. It is argued that a remarkable new situation of environmental injustice is occurring in this period. Despite the ‘eco-socialist’ discourse raised, the current Petro-State has updated the traditional regime on eco-systems, territories, and human bodies primarily by resorting to the assimilation of socio-environmental conflicts through a strategic distribution policy of oil rents. However, it has maintained a pattern of ecological degradation and social marginalization as an outcome of its economic development model. The current context of crisis has fostered intense territorial disputes and conditions for the emergence of new social actors, practices, scenarios, and geographies linked to underground economies and criminal bands, which complicate an already concerning scenario of unsustainability. The current extractivist model is reaching a breaking point. New commodity frontiers have become a main area of dispute.     

矿产资源资产化管理理论和方法的分析与展望

本文全面地介绍了矿产资源资产化管理及资产评估的国内外研究现状，系统地总结了在矿产资源价值、矿产资源资产评估、矿产资源资产化管理、资源耗竭—补偿、资源核算等方面的研究成果，并对这一课题的研究提出了建议     

中国水资源利用效率区域差异及影响因素研究

科学客观评价我国水资源利用效率的区域差异并探讨影响区域效率的因素是备受关注的问题.本文在全要素生产框架下利用基于投入导向的数据包络分析模型,以水资源、资本和劳动力为投入,以GDP为产出,采用省级数据计算我国1998-2008年水资源利用效率.结果显示,在研究时段内我国水资源利用效率总体上呈现出先下降后上升的趋势,并且从2008年开始水资源利用效率明显下降.在空间上,我国东、中、西部水资源利用效率处于三个明显不同级别,东部省份水资源利用效率最高,平均水平为0.8左右,其次是中部,平均水平为0.6左右,西部水资源利用效率最低,平均水平为0.4左右.进一步的回归分析发现,产业结构、进出口需求以及地区水资源禀赋对水资源利用效率均有显著影响.