反舰导弹射击精度评估研究

分析了反舰导弹射击精度评估领域命中概率与圆概率偏差、命中区域圆概率偏差的分歧,提出了制导概率椭圆偏差和制导概率圆偏差的新概念。将反舰导弹飞行末段雷达导引头波束覆盖区域与打击目标水面舰艇轮廓大小进行了比对,根据比对结果划分为雷达导引头波束完全覆盖、部分覆盖和内嵌于目标三个等级,对应提出了命中概率评估方法、制导概率椭圆偏差评估方法和制导概率圆偏差评估方法。通过反舰导弹对快艇、驱护舰和航母三类目标射击精度评估算例验证了反舰导弹射击精度评估总体方案的全面性和三类方法的适用性。     

高职高专学生就业服务指导

高职高专教育是以就业为导向的教育,专业人才培养方案要与社会需求相一致。除了加强就业指导之外,还应采取多种手段对学生进行正确的就业观、择业观教育,全方位多渠道实现毕业生与人才市场沟通,引导毕业生顺利就业。     

绿色“一带一路”建设研究及建议

生态环保是"一带一路"建设的重要内容。在2017年5月14日召开的"一带一路"国际合作高峰论坛系列成果清单包括《关于推动绿色"一带一路"建设的指导意见》、《"一带一路"生态环境保护合作规划》、"一带一路"生态环保大数据服务平台建设、"一带一路"绿色发展国际联盟建立等四项。为更好地理解和推动执行,本文全面进行了分析,并提出下一步推动绿色"一带一路"工作需要解决的关键问题和建议。     

Simulating the fate and transport of TCE from groundwater to indoor air

This work provides an exploratory analysis on the relative importance of various factors controlling the fate and transport of volatile organic contaminants (in this case, TCE) from a DNAPL source zone located below the water table and into the indoor air. The analysis is conducted using the multi-phase compositional model CompFlow Bio, with the base scenario problem geometry reminiscent of a field experiment conducted by Rivett [Rivett, M.O., (1995), Soil–gas signatures from volatile chlorinated solvents: Borden field experiments. Groundwater, 33(1), 84–98.] at the Borden aquifer where groundwater was observed to transport a contaminant plume a substantial distance without vertical mass transport of the contaminant across the capillary fringe and into the vadose zone. Results for the base scenario model indicate that the structure of the permeability field was largely responsible for deflecting the groundwater plume upward towards the capillary fringe, permitting aqueous phase diffusion to transport the TCE into the vadose zone. Alternative permeability realizations, generated as part of a Monte Carlo simulation process, at times deflected the groundwater plume downwards causing the extended thickness of the saturated zone to insulate the vadose zone from exposure to the TCE by upward diffusive transport. Comparison of attenuation coefficients calculated using the CompFlow Bio and Johnson and Ettinger [Johnson, P.C. and Ettinger, R.A., (1991), Heuristic model for predicting the intrusion rate of contaminant vapors into buildings. Environmental Science and Technology, 25, 1445–1452.] heuristic model exhibited fortuitous agreement for the base scenario problem geometry, with this agreement diverging for the alternative permeability realizations as well as when parameters such as the foundation slab fracture aperture, the indoor air pressure drop, the capillary fringe thickness, and the infiltration rate were varied over typical ranges.     

大型购物中心人员疏散引导模拟优化研究

紧急情况下,大型公共场所人员在疏散过程中往往慌不择路,导致疏散设施使用不均、疏散路径拥堵、疏散难度加剧。针对该问题,以出口和楼梯等疏散资源得到充分利用为目标,提出疏散路径优化的基本思想,运用EVACNET4建立建筑网络疏散模型,并以某大型购物中心为实例对象,开展“无路径优化、无疏散引导”和“有路径优化、有疏散引导”2种情景下的疏散过程模拟及对比分析,通过引导疏散实现路径优化方案和疏散效率的提升。研究结果表明:有路径优化和疏散引导的方案可实现更短的疏散时间、更均衡的出口利用率。     

试谈突发环境污染事件的舆论引导

突发环境污染事件的舆论引导,是政府特别是环保部门应对突发环境污染事件,降低其对环境造成严重污染和破坏,减少对人身和财产造成重大损失的重要举措。本文全面分析了突发环境污染事件舆论引导工作的现实意义、基本要求,并提出建立突发环境污染事件的舆论引导机制。     

Predictors of health care provider anticipatory guidance provision for older drivers

Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of health care provider (HCP) driving safety/cessation-related anticipatory guidance provision and predictors of driving safety-related anticipatory guidance provision by HCPs.

Methods: HCPs in several central/upper Midwest states were surveyed about frequency of anticipatory guidance provision (n = 265).

Results: More than half of HCPs stated that they frequently or always provide driving safety/cessation-related anticipatory guidance to patients aged 85 or older, 38.7% provided this guidance to patients aged 75 to 84, and 13.7% to patients aged 65 to 74. Predictors of driving safety/cessation-related anticipatory guidance provision differed by patient age. For patients aged 65–74, HCP personal experience with a motor vehicle crash (either the HCP themselves or a friend/family member) was significant in predicting anticipatory guidance provision. However, for patients aged 75 and older, significant predictors included HCP rural practice, HCP age, and percentage of HCP patients who were older adults.

Conclusion: HCP counseling provision related to driving issues differs by patient age and several HCP characteristics, including HCP rurality, age, and personal experience with motor vehicle crashes. Because aging results in physical and mental changes that affect driving and can be identified by HCPs, HCPs are in a position to counsel patients on the potential impacts of aging on the act of driving. Future research should examine the reasons for the differences in anticipatory guidance provision found in this study.     

可持续发展战略的环境保护行动

从可持续发展论释义,以及以污染现实反证,提出环境是可持续发展的基础,保护环境就是保护人类社会赖以生存和发展的自然资源,自然资源是发展的根本条件的论点,进而提出环境保护工作的二项基本任务。依此提出可持续发展战略的环境保护行动框架意见。     

我国标准气体应用于涉VOCs重点行业监测管理中的不足及建议

随着我国对VOCs监测控制的持续推进,VOCs标准气体的配套应用及其管理思路也面临着新要求和挑战。本文通过梳理我国VOCs类标准气体对涉VOCs企业污染物监测和管理支撑的现状,指出了VOCs监测管理中对标准气体的应用要求尚待细化、已有VOCs标准气体应用不够充分、VOCs标准气体对排放标准实施的精准支撑作用不足等问题。在探究现状与问题的基础上,提出进一步细化VOCs排放监测对标准气体应用要求、加强企业自行监测中VOCs标准气体的应用指导、加强短缺标准气体的研制与应用的建议。     

安全信息学视域下安全舆情演化及引导策略研究*

为正确引导和控制负面安全舆情,基于安全信息学与舆情理论,利用事故树分析方法研究安全舆情演化过程,计算负面安全舆情最小割集、最小径集和结构重要度,提出安全舆情引导方法。结果表明:利用最小割集得到负面安全舆情产生原因组合,利用最小径集得到避免负面安全舆情产生最低限度事件组合,通过结构重要度得到系统改进重点及优化顺序;在事故树中增加安全舆情审核和引导组织、安全事件亲自确认、专业意见领袖3个最小径集,以期减少负面安全舆情,促进公共安全。