公用事业民营化及其环境行为政府管制的研究

公用事业民营化的目的是在公用事业行业引入民间资本和市场竞争模式,提高公共产品服务的产出质量和效率。以电力行业的民营化为例,电力市场对于民营企业的开放能够在很大程度上提高我国电力生产水平．解决当前电力供求关系紧张的问题。但是,大量民营企业介入电力生产,由于其技术落后而导致的资源浪费以及污染物的无序排放给我国的环境保护带来了新的困扰。我们应该在科学发展观和构建社会主义和谐社会的目标指引下,加强政府对于电力企业等公用事业民营化企业生产经营活动的法律管制,同时加强和完善相关的环境立法,达到公用事业积极发展和环境保护目标实现的双赢目标。     

Radiation effects in wild terrestrial vertebrates - the EPIC collection

The paper presents data on radiation effects in populations of wild vertebrate animals inhabiting contaminated terrestrial ecosystems. The data were extracted from the database "Radiation effects on biota", compiled within the framework of the EC Project EPIC (2000-2003). The data collection, based on publications in Russian, demonstrates radiation effects in the areas characterized with high levels of radionuclides (Kyshtym radioactive trace; "spots" of enhanced natural radioactivity in the Komi region of Russia; territories contaminated from the Chernobyl fallout). The data covers a wide range of exposures from acute accidental irradiation to lifetime exposures at relatively low dose rates. Radiation effects include mortality, changes in reproduction, decrease of health, ecological effects, cytogenetic effects, adaptation to radiation, and others. Peculiarities of radiation effects caused by different radionuclides are described, also the severity of effects as they appear in different organisms (e.g. mice, frogs, birds, etc.).     

资本下乡过程中农地流转风险识别、形成机理与管控策略

资本下乡介入农地流转可以实现农村地区人、地、资本的协调发展，但同时也可能引发复杂多样的风险问题，已经成为农村经济社会转型的两难选择。为此，运用归纳演绎法和风险系统分析法，系统剖析了资本下乡过程中农地流转风险及其形成机理。研究结果表明：资本下乡过程中农户农地流转风险可以分为土地权益风险、社会保障风险和土地利用风险3个方面；风险受体为农户、社会经济子系统和土地生态子系统；风险源存在流转阶段差异，约定阶段风险源包括产权边界不清、制度规则模糊、信息不对称、激励政策不合理、政策执行主体能力偏低和准入机制缺失，执行阶段风险源为监管机制缺失和配套措施不完善；各类风险源通过“聚合反应”释放“产权公共领域”、“行为空间”、“合谋”、“选择行为”及“负外部性”等逆境胁迫因子作用于风险受体，引发各类流转风险。因此，通过一系列措施避免产权处于“公共领域”、缩小强势集团“行为空间”、防止权力与资本走向“合谋”、防范利益集团“选择行为”、降低流转“负外部性”可以有效管控资本下乡介入农地流转过程中的各类风险。研究成果可以为引导农地有序流转、保护农民合法权益、促进农村经济社会转型提供参考。 关键词： 资本下乡；农地流转风险；风险管理     

Study on National Sustainable Development Strategy Management Based on Stakeholders Management Theory

Based on the stakeholders management theory,this paper provides a new strategic management method for the National Sustainable Development Strategy.By taking China’s National Sustainable Development Strategy Management as an example,this paper identifies all the stakeholders involved and then assesses stakeholders from two dimensions,namely "Importance" and "Attitude",by which all of the stakeholders are divided into six categories.On this basis,further analysis is made to work out strategic management programme by scheduling the strategic emphases,steps and management countermeasures for different types of stakeholders so as to provide theortical evidence for the practice of National Sustainable Developnent Strategy management.     

高铁背景下城市铁路可达性与空间相互作用格局——以江西省为例

基于改进的可达性测度和引力模型，选取江西省11个设区市作为研究对象，在2010年、2013年和2016年3个时间断面下，测度了江西省城市铁路可达性和空间相互作用强度，并借助GIS工具进行时空格局演变分析。研究发现：(1)从高铁“洼地”到高铁“高地”的江西省，城市可达性呈现以省会南昌为核心、赣北铁路枢纽城市为次中心，向周边蔓延的“中心-外围”模式；城间作用度呈现以主干铁路通道为轴、枢纽城市为节点的“点-轴”模式，向周边辐散并呈现南北梯度差异;(2)高铁开通和区域一体化是提升城市可达性的重要驱动器和加速器，其巨大的时空压缩效应不仅弱化了空间距离对城间作用度的影响，而且促进了其质的飞跃；城市可达性和城间作用度呈现出明显的地带性和“通道效应”，城间列车开行密度是其重要影响因素;(3)高铁的影响范围有限，赣北高铁网络效应强于赣中南，通道内城市可达性趋于均衡，但也拉大了与通道外偏远城市的差距，尚未深度融入省内高铁网络的城市面临被边缘化的风险;(4)全省作用度格局呈现地域分化特征，形成中、北、南3个子系统，城间作用度差异呈现扩大趋势，处于追求“效率”阶段。基于此，江西应加速推进全省铁路和高铁网的建设完善，合理规划铁路站点规模，精准分配城间列车频次；城市应积极主动融入全省高铁网络，加强与周边城市一体化和本地接驳交通建设，提升综合交通可达性和空间作用度；全省应统筹南北梯度发展，稳步推进区域一体化，进一步打破地域隔绝与分化，推动城间均衡融合发展。     

