基于神经网络的东北地区秸秆焚烧预测

选取农作物秸秆露天燃烧严重的东北地区,采用人工神经网络的方法,结合卫星火点和气象数据,开展秸秆露天燃烧预测研究.结果表明：人工神经网络预测模型成功验证了松嫩平原地区2015年10月25日~11月15日的秸秆露天燃烧情况,其准确度为67.1%,经过多次试验,在神经网络建模与验证数据配比为80：20时,预测准确度最高,可达69.7%,同时该模型的稳定性较好.而对不同区域,不同时间段的预测研究表明,人工神经网络较适用于长时间序列的预测.就影响因素而言,相对湿度是影响秸秆露天燃烧的最重要因素.本研究结果可为空气质量模式提供火点预测数据,提高其预报预警能力,为区域联防联控政策的制定提供科技支持.     

Vegetation patterns and nature reserve construction in an extremely-arid desert in Anxi,NW China's Gansu Province

Anxi County is located in the northwestern part of the Hexi Corridor in gansu Province and has the sole national level nature reserve of extremely-arid desert in China.Phytosociological methods (Braun-Blanquet,1964) are used to classify plant community types in this area.Eleven are disting uished,including six of deserts,four of oases and one transitional type between deserts and oases.Direct gradient analysis (DCA) is employed to correlate the distribution of plant communities to physiogeographic conditions.This study makes clear that water is the most important ecological factor for the distribution of plant species and communities in this area.The effects of water have been demonstrated in different ways.A vegetation gradient from lower altitude to higher altitude in the southern part of the reserve is driven by a precipitation gradient.The effects of the depth of ground water table contribute to the differentiation of vegetation from desert to oasis in the flat area.In a finer scale,the washed gullies have obviously higher species richness and also higher vegetation cover than the surround gobi surfaces,possibly caused by the effects of floods.The vegetation patterns demonstrate that the area of Anxi County is a complete landscape unit.The range of the current nature reserve is not large enough for the purpose of conserving the unique biodiversity in this area.     

天然林保护与东北地区水患治理方略

从天然林水文功能出发，阐述了东北地区天然林削减及其与洪涝灾害的关系，提出了东北地区水患治理方略。同时建议建立防汛信息系统，提高暴雨和洪水预报准确率以及防洪保险灾后重建。     

中国东北、内蒙古地区茶藨属果树资源的研究

本文对东北、内蒙古地区茶属果树资源进行了调查,初步查明有１９种、２变种、１变型,并对其特征、特性、生境、分布及利用价值进行了研究,总结了驯化栽培的研究结果,提出了开发利用的建议。     

湘东北中生代基性岩脉微量元素地球化学特征及岩石成因

湘东北中生代基性岩脉可以分为煌斑岩和辉绿岩两类 ,前者形成于 136 .6 1Ma ,后者形成于 86 .18Ma ,与华南中生代主要拉张时期相对应。岩石富集LREE ,Eu负异常不明显 ,其形成主要受地幔部分熔融作用制约。早期煌斑岩类微量元素和Sr、Nd同位素总体上具有富集地幔 (EMⅡ型 )洋岛玄武岩 (OIB)特征 ,富集Nd、P、Cs,而K、Rb、Sr、U、Th等富集程度不明显 ,Ta、Nb略有富集 ,具有软流圈地幔上涌地幔热柱玄武岩岩浆源区性质 ,表现出软流圈地幔上涌部分熔融的成岩特点。晚期辉绿岩类表现出Ta、Nb、Ti亏损 ,但LILE并不富集 ,反映地壳混染程度的增强 ,具有大陆拉张带 (裂谷初期 )形成的玄武岩岩浆源区性质 ,为岩石圈地幔部分熔融形成。二者具有不同的岩浆源区性质 ,从早期到晚期岩浆源区向上迁移并致使部分陆壳物质混入 ,反映由热点式拉张到岩石圈伸展 减薄的作用过程。     

Current status and research on E-waste issues in Asia

Rapid economic growth in Asia and the increasing transboundary movement of secondary resources will increasingly require both 3R endeavors (reduce, reuse, recycle) in each country and appropriate control of international material cycles. Recently, managing electrical and electronic waste (E-waste) has become an important target for domestic and international material cycles from the viewpoints of environmental preservation and resource utilization efficiency. To understand the current status of E-waste issues in the context of international material cycles and to discuss the future tasks related to achieving 3R in the region, we organized the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) E-waste Workshop in December 2004. This article reviews past studies on E-waste and briefly describes the topics presented and discussions held at the workshop. The topics at the workshop included E-waste generation, recycling systems, international trade, and environmental impacts. In addition, we discussed various issues such as terminology, current environmental concerns, and possible solutions. Transboundary shipments of E-waste should be conducted taking into consideration the concept of sustainable development. The direction of future research and possible collaborations are also discussed.     

