中国超大城市碳排放达峰的影响因素及组合情景预测——基于门限-STIRPAT模型的研究

城市是中国碳排放的重要来源,而超大城市的碳达峰研究对国内其他城市和全国能否实现碳达峰目标具有重要的现实意义.以北京、上海、广州、深圳、天津和重庆等6个超大城市为研究对象,能源强度为门限变量,建立门限-STIRPAT模型,首先确定6个超大城市碳排放的驱动因素,然后对27种情景下的各城市碳排放达峰进行预测.研究结果表明:①人口、人均GDP和能源强度对各城市碳排放起到正向促进效应,人口的影响效应最大,其次是能源强度,人均GDP对碳排放的影响最小.②能源强度对二氧化碳排放的影响呈阶段性变化特征.③北京、上海和重庆在高能源强度下降率的情景下,已经达峰;天津、除最宽松的高-高-高情景外的广州和深圳会在2030年前实现达峰.如果能源强度以中速率下降,6个城市碳排放不能保证一定能在2030年前达峰.如果能源强度以低速率下降,6个城市均不能在2030年前达峰.本研究有利于明确超大城市碳排放的影响因素,对其他城市尽快实现碳排放达峰具有借鉴意义,为全国实现碳达峰目标提供可行的研究思路.     

京津冀区域PM2.5污染相互输送特征

基于CAMx-PSAT空气质量模型,对2015年京津冀区域PM_(2.5)污染及相互输送特征进行定量模拟,建立了京津冀13个城市的PM_(2.5)传输矩阵.结果表明,在年均尺度上京津冀区域PM_(2.5)以本地污染源贡献为主(21.49%~68.74%),传输贡献为辅,其中区域内传输贡献约为13.31%~54.62%,区外贡献约为13.32%~45.02%.PM_(2.5)传输特征呈现显著的时空差异性,区域中部城市唐山、北京、天津、保定和石家庄PM_(2.5)受本地贡献主导,在冬季尤其明显,而受传输影响较大的城市多分布在区域边界且在南部集中.区内作为汇的城市有廊坊、衡水、承德、秦皇岛和邢台,作为源的城市有天津、沧州、唐山、北京、石家庄和邯郸,张家口和保定对区内城市输出和受区内输入基本持平.典型城市分析证明城市间PM_(2.5)污染交互影响,北京与廊坊、保定、承德、天津和沧州等城市之间,天津与廊坊、唐山、北京、沧州和保定等城市之间,石家庄与邢台、衡水、保定、邯郸和廊坊之间均存在显著的PM_(2.5)相互输送.     

京津冀地区城市环境空气颗粒物及其元素特征分析

于2013年四个季度,选择京津冀3个主要城市和1个对照点,以及4个全国大气背景站,同步采集环境空气颗粒物PM10和PM2.5样品,采用微波消解ICP-MS法分析样品中的68种元素.结果表明,京津冀3个城市四个季度PM10和PM2.5均超过国家二级标准限值,且采暖季高于非采暖季.全年PM2.5/PM10比值大于0.5,细颗粒物污染占主导.元素在PM2.5中所占比例高于PM10.而背景点颗粒物浓度低于标准限值,远低于城市点,且四个季节变化不大.在检出的57种元素中, Na、Mg、Al、S、K、Ca、Fe、Zn在0.1~10 μg/m3之间,P、Ti、Mn、Ni、Cu、Ba、Pb在10~100ng/m3之间,其他含量较低元素如Cd、Co、Ge、Ga、Zr、Sr、V等在0.01~10ng/m3之间.元素S、Na、K、Al、Fe、Mg、Ca等含量大于1%,P、Zn、Pb、Cu、Ba等其他元素含量介于0.1%~1%.富集因子分析结果提示,K、Ca、Cr、Fe、Cu、Zn、As、Cd和Pb等9种元素主要来源于人为污染,采暖季与非采暖季富集因子比值在1.1~3.5之间.因子分析提示,燃煤、工业污染源、燃油等是颗粒物污染的主要贡献因素.     

超大城市新粒子生成事件对云凝结核贡献分析

高浓度气溶胶在受人类活动影响的污染地区种类和组成非常复杂,因此,其环境和气候效应引起了广泛关注,但在超大城市背景下气溶胶粒子活化成为云凝结核的过程与边界层的相互作用尚不完全清楚.本研究基于北京（BJ）、上海（SH）、广州（GZ）的观测数据,选取3个城市的春季和冬季（北京冬季11月和广州冬季12月的连续观测,以及上海春季4月的加强观测）集成观测气溶胶数据和云凝结核同期观测的变化并结合其他污染物演化规律,对比分析了新粒子生成事件和环境变量演化对3个超大城市云凝结浓度形成的影响.结果表明,以用云凝结核（CCN）浓度与气溶胶（CN）数浓度的比值作为3个城市的活化率,北京CCN数浓度约为（500±200） #·cm^-3,CN最大浓度小于（1.0×10⁴±0.3×10⁴） #·cm^-3,活化率约为0.07%.上海CCN数浓度为（1500±500） #·cm^-3,CN最大浓度小于（98.0×10⁴±0.3×10⁴） #·cm^-3,最大活化率为0.05%.广州CCN数浓度为（150±30） #·cm^-3,CN最大浓度为（24.0×10³±0.3×10³） #·cm^-3,最大活化率为0.03%.本文旨在阐明气溶胶物理化学性质（粒子谱、化学成分、排放源等的时空演变特征）在不同排放源和大气边界层条件的影响下,造成不同类型的排放和输送过程对气溶胶活化率的影响,对比发现新粒子生成（NPF）期间CCN数浓度明显高于非新粒子生成（Non-NPF）时期,证明NPF发生时对CCN的活化率（AR）有显著的提升,在过饱和度SS=0.1%下,北京达到峰值在4×10^-3附近,广州的最大值约为17×10^-4,上海的最大值为3×10^-3.且在NPF期间气溶胶活化率显著增加,3个超大城市在NPF和Non-NPF期间,CCN数浓度与活化率的关系在上海尤其明显,化学成分包括有机物、硝酸盐和硫酸盐等物质也会影响超大城市地区气溶胶粒子的活化率,对比发现3个城市在NPF期间CCN数浓度和活化率都明显区别于其他时段.发现气溶胶的物理和化学性质以及与活化率的直接关系,可用以评估新粒子生成对区域大气环境（如霾）的影响,并估计气溶胶贡献为CCN的间接气候影响.     