论赤水河流域资源环境的开发与保护

通过对赤水河流域的资源环境综合考察,提出赤水河流域在资源环境方面的价值归结为生态河、美景河、美酒河和英雄河四大特点,具有重要的保护价值。从长江流域水资源开发、利用和保护的角度和视野．建议在长江流域选择1～2条自然生态支流,在开发利用长江水资源的同时,给长江留下1～2条不修大坝的自然生态河流。分析认为,赤水河具备了作为自然生态河流的条件和优势。在此基础上,提出建立具有流域性和综合性为特点的“赤水河流域综合性自然保护区”,保护对象包括赤水河两岸的陆生植物、水生生物特别是鱼类、自然景观和人文景观。从多个层面和角度阐明了建立流域性和综合性自然保护区的意义和作用。分析了当前赤水河流域开发和保护面临的主要矛盾,提出了“赤水河流域综合性自然保护区”的主要内容。最后,提出了国家应加强对赤水河流域的支持力度的具体措施。     

An Interpretation of the Influential Power of China Development

Through the analysis on China’s economic development, utilization of resource environment and soft power, a basic judgment was made of the influence of "China development". The overall influential power of China development on international community was misunderstood. What we see is the role of "China Factor" in different fields. In the process of economic globalization, what economic system of capitalist market has seen is "China’s cheap labor", "China’s loose economic system environment", "earlier abuse of unlimited resource environment", "China’s broad consumption market" and "demographic dividend". In global or Asian financial crisis, what other countries valued was China’s "foreign currency" accumulated over the years. In global governance or crisis management, what international community expected was "China’s obligations and responsibilities" without the right of speech, etc.. All these are the "passive" roles produced by "a single factor" in definite fields. The active and initiative role China will play in international community still needs time and the continuous efforts of several generations. China once was a big country that had significant influential power on the world, and China’s renaissance is a normal process of development of things. What excessive talks about its influential power reflect may be the lack of China’s influence.     

世博会期间上海交通环境承载力调控策略

世博会参观客流规模庞大,且世博园区周边道路设施和自然环境的容量有限,游客自由选择交通模式的结果必然导致自然环境严重超标,人工交通环境不堪重负,因此,必须对世博会期间环境承载力进行调控。而世博会客流属于长期高强度客流,传统的以强制性手段为主的调控策略主要用于短期高强度客流的调控,并不适于世博会。基于局部向全局转换、“强制”向“引导”转换、单因素向双因素转换的调控原则,提出了基于“引导控制”模式的交通环境承载力调控策略：以“引导”手段为主,通过提高公交运行效率、补偿转换交通等措施吸引世博客流向公交方式转移;以“控制”手段为辅,在世博园区周围一定范围内限制社会车辆出入、使用清洁能源车辆,以保证世博客流集散,并降低世博客流对自然环境的影响。     

南方典型花岗岩小流域输沙特性时空对比研究——以衡阳武水流域为例

针对中国南方花岗岩小流域输沙特性问题,以湖南省衡阳县武水流域为研究对象,采用MK突变分析方法、双累计曲线法以及流域对比分析方法,综合分析南方典型花岗岩流域输沙时空规律。结果表明:受花岗岩风化土壤的结构、矿物成分等影响,花岗岩流域相比其他流域具有更高的输沙模数,武水流域的输沙模数值可达同气象条件下的非花岗岩流域的数倍以上。与全国很多流域类似,武水流域输沙模数也呈现出阶段性递减变化特征,这与"大跃进"、"农业学大寨"、"家庭联产承包责任制"、"退耕还林"等政策密切相关。但是与其他很多流域不同的是武水流域输沙模数变化的三阶段,主要是受人类活动所致的流域森林覆被变化的影响,水利工程建设对其影响不大。     