我国东亚飞蝗发生的气候背景及长期预测

我国东亚飞蝗的发生发展与大气环流的变化密切相关。对1952—1999年我国东亚飞蝗的发生面积与大气环流的74项特征指标值进行了相关研究。结果表明，上一年9月到当年4月大西洋副高面积、强度、脊线位置、北界，上一年9月、10月西藏高原指数，当年1月、2月、5月亚洲区极涡面积。北半球1月极涡面积，亚洲3月纬向环流指数以及亚洲5月经向环流指数与我国蝗虫发生面积相关明显。其中大西洋副热带高压对我国东亚飞蝗发生的影响主要是通过影响秋冬季节蝗卵的孵化和越冬期间的地面温度，从而影响蝗卵基数和孵化为成虫的数量，进而影响着我国东亚飞蝗发生、发展和危害情况的变化。通过上述对蝗虫发生有明显影响的大气环流特征值进行回归分析，结果表明。上年9月和当年4月大西洋副高脊线、3月大西洋副高北界、上年9月西藏高原指数、5月亚洲区极涡面积和3月亚洲纬向环流指数与发生面积拟合较好，说明这些大气环流特征值的强弱是决定东亚飞蝗发生的关键因素。     

Inverse modeling of Asian Rn flux using surface air Rn concentration

When used with an atmospheric transport model, the ²²²Rn flux distribution estimated in our previous study using soil transport theory caused underestimation of atmospheric ²²²Rn concentrations as compared with measurements in East Asia. In this study, we applied a Bayesian synthesis inverse method to produce revised estimates of the annual ²²²Rn flux density in Asia by using atmospheric ²²²Rn concentrations measured at seven sites in East Asia. The Bayesian synthesis inverse method requires a prior estimate of the flux distribution and its uncertainties. The atmospheric transport model MM5/HIRAT and our previous estimate of the ²²²Rn flux distribution as the prior value were used to generate new flux estimates for the eastern half of the Eurasian continent dividing into 10 regions.The ²²²Rn flux densities estimated using the Bayesian inversion technique were generally higher than the prior flux densities. The area-weighted average ²²²Rn flux density for Asia was estimated to be 33.0 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹, which is substantially higher than the prior value (16.7 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹). The estimated ²²²Rn flux densities decrease with increasing latitude as follows: Southeast Asia (36.7 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹); East Asia (28.6 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹) including China, Korean Peninsula and Japan; and Siberia (14.1 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹). Increase of the newly estimated fluxes in Southeast Asia, China, Japan, and the southern part of Eastern Siberia from the prior ones contributed most significantly to improved agreement of the model-calculated concentrations with the atmospheric measurements. The sensitivity analysis of prior flux errors and effects of locally exhaled ²²²Rn showed that the estimated fluxes in Northern and Central China, Korea, Japan, and the southern part of Eastern Siberia were robust, but that in Central Asia had a large uncertainty.     

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.     

中亚地区气溶胶时空分布及其对云和降水的影响

中亚地区属干旱半干旱气候区,是水资源缺乏最严重的地区之一,也是全球沙尘气溶胶贡献度较大的区域.利用MODIS气溶胶和云资料以及校准后的TRMM降水数据,可从宏观角度分析中亚地区气溶胶、云、降水的时空分布特征,研究气溶胶与云和降水之间的相互影响关系.结果表明:1中亚地区年平均气溶胶光学厚度表现为春季(0~1)夏季(0~0.8)冬季(0~0.42)秋季(0~0.38),2002—2013年间整体呈现增加趋势;冬季COD量值明显高于其他3个季节,12年间整体表现出下降趋势,夏季变化较小,增幅为-0.876%,冬季最大,增幅为-1.713%;云水路径的区域性和季节性变化较为明显,整体处于降低趋势,其中秋季的新疆塔里木盆地变化最为显著,年变化为-6.607%;利用实测降水数据对TRMM月降水数据进行校准处理,可有效提升数据精度,新疆境内夏季降水占年降水量的比重较大,春、秋次之,咸海地区降水量年内分配相对较均匀,季节性差异不明显,中亚干旱区作为一个整体,降水呈现出增加趋势,其中,冬季降水的增加趋势最明显.2气溶胶光学厚度与云光学厚度呈负相关;与云滴粒子有效半径关系复杂,受水汽影响较大,在云层含水量较低的情况下,云滴粒子与气溶胶光学厚度呈负相关,而在云层含水量较高的情况下,二者呈正相关;云水路径随着气溶胶光学厚度的增加而减小,随AOD的变化的敏感程度在秋季最高,冬季最低.3气溶胶和降水关系复杂,整体来看,中亚地区气溶胶抑制降水.