中国典型城市群PM2.5污染特征研究进展

为进一步梳理近年来我国城市区域大气PM_2.5污染防治方面的研究成果,基于我国31个城市PM_2.5污染现状,以城市群为视角,总结了京津冀城市群、长三角城市群与川渝城市群PM_2.5组成与污染特征,分析了PM_2.5及其含碳气溶胶、水溶性无机离子、地壳元素等的整体特征,并在城市群间进行对比分析.结果表明:①3个城市群的ρ（PM_2.5）高低顺序依次为京津冀城市群>川渝城市群>长三角城市群,长距离传输使PM_2.5污染成为京津冀城市群、长三角城市群与川渝城市群面临的共同问题.②3个城市群的PM_2.5中均以SNA和OC为主,尽管ρ（PM_2.5）水平有下降趋势,但个别污染物（如SNA）略呈上升趋势.③京津冀城市群与川渝城市群的ρ（OC）接近,并且均高于长三角城市群的80%,较高的ρ（OC）/ρ（EC）反映我国城市群普遍存在SOC污染.④各城市群PM_2.5监测网（如监测时间和采样方法）发展水平迥异,城市群之间的相互影响和传输机制尚不清楚.建议今后的研究向以下几个方面扩展:①对城郊乡村等大气背景点,以及水库、湖泊等地化循环的重要源汇区域开展研究.②针对同一区域开展采样时段更长且研究方法和分析手段上保持一致的研究.③借用国外经验公式时需考虑我国国情,对基础研究方法开展一系列优化,建立符合我国国情的标准化研究方法.      

京津冀典型城市大气颗粒物化学成分同步观测研究

为解析京津冀城市群大气颗粒物化学组成,寻求区域大气污染协同防控方法,分别在北京、天津、唐山和保定4个典型城市和兴隆大气本底对照区设置观测站点,使用环境颗粒物在线监测仪和安德森撞击式9级采样器获取不同粒径段大气颗粒物的质量浓度并分析其化学成分.结果表明,上述4个城市站点PM10年均值（2009年6月～2010年5月）分别...     

Public participation mechanisms and sustainable policy-making: a case study analysis of Mexico City's Plan Verde

Mexico City has gained an international reputation for its ground-breaking approach to sustainability as a result of policies implemented during the Marcelo Ebrard administration (2006–2012). In this paper, we examine the development and implementation of the Plan Verde de la Ciudad de México (Green Plan), the 15-year policy aimed to transform Mexico City into the most progressive and sustainable city in Latin America. Key to the plan's success, it was claimed, would be the active participation of stakeholders from all levels of society. Drawing on documentary material and interviews, we argue that whilst the plan did have a significant impact on the environmental sustainability of the megacity, it failed to include effective citizen participation mechanisms. As predicted by several members of the Green Plan Monitoring and Assessment Board, this lack of representation, alongside other failures, appears to have facilitated the premature demise of the plan under the new administration.     

Factor decomposition of carbon emissions in Chinese megacities

In this article, per capita urban carbon emissions were decomposed into manufacturing,transportation, and construction sectors using logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)method. This new decomposition method can provide information about specific drivers of carbon emissions, including urban growth and resident living standards, rather than general demographic and economic factors identified by traditional methods. Using four Chinese megacities(Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing) as case studies, we analyzed the factors that influenced per capita carbon emissions from 2010 to 2015. The results showed that per capita carbon emissions increased in Tianjin and Chongqing whereas decreased in Beijing and Shanghai, and that manufacturing was a key driving force. In these four megacities,energy conservation strategies were successfully implemented despite poor energy structure optimization during 2010–2015. Development of manufacturing and improvement of resident living standards in the cities led to an increase in carbon emissions. The unique dual-core urban form of Tianjin might mitigate the increased carbon emissions caused by the transportation sector. Reductions in carbon emissions could be achieved by further optimizing energy structures, limiting the number of private cars, and controlling per capita construction.     

Characterizing and Contextualizing the Water Challenges of Megacities

We characterize and compare water challenges confronting the 28 megacities of the world in 2014. Relying on existing literature and diverse primary data sources, we present a unique portrait at a global scale of the water implications of the rapid growth in megacities. We find that differentiating and analyzing the complexity of megacities' water problems based on geographic contexts, historical development trajectories, urban population growth rates, and forms of urban expansion helps explain the nature of the various water management problems they confront. Two governance features also shed light on megacity water challenges: fragmentation resulting from forms of megacity urban expansion; and, urban dualism resulting from contradictions between historical and cultural legacies and the rise of global engineering and technological norms for water management. The increasing vulnerability of megacities to climate change poses risks as well as opportunities for a more collective response to address this global phenomenon. Our analysis raises important questions and offers guidance about the future trajectories of many more large cities around the world that are on their way to becoming megacities.