国内外环境安全研究进展述评

环境安全是环境问题日益加剧和恶化而对人类社会构成的安全层次上的威胁。本文研究的目标是从整体上描绘当前环境安全研究的大致轮廓和发展前景。本文将当前国内外环境安全研究划分为三种视角并分别进行了述评：①“传统安全视角”：从传统安全的视角研究环境问题对传统安全的影响;②“狭义环境安全视角”：从安全的视角研究日益恶化的狭义环境问题：③“广义环境安全视角”：从安全的视角研究生态、资源、灾害等领域的广义环境问题。通过比较和评论,认为“狭义环境安全视角”研究针对人类社会面临的“继续生存还是自我毁灭”的“新生存安全问题”,揭示了环境安全研究的核心科学问题,具有重要的研究意义和前景。就目前研究而言。在探讨环境安全基本理论和科学问题的同时。应注重加强在国家环境安全、生态环境安全、突发环境安全事件等领域的技术方法、案例的应用型研究。     

基于ESDA-GWR的浙江县域生产性服务业时空特征及影响因素分析

全球产业结构“服务经济”形态转向宏观背景下，生产性服务业作为服务业重要构成正成为我国经济中低增速“新常态”下城市与区域重构竞合格局、提升位序-规模、参与新国际分工的重要“利器”。以浙江65个县域空间单元为研究对象，基于“定量测度-时空辨识-因素剖析”逻辑脉络，运用数理统计模型方法和GIS空间分析技术，揭示2003~2015年其演变特征、空间效应与影响机理，以期为浙江“县域经济”向“都市区经济”转型发展背景下统筹推进生产性服务业布局与发展实践提供科学依据。研究表明：生产性服务业时空格局表现为低水平均质空间向市辖区首位型城市特别是杭州、宁波等“多中心”的非均衡空间极化演进；其次，体系结构符合Zipf位序-规模分布规律，内部六大行业空间集聚呈现以信息服务业为龙头的“三大梯度”层级分异形态；再则，全局空间存在自相关性但溢出效应微弱且渗透不均衡；最后，其地理过程、格局实践表征被验证为是信息技术水平、人力资本丰裕度、市场发育成熟度等多重因子非线性共轭影响的结果。 关键词： 生产性服务业；探索性空间数据分析；地理加权回归；时空演变；浙江     

Effects of non-human species irradiation after the Chernobyl NPP accident

The area affected by the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in 1986 has become a unique test site where long-term ecological and biological consequences of a drastic change in a range of environmental factors as well as trends and intensity of selection are studied in natural settings. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident for biota varied from an enhanced rate of mutagenesis to damage at the ecosystem level. The review comprehensively brings together key data of the long-term studies of biological effects in plants and animals inhabiting over 20 years the Chernobyl NPP zone. The severity of radiation effects was strongly dependent on the dose received in the early period after the accident. The most exposed phytocenoses and soil animals' communities exhibited dose dependent alterations in the species composition and reduction in biological diversity. On the other hand, no decrease in numbers or taxonomic diversity of small mammals even in the most radioactive habitat was shown. In a majority of the studies, in both plant and animal populations from the Chernobyl zone, in the first years after the accident high increases in mutation rates were documented. In most cases the dose-effect relationships were nonlinear and the mutation rates per unit dose were higher at low doses and dose rates. In subsequent years a decline in the radiation background rate occurred faster than reduction in the mutation rate. Plant and animal populations have shown signs of adaptation to chronic exposure. In adaptation to the enhanced level of exposure an essential role of epigenetic mechanisms of gene expression regulation was shown. Based on the Chernobyl NPP accident studies, in the present review attempts were made to assess minimum doses at which ecological and biological effects were observed.     

可持续发展思想形成的理性基础

对可持续发展进行理性的思考与规范研究 ,对于可持续发展理论的发展与完善 ,对于可持续发展学的构建 ,对于可持续发展战略的科学制定与施行 ,对于规范可持续发展的实证研究 ,对于系统反思可持续发展的实践行为 ,具有重要的意义。本文认为可持续发展思想的形成是以对“人地关系”历史的正确认识、对“发展”涵义的正确认识和对“人类的位置”的正确认识为理性基础的 ,并对此逐一进行了阐释     

南水北调东线工程徐州段河流生境质量评价

河流生境质量评价是河流生态系统健康评价的关键之一。本文评价自然和人为作用下的河流生境质量,以南水北调东线工程徐州段丰县、邳州两市输水通道上的河流为研究对象,结合环境特点,选择了反映河道生境、河岸生境和滨岸带生境的10个指标,给出了每个指标的评价方法和5级标准特征值,建立河流生境质量评价体系,确定评价指标的等级标准,对研究区内16个河段的生境质量状况进行综合评价。结果表明:(1)河流生境质量指数(IRHQ)综合得分介于33~91。根据评价等级划分标准,其中有50%的河段生境质量达到"优"等,其余介于"良"等到"劣"等,河流生境质量整体状况良好。(2)河流生境质量指数与NH_4~+-N、COD、TN呈负相关,与DO呈正相关,多项生境指标也与水质指标具有相关性,表明生境质量与水质的相互影响。     

The Oslo consensus conference on protection of the environment

A number of international organisations are focussing on a revision of radiation protection policy from the existing system which addresses only effects on man, to one which also addresses effects on the wider environment. These developments are expected to effect a wide range of stakeholders, including industry, regulators, scientists, users and the public. With this in mind a "Consensus Conference on Protection of the Environment" was arranged as part of an International Seminar on "Radiation Protection in the 21st Century: Ethical, Philosophical and Environmental Issues" held at the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters. The conference attracted 46 international experts representing various disciplines and affiliations including Environmental Science, Health Physics, Radioecology, Ethics and Philosophy and a wide spectrum of perspectives bearing on the question of radiation protection of the environment. The conference was novel in that the participants were professionals rather than laypersons, and the purpose of the consensus procedure was to identify areas of agreement as an input to the ongoing regulatory developments. The success and innovation of the model is reflected in the significant areas of agreement identified in the final consensus statement, and the subsequent interest at an international level. Participants also noted the need for furthering the debate through ongoing work. Notable issues were the harmonisation of standards for radiation with other environmental stressors, guidance for balancing different interests and values within practical management, and the need for assessment criteria.     

论环境治道变革

环境政策型态是指环境政策采取的存在方式。根据我国环境政策的绩效表现和我国市场化改革的前景 ,我国环境政策应从“政府直控型环境政策”转向“社会制衡型环境政策” ,谓之“环境政策转型” ,主要途径是扩大社会环境权益 ,同时适当简化政府环境管理过程。为了进一步激励社会力量的环境保护行动 ,建议设立“环境权益保护日” ,并建立“全国环境保护协会”。     

Radiation doses of Swiss population from external sources

The outdoor radiation exposure of the population in Switzerland from external sources results from cosmic background as well as from natural and artificial ground radiation. The geographical distribution of these components and of the total dose rate are represented on maps consisting of 2 kmx2 km grid cells. The average dose rate on Swiss territory outdoors is 147 nSv/h (1.29 mSv/a). The distributions are then related to the population density distribution by GIS application. The population is exposed to an average dose rate of 108 nSv/h (0.95 mSv/a) per capita which is just below the threshold for man-made dose rate given by national regulation. The lower value (relative to the country average 147 nSv/h) arises from the fact that most of the population lives north of the Alps where the lithology is dominated by rocks of relatively low radioactivity and where the cosmic radiation is low relative to the Alps.     

长江上游地区（四川重庆段）工业发展与布局调控研究

四川长江上游地区在整个长江经济带建设中占有举足轻重的地位。根据川渝段工业发展现状与问题,对该地区工业发展与布局进行了战略调控研究。首先,在地区工业结构调整方向上提出“先轻后重”的逆向发展模式;其次,在重点行业选择上提出名牌产品＋知名企业＋重点行业的选择模式,以此确定交通机械、电子通讯、化学制造、医药制造、普通机械和饮料制造六大行业及发展方向;第三,在工业布局方面提出“两线一点”的相对集中方案。上述     

城市热场剖面的分形维数计算及其意义研究——以上海中心城区为例

城市热环境是城市中建筑物的不断增加及人类活动、大气状况、地表热量传输等多种因素综合作用的结果,因此城市往往具有极为复杂的热表面。由于热量分配、传输具有一定的复杂性,传统的模型预测与定点观测方法在分析城市热表面空间结构及其形成机制方面存在一定的不足。随着空间信息科学的发展,卫星遥感技术为获取城市热场信息提供了可靠的手段。选用上海市2000年6月14日的Landsat ETM+热波段影像,首先反演城市地表温度,再引入剖面线分形的方法,在GIS的支持下,计算从人民广场出发的8个方向的分维数,并进一步探讨剖面线分形的意义,得到如下结论：城市热表面的剖面线具有明显的分形特征,8个方向的分维数为1.530 0～1.780 6,表征不同剖面线的复杂程度。热场表面剖面线的分维数揭示了3个方面的意义：首先不同的分维数反映热场不同方向上温度变化的复杂程度;其次,相对于城市中心,反映不同方向上城市边界形态的差异性;第三,进一步揭示不同方向上,下垫面土地利用类型空间组合变化的复杂程度。     

可持续发展中的代际关系研究

人类社会的发展是一个世代发展的过程。因此．代际公平是可持续发展的根本所在。根据“代际”一词有不同的理解。“公平”在不同的社会有不同的含义,尤其是对代际公平的含义、原则进行了探讨。代际公平实现的策略是：基于压力-状态-反应的人力资源可持续开发;基于艾奇沃斯方框图分析的自然资源可持续利用;鉴于客观上当代具有优先权,代际之间在环境污染上则采用非合作博弈。